Captain Tuttle
Member
Of course it counts. The racing genre isn't what it used to be in the US though. COD is a monster.dolemite said:
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NPD Sales Results For November 2010 [Update 6: PSP, PS2, Move Games]
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
BoilersFan23
Member
When I saw LBP2 being delayed and GT5 possibly not coming out this year (even if it did on short notice), I figured it would be a lot harder to sell PS3 this year compared to last year around Christmas time. Last year had Uncharted 2. The year before had R2 and LBP.Captain Tuttle said:
Personally I see everything a bit differently than many. The big mistake Sony made was underestimating the depend of the slim 120GB PS3 when they made it. They had plans to ship x amount of consoles by the end of March 2010. Unfortunately they came up short. I'm familiar with this because after January 2010 especially, finding a PS3 console became really hard when games like Heavy Rain, God of War III, FFXIII, etc. were coming out. Pretty much all my local retailers (unless its one very few go to like Sony Style) was completely sold out of PS3 consoles. GameStop was even taking preorders on future shipments. All GS locations had were used PS3 consoles, and some of them even dried up on them. Constantly I'd hear people come into retailers saying they were looking for a PS3, but they were hard to get. Just when SCEA finally started to solve the demand problem getting more consoles out (around late May to June 2010), there were not many games coming out and people didn't care so much. March especially had major games to sell people a PS3 console, but they could not meet demand. I do believe that if Sony was able to meet demand and grow its userbase, the PS3 and 360 would have been a bit closer right now.
Another mistake I feel they made was putting a 160GB HDD in the $300 model. They should have just went 250GB, then many would not have seen a difference between a 250GB 360 and 250GB PS3. I think it helped last year that people saw both PS3 and 360 had the same HDD size at the same price.
But at the same time, with the releases Sony has in 2010, they can definitely get back into it. Many thought PS3 would be completely done, but new design + $100 pricecut did wonders.
Despite the sales, I would believe Sony is happy this time around because they are profiting on hardware finally.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Questions from the last page that I'm not going to dig up the quotes for:
1) Is 4.9 million units in a month the record? Yes. In fact, MW2's 4.2 million units in a month was the record.
Single SKUs that have sold more than 4.9 million units, lifetime
- Wii Play Wii 12.5+
- Mario Kart Wii 8.6+
- GTA SA PS2 8.5
- Wii Fit Wii 8.1+
- NSMB DS 7.0+
- GTA VC PS2 6.9
- CoD MW2 360 6.4+
- Halo 3 360 6.4+
- Mario Kart DS 6.1+
- Super Mario 64 N64 5.94
- GTA3 PS2 5.7
- CoD MW 360 5.2+
- Goldeneye 007 N64 5.01
(NSMB Wii is also on this list but I have no idea where because of a dearth of 2010 data)
- No games on PSP
- No games on PS1
- No games on GBA
- No games on Gamecube
- No games on Xbox OG
- No games on PS3.
Exercise for the reader to prove that all of these titles didn't break 4.9 million on their first month, but I promise you they didn't (San Andreas did 2.0 in case you think that's a good contradiction point)
2) Can a game go from 300k to 1mln+? Yes.
I'll skip both handhelds, which tend to be leggier anyway, and just do consoles and just do this generation:
Wii Play did 370k in February 2007 and is at 12.5+ million today.
Mario Party 8 did 314k in May 2007 and is at 3.0+ million today
Zelda: TP did 412k in November 2006 and is at 2.5+ million today
Mario and Sonic did 328k in November 2007 and is at 2.1+ million today
Carnival Games didn't make the top 20 in August 2007, where #10 was 127k... so I'd guess it did fewer than 60k sales, and is at 1.7+ million today
Rayman Raving Rabbids didn't make the top 20 in November 2006, where #10 was 206k... so I'd guess it did fewer than 100k sales, and is at 1.6+ million today
(I assume at this point you'll take my word for it and I'm not going to fill in the numbers for the rest of the titles):
Game Party
EA Sports Active
Super Paper Mario
Wii Music
Assassin's Creed 1 PS3
Resistance: Fall of Man PS3
Little Big Planet PS3
Left 4 Dead 360 (410k->~1.6+)
Guitar Hero II 360
Call of Duty 2 360
Saints Row 360 (this was weird, it released like a day after NPD stopped coverage so first month sales were like 2k, but then the month after that it did like 400k, if you don't want to count it, exclude it)
Dead Rising 360
Rainbow Six Vegas 360
Right, so obviously we can safely say that 300k->>1 million is possible for launch and non-launch titles, casual and non-casual titles, on all three platforms. Let's put that to bed. This doesn't guarantee that Kinect Sports and Dance Central hit a million, but it means that they have a pretty healthy chance to.
If someone wants a deeper profile of November Launch -> December numbers, I could probably do that at some later timer.
Sources are all public data + publicly posted leaks from the post-NPD ban era, and they're all non-kosher leaks from before that ban was put into effect. Anything pre-ban era is heavily rounded and also so old at this point I don't see how it constitutes an issue. I am not an NPD subscriber and I don't know any or of any current leaks. Subscribers should not post leaked NPD numbers on this forum.
1) Is 4.9 million units in a month the record? Yes. In fact, MW2's 4.2 million units in a month was the record.
Single SKUs that have sold more than 4.9 million units, lifetime
- Wii Play Wii 12.5+
- Mario Kart Wii 8.6+
- GTA SA PS2 8.5
- Wii Fit Wii 8.1+
- NSMB DS 7.0+
- GTA VC PS2 6.9
- CoD MW2 360 6.4+
- Halo 3 360 6.4+
- Mario Kart DS 6.1+
- Super Mario 64 N64 5.94
- GTA3 PS2 5.7
- CoD MW 360 5.2+
- Goldeneye 007 N64 5.01
(NSMB Wii is also on this list but I have no idea where because of a dearth of 2010 data)
- No games on PSP
- No games on PS1
- No games on GBA
- No games on Gamecube
- No games on Xbox OG
- No games on PS3.
Exercise for the reader to prove that all of these titles didn't break 4.9 million on their first month, but I promise you they didn't (San Andreas did 2.0 in case you think that's a good contradiction point)
2) Can a game go from 300k to 1mln+? Yes.
I'll skip both handhelds, which tend to be leggier anyway, and just do consoles and just do this generation:
Wii Play did 370k in February 2007 and is at 12.5+ million today.
Mario Party 8 did 314k in May 2007 and is at 3.0+ million today
Zelda: TP did 412k in November 2006 and is at 2.5+ million today
Mario and Sonic did 328k in November 2007 and is at 2.1+ million today
Carnival Games didn't make the top 20 in August 2007, where #10 was 127k... so I'd guess it did fewer than 60k sales, and is at 1.7+ million today
Rayman Raving Rabbids didn't make the top 20 in November 2006, where #10 was 206k... so I'd guess it did fewer than 100k sales, and is at 1.6+ million today
(I assume at this point you'll take my word for it and I'm not going to fill in the numbers for the rest of the titles):
Game Party
EA Sports Active
Super Paper Mario
Wii Music
Assassin's Creed 1 PS3
Resistance: Fall of Man PS3
Little Big Planet PS3
Left 4 Dead 360 (410k->~1.6+)
Guitar Hero II 360
Call of Duty 2 360
Saints Row 360 (this was weird, it released like a day after NPD stopped coverage so first month sales were like 2k, but then the month after that it did like 400k, if you don't want to count it, exclude it)
Dead Rising 360
Rainbow Six Vegas 360
Right, so obviously we can safely say that 300k->>1 million is possible for launch and non-launch titles, casual and non-casual titles, on all three platforms. Let's put that to bed. This doesn't guarantee that Kinect Sports and Dance Central hit a million, but it means that they have a pretty healthy chance to.
If someone wants a deeper profile of November Launch -> December numbers, I could probably do that at some later timer.
Sources are all public data + publicly posted leaks from the post-NPD ban era, and they're all non-kosher leaks from before that ban was put into effect. Anything pre-ban era is heavily rounded and also so old at this point I don't see how it constitutes an issue. I am not an NPD subscriber and I don't know any or of any current leaks. Subscribers should not post leaked NPD numbers on this forum.
longdi
Banned
I made a thread about PS3 poor sales and it got lock so i guess have to ask here, why has PS3 suddenly become unpopular with Americans? I see 500k units sold for a Nov month as quite poor and PS3 has been dropping YOY every month.
I think Sony needs something to kickstart PS3 in US. GT5 and Move failing is not the something i like to see. First party games not setting the pace for PS3 is worrying coming from how badly ported COD BOPS was. Will a price drop help? If this goes any longer, people will forget about PS3 and move to 360, it is also bad news for PS4.
I think Sony needs something to kickstart PS3 in US. GT5 and Move failing is not the something i like to see. First party games not setting the pace for PS3 is worrying coming from how badly ported COD BOPS was. Will a price drop help? If this goes any longer, people will forget about PS3 and move to 360, it is also bad news for PS4.
I believe Resort and Brawl are up there ( not sure if the "single sku" thingie has some influence like for Pokemon D/P )Stumpokapow said:
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/101029/img/55l.jpg
Fake edit:
NSMBW looks to be headed to 7 millions and beyond and NSMB 8+ .
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Celine said:
Resort is (5.1+, not sure how I missed it honestly), Brawl was just shy of 4.9 when I last had numbers for it. Just double checked other platforms and I'm not missing anything else. Both Ruby/Sapphire and Diamond/Pearl would count if you combined them, especially if you added Emerald/Platinum.
Either way I'm not worried, none of those games sold more than 4.9 million in their first month
Sho_Nuff82
Member
The 360 version was still popping up in the top 10 in June/July, it certainly had better legs.MightyHedgehog said:
Thank you for those numbers stump. I'd posted the Left 4 Dead breakdown earlier as an example of the kind of legs GT5 would need to sell 2 million copies. Because of the holiday, the top titles usually do very well in December, so I would say NFS (combined), Donkey Kong, GT5, Dance Central, and Kinect Sports are a lock for 1 million in the US at least by the end of January.
Udraw will probably end up somewhere up there or beyond once they settle their supply issues.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Sho_Nuff82 said:
Yeah it's very difficult to say how a premium pricepoint, large store footprint, supply constrained product will do. It simply doesn't follow the normal retail rules and so many factors are up in the air that I wouldn't feel confident saying it'll hit or miss any target.
test_account
XP-39C²
I havnt followed this thread that much, but has there been any indication of how Epic Mickey has sold? If we had some numbers, i guess that it would have been updated in the OP, but have there been any other info regarding how Epic Mickey has sold in the US?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
test_account said:
NPD stopped tracking for November on the 27th. Epic Mickey came out the 30th. So it would be tracked for December, rather than November.
soundscream said:
BLOPS- 1.8million
MW2- 2.3million
WAW- 800thousand
MW- 1.2million
Wonder why the gap was so big for MW2?
You can't just look at absolute units. Modern Warfare 2 sold a lot more copies in its first month than WaW or COD4, so of course the gap is going to be bigger. Even though the absolute unit gap between MW2 360 and MW2 PS3 was almost 3 times as large as WaW 360 and WaW PS3, the percentage breakdown between versions of each game was basically the same. MW2 just sold 3 times a much in it's first month, hence 3 times the gap.
Here's another way to look at it. The gap between version of MW2 was 2.3M and the sales ratio was about 70/30. Just over 2 copies on 360 for every 1 on PS3. A smaller game selling 200k on 360 and 20k on PS3 would have a gape of 180k units, over 10 times as small as MW2, despite it being way more lopsided with 10 360 copies selling for every 1 ps3 copy. Larger total sales are going to lead to larger absolute unit gaps.
That said, it is pretty clear that the COD gap has been shrinking each year as the difference between the 360 installed userbase and PS3 installed userbase becomes less significant.
Stumpokapow said:Either way I'm not worried, none of those games sold more than 4.9 million in their first month
It was jvm's question, and it was responded to. One thing to keep in mind is that the MW2 and BlOps #s are combined SKUs, so you have to take that into account (i.e. the combined November numbers would be an apples to oranges comparison). Attempting to extract the individual SKU data, the rankings would probably look like this for Top 5 first month sales.
1. 360 BlOps (Nov-2010)
2. 360 MW2 (Nov-2009)
3-5. (All just under 3m first month, so probably ~1m gap between 2 and 3.)
360 Halo: Reach (Sep-2010) (again, have to attempt to extract single SKU for comparison)
WII NSMB Wii (Dec-2009)
WII SSBBrawl (Mar-2008)
I think everything else is under 2.5m in a month.
V_Arnold said:
This was August. The one SKU alone is likely over 7 million at this point. I have data for all except March-June which it was in the top 20 each month and Oct/Nov and it is at 6.7M. Depending on legs there is a chance for Black Ops to reach 8.
Hmm just noticed this it looks like COD MW2 has overtaken this.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
szaromir said:
Yeah, I'm of the "separate consoles, but combine premium SKUs" mindset.
Diatribe1974
Member
Wow. GT5 only did 400k? When did it get released again? middle of the month? But also, doesn't the GT series have some decent legs on it, selling solidly for a longer period of time versus what most titles do? (i.e. sell great the 1st month, then disappear after that)
With hardcore gamers, Sony has been been sledding up hill against the double whammy network externality of XboxLive+CoD and to a lesser extent to Halo the last few years. 360 is the goto destination now for CoD more than PS2 was for GTA last generation. If you're upgrading and wanna level up in multiplayer with your buds, usually you're following them to 360/Live. With more casual/first-time gamers MS has come roaring out of the gates with Kinect getting buyers who would only have considered Wii in the past. The price isn't helping Sony with these casual/first-time buyers either.longdi said:
soundscream said:
BLOPS- 1.8million
MW2- 2.3million
WAW- 800thousand
MW- 1.2million
Wonder why the gap was so big for MW2?
I think it speaks to the strength of Sony's lineup in 2009 compared to this year.
When BLOPS released this year, no one knew for sure when Gran Turismo 5 was going to be released.
I realize the games are dissimilar, but both offer a lot of gameplay for $60. BLOPS for its multiplayer and GT5 in its single player. And there are, in my opinion, a lot of people who only buy one game during the holiday season.
JB1981 said:
Because one of the HD twins was bound to separate itself from the other, and Microsoft came up with a winner in Kinect. It's given Xbox 360 a new aura and finally put the console on the radar screens of Nintendo's "casual" market.
So Wii is the original motion machine and Kinect is the fresh new motion thing. They each do things different enough to appeal to enough different people. Unfortunately for Sony, this has kind of pushed PS3 out into the cold.
Move is made redundant by Wii. HD graphics are made redundant by Xbox 360. PS3 may be able to do everything, but everything it does, as far as the average consumer is concerned, its competitors do just as well or better. (Blu-ray playback aside, but given that BR players are now common at ~$100...)
Oh, and Sony's dumb pricing hasn't helped, either.
I think the PS3 needs a price cut in the US, but the weakness of the American dollar means Sony is probably already getting less for every PS3 sold here than in any other country.
For example, in New Zealand a 160 GB PS3 sells for NZ $600, which is US $450 at current exchange rates. Now there's a 15% national sales tax in NZ, but even if you reduce the NZ price by that full amount you still get US $390 - way more than you pay for a PS3 in the United States.
For example, in New Zealand a 160 GB PS3 sells for NZ $600, which is US $450 at current exchange rates. Now there's a 15% national sales tax in NZ, but even if you reduce the NZ price by that full amount you still get US $390 - way more than you pay for a PS3 in the United States.
Patrick Klepek
furiously molesting tim burton
WaltJay said:
I was wondering if any of you jerks would remember that. :lol
Patrick Klepek
furiously molesting tim burton
Something along the lines of Gran Turismo not having the star power it used to on a GNetLee podcast. Folks ripped me to shreds!
MightyHedgehog
Member
You weren't the only one who said such things well before its release, but yeah....it doesn't shine as brightly when there are so many others in its orbit shining around it.
outunderthestars
Banned
Kolgar said:
I agree with everything this person said.
Great numbers, Stumpokapow! Taking them all and assuming 100 games have sold 1M+ this generation, there's about 20% chance DC and Sports make it. I'd move that down because few of the listed titles had a full holiday launch. I'd also move it down because Kinect wasn't as constrained and so the relatively low attach tells me the games aren't as compelling to the audience.
Hit games, taken as a portfolio, generally see a 1.5X uplift vs. 2X Dec:Nov. Again, it is very tough to double a 300K number. Has it happened? Sure. More than 10% of the time, no way. Probably not even 5%.
Putting my money where my mouth is, I will take nearly any bet they won't hit 1M units in the U.S. by the end of the year. For lifetime, how about this, I lose if they both make it; I win if neither make it; no action if only one makes it. Any takers?
Hit games, taken as a portfolio, generally see a 1.5X uplift vs. 2X Dec:Nov. Again, it is very tough to double a 300K number. Has it happened? Sure. More than 10% of the time, no way. Probably not even 5%.
Putting my money where my mouth is, I will take nearly any bet they won't hit 1M units in the U.S. by the end of the year. For lifetime, how about this, I lose if they both make it; I win if neither make it; no action if only one makes it. Any takers?
MightyHedgehog
Member
That's a foolish bet. Not sure anyone was expecting a million-selling Kinect title this year. Not for a $150 peripheral item with a pack-in (possibly on top of the cost of buying a new console to use it).
Dreams-Visions
Member
no, damn it. no.Curufinwe said:
every year they make a price cut. and you know what happens? their competitors simply go lower because they can (why would they allow Sony to undercut them???). and Sony continues to lose. by now we should all be well aware of that.
whatever the solution, cutting the price isn't the answer. not anymore. maybe in 2007 we could have had such a conversation, but that ship has sailed. they'll have to make it up in the product somehow.
unfortunately for them, it looks like that ship has also sailed. Xbox 360 found its mid-life revival and its secondary to a helluva lot of time, research and investment. I'm not sure Move will provide the same kind of revival for Sony. If not...well...I'm not sure where they go from here.
I don't think many people here expected Kinect itself to sell much more than a million or 2 in its first few months. much less some cheesy Kinect games. I certainly didn't.MightyHedgehog said:
Well, technically Kinect Adventures is a multi-million seller.
But yeah, noone was expecting the Kinect games to be million sellers in the US,even less so soon. Heck, for the Wii launch only Zelda was a million seller on a similar time frame and well, that's Zelda.
Maybe in the long run, at least Kinect Sports and probably Dance Central and that would be reaching anyway.
But yeah, noone was expecting the Kinect games to be million sellers in the US,even less so soon. Heck, for the Wii launch only Zelda was a million seller on a similar time frame and well, that's Zelda.
Maybe in the long run, at least Kinect Sports and probably Dance Central and that would be reaching anyway.
Warren Ellis
Banned
probably black ops sold a shitload on steam too..
bigtroyjon
Member
NPD always combined all the sku's in the reports, not sure why you need to single out each sku for BlOps.donny2112 said:
Each report had this note on it- (*includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)
Dreams-Visions
Member
comparing to the Wii launch is an totally unreasonable comparison.fernoca said:Well, technically Kinect Adventures is a multi-million seller.
But yeah, noone was expecting the Kinect games to be million sellers in the US,even less so soon. Heck, for the Wii launch only Zelda was a million seller on a similar time frame and well, that's Zelda.
Maybe in the long run, at least Kinect Sports and probably Dance Central and that would be reaching anyway.
the 360 gets to start that comparison with 21 million installed users...
FateBreaker
Member
fernoca said:
KS and DC will definitely take 1 million. In fact, I think it'll be over 2 million. And I also think that Kinectimals and Your Shape will sell quite well. They seem to be popular titles.
There are 21 million 360s, but no 21 million Kinects.Dreams-Visions said:
Sports and Dance Central only sell to those that have a Kinect and want something other than Adventures. The comparison was around the same line, as to how back then many said they bought a Wii for Sports (which was bundled with the unit) and/or Zelda and then got nothing else.
Which is why expecting a million copies of Sports or DC in around two months in one region is probably reaching or betting that it won't since even if there were 2.5 million Kinects by the end of the year in the US that would be around a 50% attach ratio. And not even Wii Sports Resort sold to 50% of the userbase in 2 months/NPDs in the US.