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speculawyer · Apr 18, 2009

Leondexter said:
The size of the installed base doesn't have nearly the effect that people seem to think it should. .

If the size of the installed base was the be-all end-all, we'd all still be playing PS2 games.

nextgeneration · Apr 18, 2009

Leondexter said:
The size of the installed base doesn't have nearly the effect that people seem to think it should. At launch, a good game can sell to a very high percentage of buyers. The same can be true for a poor-selling console years later. But a market-leading console never sees high penetration for its games; by definition, the makeup of its demographic is too diverse. As a console sells more units, its owners buy a broader range of games, they don't all buy the same ones.

It's proven time and time again. Look at extremely popular games and their sequels years later that have double or triple the userbase to sell to: the sequels are often lucky to even match the sales of their predecessors. They never outsell them on a percent of install base criteria.

You can actually argue the opposite: that a niche console is more likely to have high sales (especially initially) of a key game, because all its owners are practically the same person, all waiting with cash in hand, just like they did when the console itself launched.

One of the best posts and completely dead on.

GhaleonEB · Apr 18, 2009

Sleeker said:
Probably wont receive as much marketing though.

Less than Halo 3, but a lot more than Halo Wars. It will move a few million in the first couple months.

donny2112 · Apr 18, 2009

Opiate said:
I'm not shocked at legs on Wii/DS titles as a general concept, schuelma, but you have to admit the profound nature of those legs is pretty amazing.

CoD4 DS was not well received and is a "hardcore" game. Even on the DS, would anyone have been surprised by fairly truncated legs?

And yet, it has instead gone on to do 13x its original month's sales. I know Wii/DS legs are very good, but that is incredible for such a game.

In the U.S., tons of games go on to chart for a long, long time. Vice City sold ~5x its first month on PS2. Fire Emblem: Sacred Stones sold ~7x its first month on GBA. And, of course, you have games like Brain Age which go on to sell >30x their first month sales. In Japan, first week is usually a huge factor in LTD sales. That still happens in the U.S. (e.g. Halo 2/3 sold > 50% of their LTD in the first month), but it's more the exception than the rule.

That said, 13x is definitely still impressive. CoD4/WaW were both well received, to my understanding, though. n-Space did a good job with those two games.

Dash Kappei said:
donny, is that really you?! Quick, someone check if his account has been hijacked

This is not the first time or first thread that I've made that expectation known in. :lol

* Wii's userbase will be ~21 million in the U.S. at the end of June.
* Wii-only owners are hugely underserved in the FPS department.
* For multi-console owners, The Conduit can be worth picking up to see if Wii FPS controls can really make a big difference.
* The WaW users will be way overdue for a followup game.

I expect 1+ million LTD after the eventual Player's Choice release, as well.

Chumly said:
Donny there is no way in hell The Conduit is going to do 300k in June. MAYBE if its lucky it will do that in June and July

I certainly hope not. As I said, in my opinion, that would be terrible. :lol

Yes Boss! said:
I'm surprised you are expecting that from a June release. I'd be very surprised if it even hits 100K in its first month.

Games > 300K

Jun-08 - 7
Jun-07 - 1
Jun-06 - 2
Jun-05 - 1

> 300K can certainly happen. However, I could also very well be wrong on my prediction. :lol

Alcibiades · Apr 18, 2009

Tiktaalik said:
The rough first weeks sales for Madworld and quick price drops might indicate that the Wii audience is price sensitive and Sega knows it. I expect Madworld to sell in the long term, but Sega might have just been wringing cash out of the super hardcore at the initial price point and will plan to make up the rest at a casual price point.

true enough... MadWorld may have a wealth of talent but in the end it's no expensive blockbuster on the scale of something like Mario Galaxy or Smash Bros... full price for a 5-6 hour game could have killed some enthusiasm... I'm also guessing most of the hardcore Wii owners (the audience most likely to have warmed to this game) have purchased component cables and are disappointed about the non-480p as well (probably this is more of an impact in Europe)...

We should definitely be happy it sold more than The Black Knight because at least that means value and quality mean something (if not at all times) to the Wii audience. I don't think we've had an instance yet of some really crappy game selling really, really well at $50 (usually it's $20 bargain bin crap casuals and parents get taken in for)...

GC|Simon · Apr 18, 2009

When we talk about hardcore games for Wii, anyone know LTD numbers for Deadly Creatures?

cw_sasuke · Apr 18, 2009

gkrykewy said:
holy isht at 500k for COD4 on DS.

AniHawk · Apr 18, 2009

GC|Simon said:
When we talk about hardcore games for Wii, anyone know LTD numbers for Deadly Creatures?

It's the laughing smiley in numerical form.

Thunder Monkey · Apr 18, 2009

AniHawk said:
It's the laughing smiley in numerical form.

So... short with no legs.

grandjedi6 · Apr 18, 2009

AniHawk said:
It's the laughing smiley in numerical form.

Code:

1            123456          1
2            7    8          2 
3            9    0          3
4            1    2          4
567890       345678          5678890

Thunder Monkey · Apr 18, 2009

grandjedi6 said:

That's just creeping me out Jon Stewart.

ViperVisor · Apr 18, 2009

To be a superficial marketing wonk for a second.

The Conduit is a horrible name.

They tried to make up for it with the box being badass. I did some work on a pic of it where 113600 is the area of the cover.

I added up the area of the gun on the cover and it ends up being 12% of the cover. The space the name takes up is 10%.

HocusPocus · Apr 18, 2009

Amazing that this far in the generation that Microsoft is still in a positive situation monthly against the PS3. I would have never thought that in 2005.

DNF · Apr 18, 2009

SonicMegaDrive · Apr 18, 2009

DNF said:
Numbers posted in this thread so far:

10. Sonic & the Black Knight | Sega of America | < 66,000

Ah, there's still 66,000 of these people left.

With each successive failure, the sales figures dip lower and lower.

Keep 'em coming, Sega!

Prine · Apr 18, 2009

WTF Halo 3 is back? Wow!

Dabanton · Apr 18, 2009

Prine said:
WTF Halo 3 is back? Wow!

Yeah i noticed that yesterday,what could have caused the bump?

GarthVaderUK · Apr 18, 2009

Dabanton said:
Yeah i noticed that yesterday,what could have caused the bump?

Awesomeness.

FFChris · Apr 18, 2009

Dabanton said:
Yeah i noticed that yesterday,what could have caused the bump?

New map pack.

Sleeker · Apr 18, 2009

Res evil 5 pushing just shy of a million in a month is fantastic.

I personally haven't been paying attention long enough to remember sales of a game that high for the 1st month.

Koren · Apr 18, 2009

SonicMegaDrive said:
Ah, there's still 66,000 of these people left.

With each successive failure, the sales figures dip lower and lower.

With Secret Ring (which I found very good even if I think they shouldn't have put degraded control at the very beginning), I've nearly bought Black Knight without ever looking to reviews. I'm happy I haven't done it, though.

Rolf NB · Apr 18, 2009

AniHawk said:
It's the laughing smiley in numerical form.

101 copies?

CiSTM · Apr 18, 2009

"Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare for Nintendo DS is a good example. In its first month (November 2007), it sold only 36,000. To date, it has sold through nearly 500,000."

Holy shit cakes ! I would have never expected such sales from CoD4 on DS. I am baffeled.

Rolf NB · Apr 18, 2009

In all likelihood CoD4DS isn't really "a good" example, as in representative of anything in particular, but the highest outlier.

ksamedi · Apr 18, 2009

Those Madworld sales are actually pretty good. Its about the same as the No More Heroes opening and I doubt Madworld has a larger budget than NMH. Its a 5 hour game. It will probably have legs too.

Haunted · Apr 18, 2009

ksamedi said:
Those Madworld sales are actually pretty good. Its about the same as the No More Heroes opening and I doubt Madworld has a larger budget than NMH. Its a 5 hour game. It will probably have legs too.

Let's not go overboard here.

ksamedi · Apr 18, 2009

Haunted said:
Let's not go overboard here.

Fixed that for you, I heard some people finished it in 3 hours though.

farnham · Apr 18, 2009

HocusPocus said:
Amazing that this far in the generation that Microsoft is still in a positive situation monthly against the PS3. I would have never thought that in 2005.

well the ps3 is the distant third place.. so its no wonder that the second place console is in a good situation against the third place console

SEGAmaniaco · Apr 18, 2009

GRAN TURISMO 5 WILL BE THE SAVIOR

Kenka · Apr 18, 2009

Shit this thread is huge.

I am still wondering where is jvm and his analysis. I can't wait to know more about the current state of software on Wii.

manueldelalas · Apr 18, 2009

SEGAmaniaco said:
GRAN TURISMO 5 WILL BE THE SAVIOR

It's by far the biggest and most important IP Sony has, that's for sure. We will see in 2011 if it can save the PS3 or not.

Kenka · Apr 18, 2009

SEGAmaniaco said:
GRAN TURISMO 5 WILL BE THE SAVIOR

I feel like jerking off. Don't ask why though.

Sadist · Apr 18, 2009

Kenka said:
Shit this thread is huge.

I am still wondering where is jvm and his analysis. I can't wait to know more about the current state of software on Wii.

Doesn't he posts those on Mondays after the NPD release?

onipex · Apr 18, 2009

border said:
Yeah, nobody likes that Gods of War game or the Ninja's Gaydens.

Even those points God of War has Greek mythology and Ninja Gayden has ninjas and those are things people can relate too. I think that helps when it comes to sales. Those games are also well know IPs. When was the last time a new beat'em up IP has done well?

With that said I think the same will continue to sell on word of mouth. Most Wii owners I know don't keep up with the new games coming out for the console unless it is a Nintendo game. That includes people who said they never owned a game console before.

Scrubking · Apr 18, 2009

ksamedi said:
Those Madworld sales are actually pretty good. Its about the same as the No More Heroes opening and I doubt Madworld has a larger budget than NMH. Its a 5 hour game. It will probably have legs too.

I'm willing to bet that it has already surpassed expectations.

This is not the first time or first thread that I've made that expectation known in.

* Wii's userbase will be ~21 million in the U.S. at the end of June.
* Wii-only owners are hugely underserved in the FPS department.
* For multi-console owners, The Conduit can be worth picking up to see if Wii FPS controls can really make a big difference.
* The WaW users will be way overdue for a followup game.

I expect 1+ million LTD after the eventual Player's Choice release, as well.

Seriously. They are already starting clans for this game and it's still over 2 months away.

Jocchan · Apr 18, 2009

SEGAmaniaco said:
GRAN TURISMO 5 WILL BE THE SAVIOR

Only if it gets ported to the Xbox Zune.

Rolf NB · Apr 18, 2009

onipex said:
Even those points God of War has Greek mythology and Ninja Gayden has ninjas and those are things people can relate too. I think that helps when it comes to sales. Those games are also well know IPs. When was the last time a new beat'em up IP has done well?

This is exactly why I'm looking forward to Bayonetta sales. I'll gladly repeat myself and predict at least 3x Madworld sales in its first NPD month, which now turned out to be a paltry 210k as the low bar. Do quote me on that. It's going to happen.

It will finally be the end of all these excuses and maybe, maybe, some of the core gamers holding out with Wii only so far will start listening to reason.

edit: also agree that The Conduit will sell well, same 210k+ bar for me.

Big-E · Apr 18, 2009

Wow, the show topped the PS2 and PSP lists too. Must have been a pretty good money maker for Sony I think which is awesome because I would hate to lose the Show next year.

Stinkles · Apr 18, 2009

Dabanton said:
Yeah i noticed that yesterday,what could have caused the bump?

Maps and new console owners. And teh awesome. It's Microsoft's Halo Killer.

Chris FOM · Apr 18, 2009

For some perspective, can anybody compare MadWorld's sales to God Hand's, which was then-Clover-now-Platinum Games' last 3D brawler? And if MadWorld has already outsold God Hand's LTD (as I suspect it has) when God Hand was on the PS2, how much higher could expectations have reasonably been set?

SLYspyda · Apr 18, 2009

bcn-ron said:
In all likelihood CoD4DS isn't really "a good" example, as in representative of anything in particular, but the highest outlier.

13X is hardly the highest outlier, what about Brain Age, Or Mario Kart DS, with 30X and above outliers?

Rolf NB · Apr 18, 2009

SLYspyda said:
13X is hardly the highest outlier, what about Brain Age, Or Mario Kart DS, with 30X and above outliers?

Need more qualifiers. Can't decide between "3rd party" and "off-chart". Might use both.

farnham · Apr 18, 2009

bcn-ron said:
This is exactly why I'm looking forward to Bayonetta sales. I'll gladly repeat myself and predict at least 3x Madworld sales in its first NPD month, which now turned out to be a paltry 210k as the low bar. Do quote me on that. It's going to happen.

It will finally be the end of all these excuses and maybe, maybe, some of the core gamers holding out with Wii only so far will start listening to reason.

edit: also agree that The Conduit will sell well, same 210k+ bar for me.

really..? how much did sega hack and slash games on the next gen consoles sell this gen..?

shadowsdarknes · Apr 18, 2009

Scrubking said:
Seriously. They are already starting clans for this game and it's still over 2 months away.

So?

markatisu · Apr 18, 2009

Chris FOM said:
For some perspective, can anybody compare MadWorld's sales to God Hand's, which was then-Clover-now-Platinum Games' last 3D brawler? And if MadWorld has already outsold God Hand's LTD (as I suspect it has) when God Hand was on the PS2, how much higher could expectations have reasonably been set?

I asked this a few pages back and would like to know the same thing, interesting to compare the two since the PS2 had no problem selling mature games

McValdemar · Apr 18, 2009

WinFonda said:
Killzone 2 sells 600k+ in NA and it's a failure.. on on GAF :lol

Also, since it probably needs to be said: KZ2 worldwide > Halo Wars worldwide.

When a four years hyped FPS, THE game that should push the HW is not sure if surpassed in ww sales a RTS, I wuold call it a failure.

And even making a comparison between KZ2 and COD5 on PS3, these are the results:

CODW@W - 0.60m in 2 weeks to ~6.1m PS3s.
Killzone 2 - 0.62m in 5 weeks to ~7.2m PS3s

600K in NA normally wouldn't be bad.
Is bad if these are the sales in more than a month of your AAA first party title that you're hyping from 4 years.

It may be the best FPS out there, but it seriously disappointed in sales.
And the fact that Sony could only be happy of "over 1 million world wide" says it all...

McValdemar · Apr 18, 2009

Darklord said:
They expected it to save the PS3. They probably thought it would be Halo type sales I bet.

But finished in the Perfect Dark Zero type of sales :lol :lol :lol

Rolf NB · Apr 18, 2009

farnham said:
really..? how much did sega hack and slash games on the next gen consoles sell this gen..?

I thought for a while about what game you might refer to and came up mostly blank. Do you actually mean Beast Rider?

Kifimbo · Apr 18, 2009

Scrubking said:
Seriously. They are already starting clans for this game and it's still over 2 months away.

One or two bad reviews from major publications and everything fall apart.

jvm · Apr 18, 2009

DNF said:
Numbers posted in this thread so far: (...snip...)

I should have a bit of refinement to add to that. Tomorrow I hope the article is up.

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