Support NeoGAF

[Cth]

Ah well, there goes my plan to do a "let's do some calculations" meme using Doc Brown's chalkboard explanation of the skewed 1985 timeline.

 

[AniHawk]

Sony needs to kick in a price drop for the PS3 ASAP. $249 minimum, $199 if they really want to stop the cancer. Ideally they should have done this before the holidays. PS3 just can't compete against two rivals selling for a full $100 less, and we're seeing the evidence of that with the system trailing almost a million units behind both this month.

They'll have to do it next year, which should give them some nice momentum if timed properly. They have a ton of exclusive games coming out in 2011.

 

[nib95]

The way people were hyping GT5 made it seem as if it would sell over a million in one day.

I don't think realistically people expected that. I didn't see any predictions in that range anyway. My personal prediction for example, was 670k, but I didn't bank on some of those other titles selling as well as they did either.

But it's still quite a lot less than I'd predicted. Again, December should be interesting.

What is the reason for the big 360 spike, Kinect? Any details on how many of those console sales were Kinect bundles? How about Kinect numbers in general?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The way people were hyping GT5 made it seem as if it would sell over a million in one day.

Why would it sell a million day 1 when it never did even on the PS2 .

 

[Truespeed]

That is not the biggest issue with your calculations.

The biggest issue is that you pulled a couple of out-of-context figures that were floating around, attached some bullshit figures, and then multiplied them for what is sure to be one of the biggest 'assumptions' ever made on GAF.

And the reason you can't be proven wrong is because making up numbers and calculations is/was bannable - so anything even remotely as unrealistic as what you posted will result in a ban.

What numbers did I make up? The development days? The number of employee's? Using 8 hours to represent a working day?

 

[FrankT]

I think the fact that you can now get a really good Blu-ray player for basically $100 is really eating into the PS3's appeal. A year or so ago when BD players were around $300 the PS3 was a great proposition by being a combo BD/game machine for the price of a standalone BD. But now the standalones are so cheap I think a lot of potential BD buyers are looking elsewhere.

Sony needs to kick in a price drop for the PS3 ASAP. $249 minimum, $199 if they really want to stop the cancer. Ideally they should have done this before the holidays. PS3 just can't compete against two rivals selling for a full $100 less, and we're seeing the evidence of that with the system trailing almost a million units behind both this month.

Well last year for Black Friday week alone they did 440k as compared to 530k for the entire month this year. Price drop/slim plus UC2 really gave it a boost. Again I wouldn't be surprised by a new form factor next fall with a price cut. Maybe a bit rough in between.

 

[apana]

Sony have to make sure that FF Versus 13 will be exclusive to PS3. I don't really see any other big system seller exclusives for 2011.

 

[PSGames]

They'll have to do it next year, which should give them some nice momentum if timed properly. They have a ton of exclusive games coming out in 2011.

Having exclusives and having exclusives that will actually sell hardware are two different things.

 

[chespace]

How much do you think Forza 3 cost? Let's do some general calculations:

Development days:
GT5: 2187 Days
Forza 3: 887

Team Size:
GT5: 110 employees
Forza 3: 305 employees

Man Hours (assume an 8 hour day)
GT5: 1,899,040 hours
Forza 3: 2,139,880 hours

Labor Cost (assume $30 per hour)
GT5: $56,971,200
Forza 3: $64,196,400

:lol Um, no.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

I think the fact that people can get a really good Blu-ray player for basically $100 is really eating into the PS3's appeal. A year or so ago when BD players were around $300 the PS3 was a great proposition by being a combo BD/game machine for the price of a standalone BD. But now the standalones are so cheap I think a lot of potential BD buyers are looking elsewhere.

Sony needs to kick in a price drop for the PS3 ASAP. $249 minimum, $199 if they really want to stop the cancer. Ideally they should have done this before the holidays. PS3 just can't compete against two rivals selling for a full $100 less, and we're seeing the evidence of that with the system trailing almost a million units behind both this month.

honestly, Gary? every year we talk about the notion that all the PS3 needs is a price drop and AAA titles in order to start catching up. Every year, it gets a price drop and very high-quality AAA titles. And it does no catching up.

Perhaps this is in part because the competition can go lower than Sony can. just the nature of their hardware being less expensive. And of course, they also have software and unique features of their own to help sell their systems.

I'm not really sure what Sony needs to do to realize break-out sales for the PS3, but I don't think the software is the problem and their competition won't stand by and watch them beat their consoles in price. So the solution has to come from somewhere else. And its entirely possible that Sony may not sneak out of 3rd place this generation. Perhaps Nintendo and Microsoft have captured enough of the mind-share to no longer be at risk of being passed.

idk, really.

:lol Um, no.

sorry, Che. the math is sound.

 

[Cipherr]

GT5's positioning isn't surprising. The franchise isn't a blockbluster

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

Sony had to have known they conceded this holiday.

GT5 alone wasn't going to cut it. You need more than one piece of software to entice a frenzy.

Sony had their Move, just like MS had their Kinect. MS made their waggle into something. Sony sent theirs out there and it isnt doing shit.

Oh yeah, GO GO GO Donkey Kong Country.

So in one month in the US, the 360 managed to cancel out a fair chunk of all the 'catch up' the PS3 was doing WW?

December could get ugly.

Yeah....any catching up the PS3 managed to do, the 360 is about to completely wipe out with decembers Numbers. The PS3 is looking fucking anemic and the 360 is beasting.

I love how people are acting like 360 outselling Wii by 100,000 units in one month is a big deal. Wii has been stomping everyone's ass for like 4 years.

For me, its the change in pace. Nintendo, considering they have fuck all but DKC right now is doing well to have actually had an increase. But its more shocking to me that MS managed to take Kinect and use it along with the slim to propel themselves to these heights. Its fucking exciting honestly. I was sure the Move and Kinect would both brick, but maybe MS is going to find a way to swing some success out of this.

Sony on the other hand did their usual "Borrow this idea, then make it better and release it" but that shit just didn't work this time. Move reeks of the Wii, and I guess people just found Kinect more original and interesting. Good on MS.

I wonder if Sonic Colors, Goldeneye, and Galaxy 2 are still selling steadily down there in the bottom somehwere. Also Move is looking like a mistake, should have tried something innovative, or at least something that looked innovative.

Pretty much this.


And the DS is really mindblowing. Its swan song of Pokemon is still on the way before the 3DS too isn't it? Amazing what that handheld is doing. Its just completely off the charts.


And finally, again GT5, that shit is horrible. I'm sure DK is a great game and all, but I never expected to see that and fable and Need for fucking speed (I don't give a shit about the platform count) outdo GT5. That has to fucking sting, especially considering how GT5 just bottomed out in Japan also.

 

[frAntic_Frog]

Gran Turismo 5 is... kinda... not doing what I had thought it would do. GT4 was on the bigger userbase when it sold 600k, but that was during February, and GT5 hit in November. If it doesn't have legs, the series might be in serious danger of being done as a megafranchise.

GT4 was launched proud and loud during a dead month Feb '05 that it had all to itself


GT5 had launch date confusion, launched end of November competing with the likes of CoD

 

[ShockingAlberto]

So do you guys feel DKCR is being hurt in any way by Nintendo's ads?

The gorilla ad isn't very good and the Wii Christmas ad still features NSMB, despite new dialogue for the family.

 

[SoulPlaya]

Sony have to make sure that FF Versus 13 will be exclusive to PS3. I don't really see any other big system seller exclusives for 2011.

I highly doubt that will make a difference in the US.

 

[Skilotonn]

The glory days of NPD are BACK babay!

Just got in today fresh off the plane, relaxing in the tropics back home again in a comfy chair, log on to GAF, see the NPD thread which I always forget when it shows up, saw all these goal posts moving so far compared to how far they were months ago when expectations and bragging levels were so high.

I love you GAF.

Congrats to those who sold well, especially Fable III still selling like hot cakes, and Donkey Kong taking down former giants like no one's business.

Funny reading how 3 days isn't fair to GT5 while one day alone is more than enough for other franchises.

As hard as it may be, especially after what you may have written with insane expectations in threads looooooong before the game actually came out for proper comparisons, try to remember that it's a damn videogame - go on about your business and try playing it or something.

:lol Um, no.

Pfffft. What would YOU know about this?

 

[AniHawk]

Having exclusives and having exclusives that will actually sell hardware are two different things.

True, but both are preferable to a third alternative: having neither. Uncharted 3, Twisted Metal, Killzone 3, Resistance 3, and LittleBigPlanet 2 are all familiar names that should have nice, big marketing campaigns to go along with them. The Wii, in comparison (so far), has Zelda and Mario Sports Mix, and the 360 has the second batch of Kinect games, Forza 4, and Gears 3.

I'm not saying it'll be enough make it sell as good as it did in late 2009 again, but it should keep sales steady at least.

 

[Ashes]

Having exclusives and having exclusives that will actually sell hardware are two different things.

four or five being released, one of them must got sky high surely....
edit: I just had a thought... what if they release gt5 spec II next december?

 

[Pooya]

ACB sales make me , no BS exclusive DLC next time please, looks like it doesn't work anyway, thanks.

 

[FrankT]

Sony have to make sure that FF Versus 13 will be exclusive to PS3. I don't really see any other big system seller exclusives for 2011.

I thnk UC can do that with the price cut. Though I do also think MS will put Gears around it with their own price drop next year.

ACB sales make me , no BS exclusive DLC next time please, looks like it doesn't work anyway, thanks.

Did we ever get the exact breakdown for it?

Wow at the 360. Seriously, outside of the DS, I don't think there's any system that's done this well 5 years into its lifespan. I'd say there's a very good chance it could outsell the Wii in December as well now, and an even likelier chance that it will be the best-selling home console YTD.

.

May pass that 32 million estimate by 2011 year end eh? Well close perhaps.

 

[bigtroyjon]

What numbers did I make up? The development days? The number of employee's? Using 8 hours to represent a working day?

Was there a single number in your post that wasn't made up?

 

[Shurs]

I'm not sure what this is trying to put forth.

I'm putting forth some prices of games in the Top Ten on Black Friday.

 

[Brimstone]

Well Microsoft has extended the effective lifespan of the XB360 platform thanks to kinect. I certainly won't be suprised if they go out and buy Bizarre Creations from Activision.

 

[Pride]

:
Xbox 360: 1.37 Million (+68%)

3 Words: Double Dream Hands!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm7yAWpX1Mc

 

[XiaNaphryz]

What numbers did I make up? The development days? The number of employee's? Using 8 hours to represent a working day?

You can't just pick two dates and assume everything in-between is full-on development, much less assume the entire existing employee count was actively on development during said assumed span. It's not even a decent super-rough estimate. It's effectively the same thing as making up numbers.

And we're not even getting into work day length, whether employees are exempt or non-exempt, etc.

If I did this sort of thing when I was still involved as a game producer, I'd have been laughed out of the building.

 

[pulga]

I really can't believe some of you actually think that the 360 sales are anything but disappointing compared with the PS3's solid sales. Let's do some general calculations:

360 sales: 1,370,000
PS3 sales: 530,000

Amount of 360s sold as Kinect bundles: let's say 40%, so 548,000
PS3 move bundles: let's say 20%, so 106,000

Kinects sold as losses: they lose about $50 per bundle that they could have made by selling it standalone, factor in shipping and extra weight, round that off to -$76 lost per bundle, at a staggering $41 million lost in sales.
PS3 moves sold as losses: the pack in and the standalone bundle for Move is exactly the same, so Sony loses no money. Let's call that a net gain of $15 million.

MS commercial budget to achieve these sales: $500,000,000
Sony commercial budget to achieve these sales: lets say $20,000,000

Total overall holiday cash flow:
MS -$541,000,000
Sony ~+$100,000,000

I commend Sony for taking this holiday season and really making a profit, unlike it's competitors. They are truely in it to win it.

guys guys

is this for real?

holy shit

edit: Thank God I kept on reading. Sarcasm detector is kinda dead this late at night :lol

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

I really didn't think Sony would be that far off the 1 million mark. At least they got Europe and Japan

And bravo to MS, even though I wanted Kinect to bomb (and move).

 

[Dreams-Visions]

guys guys

is this for real?

holy shit

 

[soundscream]

:lol Um, no.

Please we know you were balling with that Louie V fanny pack :lol

 

[clashfan]

:lol Um, no.

What would you know? The guy has done his research.

 

[graywolf323]

well can't say I saw that coming...

 

[adamsapple]

:lol Um, no.

I don't know man...

that dude seems Legit with his research and all.

 

[Stripper13]

What numbers did I make up? The development days? The number of employee's? Using 8 hours to represent a working day?

All of them? If they weren't made up they were very seriously taken out of context.

305 employees takes no consideration into how they are paid, how many hours they do, how long they're involved with the project etc

The dollar per hour rate was pulled out of thin air.

The average hour work day was pulled out of thin air.

The development days were pulled out of thin air (the difference between two releases does not equal development days... the figure would be inappropriate to be used even if talking about general 'dev cycles' as you have no idea how many people remain on the team after/during/starting a project and what the general behind the scenes activities involve).

The fact is, your figures don't even amount to 'rough' estimates - it's just pure bullshit that you should have thought about before posting.

 

[chris0701]

Thanks chubigans!!

Now we cannot sure why Sony released so much exclusive titles at 2008/2009

In fact more PS3 sales before 2009,more loss they gained.:lol :lol :lol

Poor ND,chubigans thought you hurt Sony:lol :lol

 

[Fredescu]

So do you guys feel DKCR is being hurt in any way by Nintendo's ads?

I thought these sales seemed pretty good? I'm not sure what was expected.

 

[Rainier]

I don't know man...

that dude seems Legit with his research and all.

I heard that the napkin he used to write out the calculations was triple ply. Triple Ply!

 

[subversus]

this thread is sort of hilarious.

One big racer whis was out for 3 days on one platform is beaten by another big racer (by about 20k units lol) which was out for almost a fucking month on 4 platforms. BOMBAAAAAAAkldskjnfsdkfsdlfjsldkfl!!!! /cry

PS3 had almost no games this year comparing to the stellar last year and had no price cut. WHY DOES IT SELL SO BADLY awwaaaaaaaaawwwwadasawwwwwwwwawaaaaa1!!!

 

[Lion Heart]

Gran Turismo 5 is... kinda... not doing what I had thought it would do. GT4 was on the bigger userbase when it sold 600k, but that was during February, and GT5 hit in November. If it doesn't have legs, the series might be in serious danger of being done as a megafranchise.

Actually it came out in March and it didn't sell 600k it sold 532k

March 2005
2) Top-selling games by platform (Retail sales $)

PS2 Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 GRAN TURISMO 4 Sony $ 26,165,740 532,219
2 FIGHT NIGHT ROUND 2 Electronic Arts $ 12,891,970 261,974
3 DEVIL MAY CRY 3 Capcom $ 12,467,640 252,006
4 GOD OF WAR Sony $ 10,612,730 214,028
5 MVP BASEBALL 2005 Electronic Arts $ 9,917,162 337,736

 

[XiaNaphryz]

All of them? If they weren't made up they were very seriously taken out of context.

305 employees takes no consideration into how they are paid, how many hours they do, how long they're involved with the project etc

The dollar per hour rate was pulled out of thin air.

The average hour work day was pulled out of thin air.

The development days were pulled out of thin air (the difference between two releases does not equal development days... the figure would be inappropriate to be used even if talking about general 'dev cycles' as you have no idea how many people remain on the team after/during/starting a project and what the general behind the scenes activities involve).

The fact is, your figures don't even amount to 'rough' estimates - it's just pure bullshit that you should have thought about before posting.

I just said all that.

 

[EmCeeGramr]

BOMBAAAAAAAkldskjnfsdkfsdlfjsldkfl!!!! /cry

WHY DOES IT SELL SO BADLY awwaaaaaaaaawwwwadasawwwwwwwwawaaaaa1!!!

Tell us more.

 

[Rainier]

I just said all that.

Ya, but now your sources are confirmed!

 

[Zoe]

The dollar per hour rate was pulled out of thin air.

It reminds me of when in my game dev class, one of the groups estimated developer salaries to be $30K/year. The whole room busted out laughing :lol

$30/hour is closer to reality, but it's still not quite there. Don't forget that there's an additional 25~30% of the salary in taxes and overhead costs.

 

[PSGames]

True, but both are preferable to a third alternative: having neither. Uncharted 3, Twisted Metal, Killzone 3, Resistance 3, and LittleBigPlanet 2 are all familiar names that should have nice, big marketing campaigns to go along with them. The Wii, in comparison (so far), has Zelda and Mario Sports Mix, and the 360 has the second batch of Kinect games, Forza 4, and Gears 3.

I'm not saying it'll be enough make it sell as good as it did in late 2009 again, but it should keep sales steady at least.

The thing is those Nintendo and Microsoft franchises while fewer, are far better known in the mainstream. Sony exclusives just don't hold the same clout that they used to evidenced by GT5s sales. Price cut is a start but they need price parity with the 4GB 360. The days of Sony charging a premium for Bluray (even as little as $50) are long gone if they want to remain competitive.

 

[elrechazado]

So GT5:

*Had its release date announced a week before the game arrived on shelves, which led to it being MIA from Sunday circulars.

*A commercial that started airing three days before its release.

*Went on sale the day after new releases normally go on sale.

*No Black Friday deals save for one at Kmart where you had to be a member of their rewards program.

It's not hard to see how things went wrong this month.

I expect the game will be in the top ten for December.

If it weren't in the top ten it would one of the biggest flops in history. Lowered expectations now are amazing....we have to bet that in december it would be in the top ten?

 

[RBH]

Tell us more.

:lol

 

[jrricky]

This is amazing! :lol :lol

 

[apana]

I thought these sales seemed pretty good? I'm not sure what was expected.

Really no one has any clue. Original sold 8 mil but things changed for Donkey Kong since then. NSMB audience may send sales through the roof for the longterm but then again they may be like "meh". It's off to a strong start according to NPD. It's important that Nintendo puts extra effort into supporting the game after holidays.

 

[Truespeed]

All of them? If they weren't made up they were very seriously taken out of context.

305 employees takes no consideration into how they are paid, how many hours they do, how long they're involved with the project etc

The dollar per hour rate was pulled out of thin air.

The average hour work day was pulled out of thin air.

The development days were pulled out of thin air (the difference between two releases does not equal development days... the figure would be inappropriate to be used even if talking about general 'dev cycles' as you have no idea how many people remain on the team after/during/starting a project and what the general behind the scenes activities involve).

The fact is, your figures don't even amount to 'rough' estimates - it's just pure bullshit that you should have thought about before posting.

How inconsiderate of you to not take into account the 110 employees at PD. Show some compassion, dude.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

It reminds me of when in my game dev class, one of the groups estimated developer salaries to be $30K/year. The whole room busted out laughing :lol

$30/hour is closer to reality, but it's still not quite there. Don't forget that there's an additional 25~30% of the salary in taxes and overhead costs.

To generalize everyone to one number is foolhardy at best. You have to go by their job title and locality and then attempt any sort of generalization - a senior engineer in the US would have a vastly different salary than a junior modeler in Japan. Then you can get a better rough estimate.

How inconsiderate of you to not take into account the 110 employees at PD. Show some compassion, dude.

You're just tag-fishing now aren't you?

 

[mujun]

So GT5:

*Had its release date announced a week before the game arrived on shelves, which led to it being MIA from Sunday circulars.

*A commercial that started airing three days before its release.

*Went on sale the day after new releases normally go on sale.

*No Black Friday deals save for one at Kmart where you had to be a member of their rewards program.

It's not hard to see how things went wrong this month.

I expect the game will be in the top ten for December.

You make pretty lopsided arguments when passionate, huh.

 

[Shurs]

If it weren't in the top ten it would one of the biggest flops in history. Lowered expectations now are amazing....we have to bet that in december it would be in the top ten?

I'm not betting anything, just trying to look at some possibilities as to why the game underperformed in November.

Sony certainly botched the launch of the game and I think that is reflected in the three days of sales the game had in the November NPD.

You make pretty lopsided arguments when passionate, huh.

What argument?