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[charlequin]

There is nothing at all to prove that Wii Sports sold the machine.

What. Are you serious here?

In Japan -- where it was sold separately -- not only did Wii Sports maintain a ludicrously high attach rate, but its weekly sales stayed in almost exact proportion to system sales for years. It was by far the primary "face" of the system and presented in all contexts as the "killer app" -- even when puff pieces about Wiis getting bought for nursing homes and whatnot were running in 2007, it was always for purposes of Wii Sports.

I mean, there's a certain context in which one can argue that, yes, you can't prove exactly how much of the Wii's appeal was cemented to Wii Sports in the US, but it's absolutely absurd to go from that standpoint to a claim that it didn't: to do so is to deny the facts of the situation in such a fashion as to render one's argument completely disconnected from reality.

 

[szaromir]

You're incredibly foolish to think that a 4GB PS3 would give Sony the cost reductions they need to sell the system at that price. HDD prices are trivial.

HDD, no matter the size, is a fixed ~$40 cost, whereas flash memory could cost Sony a couple of bucks. Savings could be significant.

 

[Vinci]

Inasmuch as there's a difference relevant to the specific topic at hand here, though, it's that products breaking into a well-established market are more likely to sustain an initial bout of success than products seeking to establish an unknown and poorly-understood market, which makes the argument that Kinect will dry up when everyone "realizes" the ways in which it's lacking even less likely.

Do you feel that software played a role in the Wii's success? I'm genuinely asking. Most people, including myself, have always operated under the assumption that software sells hardware. If the Wii's success was based upon its software, than do you feel Kinect's is equal to it? Based on what I've seen - and mind you, I don't pretend to know everything about its upcoming software lineup - it isn't. But if that's not important, than the whole concept that software is the driving force behind hardware purchases need to be re-examined.

 

[kame-sennin]

Inasmuch as there's a difference relevant to the specific topic at hand here, though, it's that products breaking into a well-established market are more likely to sustain an initial bout of success than products seeking to establish an unknown and poorly-understood market, which makes the argument that Kinect will dry up when everyone "realizes" the ways in which it's lacking even less likely.

That's true, especially if we're making a prediction before the product launches. The key issue for me with regards to Kinect is that the future of the product depends greatly on what happens in the next year. Microsoft has several key choices to make as they compete directly against Nintendo, and those choices are going to determine whether Kinect is a successful experiment or an entrenched player in the expanded market.

Given any remotely reasonable definitions, it's pretty much completely accurate that "good marketing" can't actually sell garbage.

Can you sell people something that doesn't live up to your promises? Yes (although not for very long.) Can you sell people something that frontloads its value so it's incredibly exciting right after a purchase but loses its luster over time? Yes. Can you sell something that triggers some innate appeal to people but ultimately, from a sober and reflective standpoint, is not actually useful? Certainly. But ultimately, all marketing strategies revolve around showing people something that they want. Inasmuch as the marketing is at least relatively accurate about what's being sold, it's not going to successfully sell anything to anyone that they would never ever want otherwise.

At its worst, advertising certainly is used to mislead people, to sell a bill of goods that does not provide the suggested return. In more important areas, this can actually be quite problematic. But we're talking about elective entertainment products here. Never has pure marketing expenditure been able to force through success for entertainment products that were not ultimately appealing to the targeted audience -- if it could, we would never have box-office bombs and underwhelming book sales.

Well said. People far too often overestimate the power of advertising without understanding the role it actually plays in product sales.

Yeah, I don't think Kinect titles are comparable to Wii Sports. And I was merely disagreeing that Wii Play contributed to Wii's popularity.

I see.

 

[Zoe]

I had a 3-4 year old webcam at the time eyetoy came out that could do the same stuff as eyetoy. I could play pop the bubbles, basketball, and some other games but I can't remember. Point is that eyetoy's technology wasn't all that impressive compared to earlier devices that could perform the same tasks only eyetoy had more games for it than a normal webcam

It was before its time in that it came out before it could benefit from software running on better hardware and before the casual market (from the Wii) was there.

 

[Alx]

It was by far the primary "face" of the system and presented in all contexts as the "killer app" -- even when puff pieces about Wiis getting bought for nursing homes and whatnot were running in 2007, it was always for purposes of Wii Sports.

True. And even more than that, I think the tennis game in Wii sports was the real killer-app and showcase of the tech. When the Wii was unveiled on a TV show or referenced in popular media, it was always Wii tennis that was playing on screen. The Wii was "the console where you hit the balls for real". I don't even remember the other sports in the pack, except for bowling.

 

[Rainier]

... they were paying $250 for the Wii itself and WiiSports came with it.

I usually agree with you, but not on this. People (the new gamers that accounted for the Wii's success) saw WiiSports and bought it, the Wii just happened to be in the same box.

 

[Zoe]

HDD, no matter the size, is a fixed ~$40 cost, whereas flash memory could cost Sony a couple of bucks. Savings could be significant.

The PS3 harddrive can't have anything less than 2GB + whatever the max allowed required install is. The 2GB cache size was guaranteed by the release of the 20GB PS3.

 

[2real4tv]

The system is overpriced and poorly positioned in the market in terms of having any distinguishing factors from its nearest competition. Inasmuch as price, software library, and package value are part of marketing (which they absolutely are) then yes, it's true that the PS3 is poorly marketed, but inasmuch as you mean "the ads are bad and/or insufficient in quantity" then no: the problem with the PS3 right now is that it is not an attractive value proposition, and the way to fix that is not to raise awareness of the product in its current state but rather to change the value proposition until it becomes attractive.

As a gaming device yes...but as a multimedia device the blu-ray player and being 3-D enabled(for movies) distinguishes itself quite nicely. SONY took a gamble with blu-ray with the ps3 leading the charge....how successful it was in that area I dunno. I agree on the price point but their are still 360 packages at the same price as the ps3 not to mention having to purchase a Live subscription.

 

[Vinci]

I usually agree with you, but not on this. People (the new gamers that accounted for the Wii's success) saw WiiSports and bought it, the Wii just happened to be in the same box.

Yup.

As a gaming device yes...but as a multimedia device the blu-ray player and being 3-D enabled(for movies) distinguishes itself quite nicely. SONY took a gamble with blu-ray with the ps3 leading the charge....how successful it was in that area I dunno. I agree on the price point but their are still 360 packages at the same price as the ps3 not to mention having to purchase a Live subscription.

And yet people seem to be far more willing to buy a 360 right now, at least in NA. What does that tell you?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

What. Are you serious here?

In Japan -- where it was sold separately -- not only did Wii Sports maintain a ludicrously high attach rate, but its weekly sales stayed in almost exact proportion to system sales for years. It was by far the primary "face" of the system and presented in all contexts as the "killer app" -- even when puff pieces about Wiis getting bought for nursing homes and whatnot were running in 2007, it was always for purposes of Wii Sports.

I mean, there's a certain context in which one can argue that, yes, you can't prove exactly how much of the Wii's appeal was cemented to Wii Sports in the US, but it's absolutely absurd to go from that standpoint to a claim that it didn't: to do so is to deny the facts of the situation in such a fashion as to render one's argument completely disconnected from reality.

I'm not talking about sales in Japan. I'm talking about people using sales of Wii Sports in a 1:1 fashion acting like the game obtain that many sales on it's own like it was a stand alone product. All I'm saying is that NPD doesn't count WiiSports sales so we can't pretend to know the true numbers of the game and hence it shouldn't be used.

 

[szaromir]

The PS3 harddrive can't have anything less than 2GB + whatever the max allowed required install is. The 2GB cache size was guaranteed by the release of the 20GB PS3.

How much would 16 or 32GB flash memory with HDD-like parameters (ie. much slower than actual SSD) cost? I don'tknow, I suspect it could still be below $10.

 

[Vinci]

I'm not talking about sales in Japan. I'm talking about people using sales of Wii Sports in a 1:1 fashion acting like the game obtain that many sales on it's own like it was a stand alone product. All I'm saying is that NPD doesn't count WiiSports sales so we can't pretend to know the true numbers of the game and hence it shouldn't be used.

If not Wii Sports, what were people buying the thing for? I mean, obviously, several million bought it for Zelda, but... all the others?

 

[Megadragon15]

As a gaming device yes...but as a multimedia device the blu-ray player and being 3-D enabled(for movies) distinguishes itself quite nicely. SONY took a gamble with blu-ray with the ps3 leading the charge....how successful it was in that area I dunno. I agree on the price point but their are still 360 packages at the same price as the ps3 not to mention having to purchase a Live subscription.

Wouldn't this lead to this conclusion since you pointed out that there are 360 bundles at the same price point:

Demand constrained

 

[charlequin]

The key issue for me with regards to Kinect is that the future of the product depends greatly on what happens in the next year. Microsoft has several key choices to make as they compete directly against Nintendo, and those choices are going to determine whether Kinect is a successful experiment or an entrenched player in the expanded market.

Yes, that I'd certainly agree with. I am much more open to the argument "Kinect is doing well now but Microsoft will fuck it up" (with bad or a lack of additional software, schizophrenic branding or market positioning, stock problems, etc.) than "Kinect is doing well now but people will discover they secretly don't like it," basically.

Do you feel that software played a role in the Wii's success?

Certainly.

If the Wii's success was based upon its software, than do you feel Kinect's is equal to it?

No, but (as I've said) I don't view Kinect's current success as equivalent in scope to the Wii's. I do think its software is quite arguably good and good enough to, at some particular level, drive the success of the peripheral both now and for some indeterminate period of time into the future, at which point the question of whether additional software can keep driving it comes up. But I don't think it's selling on hype right now, I think it's selling because people who demo Kinect Sports and Dance Central enjoy them and want to take them home.

True. And even more than that, I think the tennis game in Wii sports was the real killer-app and showcase of the tech.

Definitely.

 

[butter_stick]

If not Wii Sports, what were people buying the thing for? I mean, obviously, several million bought it for Zelda, but... all the others?

Elebits.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Elebits.

oh god

A well polished sequel to that would have been worth the money. The original was very...nothing.

 

[charlequin]

I agree on the price point but their are still 360 packages at the same price as the ps3 not to mention having to purchase a Live subscription.

The current 360 $299 bundle is a more saleable proposition than the $299 PS3, and is going to look outrageously superior to most eyes in comparison to the $399 Move bundle. That's pretty much the entire crux of the issue: PS3's past periods of success were based on being both at a price people were willing to pay (i.e. $299 or below) while also being a value leader at that price (i.e. having a better package than the equivalently-priced 360.) The second part is simply not true right now and that's creating significant challenges to selling the PS3 in the US.

All I'm saying is that NPD doesn't count WiiSports sales so we can't pretend to know the true numbers of the game and hence it shouldn't be used.

You can't take it as exactly equivalent to a 1:1 sale where each Wii sold was equivalent to a Wii Sports standalone sale, but you can certainly legitimately consider it as having been the equivalent of, say, a 5+ million seller in terms of impact on the system's success without, I would say, even having to present any evidence.

 

[Vinci]

Yes, that I'd certainly agree with. I am much more open to the argument "Kinect is doing well now but Microsoft will fuck it up" (with bad or a lack of additional software, schizophrenic branding or market positioning, stock problems, etc.) than "Kinect is doing well now but people will discover they secretly don't like it," basically.

Just to clarify, I've never meant that. Basically, boiled down to its base element, my perspective would be that MS would 'fuck it up,' to borrow your designation.

 

[Jomjom]

You're incredibly foolish to think that a 4GB PS3 would give Sony the cost reductions they need to sell the system at that price. HDD prices are trivial.

You don't think going from a 120GB HDD to some kind of 4GB flash memory built in would at least let them drop the price by $50?

 

[Vinci]

You don't think going from a 120GB HDD to some kind of 4GB flash memory built in would at least let them drop the price by $50?

The question is, would it help?

 

[Zoe]

You don't think going from a 120GB HDD to some kind of 4GB flash memory built in would at least let them drop the price by $50?

1) a 4GB PS3 simply would not work

2) Even if they were to use something larger than 4GB, such a change would require a new model and changes in the manufacturing process. Would that really make a $50 price drop worth it?

 

[Jomjom]

The question is, would it help?

I don't think it would make their sales equal but it would definitely help. To really help Sony really NEEDS to have a 199.99 PS3. Every non-gamer I know always asks me why I have a PS3 when the 360 is $100 cheaper and has essentially the same games.

They have no idea Xbox Live costs anything. They have no idea it only comes with a 4GB HDD which is useless if you actually start playing XBLA games, and that somewhere down the road you will have to pay for a HDD upgrade. They don't even know that the PS3 can play Blu-rays and the 360 can't. ALL they care about is that the price in every ad says $199.99 for the 360 and $299.99 for the PS3.

Now what system do you think they will pick up when either giving a gift or thinking about getting into gaming?

 

[ShockingAlberto]

The PS3 installs too much stuff non-optionally for 4GB to be workable.

You'd have to constantly be installing and uninstalling games. It'd be like...solely playing XBLA games when all you have is a Memory Unit.

 

[kame-sennin]

Yes, that I'd certainly agree with. I am much more open to the argument "Kinect is doing well now but Microsoft will fuck it up" (with bad or a lack of additional software, schizophrenic branding or market positioning, stock problems, etc.) than "Kinect is doing well now but people will discover they secretly don't like it," basically.

I think we're agreed. We're definitely past the point of "Kinect is really shitty, wait till everybody finds out!". It's also worth noting that Microsoft as a company has a lot of experience defending against new-market products, so there's a decent chance that they will not fuck up.

No, but (as I've said) I don't view Kinect's current success as equivalent in scope to the Wii's. I do think its software is quite arguably good and good enough to, at some particular level, drive the success of the peripheral both now and for some indeterminate period of time into the future, at which point the question of whether additional software can keep driving it comes up. But I don't think it's selling on hype right now, I think it's selling because people who demo Kinect Sports and Dance Central enjoy them and want to take them home.

Yea, there's definitely a chance that Kinect will be the Sega Genisis to the Wii's NES (not SNES), although I think that is a high goal to set and not one MS is likely to meet. But right now, Kinect looks like it has been positioned as a tempting alternate choice for the expanded audience. It's a Coke vs. Pepsi kind of battle, and there are always people who choose Pepsi. Going back to the Sega metaphor, Microsoft needs to find their Sonic the Hedgehog for expanded audience.

On the other hand, if Microsoft ignores the differences between the expanded audience and the traditional 360 audience, they could drive customers away. Pushing live, dlc, graphics, hardcore games, ect. would be indicative of this. The other potential pitfall would be if they feel that can't financially afford to target both markets and the enthusiast market pulls attention away from Kinect. It's too early to tell if Microsoft will make either of those mistakes, though.

I usually agree with you, but not on this. People (the new gamers that accounted for the Wii's success) saw WiiSports and bought it, the Wii just happened to be in the same box.

Yea. If anything, you could say that the first few weeks or so were driven by Zelda and core Nintendo fans. But then the Thanksgiving effect occurred; Nintendo nerds popped in Wii Sports to entertain their non-gaming friends and family and the system went viral.

I'm not talking about sales in Japan. I'm talking about people using sales of Wii Sports in a 1:1 fashion acting like the game obtain that many sales on it's own like it was a stand alone product. All I'm saying is that NPD doesn't count WiiSports sales so we can't pretend to know the true numbers of the game and hence it shouldn't be used.

Occam's razor.

 

[2real4tv]

The current 360 $299 bundle is a more saleable proposition than the $299 PS3, and is going to look outrageously superior to most eyes in comparison to the $399 Move bundle. That's pretty much the entire crux of the issue: PS3's past periods of success were based on being both at a price people were willing to pay (i.e. $299 or below) while also being a value leader at that price (i.e. having a better package than the equivalently-priced 360.) The second part is simply not true right now and that's creating significant challenges to selling the PS3 in the US.

I guess your right taking a quick look at BB 360 is offering better packages at a lower cost.

ex.
Microsoft - Xbox 360 4GB Console with LEGO Batman, LEGO Indiana Jones and LEGO Star Wars for $199 - For a normal parent this is a great deal. When a parent(money constrained which is most of us) purchases a console they don't want to have to worry about buying a game in addition.

 

[fernoca]

Yeah, removing the HDD is not going to do miracles. And putting flash-memory, no matter the size; is not a matter of just throwing the chip on top of everything. All the internals (and games) of the PS3 were designed with it using an HDD. Making some slight changes would still require some re-design and planning (not to mention, probably even compatibility problems), plus the costs involved. On the 360, the Flash Memory is recognized as a Memory Unit (Card) [some even say there's an actual memory card in there, like there's an Wi-Fi accessory connected with USB and everything inside, but I haven't seen it to confirm it] and you can format USB drives to be recognizes as Memory Units (cards) too; since the 360 has always been able to recognize those memory cards, compatibility problems (some games still need HDD) were kept to a minimum and i twas just a matter of bigger size.

They also stopped releasing 20GB models because it was cheaper for them to put higher HDD models. If less memory would mean reduced prices, you could bet they would still be releasing 20GB PS3/slim models "for cheap".

But who knows, maybe they are working at this very moment on that.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

You can't take it as exactly equivalent to a 1:1 sale where each Wii sold was equivalent to a Wii Sports standalone sale, but you can certainly legitimately consider it as having been the equivalent of, say, a 5+ million seller in terms of impact on the system's success without, I would say, even having to present any evidence.

I'm not going to argue about it since frankly I don't care. I'm not guessing one way or the other, just going by the data we have in front of us that NPD doesn't count WiiSports.

1) a 4GB PS3 simply would not work

2) Even if they were to use something larger than 4GB, such a change would require a new model and changes in the manufacturing process. Would that really make a $50 price drop worth it?

Well, Sony previously was able to drop off $100 from the price by:

Removing card readers
Removing Wifi
Lowering HDD space by 40gigs

Btw, I wouldn't put a redesign out of the idea since they may need a new motherboard to get rid of the PS3 hack.

It would be a publicity nightmare, selling a system in which, conservatively, wouldn't be able to play the 20% or more number of games out there with large mandatory installs.

Well, the highest an install can be is 5 gigs so guessing for overhead... a 10 gig machine would be fine. You'd have to delete each old install while new games came in and you wouldn't be able to play more than 1 at a time but it could be done.

 

[Brofist]

You don't think going from a 120GB HDD to some kind of 4GB flash memory built in would at least let them drop the price by $50?

It would be a publicity nightmare, selling a system in which, conservatively speaking, wouldn't be able to play the 20% or more number of games out there with large mandatory installs.

 

[Zoe]

Btw, I wouldn't put a redesign out of the idea since they may need a new motherboard to get rid of the PS3 hack.

How feasible would it be for them to split their manufacturing process though? Let's say 50% with flash memory and 50% with HDD.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

How feasible would it be for them to split their manufacturing process though? Let's say 50% with flash memory and 50% with HDD.

MS has been doing 2 skus like this just fine for a while now. Also, Sony is a HUGE manufacturer, I don't think they would have any problems.

 

[Vinci]

Now what system do you think they will pick up when either giving a gift or thinking about getting into gaming?

Right now? Whichever has Kinect.

 

[Jomjom]

Right now? Whichever has Kinect.

Kinect doesn't explain why the 360 was selling much better than the PS3 prior to Kinect existing.

 

[Vinci]

Kinect doesn't explain why the 360 was selling much better than the PS3 prior to Kinect existing.

MS is better at advertising.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Kinect doesn't explain why the 360 was selling much better than the PS3 prior to Kinect existing.

The Slim does. Microsoft planned the back half of the year much, much better than Sony did.

Starting from E3, they were out of the gate with new SKUs, summer of Arcade, a Halo game, Fable, etc.

Sony basically went "Well, at least we have this, this, and this" and chipped away at it until the only "this" left was Gran Turismo 5, which they managed to fuck up the launch of in ways even the most hardcore Sony pessimist would not have expected.

 

[Rolf NB]

You don't think going from a 120GB HDD to some kind of 4GB flash memory built in would at least let them drop the price by $50?

No.

http://www.pricewatch.com/gallery/hard_removable_drives/notebook_120gb

Far from 50$.

And you can bet your sweetie pie that when a big consumer electronics manufacturer orders a few million pieces at once, they get better deals than any random peasant gets when buying just one.

 

[TheListener]

MS is better at advertising.

Are you trying to say that the Xbox 360 has no value to consumers or to gamers?

 

[duk]

MS is better at advertising.

It's not just that however.

There is clearly enough value for the consumer to jump in when it comes to games, online service, and hardware.

 

[Ashes]

Sony do have a decent long term strategy with Move as far as price goes. If their plan is long term, than there is a chance that it will come good for them. We have to remember that the media and the whole $500 million marketing campaign, the Oprah reccommendation, all of that along with the Dance Central is spearheading their success.

But within the casual market there is the success of COD which stradles between casual and core. and I think Move is a better fit for that than Kinnect. And the price advantage will pay into that over time. Move titles are cheaper, and the product is cheaper. Sony have shifted a lot of that product, even in America. It isn't a failure like Psp Go is. I think Sony are working hard to create a demand for the product, because their long term core franchises may benefit from it. Title like Killzone 3, and Socom are pushing the Sharpshooter.

Move isn't done yet. I don't think. Sure Dance Central 2 will come in next year and sell bucket loads, but will Dance Central 3 or 4 do the same? I think long term, Cod mw 3 with move enhanced function may just do enough. Who knows? all I know is that where Fps is king, Move is a decent fit.

edit: I think what Microsoft need is their Wii Sport, as others have stated.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

But within the casual market there is the success of COD which stradles between casual and core. and I think Move is a better fit for that than Kinnect. And the price advantage will pay into that over time. Move titles are cheaper, and the product is cheaper. Sony have shifted a lot of that product, even in America. It isn't a failure like Psp Go is. I think Sony are working hard to create a demand for the product, because their long term core franchises may benefit from it. title like Killzone 3, and socom are pushing the Sharpshooter.

The price advantage only counts when looking at first party Move only games which has stated here were only 200k combined. What you mentioned here for games Killzone and Socom these are full priced $60 games and so will be every other controller based game with tacked on Move support. No price advantage.

 

[charlequin]

Kinect doesn't explain why the 360 was selling much better than the PS3 prior to Kinect existing.

The slim unit benefited both from the innate "zomg new model" bump and from improving the value proposition of the 360, as well as the fact that "playing BluRay movies" continues to decline in dollar value, hurting the PS3's value.

 

[Ashes]

The price advantage only counts when looking at first party Move only games which has stated here were only 200k combined. What you mentioned here for games Killzone and Socom these are full priced $60 games and so will be every other controller based game with tacked on Move support. No price advantage.

Fair point and I would agree as far as software goes. But the hardware entry point for the existing market on either platform is $99 to $149, yes?

 

[Ashes]

The slim unit benefited both from the innate "zomg new model" bump and from improving the value proposition of the 360, as well as the fact that "playing BluRay movies" continues to decline in dollar value, hurting the PS3's value.

Hard to conjecture. Because with a ps3, you get a console and a bluray player under that hd tv.

All that the cheap bluray players suggest to me is that there is an ever increasing demand for bluray players on the market. Something neither the x360 or wii can ever provide. And the latest trends show that devices are converging all the time, ps3 in that regards is ahead of the bump, right?

edit: x360 2 will have blu ray inside it. I'm absolutely sure. Sony will most likely get more value since, they've been working on their blu-ray thing for five years plus.

 

[Baki]

I'm not going to argue about it since frankly I don't care. I'm not guessing one way or the other, just going by the data we have in front of us that NPD doesn't count WiiSports.



Well, Sony previously was able to drop off $100 from the price by:

Removing card readers
Removing Wifi
Lowering HDD space by 40gigs

Btw, I wouldn't put a redesign out of the idea since they may need a new motherboard to get rid of the PS3 hack.



Well, the highest an install can be is 5 gigs so guessing for overhead... a 10 gig machine would be fine. You'd have to delete each old install while new games came in and you wouldn't be able to play more than 1 at a time but it could be done.

They were able to drop $100 off mainly by reducing the motherboard size (which was due to BC removal). Even then, they were still bleeding money.

 

[Maxwell House]

Yeah, with so many PS3 games requiring HD installs, it isn't feasible for Sony to manufacture a PS3 without at least a 20 gig disc based hard drive. Putting in 20 gigs of flash memory would be prohibitively expensive. It isn't realistic to think Sony can save money from changing the hard drive parameters at this point. Cost savings for future PS3s will need to be due to other parts (shrinking of the processors, streamlining the motherboard, etc).

 

[Maxwell House]

Kinect doesn't explain why the 360 was selling much better than the PS3 prior to Kinect existing.

360 wasn't selling THAT much better than PS3 before Kinect came out. They were pretty close in sales.

The massive gap in 360 sales and PS3s sales currently can without a doubt be traced to Kinect. Pachter said that a full 50% of the 360s sold in November were bundled with Kinect (so 650 to 700k 360 consoles in North America), showing how much selling and system moving power Kinect actually has.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

They were able to drop $100 off mainly by reducing the motherboard size (which was due to BC removal). Even then, they were still bleeding money.

I'm talking about the 20gig and 60gig unit.

Hard to conjecture. Because with a ps3, you get a console and a bluray player under that hd tv.

You can still get a 360 and a separate stand alone Blu-ray player for the same price as a PS3. And mom and dad don't have to wait for junior to stop playing games before they can watch a movie.

Fair point and I would agree as far as software goes. But the hardware entry point for the existing market on either platform is $99 to $149, yes?

Buying the Kinect with a system, Kinect is $100. Hard to say though since one Kinect works for two players where as you need two move wands for two players with move. Also a lot of games work better in single player with two wands (The Fight, Sports Champions).

 

[Ashes]

You can still get a 360 and a separate stand alone Blu-ray player for the same price as a PS3. And mom and dad don't have to wait for junior to stop playing games before they can watch a movie.

Possibly true, but converger devices gives one piece of hardware the advantage there. Price possibly plays a bigger part. Who's to know whether ps3 and x360 priced similiarly will still have an affect as it did last time.

 

[charlequin]

Hard to conjecture.

It's not a conjecture at all. The value of playing BluRay movies is more or less hard-capped by the actual price of standalone BluRay players, which has fallen dramatically since the time when the BRD was a major selling point for the PS3 and continues to fall rapidly as the technology becomes mainstreamed.

The entire value of the BRD for PS3 was based around the idea that, as of two years ago or so, you could buy a PS3 for $400/500 or you could buy a 360 for $200/300 and a standalone BluRay player for $300, and given that combination the PS3 was a steal (which, if you were in the market for both of those things, it was.) This element of value simply does not exist to a great degree anymore; BluRay players are cheap now and getting one "for free" with the PS3 does not command a particularly large makup any longer.

And the latest trends show that devices are converging all the time, ps3 in that regards is ahead of the bump, right?

There is no meaningful market of this sort driven by convergence for set-top boxes; people provably don't meaningfully value the difference between having one and two devices under their TV and as such there is no actual value added by having BluRay playback integrated into the PS3 rather than delivered as a separate standalone player.

Who's to know whether ps3 and x360 price similiarly will still have an affect as it did last time.

That would be "those of us who have paid attention to NPD results over the last few months," which have made it pretty unambiguous that as things stand right now, people are buying more $299 360s than they're buying $299 PS3s (or, in November, at all prices combined.)

 

[GhaleonEB]

It's not a conjecture at all. The value of playing BluRay movies is more or less hard-capped by the actual price of standalone BluRay players, which has fallen dramatically since the time when the BRD was a major selling point for the PS3 and continues to fall rapidly as the technology becomes mainstreamed.

The entire value of the BRD for PS3 was based around the idea that, as of two years ago or so, you could buy a PS3 for $400/500 or you could buy a 360 for $200/300 and a standalone BluRay player for $300, and given that combination the PS3 was a steal (which, if you were in the market for both of those things, it was.) This element of value simply does not exist to a great degree anymore; BluRay players are cheap now and getting one "for free" with the PS3 does not command a particularly large makup any longer.

FWIW, I'm getting a Blu-Ray player for Christmas. It cost $65 from Wal-Mart. I think there's a lot of merit to this line of reasoning. The added value of a Blu-Ray player just isn't that high any longer.