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For those who're keeping track, how often does the "[game] was only out for xx days!" argument have held up in subsequent NPDs?

It's almost always used in some fashion, and as far as I can remember it rarely comes to pass.

Occasionally it works out, but very rarely. 90+% of the time, the next full month is less than the 2 days worth of sales.

However, it's worth pointing out that, like in other things, Nintendo can buck the trend. The last time I recall a 2nd month being higher than the first in a scenario like this was a Mario Party game.

 

[Hero]

Good numbers for Watch Dogs and MK8.

It's unreasonable to think that the Wii U can come back to above GCN levels. What Nintendo needs to do is ride out the rest of the Wii U's lifecycle delivering quality games to prove that they won't give up on the system, like how Sony didn't give up on the PS3 (although vita am cry). That way they can carry positive momentum into the successor system instead of doing what they did with the Wii and letting it die a slow death for its last two years.


With June being a much better retail month (5 weeks, graduation and father's Day) as long as the supply is there for the MK8 Wii U bundle I can see it selling in the 80K-100K range.

 

[reptilescorpio]

I ran an estimate the other day for WW PS4 sales based off of NPD numbers and general WW to US sales ratios. Pegged PS4 at around 8.5M. I think they're probably waiting to crack 10M as it's slowed down from a million a month

Yeah I'd expect them to update WW numbers at TGS 2014 at the very least, make sure Japanese devs/pubs know how damn big the install base is to hopefully get some interest.

 

[Michael Armbrust]

when is the next gaming event / conference?

Gamescom in August.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

when is the next gaming event / conference?

Gamescom in august.

 

[Canis lupus]

Because if they give the PS4 numbers, they will have to give Vita numbers too. That's also the reason why they grouped Vita and PSP numbers together when they release their financial results.

Nope thats not the reason. SCEA doesnt even know the thing exists. They're not bragging about numbers anymore because they'd have to provide them in bad days as well.

 

[FZZ]

More views than Wii U consoles sold soon. That is impressive.

You're ignoring the fact that Reggie explicitly said Hardware sales went up 4x the week AFTER MK8 came out. Meaning we would see the effect on sales for the console in June.

All the posts you're making are coming off as trolling.

 

[kasane]

a lot of wii owners bought mk8 thinking they could play it

 

[DrWong]

That is impressive.

Thanks.

 

[Tobor]

So Ubisoft is justified in their "withholding" strategy for the Wii U due to install base?

Every third party is justified in their Wii U strategy.

 

[dallow_bg]

Apparently, if it doesn't go from 33K to a million in 2 days, it's all a flop.

I think 6-digits is guaranteed for Wii U next month.

Ok, I laughed.

More views than Wii U consoles sold soon. That is impressive.

I laughed again.

 

[Biker19]

I don't know. I'm just throwing a number out there. PS4 hype has to die down at some point.

Even if so, PS4 will still sell more consoles than Xbox One, especially worldwide. Why?

1.) Advertising the PS4 as a gaming console than as a media machine (which Sony made that mistake with the PS3 & the same thing that Microsoft's doing now with Xbox One),

2.) Tons of upcoming exclusive games like Bloodborne, etc., &

3.) Superior multiplats.

 

[Donthizz#]

happy for the MLB team, congrats guys..

 

[AniHawk]

i had estimated 70k because 2 days is 2 days. wonder if i overestimated anything else. only other one may be the vita (i think i guessed 20k or 25k)

 

[Otakumegane]

Mario Kart Wii launched on April 27 in the US and sold 1.12 million copies in April 2008 according to NPD:

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/npd-us-april-game-revs-spike-on-gtaiv/1100-6191066/

It sold 787K over the next entire month in May 2008:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=311356

Granted this effect will be mitigated somewhat because of the WiiU's current audience being more "core" then the Wii during that time period.

 

[Plinko]

Mario Kart Wii launched on April 27 in the US and sold 1.12 million copies in April 2008 according to NPD:

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/npd-us-april-game-revs-spike-on-gtaiv/1100-6191066/

It sold 787K over the next entire month in May 2008:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=311356

As somebody already posted, Polygon had an article with Nintendo saying Wii U sales quadrupled in the week after it was released. Who knows if it extended throughout the month.

 

[kswiston]

Don't need to, it's a simple math equation.

The quote said Wii U sales for the week of Mario Kart 8 quadrupled the week before. Who knows what the week before was (probably lower than typical as fans waited for the bundle), and who knows how long the bump will last. People are going to set themselves up for disappointment if they are expecting huge sales.

Also, it needs to be repeated every single time a major title releases towards the end of the month, but the few days after launch are going to see disproportionately more sales than afterwards. Those 2 days of Wii U hardware boosts as people pick up MK8 will likely be bigger than the rest of the week.

 

[SwiftDeath]

when is the next gaming event / conference?

TGS or Gamescom probably :\

I'm not sure how you could really do that since the PS4 has released in many, many more markets in 2014 (if you were using NPD numbers from 2013 and the worldwide number they gave for the end of December.)

I've been using the ratios since Sony's announcements 5.3M, 6M, and 7M which all occured after they'd released in major territories [Jan, Feb, and March announcements]

------------------------

Also Major Nelson just tweeted this

Larry Hryb @majornelson · 2m
Back in the office for one quick day and then back out on the road I go...

Maybe a late MS PR inbound?

 

[SDCowboy]

Pretty much. I also still think the One outsold the U.

Well I would hope so. It would be absolutely pathetic if it didn't.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Ben Kuchera was right!

NPD is worthless, completely inaccurate

 

[Tripon]

Gamescom in August.

Gamescom in august.

when is the next gaming event / conference?

You'll see some announcements at Comic-Con in July.

 

[Insane Metal]

 

[spared]

Good job Nintendo, MK8 is also very well-marketed so far, it definitely helps. If they keep on delivering that kinda momentum with the right marketing ideas, they will keep on selling more Wii Us without a doubt.

 

[Bundy]

larry is fine

Larry Hryb ‏@majornelson 1 min
Back in the office for one quick day and then back out on the road I go...

Larry Hryb ‏@majornelson 39 sec Visualizza traduzione
But this time: It's for fun I am going to Connecticut to speak at my high school's commencement

 

[TheRealTalker]

:/


just waiting for the XO, PS4 estimates and rounding

please oh please

 

[gigantor21]

Holy shit, LOL.

The WiiU numbers are good (and deservedly so), but the lack of 2014 stuff is going to destroy any potential momentum this could've built up. Nintendo shrugging off third parties and dragging it's feet on HD development, building up the VC, and online functionality are all screwing it over royally.

 

[Flo_Evans]

Someone spill the beans already!

At least give us the ps4ne ratio!

Or is it 4:1???

 

[Kimawolf]

As somebody already posted, Polygon had an article with Nintendo saying Wii U sales quadrupled in the week after it was released. Who knows if it extended throughout the month.

Yeah thats what I am wondering about. Why are people saying it had no effect because games only sell on the launch weekend, even after Reggie came out and said it had a large impact a week after the game went on sale, which puts it squarely in june?

Are people just choosing to ignore it to post more Wii U jokes? And also I bet PS4 is probably at like 210k sold in May, and XB1 is at 70k or so.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Good job Nintendo, MK8 is also very well-marketed so far, it definitely helps. If they keep on delivering that kinda momentum with the right marketing ideas, they will keep on selling more Wii Us without a doubt.

Yeah, I'm sure they have a lot of more bigger releases to keep momentum....

...um...

....oh yeah, not until winter! Good job Nintendo!.

 

[wsippel]

Not much of a bump that first weekend for Wii U. I don't expect June to be much different.

If Amazon Germany is any indication, and it almost certainly isn't, things could get funny. Wii U slowly climbed the charts over the last few weeks since Mario Kart released and pretty much switched places with the Xbox One. Interestingly, it was at 40 or 45 when Mario Kart launched, hovered around 30 to 35 during E3, and just entered the top 20 today. Probably the effect of good word-of-mouth.

 

[Nothing1016]

Can anyone explain that 90% number? As we previously stated, the numbers just don't add up

 

[greg400]

The quote said Wii U sales for the week of Mario Kart 8 quadrupled the week before. Who knows what the week before was (probably lower than typical as fans waited for the bundle), and who knows how long the bump will last. People are going to set themselves up for disappointment if they are expecting huge sales.

Also, it needs to be repeated every single time a major title releases towards the end of the month, but the few days after launch are going to see disproportionately more sales than afterwards. Those 2 days of Wii U hardware boosts as people pick up MK8 will likely be bigger than the rest of the week.

http://www.polygon.com/2014/6/11/5801862/mario-kart-8-wii-u-sales

EDIT: Misread, quadrupling is quite an increase based on these current numbers for a single week.

 

[Interceptor]

So MK charted No.2 with 2 days on sale or am i missing something? Wii U numbers for June will be interesting.

 

[Plinko]

Oh, the spin at that graduation.

 

[N.Domixis]

Gruh! The most boring NPD thread ever. We need leaks.

 

[CukilaBanza]

Congrats to Nintendo and Sony. Impressive stats.

 

[Flame Lord]

Really glad that a game like Wolfenstein made the top 10.

 

[Michael Armbrust]

You'll see some announcements at Comic-Con in July.

We'll get a bit of info sure, but it's not really a gaming event/conference.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

You're ignoring the fact that Reggie explicitly said Hardware sales went up 4x the week AFTER MK8 came out. Meaning we would see the effect on sales for the console in June.

All the posts you're making are coming off as trolling.

So the sales increased from one week to the next by 4X, the same week that Nintendo released a bundle that included a free game. Isn't that a tiny sample size that really may not be indicative of anything?

 

[Spineker]

Holy shit, LOL.

The WiiU numbers are good (and deservedly so), but the lack of 2014 stuff is going to destroy any potential momentum this could've built up. Nintendo shrugging off third parties and dragging it's feet on HD development, building up the VC, and online functionality are all screwing it over royally.

Nailed it. I really wonder what the fuck they're doing sometimes.

 

[Plinko]

You have incorrect information.
http://www.polygon.com/2014/6/11/5801862/mario-kart-8-wii-u-sales

Sales of the Wii U console quadrupled the week after the release of Mario Kart 8, compared to the week prior, Fils-Aime said.

?

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

If Amazon Germany is any indication, and it almost certainly isn't, things could get funny. Wii U slowly climbed the charts over the last few weeks since Mario Kart released and pretty much switched places with the Xbox One. Interestingly, it was at 40 or 45 when Mario Kart launched, hovered around 30 to 35 during E3, and just entered the top 20 today. Probably the effect of good word-of-mouth.

:/

Why people keep posting Amazon numbers af if they were an accurate indicator of sales?....

 

[SykoTech]

More views than Wii U consoles sold soon. That is impressive.

Welp.

 

[greg400]

?

Yeah, misread it my mistake.

 

[miDnIghtEr20C]

Isn't TF selling better on 360 than the bone a pretty big deal? Like, really big?

We'll have to see how big a deal it is when LBP 3 comes out and see if it sells more on the PS3 over the PS4.

 

[prag16]

rofl If the WiiU was out there with it, it would be golden.

Japan edition: everybody is out there. ;(

 

[Gator86]

Nailed it. I really wonder what the fuck they're doing sometimes.

 

[Goodacre0081]

Maybe a late MS PR inbound?

I could see a statement being made about the increase in per-orders for the new $399 SKU instead.

 

[spared]

Yeah, I'm sure they have a lot of more bigger releases to keep momentum....

...um...

....oh yeah, not until winter! Good job Nintendo!.

There are games. I'm not worried. ^^

 

[SDCowboy]

So do we have any clue on the PS4 or Bone numbers yet?