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[chubigans]

Okay let's do some general calculations:

Number of people who have been banned in this month's NPD thread = 1

Number of people who will be banned in this month's NPD thread if this retarded meme continues to grow in popularity = many

I think the statistics speak for themselves!

Ah nuts.

Guess I'll take the next airplane-in-sunset.jpg outta here.

 

[apana]

First of all , Gran Turismo did underperform a little but I'm still sticking with 10-12 million lifetime. I still love all the damage control though. :lol

Second, didn't NSMB Wii see an increase in sales going into December? Maybe Donkey Kong Country will see an increase as well. Can DKCR match the 8 million sold of the original DKC over its lifetime? I think it can considering legs and all that, which will make Donkey Kong as big as Zelda. Also some people are saying that Nintendo didn't market DKCR but I'm wondering how you guys know this?

 

[Anticitizen One]

Is anyone really surprised at the sony sale numbers. Historically, Playstation sales only do really well in the years when a new Naughty Dog title is released.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

I really can't believe some of you actually think that the 360 sales are anything but disappointing compared with the PS3's solid sales. Let's do some general calculations:

360 sales: 1,370,000
PS3 sales: 530,000

Amount of 360s sold as Kinect bundles: let's say 40%, so 548,000
PS3 move bundles: let's say 20%, so 106,000

Kinects sold as losses: they lose about $50 per bundle that they could have made by selling it standalone, factor in shipping and extra weight, round that off to -$76 lost per bundle, at a staggering $41 million lost in sales.
PS3 moves sold as losses: the pack in and the standalone bundle for Move is exactly the same, so Sony loses no money. Let's call that a net gain of $15 million.

MS commercial budget to achieve these sales: $500,000,000
Sony commercial budget to achieve these sales: lets say $20,000,000

Total overall holiday cash flow:
MS -$541,000,000
Sony ~+$100,000,000

I commend Sony for taking this holiday season and really making a profit, unlike it's competitors. They are truely in it to win it.

Just when the thread was getting a little dull..................

 

[SonOfABeep]

Is anyone really surprised at the sony sale numbers. Historically, Playstation sales only do really well in the years when a new Naughty Dog title is released.

Was the Metal Gear bump bigger than the Uncharted months? I don't keep track of these things, but I feel like it was.

 

[Shurs]

Black Friday deals for some of the games in the Top Ten.

Madden
Wal-Mart- $29
Best Buy- $35
Kmart- $40
Toys R Us- Part of Buy One Get One For $5 Deal

Fable 3
Best Buy- $40
Kmart- $40
Target- $35
Sears- $40
Toys R Us- Part of Buy One Get One For $5 Deal

NFS: Hot Pursuit
Best Buy- $35
Kmart- $35
Target- $35
Toys R Us- Part of Buy One Get One For $5 Deal
Sears- $40 HD, $30 Wii

 

[Stripper13]

The PD employee number is available on their website, the T10 number came from an interview one of the T10 producers did with Gamasutra. As for the development days, it's simply the difference between the GT5 release date and GT4 release date and likewise for Forza 3 (yes, higly inaccurate (especially for GT5), but those are the only numbers I could find.

Regardless, of how inaccurate the numbers are, one constant is true - I pulled shit out of my ass.

Fixed for accuracy.

Ouch, even the juniors are piling on. Don't feel bad, though, it's not like you had any to begin with

Well done. So sorry that I am a junior and have no intelligence.

 

[nib95]

Out of curiosity anyone have numbers for how much GT3 and GT4 sold in their opening month? (However many or few days that may have been.)

I guess what's especially weird about GT5's numbers is that it would be wrong to say the franchise had lost it's mojo based on GT5P alone, which has gone on to sell as much as the other prologue versions (Concept and GT4 Prologue), albeit quite slowly.

Really interested to see how GT5's sales end at the end of this generation. The question being, will it top 10 million.

 

[SonOfABeep]

Fixed for accuracy.



Well done. So sorry that I am a junior and have no intelligence.

If it isn't already, insulting based on member status should be a no-no on this board.

 

[MechaX]

Well done. So sorry that I am a junior and have no intelligence.

"You must have this little intelligence to comprehend calculations of this magnitude."

 

[Stripper13]

Okay let's do some general calculations:

Number of people who have been banned in this month's NPD thread = 1

Number of people who will be banned in this month's NPD thread if this retarded meme continues to grow in popularity = many

I think the statistics speak for themselves!

:'(

All that wasted potential.

Well at least we're clear on the mod stance.

 

[Jive Turkey]

Oh my God...I step away from GAF long enough to do the dishes and look what happens.

 

[Lion Heart]

Out of curiosity anyone have numbers for how much GT3 and GT4 sold in their opening month? (However many or few days that may have been.)

I guess what's especially weird about GT5's numbers is that it would be wrong to say the franchise had lost it's mojo based on GT5P alone, which has gone on to sell as much as the other prologue versions (Concept and GT4 Prologue), albeit quite slowly.

Really interested to see how GT5's sales end at the end of this generation. The question being, will it top 10 million.

Like I said GT4

1 GRAN TURISMO 4 Sony $ 26,165,740 532,219

 

[Relix]

PS3 Fail. Wow :lol :lol

 

[OldJadedGamer]

I guess what's especially weird about GT5's numbers is that it would be wrong to say the franchise had lost it's mojo based on GT5P alone, which has gone on to sell as much as the other prologue versions (Concept and GT4 Prologue), albeit quite slowly.

GT5P was the first ever Prologue sold in NPD. There are no other Prologues to compare to.

 

[Mrbob]

Out of curiosity anyone have numbers for how much GT3 and GT4 sold in their opening month? (However many or few days that may have been.)

I guess what's especially weird about GT5's numbers is that it would be wrong to say the franchise had lost it's mojo based on GT5P alone, which has gone on to sell as much as the other prologue versions (Concept and GT4 Prologue), albeit quite slowly.

Really interested to see how GT5's sales end at the end of this generation. The question being, will it top 10 million.

Here is the thing about GT. The strongest territory for sales is Europe, so looking at USA sales won't come close to telling the whole story. However judging the first couple days sales I'm guessing GT5 will be around a million sold after December, and with years to pile on sales it will probably end somewhere between 2 to 2.5 million in the USA. Which is around the same ball park as GT4. GT sales trajectory depends on Europe since it is the strongest territory for sales. For example sales of GT4:

By March 2010, Gran Turismo 4 had shipped 1.27 million copies in Japan, 3.05 million in North America, 6.56 million in Europe, and 170,000 in Asia for a total of 11.06 million copies.[1] It is the second highest-selling game in the Gran Turismo franchise ahead of Gran Turismo but behind Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec respectively.

 

[Gary Whitta]

Wow @ these numbers. I predicted 360 would be the top selling console this holiday, looks like I was right! But I didn't expect PS3 to put in such a poor performance.

 

[nib95]

GT5P was the first ever Prologue sold in NPD. There are no other Prologues to compare to.

I see. In that case, that puts things in perspective. Possibly just relative to install base, but either way, can't wait to see what next months numbers are.

 

[Whipped Spartan]

Can we all do one of these for the class?

How much do you think GOW 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GOW3: 730 Days
Dantes Inferno: 7 (according to reception I am left to assume this is true)

Team Size:
GOW3: 510 employees
Dantes Inferno: 5 employees (Again I came up with these numbers off safe assumptions)

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GOW3: 2,978,400 hours
Dantes Inferno: 280 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GOW3: $896,352,000
Dante's Inferno: $8,400

 

[Truespeed]

Nobody's arguing with your conclusions

It's the "calculations" that will go down in NPD history.

I'd like to be proven wrong, but I probably can't. It's all really hypothetical and speculation, unless you have access to the real numbers. No one really knows what it cost to make these games. I just thew out some numbers, unfortunately, the jabroni's were more fixated on highlighting the obvious fact that some game developers work more than 8 hours per day.

 

[Talon]

I really can't believe some of you actually think that the 360 sales are anything but disappointing compared with the PS3's solid sales. Let's do some general calculations:

360 sales: 1,370,000
PS3 sales: 530,000

Amount of 360s sold as Kinect bundles: let's say 40%, so 548,000
PS3 move bundles: let's say 20%, so 106,000

Kinects sold as losses: they lose about $50 per bundle that they could have made by selling it standalone, factor in shipping and extra weight, round that off to -$76 lost per bundle, at a staggering $41 million lost in sales.
PS3 moves sold as losses: the pack in and the standalone bundle for Move is exactly the same, so Sony loses no money. Let's call that a net gain of $15 million.

MS commercial budget to achieve these sales: $500,000,000
Sony commercial budget to achieve these sales: lets say $20,000,000

Total overall holiday cash flow:
MS -$541,000,000
Sony ~+$100,000,000

I commend Sony for taking this holiday season and really making a profit, unlike it's competitors. They are truely in it to win it.

Two thumbs up.

 

[Huevos de Oro]

Oh come on. The writing is already on the wall.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Can we all do one of these for the class?

duckroll says to put the kabosh on this sort of stuff or get teh bannage.

 

[Stripper13]

Can we all do one of these for the class?

How much do you think GOW 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GOW3: 730 Days
Dantes Inferno: 7 (according to reception I am left to assume this is true)

Team Size:
GOW3: 510 employees
Dantes Inferno: 5 employees (Again I came up with these numbers off safe assumptions)

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GOW3: 2,978,400 hours
Dantes Inferno: 280 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GOW3: $896,352,000
Dante's Inferno: $8,400

Umm... edit/del nao!

 

[soundscream]

Can we all do one of these for the class?

How much do you think GOW 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GOW3: 730 Days
Dantes Inferno: 7 (according to reception I am left to assume this is true)

Team Size:
GOW3: 510 employees
Dantes Inferno: 5 employees (Again I came up with these numbers off safe assumptions)

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GOW3: 2,978,400 hours
Dantes Inferno: 280 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GOW3: $896,352,000
Dante's Inferno: $8,400

 

[Truespeed]

Can we all do one of these for the class?

How much do you think GOW 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GOW3: 730 Days
Dantes Inferno: 7 (according to reception I am left to assume this is true)

Team Size:
GOW3: 510 employees
Dantes Inferno: 5 employees (Again I came up with these numbers off safe assumptions)

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GOW3: 2,978,400 hours
Dantes Inferno: 280 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GOW3: $896,352,000
Dante's Inferno: $8,400

Trying too hard?

 

[Megadragon15]

Stuff

Okay let's do some general calculations:

Number of people who have been banned in this month's NPD thread = 1

Number of people who will be banned in this month's NPD thread if this retarded meme continues to grow in popularity = many

I think the statistics speak for themselves!

Someone didn't read this warning.

 

[Vorg]

Can we all do one of these for the class?

How much do you think GOW 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GOW3: 730 Days
Dantes Inferno: 7 (according to reception I am left to assume this is true)

Team Size:
GOW3: 510 employees
Dantes Inferno: 5 employees (Again I came up with these numbers off safe assumptions)

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GOW3: 2,978,400 hours
Dantes Inferno: 280 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GOW3: $896,352,000
Dante's Inferno: $8,400

Read Duckroll's post.

 

[Deuterium]

I really can't believe some of you actually think that the 360 sales are anything but disappointing compared with the PS3's solid sales. Let's do some general calculations:

360 sales: 1,370,000
PS3 sales: 530,000

Amount of 360s sold as Kinect bundles: let's say 40%, so 548,000
PS3 move bundles: let's say 20%, so 106,000

Kinects sold as losses: they lose about $50 per bundle that they could have made by selling it standalone, factor in shipping and extra weight, round that off to -$76 lost per bundle, at a staggering $41 million lost in sales.
PS3 moves sold as losses: the pack in and the standalone bundle for Move is exactly the same, so Sony loses no money. Let's call that a net gain of $15 million.

MS commercial budget to achieve these sales: $500,000,000
Sony commercial budget to achieve these sales: lets say $20,000,000

Total overall holiday cash flow:
MS -$541,000,000
Sony ~+$100,000,000

I commend Sony for taking this holiday season and really making a profit, unlike it's competitors. They are truely in it to win it.

Sony should definitely hire you to write up their press release for next month. Masterful! More spin then a Pulsar.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

I'd like to be proven wrong, but I probably can't. It's all really hypothetical and speculation, unless you have access to the real numbers. No one really knows what it cost to make these games. I just thew out some numbers, unfortunately, the jabroni's were more fixated on highlighting the obvious fact that some game developers work more than 8 hours per day.

The closest thing you can do is get a list of the credits and have someone in the industry familiar with development cycles (likely a producer or finance type) to estimate how long each person was likely on a project given what's known about the game (number of assets, the types of assets, gameplay systems, parts of the game engine, etc). You can then use that and the average salary for that person's position in that location in the world to get a very very rough estimate.

That's the best you can do. And it can still be widely inaccurate due to all the assumptions you need to make.

 

[T.M. MacReady]

So NFS sold less than 30k more than GT5, despite being on 4 platforms, being on sale for 2 extra weeks, and having its price slashed drastically in black friday sales.


Why are people claiming bomb for GT5 again? Sales-age really does show you a whole other side of Gaf.

 

[Stripper13]

I'd like to be proven wrong, but I probably can't. It's all really hypothetical and speculation, unless you have access to the real numbers. No one really knows what it cost to make these games. I just thew out some numbers, unfortunately, the jabroni's were more fixated on highlighting the obvious fact that some game developers work more than 8 hours per day.

That is not the biggest issue with your calculations.

The biggest issue is that you pulled a couple of out-of-context figures that were floating around, attached some bullshit figures, and then multiplied them for what is sure to be one of the biggest 'assumptions' ever made on GAF.

And the reason you can't be proven wrong is because making up numbers and calculations is/was bannable - so anything even remotely as unrealistic as what you posted will result in a ban.

 

[ZedIndyLil]

This generation: most fascinating system war EVAR. Very interesting to look at coming months to see if 360 has truly reinvented itself. Wii still has price advantage, though, which is increasingly important in this horrific economy.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

That is not the biggest issue with your calculations.

The biggest issue is that you pulled a couple of out-of-context figures that were floating around, attached some bullshit figures, and then multiplied them for what is sure to be one of the biggest 'assumptions' ever made on GAF.

And the reason you can't be proven wrong is because making up numbers and calculations is/was bannable - so anything even remotely as unrealistic as what you posted will result in a ban.

I'm really surprised it actually needed to be explained.

but yes, nail meets head.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

So NFS sold less than 30k more than GT5, despite being on 4 platforms, being on sale for 2 extra weeks, and having its price slashed drastically in black friday sales.


Why are people claiming bomb for GT5 again? Sales-age really does show you a whole other side of Gaf.

People use "bomba" for a range of things, from simple underperforming to massive disappointment to silly joke due to a game going on sale really fast. You have to know the context.

 

[frAntic_Frog]

i think it boiled down to COD vs GT5.....

an FPS vs a sim-oriented racing game

a game that features instant gratification, blood, guns, rocket launchers, fast paced online play

vs

a grindfest racing collectathon racer that focuses on driving the perfect racing line (not knocking GT5...its my racing GOTY)



but lets face it....casuals win in this battle

 

[skyfinch]

So NFS sold less than 30k more than GT5, despite being on 4 platforms, being on sale for 2 extra weeks, and having its price slashed drastically in black friday sales.


Why are people claiming bomb for GT5 again? Sales-age really does show you a whole other side of Gaf.

The way people were hyping GT5 made it seem as if it would sell over a million in one day.

 

[Jive Turkey]

Really? I thought I was keeping up pretty well but I missed this.

Not counting Wario64's Banned (lol) just a quick scan it would seem H_Prestige and Flying_Phoenix are now taking a break.

 

[mj1108]

I really can't believe some of you actually think that the 360 sales are anything but disappointing compared with the PS3's solid sales. Let's do some general calculations:

360 sales: 1,370,000
PS3 sales: 530,000

Amount of 360s sold as Kinect bundles: let's say 40%, so 548,000
PS3 move bundles: let's say 20%, so 106,000

Kinects sold as losses: they lose about $50 per bundle that they could have made by selling it standalone, factor in shipping and extra weight, round that off to -$76 lost per bundle, at a staggering $41 million lost in sales.
PS3 moves sold as losses: the pack in and the standalone bundle for Move is exactly the same, so Sony loses no money. Let's call that a net gain of $15 million.

MS commercial budget to achieve these sales: $500,000,000
Sony commercial budget to achieve these sales: lets say $20,000,000

Total overall holiday cash flow:
MS -$541,000,000
Sony ~+$100,000,000

I commend Sony for taking this holiday season and really making a profit, unlike it's competitors. They are truely in it to win it.

Wow... :lol Just.... wow.... :lol

 

[Truespeed]

If "lets do some general calculations" isn't a meme by next NPD, I'll eat my hat.

Sorry Truespeed, I really am. :lol

If it's any consolation, I agree with your numbers We should collaborate on Google spreadsheets some time.

 

[Rainier]

So NFS sold less than 30k more than GT5, despite being on 4 platforms, being on sale for 2 extra weeks, and having its price slashed drastically in black friday sales.


Why are people claiming bomb for GT5 again? Sales-age really does show you a whole other side of Gaf.

Agreed. Also, people are forgetting to take into account that Need for Speed is getting better reviews than GT5, so that also has to factor into the numbers.

 

[frAntic_Frog]

The way people were hyping GT5 made it seem as if it would sell over a million in one day.

1 million if worldwide launch were all one day combined (which it accomplished NA+EU+JP)

but 1 million for a racing game in US? on day one? sorry but what?

 

[MidnightScott]

I don't know why people claim bomber...

GT5 came out like when? Nov. 25th?

DKCR came out Nov. 21st...

December NPD will be when we can really see what happens. I expect Donkey Kong to move up the list.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

If it's any consolation, I agree with your numbers We should collaborate on Google spreadsheets some time.

we love you man. take none of this personally. :lol

 

[I NEED SCISSORS]

:lol

 

[Stripper13]

So NFS sold less than 30k more than GT5, despite being on 4 platforms, being on sale for 2 extra weeks, and having its price slashed drastically in black friday sales.


Why are people claiming bomb for GT5 again? Sales-age really does show you a whole other side of Gaf.

For the record - I don't think GT5 is a bomb, I just don't like the way Sony handled the release.

That being said, the differences are:

GT5 = Sony's premier franchise, most anticipated PS3 release this gen, 4-5+ years of development, massive budget, a fair bit of advertising, huge fanbase, an assumed large amount of hype, the most popular sim racer available.

NFS = A franchise that was in decline (or at least stagnant), not particularly hyped or anticipated, 1-2 year dev cycle with a fraction of the budget (assumed), not much advertising (certainly no more GT5), one of many, many good/decent arcade racers.

As you can see, the comparing the two doesn't really work. Outside of the fact that they're racers, they're very different and the expectations are (and should be) wildly different.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Black Friday deals for some of the games in the Top Ten.

Madden
Wal-Mart- $29
Best Buy- $35
Kmart- $40
Toys R Us- Part of Buy One Get One For $5 Deal

Fable 3
Best Buy- $40
Kmart- $40
Target- $35
Sears- $40
Toys R Us- Part of Buy One Get One For $5 Deal

NFS: Hot Pursuit
Best Buy- $35
Kmart- $35
Target- $35
Toys R Us- Part of Buy One Get One For $5 Deal
Sears- $40 HD, $30 Wii

I'm not sure what this is trying to put forth. Didn't stuff like Enslaved and Fallout: New Vegas have similar (if not better) deals but didn't chart?

 

[Gary Whitta]

I think the fact that you can now get a really good Blu-ray player for basically $100 is really eating into the PS3's appeal. A year or so ago when BD players were around $300 the PS3 was a great proposition by being a combo BD/game machine for the price of a standalone BD. But now the standalones are so cheap I think a lot of potential BD buyers are looking elsewhere.

Sony needs to kick in a price drop for the PS3 ASAP. $249 minimum, $199 if they really want to stop the cancer. Ideally they should have done this before the holidays. PS3 just can't compete against two rivals selling for a full $100 less, and we're seeing the evidence of that with the system trailing almost a million units behind both this month.

 

[AniHawk]

Wow at the 360. Seriously, outside of the DS, I don't think there's any system that's done this well 5 years into its lifespan. I'd say there's a very good chance it could outsell the Wii in December as well now, and an even likelier chance that it will be the best-selling home console YTD.

Gran Turismo 5 is... kinda... not doing what I had thought it would do. GT4 was on the bigger userbase when it sold 600k, but that was during February, and GT5 hit in November. If it doesn't have legs, the series might be in serious danger of being done as a megafranchise.

DKCR did well for what it was, and it'll very likely wind up a million seller by January.

 

[Ashes]

If it's any consolation, I agree with your numbers We should collaborate on Google spreadsheets some time.

I thought you were kidding as well. Gt5 didn't take five years, it took 7.