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NPD Sales Results for March 2015 [Up1: Nintendo numbers, PS4 placing]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Welfare
Member
Good news. Even EA think so.
Do you mean something like this? That shows the cumulative gap over time.
Highest the gap has been - 1.13m (Oct 2014)
Lowest the gap has been - 0.19m (Dec 2013)
(Numbers rounded)
Theoretically speaking the gap could be over 1.25m come October should PS4 continue to outsell X1 in the same way it did during 2014. Of course I'm expecting October (Halo) and the holiday season to hinder further growth for PS4.
Yep, thanks.
I was just wondering what the slope and level of the sales differential looks like right now. The gap is clearly above, but it seems like the slope is roughly the same -- which makes an overtake in the holiday season an even less likely proposition.
I suspect that we will be playing NPD gap rollercoaster over the next 5 years.
theprodigy
Member
I can't understand this assumption people made that BF: Hardline's sales target is anywhere near BF4's, and that if it doesn't reach that it is a failure.
Oh you mean like this? You want to compare Jan through Dec for 2014/2015.
Exaaactly
Just wanted to try and keep track of how the "relative momentum" is shifting over time.
1M+ units for a March release (US only) is nothing to sneeze at. BF3/4 were released in the fall with a ton more hype and frankly they were better games. I'm willing to bet that most publishers would kill for numbers like Hardline from a spring release.
Oh you mean like this? You want to compare Jan through Dec for 2014/2015.
that graph doesn't seem to be ok, it points the gap at 300k on Dec 2014 and even if that was true, the 2015 red line should start on 300k too
or maybe I'm reading it wrong tho
edit: yeah, now I see where I'm mistaken, the 2013 gap isn't counted on the graph. sorry lol
Scientificreason
Banned
Not happening...ps4 also won;t be 399 this holiday. BY the time oct/nov come the lead will be well over 1 million again. MS cannot rely on undercutting and sony doing nothing every holiday, they can only go so low, it is not a viable long term solution. I find it funny because X1 had one great holiday over ps4 it will be the same every year...the ps4 has sustained more momentum over x1 despite being more expensiv,e it is unlikely at this point the x1 will all of a sudden revert that trend.
Welfare
Member
It is comparing 2 years separately. The gap would start at January of each year.
The graph isn't trying to show the full gap over the two years, but the relative momentum between the platforms.
Think of it this way: If (big if) the slope of the 2015 curve remains above the 2014 one and the change in the holiday period isn't large enough, Microsoft's cyclical strategy isn't really working: They lose too much market share in the off-season to compensate during the holidays.
Agreed. Although I do think Halo 5 could help boost XB1 sales a bit I do think the PS4 lead will be around 1 million by november and I don't see MS cutting into that lead as much as they did last holiday.
Sony has too many bundle opportunities, they have the price cut they can use. Way more competitive this holiday
serversurfer
Member
Ta. That's a pretty significant boost they got then. I guess now we wait to see if Sony drop the hammer or try to nickel and dime it. Not really knowing much of anything, it seems to me that they can afford to hit $299 by autumn, and it seems like sales might really skyrocket if they can/do, which means lots of Plus subs, digital royalties, etc.Not right now for worldwide buddy. I got to sleep and work in the morning (UK time). Will probably get this done tomorrow evening If i get time. I don't have all the numbers to hand right now.
For US here ya go-
Edit: Once you wake up and get back to your sheets, how about a YoY % increase following the drop?
I agree. With the way that Microsoft keeps devaluing their product with deals, etc. as well as relying on both November & December just for huge sales, it's like the Xbox One has become a "Holiday Console."
It will be especially telling to see comparisons between XB1 and PS4 sales post price drop. Sort of a barometer for actual consumer demand.
Not to beat a dead horse here but for those of you belittling and insulting anyone who has the audacity to hope for a follow up for The Order or at the very least the chance for RAD to capitalize on their tech, I don't see why anyone would not want to see this engine
iterated upon and further utilized.
Before you ask no that is not a photo it is an exceptional in game screencap via the recently released photo mode.
There is really no disputing the value of the tech on display in the game. This, among other things, is what people are talking about when they say they see potential. You would think most gamers would want to see the fruits of this tech utilized in more games but for whatever reason that is not the case. I find that incredibly sad.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
- very expensive technology
- very poor sales
How is that not a self-evident dispute as to its value?
Please remind yourself that this is a sales topic before accusing me of a vendetta against the game and talking about how much you personally loved it and hope to see the wonderful world and narrative expanded upon.
Umm What? Nowhere in that post did I talk about personally loving it or how it had it a wonderful world. Nor did I reference you in the post. Sooo what exactly are you on about?
As for your bullet points:
The engine has already been developed. So the cost of developing the tech has no bearing at this point. Also you keep insisting that it was incredibly expensive when we have no concrete evidence of it being such. Before you link those articles again no linking 3rd party developers' and executives' remarks about how much more expensive third party games will be this gen doesn't hold water. Like I said when you linked them, first party development, especially from Sony, has always been relatively low cost in comparison to the inflated development budgets seen from third party publishers. Furthermore the 5 years of development that is so often quoted here is misleading as it includes the early engine development work when RAD's team was incredibly small. Actual full scale development took place over the course of 3 years which puts it well within the industry average. So, not only is "very expensive technology" a pointless observation to make its also one with no factual basis.
All I said in my post was that I want to see their tech used whether be it in The Order or elsewhere. Why? Because it's fucking incredible and anyone with eyes can see the proof. Your response implying an impressive new engine should be abandoned because a game it was used to make had "very poor sales" would be like saying nobody should use CryEngine because Ryse was a commercial failure. It's absurd. I fail to see how anything I said was unreasonable.
freefornow
Member
Edited coz not sales related
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Now Visceral needs to get a chance make Dead Space again with EA interfering in the design. They made a generic money maker for EA now.
KillerMan91
Member
Monthly 3DS vs PSP (and DS) comparison
3DS extends its lead compared to PSP as New3DS keeps the sales still relatively healthy. Next month will be more interesting with usual April drop and effects of New3DS starting to normalize. Probably not dropping below 116 though so another victory in the horizon !
Code:
3DS 2015 PSP 2009 NDS 2009
January 74 172 510
February 395 199 588
March 265 168 563
April 116 1040
May 100 633
June 163 766
July 123 539
August 140 552
September 190 524
October 174 457
November 293 1700
December 654 3310
Through
March 734 539 1661
Total 2492 11182MrNyarlathotep
Banned
This is like claiming that the wind doesn't exist because we cannot see it.
No, I cannot provide you with exact dollar amounts to "prove" that The Order cost a significant amount of revenue to develop, but I can tell you;
1) The cost floor for current gen focussed development is at least double the cost floor for previous generations development, and the previous generations cost floor was at least double that previous generations, and so on and so forth since the dawn of game development.
If you want to pretend that isn't true, the onus is on you to provide evidence that it is not.
2) The Order had a marketing campaign comparable to any other high profile AAA third party title; multiple teaser trailers, multiple interviews and cover stories with the Press, launch embargos consistent with a managed media campaign, and a keynote presence at a milestone E3 conference.
If you want to pretend that The Order did not have marketing costs comparable to a high profile third party AAA title such as a Battlefield or a Call Of Duty, the onus is on you to provide evidence that it did not.
3) The Order has a graphical fidelity that other AAA developers have shown incapable of reaching.
This graphical fidelity can be attributed to one or more of the following four aspects.
a) Technology:
The Order uses a proprietary renderer designed to be optimised for the PS4, but it is only a renderer. All of their techniques to achieve image quality are established and available to other developers. They are not creating new technology, as IDTech has in the past by creating entirely new render techniques such as bump-mapping or megatextures, and they are not creating entirely new APIs such as DICE were with Mantle. Nor are they using hardware that is significantly more powerful than anything else on the market, such as Crytek did with Crysis, because the PS4 utilises off the shelf parts and its performance capabilities are well documented
We can then safely infer that Technology is not the reason that The Orders visual fidelity is what it is.
If you want to pretend otherwise, the onus is on you to prove that The Order has created Technical Artistry that is unavailable to any other developer.
b) Tools
The Orders graphics artists are using the same pipeline that other graphics artists use; professional modelling software such as Maya, along with professional PBR texture authoring software such as DDO.
As a result we can safely say that the Tools used by RAD do not allow their artists to inherently create better quality products than industry standards available to other developers.
If you want to pretend otherwise, the onus is on you to prove that RAD developed proprietary tools that create a better end product than is available to other developers using industry standard tools and pipelines.
c) Talent
If you want to claim that the artists at Ready At Dawn are industry world-leaders in 3D modelling, texturing and animation, then feel free to do so, but industry world leaders tend to also have industry world-leading salaries commensurate with their talent.
If you want to pretend that Ready At Dawn have the greatest 3D modellers, Texture Artists and Animators on the planet, but they pay them less than industry standard wages and make no use of the resources that other AAA developers do for cost reasons - such as outsourcing - the onus is on you to prove that they can get the same end result cheaper than any other developer.
d) Budget
If we can accept that RAD do not have world class secret proprietary technology that can obtain better results than any other developer out there, and that they are not using secret proprietary tools that can get results better than any other developer out there, and that their employee pool is not inherently vastly more talented than every other developer out there - and Occams Razor would suggest that none of these are true - then again, we can attribute all of these factors to cost.
Even if you refute all of the above and want to claim that they DO have secret industry leading technology, tools and developers, all of those things are very expensive to implement.
If you can concede that they do not have all of those things, then the differentiator between The ORders graphical fidelity and any other AAA developers graphical fidelity is - once again - a result of development budget, and Sonys willingness to spend more on this game than other publishers were willing to spend on comparable games.
And again, if you want to pretend otherwise, the onus is on you to provide evidence that The Order somehow did not cost a lot of money to produce.
Felessan
Member
This bothered me for quite some time (from the first time I saw you long-term predictions).
What is your explanation of flat YoY consoles sales between 2014 and 2015?
We have a very well aligned launch this time (except WiiU, but it's on a rise anyway) and consoles usually don't reach a highest point at their 2nd year as other of your graphs indicates (normally it's a 3rd or 4th year).
For US you expect 6+ mil for PS4 - it means that Europe should expect sudden drop in sales to compensate? Or Xbox One will be heavily cannibalized by PS worldwide?
Your whole arguments hinges on this idea that somehow it's impossible for one company to develop an engine that outperforms competitors on various fronts except we know that this is possible because we see the advantages and disadvantages engines like Unity, CryEngine, Unreal Engine, Id Tech etc etc bring to the table. If engines were somehow meaningless and indistinguishable then we wouldn't have such a wide variety available and readily used.
We know for a fact RAD developed, tweaked and iterated on an in house engine over the course of two years with a very small team of core developers with incredible pedigrees (formerly of Pixar, Blizzard, Naughty Dog, Sony Santa Monica, etc) so yes we do know they have incredibly talented people on staff who banded together to start their own company and likely worked ceaselessly on what they perceived as their first big break as a studio in the industry.
You have 0 proof of doubled development costs. We have statements from developers stating that ease of development in both consoles has cut down on development time and cost especially in comparison to the complex architecture of PS3 last gen. The articles you quote to back up your double development cost mantra are PREDICTIONS from THIRD PARTY DEVELOPERS and EXECUTIVES that were reported before development even began on the new hardware. Furthermore we have heard NOTHING about this dramatic escalation in cost from developers since these consoles were released. Hmm I wonder why that is? So no, those are not in any way shape or form proof for your dogmatic insistence that The Order had to have a astronomical budget. You can't just go around claiming a game was some titanic investment with 0 actual evidence to back you up. And no my pointing out that you have no evidence doesn't somehow obligate me to prove you wrong it obligates you to prove your god damn point which you have failed miserably to do via assumptions and hearsay.
Also what on earth are you on about saying RAD didn't make an API? Nobody said they made an API we said they made an engine. One that produced some the most incredible graphics anyone has ever seen. And yes for the record they did create a significant amount of ground breaking tech for their engine. They gave multiple industry presentations at SIGGRAPH and GDC detailing that tech which was unanimously lauded. I actually linked the materials for one of these presentations earlier in this very thread.
On what planet does amazing graphical tech equate solely to big budgets? Last I checked some of the best looking games last generation were made with relatively small budgets (Uncharted 2, The Last of Us, Heavy Rain, Gears 1). You're insistence that creating incredible visuals in a game is dependent on budget and not talent is fucking ludicrous. If that was the case then Call of Duty and Destiny would be the most gorgeous games ever. Why is it so hard to acknowledge that they deserve some damn credit for their achievements? You can't look at the game and not be blown away. What you see on that screen isn't dollars it's pixels and people worked hard to put them there. They created an engine that is capable of the most impressive realtime lighting, shading and texture rendering I have ever seen on any platform. Yet you have the gall to dismiss that accomplishment as the sole result of monetary investment and not talent or hard work. Shame on you for attempting to downplay the talent or hardwork of a developer simply because their salary probably doesn't have enough zeros on the end of it for you to consider them top teir and that this is somehow proof they are devoid of qualification or skill. That is the most elitist self righteous bullshit I have ever read on this forum.
I believe his point is that the majority of the cost went into developing the engine rather than the game itself. Paying top-shelf developers for 5 years to make an engine that looks that good must have cost some serious green.
Used more words than necessary to make a point, but w/e
I think the great achievement in The Order 1886 is in the rendering. As far as I know that team didn't have more than 8 people on it.
While programmers are the best paid members of teams due to their specialized skill set, the number of artists on games dwarfs them.
Anyway, this whole discussion hinged upon that the people selling you an engine that has made big strides in work flow which will result in counter-acting the rising development costs (Unreal Engine 4 over Unreal Engine 3) is taken at face value and not recognizing that games have different scopes.
You can of course claim a game like The Order costs as much to make as Assassin's Creed Unity and has a similar advertisement budget, but then the very popular "onus" isn't on the other person to disprove that statement.
Game budgets are highly variable, especially if you lump the global advertisement into it so just repeating PR statements and getting other people to disprove your statements is rather weak.
And before this is getting strawmanned (we all know how this always ends) I don't think The Order was cheap. It was developed in California, after all.
You didn't take into account that they saved some serious dough on designers and story writers.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
I'm sorry, is this addressed at me?
Because a lack of content is evidence of cost, and not only am I not "simultaneously" claiming the game is extremely lacking in content I don't believe I've ever made that claim.
No it isn't.
It's that you can visibly see the budgetary expenditure of The Order on Asset costs alone.
I hoped if we could stipulate that The Order was in fact a very expensive game to make we could have an actual discussion about its subsequent market performance and Sony expectations thereof, but I guess that's not going to happen.
Wow.
Yeah, okay.
I don't think it is morally offensive, dismissive or "elitist" to say that money gets you talent and hard work in any industry.
No, its that at every conceivable level The Order was an expensive title to produce.
I find it - frankly - baffling at how vehemently people are arguing that that cannot possibly be the case.
I'm not sure, what the point of this was supposed to be.
If it was that "the game was so expensive and sold crappily, ipso facto there will never be a sequel", I can only answer with two words: sunk costs.
It does not matter one bit, how much the development of the first game cost. What does matter, is how much you can benefit from the existing assets in the future. There is a solid engine and brand recognition. A sequel should be much cheaper to produce, and with proper marketing, it should sell much better. Hell, they might even make a game that is not lambasted by every games site for 18 months straight before its release.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
It's:
Because step one of any discussion about The Orders sales performance is its cost.
Step two is what Sonys probable expectations (on a commercial, critical and strategic level) were, and is a potentially interesting point of discussion.
It would be really nice to get past Step One.
Would have saved a lot of needless headaches if you'd just been clear about this in the first place tbh.
Admittedly I haven't read every NPD thread, but I don't recall seeing you and certain others getting so hot under the collar about other high profile game failures (and seemingly people enjoying the game in spite of that), so there's clearly something about this particular title going on.
What's your definition of very expensive and what are claiming the budget to be? If very expensive is higher than a Nintendo game than yes it was very expensive. But then most h games do cost more than Nintendo games to make. But I would put very expensive at a level that only the most expensive games cost or else there is no meaning to the term "very". So I don't think the order was very expensive relative to your average HD game. Doubt they spent more than 40 million on it with promo.
Would I green light a sequel? No.
Would I throw away the tech? No.
Would I green light a sequel? No.
Would I throw away the tech? No.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
When Medal of Honor bombed it didn't have swarms of posters rushing to say it probably only cost as much as Boom Blox to develop and that anyone who said otherwise is probably pursuing an agenda and how they're ruining the forum by making such outrageous claims impuning the integrity of Danger Close
LOL at the false equivalency. GIant third party publisher releases a flagship title in a long running successful franchise is not even remotely equivalent to a small studio producing a new AAA IP funded by a first party publisher. If you think the Order's budget was anywhere close to Medal of Honor you are fucking mental.
Nobody is saying The Order only cost as much as Boom Blox or LittleBigPlanet. We are saying it is far more likely that is in line with all the other AAA Sony IPs this gen like Killzone and Second Son which are MUCH cheaper than the massive AAA bloat seen coming out of EA, Activision and Ubisoft. It is you who is claiming it was "very expensive" citing increased third party AAA budgets to support your claims. But please do continue to misrepresent the arguments being out forth its amusing to watch.
I made an effort to address every singe point that was made in support of your claims multiple times: I have addressed your assumptions about cost of development from the standpoint of RADs development cycle, the reliability of the sources for inflated development costs, the assumption that graphical achievement correlates directly with development budgets and you have completely ignored every single one instead opting to quote my conclusive statements. I addressed your conclusions about RADs technical abilities and talent with a link to notes from a SIGGRAPH presentation wherein they demonstrated both in abundance. At this point it is absolutely pointless arguing with someone who consistently selectively quotes your arguments so as to carefully avoid actually addressing the counterpoints you make multiple times while repeating the very same claims. Now I see you've gone on to imply that the conversation cant move forward because I refuse to accept your argument when you were the one who switched the focus of the argument to development costs by selectively quoting me in the first place. That's rich.
But as we already established US market for PS4 is only ~36% of total sales.
For Xbox its ~66%
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
You honestly have not.
You have not addressed the fact that development budgets increase with every new generation while simultaneously linking to siggraph presentations discussing entirely new graphics workflows that needed to be created from scratch while dismissing lowballed estimates on cost increases because "they haven't said anything recently" (because new gen titles have been delayed across the board which literally means titles going over budget).
You have not addressed the fact that - even assuming RAD are the most skilled developers in the world - Asset creation is a fixed time cost in development, and higher fidelity assets require more time (and therefore money) to produce.
You have not addressed the fact that The Order was in development for 5 years, and even if - as with every AAA title from every AAA developer - it started with a smaller team in pre-production it was been ramped up into full production for at least 3 years, which is a longer development cycle than most developers ahve the luxury of working towards.
You have not addressed the marketing costs alone being directly comparable with other modern AAA titles.
It is either hugely naive or hugely disingenuous to claim that The Order "probably cost as much to produce as Little Big Planet"
Welfare
Member
Back in 2013. We don't know how much the ratio has shrunk.
5 years development time including a new engine. I am not sure I would count the cost/time of a new engine against game development time.
I don't think so, ZhugeEx mentioned it, I got impression it is current ( with last sales numbers )
theprodigy
Member
Yeah I think its based upon his "Estimates/tracking" and since a lot of people take his numbers for face value, those would be "correct" as well.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Those costs would be offset as an engine expense if Sony plan on using The Orders engine for multiple future projects.
In the same way that Crytek use the CryEngine for multiple projects, that Epic use the Unreal engine, that EA use Frostbite or that Ubisoft use the AC engine.
Welfare
Member
CosmicQueso
Member
Holy shit the NPD thread has lost its collective gawdammed mind.
Listen Nya, at some point, for your own sanity, you should just slowly back away. Because you've entered into a place where reason has been crumbled into a ball and burned.
Just remember this simple rule:
Guys, whenever there is mention of a $100 PS4 price drop for this year and the similarity of timing with a similar PS2 price drop, people are often quick to say that Sony is not in a similar position financially as back then so it's not likely.
So just wondering, does Sony make more profit by dropping the price by $100 and thus selling way more PS4s much quicker (and as such selling more games, accessories, PS+ subscriptions etc.) or does it make more profit by maintaining the system's current price?
So just wondering, does Sony make more profit by dropping the price by $100 and thus selling way more PS4s much quicker (and as such selling more games, accessories, PS+ subscriptions etc.) or does it make more profit by maintaining the system's current price?
Can almost guarantee that The Order's Engine will be used in the next GodofWar. Sony Studios share that kind of stuff all the time.