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[nib95]

How much do you think Forza 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GT5: 2187 Days
Forza 3: 887

Team Size:
GT5: 110 employees
Forza 3: 305 employees

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GT5: 1,899,040 hours
Forza 3: 2,139,880 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GT5: $56,971,200
Forza 3: $64,196,400

Do you have a link to the number of days in development and number of staff in each developer?

Anyway, bad numbers for GT5 and PS3 in general. Good job it's a different story in Europe/Japan otherwise the franchise would have had an embarrassing showing given the enormity of the franchise.

It is, or at least was, Sony's biggest selling franchise to date. The release date change and all the rest must have really had an impact.

 

[DarkPanda]

GT5 is Sony's biggest franchise and for it to pull such underwhelming numbers - even when considering it only had a few days - would be pretty distressing for Sony. The fact that Returns and GT5 launched so close together and sold such similar amounts is no small matter. Now, of course, GT5 will go on to sell millions worldwide. It's doing quite well in Europe and Japan as well. But numbers and reception thus far would suggest it's not the critical and commercial hit that Sony both desired and needed.

GT5 came out too late. The Dude-Bros/casuals have moved on to FPSes (hence the COD numbers), racers aren't the guaranteed sellers they once were. GT5 won't have much of an impact, even in the long run.

 

[GitarooMan]

Forza 3 budget estimated at ~65 million...:lol :lol post of the thread

 

[Lebron]

How much do you think Forza 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GT5: 2187 Days
Forza 3: 887

Team Size:
GT5: 110 employees
Forza 3: 305 employees

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GT5: 1,899,040 hours
Forza 3: 2,139,880 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GT5: $56,971,200
Forza 3: $64,196,400

and just when I thought this couldn't get any crazier :lol

 

[goldenpp72]

Forza 3 budget estimated at ~65 million...:lol :lol post of the thread

isn't that more than halo reach and halo 3, lol, i'm sure MS would green light that.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

F
Ignoring variables of competition, release windows, console pricing, and such, GT5 sold in 3-4 days what Forza 2 sold in about 5 weeks in the US, give or take.

My opinion? It's impressive for a racing game on one console, but hardly the killer app that Sony positioned it as. If PS3 sales are relatively dry in December (~1 million), GT5 might struggle to reach 1 million by January, which was my original prediction for US sales.

stop speaking of GT5 in a vacuum, as if it were a new IP or something.

it's THE biggest IP Sony owns, and every release has approached or eclipsed 10 million units sold. That's the rarest of rare air. Forza was never expected to come close in overall sales; it doesn't have the heritage, fanbase or mindshare that GT does. hell, the entire franchise is only 5 years old or so. Gran Turismo goes back 3 fucking generations.

No, GT5 isn't just any old racing game with any old sales expectations. At least offer such thoughts through the lens of that reality.

Forza 3 budget estimated at ~65 million...:lol :lol post of the thread

god bless him for trying. but he tried much too hard. he should have known he was terribly wrong when he totaled up his numbers. I didn't want to LOL at his face...but it is worthy of face-LOL'ing.

 

[outunderthestars]

Anyone else notice that it looks like the psp go gas been discontinued. Stores that sold out on black friday have not gotten any more back in. Amazon, Walmart, seem to be out of the black one.

 

[Whipped Spartan]

Since this is an NPD thread... who cares?

Do people go in the non US sales threads and rant and rave about US sales?:lol


This is def my biggest gaf pet peeve now

 

[2 Minutes Turkish]

According to who, you?

And FWIW, it's marketing pales to previous entries in the series.

This post, in relation to the post it quote is such a fucking cop out it's borderline disgusting.

Seriously. Don't even try and deflect that shit.

To who? so you haven't seen the dozens of GT5 threads for the last year? Hell Bishop created a thread specifically for trolling. How many games get that?

On GAF (the place you're posting now) the game was being billed as the next coming. Considering there is a sizeable amount of Sony fans on GAF, the hype is hard to avoid. Don't even try and act like the game barely registered a blip on the radar.

 

[Xenon]

How much do you think Forza 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GT5: 2187 Days
Forza 3: 887

Team Size:
GT5: 110 employees
Forza 3: 305 employees

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GT5: 1,899,040 hours
Forza 3: 2,139,880 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GT5: $56,971,200
Forza 3: $64,196,400

Truespeed
The Rush Limbaugh of Sales Age
(Today, 09:28 PM)
Reply | Quote

 

[FrankT]

Truespeed
The Rush Limbaugh of Sales Age
(Today, 09:28 PM)
Reply | Quote

I like it. :lol

 

[Rainier]

I just noticed this from NPD's statement (in the OT)

Remember that this data set represents new physical retail sales only. We have begun to report on sales realized through other channels such as used game sales, digital distribution and mobile apps among others.

What the hell?

 

[legend166]

How many do you think it will sell for the whole month of December? Why, that's the biggest sales month of the year! One million copies at least, right?

Well let's see. If it sold 400k in 4 days, that's 100k a day.


December is a 5 week month. And as you say, it's a bigger month than November. Let's say there's a 25% increase. That means it will sell 125k per day.



Gran Turismo 5 will sell 4.375 million copies in December.

 

[2 Minutes Turkish]

:lol :lol :lol Shit I just noticed Truespeed's post.

He has reached a new level.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Can I throw out a (Probably dumb, but yet to be suggested) theory? This is the first year I haven't heard RRoD stories: Do you think consumer confidence increased enough in the 360 this year to cause this sales increase?

 

[jvm]

I just noticed this from NPD's statement (in the OT)

What the hell?

It's part of their whole-market report that comes out quarterly.

Report here: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...l_Revenues_Near_3B_For_First_Half_Of_2010.php

 

[Truespeed]

8 hour days for an AAA title are probably unrealistic, but OTOH I would imagine both the Polyphony Digital and Turn 10 pay flat salary, no overtime pay.

You realize that the hours per day and the cost per hour were just arbitrary numbers, right? Any constants could have been used and the results would have been similar. But, if it makes you feel better you can change them to 16 hours per day (18 in Japan) and $60 per hour.

 

[FrankT]

Can I throw out a (Probably dumb, but yet to be suggested) theory? This is the first year I haven't heard RRoD stories: Do you think consumer confidence increased enough in the 360 this year to cause this sales increase?

Eh thing of the past imo. They timed the release of Slim, old stock drop, $199 Slim, Reach, Fable, Kinect perfectly. It's showing this year. Roling thunder to borrow a phrase of old from GAF.

 

[jvm]

Can I throw out a (Probably dumb, but yet to be suggested) theory? This is the first year I haven't heard RRoD stories: Do you think consumer confidence increased enough in the 360 this year to cause this sales increase?

But without all the RRoD systems, wouldn't sales go DOWN, since people wouldn't be replacing their Xbox 360s at the previous rapid rate? I mean, really, think this through before you post, dude.

Edit: Also, I'm kind of surprised Microsoft didn't do another mass-banning to goose December sales a bit more.

 

[RustyNails]

So, um, Sony...we need to talk. You know I really love you and all. Heck, the past few years have been the best of my life. But that price tag...

 

[antonz]

Can I throw out a (Probably dumb, but yet to be suggested) theory? This is the first year I haven't heard RRoD stories: Do you think consumer confidence increased enough in the 360 this year to cause this sales increase?

I think its just a matter of rebranding themselves. They are still 99.9% dudebro but have managed to generate an Image that they are only 50% dudebro. This pretty much stole the HD market for motion controls.

Sony has basically just treated move as an oh yeah we got that but who cares device and they took the biggest opening hit in the Motion Wars

 

[Lebron]

Forza 3 budget estimated at ~65 million...:lol :lol post of the thread

You fools all thought it was the Halo box, hah!

 

[Dreams-Visions]

:lol :lol :lol Shit I just noticed Truespeed's post.

He has reached a new level.

the desperation was strong. an impressive failure of the normal checks & balances that accompany critical thinking. I assume he's staying away now and hoping that post disappears. It is rather embarrassing.

edit: no, he came back. bigger man than I.

 

[GavinGT]

How much do you think Forza 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GT5: 2187 Days
Forza 3: 887

Team Size:
GT5: 110 employees
Forza 3: 305 employees

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GT5: 1,899,040 hours
Forza 3: 2,139,880 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GT5: $56,971,200
Forza 3: $64,196,400

I doubt Turn 10 had all 305 employees working on it for 2 1/2 years straight.

Also, you're not factoring in microphone costs. They go through a LOT of microphones at PD.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

But without all the RRoD systems, wouldn't sales go DOWN, since people wouldn't be replacing their Xbox 360s at the previous rapid rate? I mean, really, think this through before you post, dude.

Wouldn't they just send out their 360s for repair instead of buying new ones? I heard a lot of people say that the 360 wasn't selling what it could in previous years because of the RRoD. I'm not talking about this month in particular, but the year as a whole.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Do people go in the non US sales threads and rant and rave about US sales?:lol

This is def my biggest gaf pet peeve now

Actually, that is something that I think would get you banned.

On GAF (the place you're posting now) the game was being billed as the next coming. Considering there is a sizeable amount of Sony fans on GAF, the hype is hard to avoid. Don't even try and act like the game barely registered a blip on the radar.

Yeah, there have been many threads in the past and posts stating how GT5 would be a sales megabuster. I wish we had access to post history searches as we could find some good gems. GT5's numbers defiantly do not coincide with GAF hype, and sales predictions for the game pre-release. It's selling good, just not great.

 

[clashfan]

How much do you think Forza 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GT5: 2187 Days
Forza 3: 887

Team Size:
GT5: 110 employees
Forza 3: 305 employees

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GT5: 1,899,040 hours
Forza 3: 2,139,880 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GT5: $56,971,200
Forza 3: $64,196,400

notsureifserious.gif

This has to be a joke right?

Or a post from a 12 year old?

 

[fastford58]

You realize that the hours per day and the cost per hour were just arbitrary numbers, right? Any constants could have been used and the results would have been similar. But, if it makes you feel better you can change them to 16 hours per day (18 in Japan) and $60 per hour.

Well, shit. If you can make up numbers...we all can.

 

[Four_Chamber]

GT5 AI.

:lol

 

[Rainier]

It's part of their whole-market report that comes out quarterly.

Report here: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...l_Revenues_Near_3B_For_First_Half_Of_2010.php

I'm more referring to if these sales should really count. If a book is said to have sold a million copies, everyone knows this number means for the purchase of a new book. If you counted in used book store sales, it would give inflated numbers that don't mean anything to the creator or publisher. Unless you're trying to make the gaming industry appear more healthy than it really is, I don't see the poin... oh wait, I think I just figured it out.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Well, shit. If you can make up numbers...we all can.

*tries to imagine an NPD thread where everyone just...made up their own numbers*

:lol

 

[szaromir]

But without all the RRoD systems, wouldn't sales go DOWN, since people wouldn't be replacing their Xbox 360s at the previous rapid rate? I mean, really, think this through before you post, dude.

Edit: Also, I'm kind of surprised Microsoft didn't do another mass-banning to goose December sales a bit more.

Wow, we are still getting those kinds of posts. If that were true, wouldn't 360's attach ratio be brought significantly down when compared to its competitors?

 

[GarthVaderUK]

Wow, we are still getting those kinds of posts. If that were true, wouldn't 360's attach ratio be brought significantly down when compared to its competitors?

He's taking the piss

 

[Shurs]

So GT5:

*Had its release date announced a week before the game arrived on shelves, which led to it being MIA from Sunday circulars.

*A commercial that started airing three days before its release.

*Went on sale the day after new releases normally go on sale.

*No Black Friday deals save for one at Kmart where you had to be a member of their rewards program.

It's not hard to see how things went wrong this month.

I expect the game will be in the top ten for December.

 

[jvm]

I'm more referring to if these sales should really count. If a book is said to have sold a million copies, everyone knows this number means for the purchase of a new book. If you counted in used book store sales, it would give inflated numbers that don't mean anything to the creator or publisher. Unless you're trying to make the gaming industry appear more healthy than it really is, I don't see the poin... oh wait, I think I just figured it out.

I think it's a little less nefarious than that. It's a partial answer to the question "How much do people spend on games?" Whether they spend it on new, used, online, or otherwise, it's a measure of how much disposable income they're willing to spend on this industry's products.

 

[FrankT]

Wow, we are still getting those kinds of posts. If that were true, wouldn't 360's attach ratio be brought significantly down when compared to its competitors?

Pretty sure that was tongue firmly in cheek comment drawing back to Nov 09.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

So GT5:

*Had its release date announced a week before the game arrived on shelves, which led to it being MIA from Sunday circulars.

*A commercial that started airing three days before its release.

*Went on sale the day after new releases normally go on sale.

*No Black Friday deals save for one at Kmart where you had to be a member of their rewards program.

It's not hard to see how things went wrong this month.

I expect the game will be in the top ten for December.

yes, I'm sure GT5 floated under the radar of gamers...

this thread truly has everything one could dream of.

F5 F5 F5

 

[unomas]

This momentum by MS is unprecedented. I never believed they could beat Wii in Nov and then they go out and not only beat Wii but barely come in below DS. Fucking insane. You have got to hand it to MS. They have left Sony in the dust in America.

They've done everything they can slowly but surely to bury the PS3, I actually just sold my PS3, needed some extra cash and nothing is coming for awhile that I really want so I figured why not sell it. Apples to apples the 360 unfortunately trumps it games wise, and with all the extra features like ESPN now it's a no brainer. The PS3 needs a massive overhaul in it's online system, the user interface just isn't anywhere near as friendly as the 360's. I feel sorry for Sony, but damn they need to pick it up before this beating continues. I initially got rid of my 360 a year ago for a PS3, but one year later I'm back because the features, and online system are better. I really hope Sony get's things going, it would be unfortunate to see them lag so far behind the rest of this gen.

 

[jvm]

He's taking the piss

*ding ding*

Edit: I'll try to be less subtle in the future.

 

[Ashes]

So GT5:

*Had its release date announced a week before the game arrived on shelves, which led to it being MIA from Sunday circulars.

*A commercial that started airing three days before its release.

*Went on sale the day after new releases normally go on sale.

*No Black Friday deals save for one at Kmart where you had to be a member of their rewards program.

It's not hard to see how things went wrong this month.

I expect the game will be in the top ten for December.

I expect it actually to be out of the top ten.

 

[Shurs]

yes, I'm sure GT5 floated under the radar of gamers...

this thread truly has everything one could dream of.

F5 F5 F5

You don't think that any of that effected sales?

Really?

 

[Konosuke]

Umm, considering GT5 released on the 25th and that data ends on the 27th, 400k isn't bad right?

I'm new to sales-age.

 

[nib95]

yes, I'm sure GT5 floated under the radar of gamers...

this thread truly has everything one could dream of.

F5 F5 F5

Wow, it's as if you're on some sort of mission here.


Anyway, I don't know what else the explanation could be. Clearly the points he made probably did have some sort of impact. I guess the only way to know for sure is to wait and see what December holds for GT5 sales. Then we'll see if the Gran Turismo franchise lore has just worn off in the US or not. But I'm sure all the things he labelled above, coupled with Black Ops (8.5m??!!!!) and AC didn't help.

 

[user_nat]

I expect it actually to be out of the top ten.

Last years top 10 bottomed out at 650k.

So very possible it will be out of the top 10. I still think it will increase in sales though.

 

[FrankT]

Last years top 10 bottomed out at 650k.

So very possible it will be out of the top 10. I still think it will increase in sales though.

Last year we had non combined SKUs as well.

Edit: Though this could work to it's advantage to make it as well.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Anyway, I don't know what else the explanation could be. Clearly the points he made probably did have some sort of impact. I guess the only way to know for sure is to wait and see what December holds for GT5 sales. Then we'll see if the Gran Turismo franchise lore has just worn off in the US or not. But I'm sure all the things he labelled above, coupled with Black Ops (8.5m??!!!!) and AC didn't help.

we will indeed see.

 

[adamsapple]

You don't think that any of that effected sales?

Really?

Of a game in a franchise as revered as Gran Turismo ?

 

[Whipped Spartan]

Why are people overthinking this GT5 thing so much. Racing games don't really do to well in the US any more. Isn't this something we all accept now?



I know it has some humor to it because Sony thought it was going to sell milions but what did people think it was going do?

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

stop speaking of GT5 in a vacuum, as if it were a new IP or something.

it's THE biggest IP Sony owns, and every release has approached or eclipsed 10 million units sold. That's the rarest of rare air. Forza was never expected to come close in overall sales; it doesn't have the heritage, fanbase or mindshare that GT does. hell, the entire franchise is only 5 years old or so. Gran Turismo goes back 3 fucking generations.

No, GT5 isn't just any old racing game with any old sales expectations. At least offer such thoughts through the lens of that reality.

I agree. If you take that the rhetoric that "GT is Sony's biggest franchise" that's been thrown around here for years at face value, 400k in a few days is poor. As posted above, Fable 3 did noticeably better in October, and it's MS' 3rd biggest exclusive (5th if you count Mass Effect and Left 4 Dead) in the US at best. Donkey Kong, a mid-tier Nintendo franchise, is slightly ahead, and will likely leapfrog it further in December.

But taken in the reality of this generation (where racing games not named Mario Kart barely sniff 500k on one platform in one territory, Forza 2 and 3 sold roughly 1/2 as much in similar timeframes, and quality games like Split/Second and Blur fucking bombed), 400k is pretty good.

So I think it's more of a case of gamers having unrealistic expectations for the market, rather than the game being a massive flop. I wonder what Sony's internal projections were. MS has to be smiling about this. They didn't invest tens of millions of dollars into the Forza franchise and give away literally millions of copies of F2/F3 as stocking stuffers just to watch GT5 walk in and be a system seller again. I'd say the Forza franchise served its purpose - it sated a large enough chunk of the sim racer fanbase to dull GT5's system seller appeal. Prologue probably didn't help, especially at $40. And the launch fiasco was an embarrassment for everyone involved.

Going forward in the US, Sony is really going to have to hang its hat on Killzone 3 and Uncharted 3 being big hits in 2011 to sustain US sales in the absence of a price drop. SOCOM might be their big surprise of the year, as most tactical shooter devs have completely dropped the ball as of late and there is a gaping hole that hasn't been filled since Vegas 2 came out. I expect LBP2 and Infamous 2 will be good/great games, but will sell in the 500k-750k range in the states and be relative non-factors.

 

[Truespeed]

notsureifserious.gif

This has to be a joke right?

Or a post from a 12 year old?

Are you done stealth editing?