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NPD Sales Results for March 2015 [Up1: Nintendo numbers, PS4 placing]

There is no way.

No way, MS lets COD marketing slip, especially now

0rEBY2b.gif

Sorry haven't been following this thread closely enough... why are some thinking COD is going to Sony marketing?
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I think I saw a chart or something from you saying something like 35ish% of sony PS4 sales are US based, while remaining is 65% is rest of world?

Would be interesting to see a comparison of RotW and US for both xbox one and ps4


A lot of discussion here about US, which is more "easily" tracked, but if we are talking maybe 40% of world wide, its the biggest individual market but its still not even 50%

~36% as of March 1st

March4_zpswdhwy1in.jpg



Xbox One is much harder to track but its much higher ratio US sales vs worldwide. Almost 2/3.
 
Well Phil has mentioned about building their IP and this is Halo year. The push and confidence on this title is on point. On COD, MS only have to maintain tournament and DLC and let Sony run with release marketing like with ESL, MKX and MS partnering which in turn means your console has unlimited marketing due to tournaments every year

If Sony are going with marketing of the title, it will mean certainly DLC and some tournaments generally (especially with timed DLC) will also be PS lead. There's never been a time when exclusive marketing on one platform has meant another platform holder gets timed DLC. They both go hand in hand as part of the deal.
 

Boke1879

Member
If Sony are going with marketing of the title, it will mean certainly DLC and some tournaments generally (especially with timed DLC) will also be PS lead. There's never been a time when exclusive marketing on one platform has meant another platform holder gets timed DLC. They both go hand in hand as part of the deal.

I get what people mean when they say getting marketing for COD is kinda pointless. It will sell well regardless. But people really don't see the potential. IF Sony has marketing for COD they will no doubt bundle the game with a PS4. It'll move units. They are already bundling Arkham Knight and I would assume MGSV as well. Now they also have Battlefront.

I would assume you'll see all of those still bundled in some capacity this holiday.
 
I get what people mean when they say getting marketing for COD is kinda pointless. It will sell well regardless. But people really don't see the potential. IF Sony has marketing for COD they will no doubt bundle the game with a PS4. It'll move units. They are already bundling Arkham Knight and I would assume MGSV as well. Now they also have Battlefront.

I would assume you'll see all of those still bundled in some capacity this holiday.
It's simple really.

Marketing doesn't do anything for the consumer really, but benefits Sony.

Sony sells more hardware, makes more money, invest more in PS brand.

It does come full circle, but many fans probably rationalize they use the money to fund more IP's. If only the business side of things worked like that. Really wish Sony was back like Sony of the 90's right now and just funding crazy stuff left and right. They need MS/Apple money.
 

Hydrargyrus

Member
Do you think that there will be a special edition PS4 with battlefront like with Batman or MGSV?

Could be interesting to see how it looks... And that bundle, like the white PS4+Destiny, could do huge numbers
 
It's simple really.

Marketing doesn't do anything for the consumer really, but benefits Sony.

Sony sells more hardware, makes more money, invest more in PS brand.

It does come full circle, but many fans probably rationalize they use the money to fund more IP's. If only the business side of things worked like that. Really wish Sony was back like Sony of the 90's right now and just funding crazy stuff left and right. They need MS/Apple money.

Just as an aside to the 90s comment. Imagine how much stronger the PS brand would have been now if Sony hadn't messed up as much as they did in the days of the PS3. Sure the PS4 is a huge success story, but that could have been even bigger potentially if they hadn't pissed away their huge PS2 marketshare to MS with the 360 nor created so much red with PS3 loses.

Do you think that there will be a special edition PS4 with battlefront like with Batman or MGSV?

Could be interesting to see how it looks... And that bundle, like the white PS4+Destiny, could do huge numbers

They'd be crazy not to. But like I said the other day, that won't be announced until later in the year when they have the other 2 to sell.
 
Do you think that there will be a special edition PS4 with battlefront like with Batman or MGSV?

Could be interesting to see how it looks... And that bundle, like the white PS4+Destiny, could do huge numbers

I'd say the chances are very high. Heck, they've already pretty much teased one at the SW Celebration.

Also, a Storm Trooper White PS4 and Darth Vader Black PS4? It'll print so much money and Sony barely needs to spend anything hardware-wise.
 

M.D

Member
Thinking about Halo 5 sales, is the game going to do significantly worse than 3 and 4 overall? I know the 360 was strongest in the US&UK, but I think it was doing way better than the One is doing right now in a lot of the other territories? How much unites sold could that be?

Do we have overall and US&UK numbers for Halo 3 and 4?l to compare?
 

Elandyll

Banned
Do you think that there will be a special edition PS4 with battlefront like with Batman or MGSV?

Could be interesting to see how it looks... And that bundle, like the white PS4+Destiny, could do huge numbers
Found that on another forum, but the site hosting the pics is banned.
Ultra limied bundles have been shown at Celebration...
Is it what you had in mind? Supposedly only 5 of these sets have been produced, but it could be a sign.

Obviously the console itself could be a placeholder, the final one having some design.
 
Thinking about Halo 5 sales, is the game going to do significantly worse than 3 and 4 overall? I know the 360 was strongest in the US&UK, but I think it was doing way better than the One is doing right now in a lot of the other territories? How much unites sold could that be?

Do we have overall and US&UK numbers for Halo 3 and 4?l to compare?

It'll probably have less lifetime sales but come close to the initial front-loaded sales.
 

Boke1879

Member
It's simple really.

Marketing doesn't do anything for the consumer really, but benefits Sony.

Sony sells more hardware, makes more money, invest more in PS brand.

It does come full circle, but many fans probably rationalize they use the money to fund more IP's. If only the business side of things worked like that. Really wish Sony was back like Sony of the 90's right now and just funding crazy stuff left and right. They need MS/Apple money.

Marketing deals do fuck all for me and you. Especially us who discuss games on message boards. But the average consumer who will see a Star Wars Battlefront commercial on tv with the Playstation logo at the end will walk into a store, see that bundle and make the connection.
 

Steroyd

Member
Do you think that there will be a special edition PS4 with battlefront like with Batman or MGSV?

Could be interesting to see how it looks... And that bundle, like the white PS4+Destiny, could do huge numbers

If the design the case in sich a way that the character is holding a lightsaber that extends, dear mother of God.
 
Bloodborne did better than expected. Ps4 can literally do no wrong. It's pretty much like wii at this point selling on hype.

It is a lot more then just hype...... It's also nothing like wii which caught lightning in a bottle with the motion fad and soccer moms. Strong brand, great marketing, tonnes of support, wish people would stop downplaying playstation. Consumers see it as an attractive product.
 

Apathy

Member
Do you think that there will be a special edition PS4 with battlefront like with Batman or MGSV?

Could be interesting to see how it looks... And that bundle, like the white PS4+Destiny, could do huge numbers

Without question there is going to be a bundle. Stormtrooper white with black or R2 white with blue or a Darth Vader Black with red (all these as faceplates) would sell. This holiday season is going to be a huge buzz and media frenzy around Star Wars. They are going to want to cash in on as much as that as possible. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if they gave in to EA this E3 and announce EA Access for the PS4 just so Xbox does not get to play it early and mess with their advertising.
 
Actually the current info we have suggests he was right.


From http://channel9.msdn.com/events/GDC/GDC-2015/Developing-Games-for-Windows-10

Im referring to this post

He was asked about indie policies and said it would be limited to 3gb of ram, but we know thats not true for games, they can use the entire games side of the OS or run as apps. Now, maybe (probably) he knew about the stuff you mentioned above, because universal does seem to be for apps and maybe its a bit of a miscommunication but given this is almost 2 years ago and MS still haven't implemented it, i'd say it was probably a bit of a grey area.

Im happy to scrub it from my list, it doesn't really change his recent record.
 

EatMyFace

Banned
There is no way.

No way, MS lets COD marketing slip, especially now

0rEBY2b.gif
Maybe Activision decided that the benefits of a larger install base outweigh a big check from Microsoft. Think about it, if there's 10 million XBOs out here and 20 Million PS4s...and the XBO owners get DLC first....isn't that kinda messed up? I believe the only reason this deal was in place before was because the 360 had such a big lead in the US, where COD sold millions and millions.

Thinking about Halo 5 sales, is the game going to do significantly worse than 3 and 4 overall? I know the 360 was strongest in the US&UK, but I think it was doing way better than the One is doing right now in a lot of the other territories? How much unites sold could that be?

Do we have overall and US&UK numbers for Halo 3 and 4?l to compare?
XB1 is tracking above the 360 in overall sales isn't it? That alone should make Halo 5 at the very least match Halo 3 levels of sales(whatever they were). I think matching Halo 5 sales is out of the question due to the huge install base difference and position in the market.
 

Chris1

Member
So because he got some more recent things wrong in a time where MS was changing their policies like underwear and Respawn was being cagey about resolution until cboat's comment forced them to respond is 'not being reliable for a long time'? Ok. Love you until they leave you I guess.

By Titanfall textures he's not talking about resolution, even after the beta that was on xbox one CBOAT kept trying to claim that the main game would have downgraded textures that the alpha had despite there being a beta after that with better textures and lots of comments from Respawn saying the textures in the beta was what the game would be, even still he kept trying to say they would be downgraded to alpha textures for the main game release.

He was pretty much trying to say the sky is green at that point
 
Maybe Activision decided that the benefits of a larger install base outweigh a big check from Microsoft. Think about it, if there's 10 million XBOs out here and 20 Million PS4s...and the XBO owners get DLC first....isn't that kinda messed up? I believe the only reason this deal was in place before was because the 360 had such a big lead in the US, where COD sold millions and millions.


XB1 is tracking above the 360 in overall sales isn't it? That alone should make Halo 5 at the very least match Halo 3 levels of sales(whatever they were). I think matching Halo 5 sales is out of the question due to the huge install base difference and position in the market.

I think the 360 was around 8 million sales in the US by the time Halo 3 launched, so I'm not sure if XB1 has hit that mark in the US quite yet.

Halo 3 had a fantastic attach rate when it launched, I recall it being around 50% at the time. I'm not sure if Halo 5 can replicate that success unless the US based XB1 sales are drastically higher then 8 million or there's a dramatic shift prior to 5's release.
 
Maybe Activision decided that the benefits of a larger install base outweigh a big check from Microsoft. Think about it, if there's 10 million XBOs out here and 20 Million PS4s...and the XBO owners get DLC first....isn't that kinda messed up? I believe the only reason this deal was in place before was because the 360 had such a big lead in the US, where COD sold millions and millions.


XB1 is tracking above the 360 in overall sales isn't it? That alone should make Halo 5 at the very least match Halo 3 levels of sales(whatever they were). I think matching Halo 5 sales is out of the question due to the huge install base difference and position in the market.


ehhh..not with cod and battlefront launching the same year, plus all the other usual big hitters now like asscreed and nba 2k that weren't juggernauts when halo 3 launched.

there are now way more games that compete with each other during those months.
 
"Selling on hype". What does that mean?
PS4 is selling because it's Playstation, the most powerful console with the most games.

Not to mention the PS2 and PS1 are the #1 and #2 best selling home consoles of all time worldwide. And depending on where you look PS3 is #4 best selling console worldwide (I believe ZhugeEX said PS3 has most likely passed 360). PSP is the #3 best selling handheld system worldwide (only outsold by #1 DS and #2 Gameboy). PlayStation is such a massive brand worldwide. I've said this before, but by the time this generation ends, I think there's a chance that, of the top five video game consoles, four of them could be PlayStation consoles, because I do think PS4 will end up selling more than PS3 and 360, but I'm not sure it'll overtake PS2/PS1/Wii.
 
Good lord I have to reign in how emphatic I sound about stuff. I heard the same thing as Chobel but it's totally grain of salt. The guy I heard it from said its install base related. Again take it as a rumor I apologize for how confident that sounded
If Microsoft has lost CoD marketing rights it's because they're being outsold 2:1 worldwide, so it's bad business for your DLC map packs to only reach the smaller portion of consumers for the first 2 months.
Quoted, because a lot of people seem to be overlooking this fact, and I've been yammering about it for some time now. :p

This isn't a situation like last generation where the market was effectively split down the middle and "bribes" were the most significant differentiating factor. Not only is the PS4 more powerful and easier to program than the Bone, it has a huge lead in the market. Earlier someone said Activision only care about money, and if we assume that to be the case, that doesn't mean that Sony were finally able/willing to out-bribe MS, because roughly two-thirds of Activision's Gen8 revenue is already coming from the PS4, and Sony haven't even cut the price yet. That's a significant disparity, and it's likely to tip even further in Sony's favor as time goes on. Sony don't need to bribe Activision for preferential treatment, because Activision are already getting twice as much money "from Sony" as they are from MS. And that doesn't apply only to CoD; it applies to every game Activision sell. Even MS can't afford to bribe their way out of that reality.


There's not true. Advanced Warfare XBO sku is ahead of PS4 on NPD when almost all multiplat games sold more on PS4. Don't know currently Ghosts situation but XBO sku was ahead too.
Except, the US isn't the only market in the world, and retail isn't the only way to buy games. SuperData indicates that PlayStation users are buying significantly more games digitally than XBox users, and digital games actually bring higher profits to the publisher than does retail, even ignoring issues like used sales.

NPD threads are fun, but they seem to give people a very distorted view of the actual market conditions. =/
 
ehhh..not with cod and battlefront launching the same year, plus all the other usual big hitters now like asscreed and nba 2k that weren't juggernauts when halo 3 launched.

there are now way more games that compete with each other during those months.

This holdiay is going to be fascinating. I don't even think those are all of the titles that will be released this holiday. September and October still have a lot of prime real estate remaining. Oh and rockband and guitar hero are coming back. This holiday is going t be crammed with releases.
 
Except, the US isn't the only market in the world, and retail isn't the only way to buy games. SuperData indicates that PlayStation users are buying significantly more games digitally than XBox users, and digital games actually bring higher profits to the publisher than does retail, even ignoring issues like used sales.

NPD threads are fun, but they seem to give people a very distorted view of the actual market conditions. =/

My favorite is when every month sales are down yoy and digital sales are never taken into account or what came out last year that may have caused sales to be higher than normal. There are two things that in my opinion is consistently happening every month. Less retail sales are happening and Digital sales are increasing. Yet when next month's npd comes around it won't stop the doom and gloom when sales are down again at retail. They should be down. Digital is becoming easier and easier with preloading and sometimes games are even discounted with no tax as well.

Edit: sorry for double post.
 

Chobel

Member
Im referring to this post

He was asked about indie policies and said it would be limited to 3gb of ram, but we know thats not true for games, they can use the entire games side of the OS or run as apps. Now, maybe (probably) he knew about the stuff you mentioned above, because universal does seem to be for apps and maybe its a bit of a miscommunication but given this is almost 2 years ago and MS still haven't implemented it, i'd say it was probably a bit of a grey area.

Im happy to scrub it from my list, it doesn't really change his recent record.

OK, I remember that now, his info was also corroborated by famousmortimer at time even though he admitted it was an outdated info.
 

Massa

Member
He is just trying to downplay it, despite playstation being by far the biggest seller on consoles in history. The worst selling playstation is #4 all time and will end up better then the best selling xbox.

allan-bh's point is that neither PS4 or Wii sold on "hype". Consoles sell well when they have software people want to play at an attractive price point.
 
Do you think that there will be a special edition PS4 with battlefront like with Batman or MGSV?

Could be interesting to see how it looks... And that bundle, like the white PS4+Destiny, could do huge numbers

This is the limited edition Sony gave away at the recent event

2lQREMG.jpg


If they keep the box the same, make it a white PS4 and put that image of the storm troopers helmet across the face of the PS4. It'll sell out so fast it'll make destiny month look miniscule and the Batman limited edition month a mere footnote.
 
My favorite is when every month sales are down yoy and digital sales are never taken into account or what came out last year that may have caused sales to be higher than normal. There are two things that in my opinion is consistently happening every month. Less retail sales are happening and Digital sales are increasing. Yet when next month's npd comes around it won't stop the doom and gloom when sales are down again at retail. They should be down. Digital is becoming easier and easier with preloading and sometimes games are even discounted with no tax as well.

Edit: sorry for double post.

Currently on my X1, I have 2 physical disc games and 10 digital games compared to my 24 disc games and 6 digital on 360 games. Yes digital is happening right now and should be considered. Same thing on the PlayStation front, digital is happening and considering that patches are even bigger that last gen games
 
Currently on my X1, I have 2 physical disc games and 10 digital games compared to my 24 disc games and 6 digital on 360 games. Yes digital is happening right now and should be considered. Same thing on the PlayStation front, digital is happening and considering that patches are even bigger that last gen games

I have 1 physical game on ps4, 10 digital, digital is definitely growing based on my anecdotal evidence :).
 

Boke1879

Member
This is the limited edition Sony gave away at the recent event

2lQREMG.jpg


If they keep the box the same, make it a white PS4 and put that image of the storm troopers helmet across the face of the PS4. It'll sell out so fast it'll make destiny month look miniscule and the Batman limited edition month a mere footnote.

The official twitter account for EA Star Wars says they are giving two of them away today
 
Not to mention the PS2 and PS1 are the #1 and #2 best selling home consoles of all time worldwide. And depending on where you look PS3 is #4 best selling console worldwide (I believe ZhugeEX said PS3 has most likely passed 360). PSP is the #3 best selling handheld system worldwide (only outsold by #1 DS and #2 Gameboy). PlayStation is such a massive brand worldwide. I've said this before, but by the time this generation ends, I think there's a chance that, of the top five video game consoles, four of them could be PlayStation consoles, because I do think PS4 will end up selling more than PS3 and 360, but I'm not sure it'll overtake PS2/PS1/Wii.

It'll outsell the Wii I think and it'll outsell PS1 if it gets to 149.99. The only way it passes the PS2 is if it gets to 99.99 and is in production until 2024.

With the hardware they have I could absolutely see it getting cheap it's just a matter of how cheap and how long they will keep making it.

If it doesn't outsell those consoles it'll be because of Sony and not really the system itself imo.

Unlike the Wii I don't see PS4s in people's closets after 6 months, so it won't see its sales fall of a cliff in the same time span. It'll taper off slowly.
 

EGM1966

Member
There is no way.

No way, MS lets COD marketing slip, especially now

0rEBY2b.gif
It's not their decision. Activision can chose to change their partner when the contract expires and is up for renewal.

Why do people keep thinking MS dictates these things, or Sony for that matter? Activision may well stick with MS (I'm not saying they won't) but it's their decision and no matter how much money MS throws at them they can say no if they wish.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I think the 360 was around 8 million sales in the US by the time Halo 3 launched, so I'm not sure if XB1 has hit that mark in the US quite yet.

Halo 3 had a fantastic attach rate when it launched, I recall it being around 50% at the time. I'm not sure if Halo 5 can replicate that success unless the US based XB1 sales are drastically higher then 8 million or there's a dramatic shift prior to 5's release.

Halo 3 launched in September 2007 to an Xbox 360 install base of 6.7 million in the USA and an estimated 12 million+ worldwide.

In the USA the game sold 3.3 million units to end users during the first month and by the end of the year the game had been purchased by over 4.85 million customers in the US. By the end of 2008 the game had sold 5.77 million units in the USA and by the end of 2012 the game had sold in more than 14.5 million worldwide.

Halo 3: ODST launched September 2009 to an Xbox 360 install base of 16.2 million in the USA and an estimated 32 million+ worldwide.

In the USA it sold 1.52 million units to end users during the first month and by the end of the year more than 2.5 million units had been sold through in the USA. As a spin off game, lower sales were to be expected. By the end of 2014 the game has sold more than 6 million worldwide. It's estimated that almost 2/3rds of sales came from the USA alone.

Halo Reach launched September 2010 to an Xbox 360 install base of 22 million in the USA and an estimated 43 million+ worldwide.

In the USA Halo Reach sales matched launch sales of Halo 3 with more than 3.3 million being sold through during the first month. By the end of the year Halo Reach sales had reached 4.5 million sold through in the USA. It's estimated that Halo Reach sold better than ODST but has not been able to match 3 sales in the USA.

Halo 4 launched November 2012 to an Xbox 360 install base of 36.6 million in the USA and an estimated 71 million+ worldwide.

In the USA Halo 4 sold an estimated 3.2 million units to end customers during its launch month and by the end of the year had sold through more than 4.5 million units.

Perhaps someone who actually follows Halo or has additional software sales data can fill in the gaps.

Halo 5 will launch to an install base of almost 8 million in the USA (Xbox One) and can be considered a success should it sell more than 2.75 million units during month 1.
 

Purest 78

Member
There is no way.

No way, MS lets COD marketing slip, especially now

0rEBY2b.gif

It's about what's beneficial for Activision. The partnership made sense last gen, it simple doesn't This generation. Ps4 is the market leader everywhere at this point. Delaying DLC on the leading console doesn't make business sense.
 
This is the limited edition Sony gave away at the recent event

2lQREMG.jpg


If they keep the box the same, make it a white PS4 and put that image of the storm troopers helmet across the face of the PS4. It'll sell out so fast it'll make destiny month look miniscule and the Batman limited edition month a mere footnote.

Might need to cancel my Batman bundle. Will wait for E3 to decide.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Anyway,

Here is my personal forecast for the next 5 years as well as a look at how previous generations performed from Gen 5 through to Gen 7. Just thought I'd post it here so I have a record somewhere.

For Gen 8 the install base currently stands at ~41 million as of end of 2014. Through the end of 2019 I believe that the install base will grow to 150 million with PS4 as the market leader with approximately 60% market share, Xbox One in second place with approximately 30% and Wii U with around 10% market share.

*Percentages have an error margin of 5% each way.

5YearforecastREV2_zpsoljkq8vq.jpg


For the record. I previously predicted 19 million unit sales for PS4 through the end of 2014. Actual outcome was 19.9m.
I also predicted 11.7m Xbox One unit sales through the end of 2014. Actual outcome was approximately 12 million.

Here is my 2015 forecast (with previous 2014 forecast). 36.1m cumulative PS4's sold, 21 million cumulative Xbox One's sold and 12.5 million cumulative Nintendo Wii U's sold.

PS4%202015_zpsx581gz1n.jpg
 

pszet0

Banned
Ugh I hope Sony obtaining marketing rights to Black Ops 3 isn't true. That will just take time away from other games at their E3 conference.
 
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