Support NeoGAF

[Wolves Evolve]

For the PS4 to draw even and then beat Xbox at launch by 200k shows what a crazy CRAZY year this has been.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

COD is always big title, at least big as 6m.

So not as big as GTA5 it seems. Lol at Activision, they finally blew it.

 

[Codeblew]

That equation is assuming that the Ghosts attach ratio of software to hardware for each platform is the same. Which it may not/probably is not [You're claiming that both the XB1 version and the PS4 version each sold 14.08% of the total userbase in this example]. You can't mathematically assume that.

The point is the math is correct assuming that attach rates are the same. I know you can't assume that but that is all the original guy had to go on when estimating PS4 numbers. I know the attach rate is not the same and is probably even lower on PS4 since it also had KZSF.

I was never arguing that the attach rate was the same, just that the math was correct assuming the attach rate was the same. People were calling out the original poster for bad math.

 

[Mory Dunz]

6 Mil for CoD?

Is that normal by this time?

 

[Road]

My head is hurting.

Sony could at least had told us how many units the PS family sold. Where's Pachter? Has he said anything about this NPD yet?

 

[famousmortimer]

If that isn't the exact number it's staggeringly close. Creamsugar is either a genius or a fucking genius.

 

[Satchel]

Is there a reason creamsugar won't just...you know, flat out give the figures?

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

COD is always big title, at least big as 6m.

Now we can break stuff down! I say start at 6.25 and go from there.

 

[Jarmel]

6 million sounds low by COD standards.

 

[The Last One]

Even COD sold more on PS4 than One, M$ got a problem right there.

 

[opticalmace]

So about 20k for Wii U ghosts.

 

[Bsigg12]

That's not what I'm doing. There are several numbers in there not next to any title. Either his post is missing information, or he selectively showed titles and broke down the difference between those title sales in their sum against the total PS4 sum. That difference is the random numbers in his post.

I just reread the whole thing. My bad. I see where you went now. That's pretty God damn impressive Anexanhume.

 

[famousmortimer]

Is there a reason creamsugar won't just...you know, flat out give the figures?

I always assumed it was the same reason that cboat types like he does. Plausible deniability.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

6 Mil for CoD?

Is that normal by this time?

Black Ops 1 launched with 8.4 million in November NPD.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Is there a reason creamsugar won't just...you know, flat out give the figures?

Neogaf would probably get into legal trouble is my guess.

 

[oggob]

No, you can't assume a copy of a game equals a system since people buy more than 1 game for their system.

That's not what he is hinting at, creamsugar mentioned that he hinted in the past few hours a possible PS4 figure, this post that it references in one of the only posts that reference hard numbers, creamsugar has carefully chosen the numbers that if you were to sum them you could get an estimated PS4 figure.

 

[anexanhume]

Those are meant as separators to show the min/max of sales for the respective games.

But I got nothing either. I don't see any hints, especially from the posts predating Jonsoncao saying that number.

Yes, but he could be selective in what number he chooses for the floor. For instance, don't we know from elsewhere that SM3DW is actually 215K? Seems like stuff may be a little off/selective to get the total right.

 

[ascii42]

So >19800 for WiiU version of Ghosts

 

[N.Domixis]

Is there a reason creamsugar won't just...you know, flat out give the figures?

Why do you want to know, they are ahead that's all they need to say.

 

[Xenon]

Teraway will be $20 at Gamestop. If you own a Vita, go buy and make that 14K into a 18K or maybe 20K+

I played the demo. While it had some interesting concepts and graphics, it was very boring to play. I don't think I'd even bother to download it for free on PS+. Ok I probably would, but I doubt I'd ever play it.

 

[nckillthegrimace]

Have you tried the demo? I dislike the touch controls but Tearaway is an exception. The game actually works really well with it and it's not tacked on like Uncharted was.

Yes. There's a part where you need to use the analog stick and the back touch at the same time to run on a log. It was extremely frustrating.

 

[theprodigy]

So not as big as GTA5 it seems. Lol at Activision, they finally blew it.

lmao Activision does not give a shit with their yearly releases that rake in far more cash combined than GTA

 

[Satchel]

I always assumed it was the same reason that cboat types like he does. Plausible deniability.

But it doesn't make sense

220K
DR3

How is that any different o him typing

Dead Rising 3 sold around about 220K?

 

[Ridley327]

6 million sounds low by COD standards.

It is, but it's just continuing the downward trend. MW3's launch was 9 million, BLOPS 2 was 7.5 million, and this would be another 1.5 million shaved off.

 

[Samyy]

Why do you want to know, they are ahead that's all they need to say.

lol

 

[Hiccup]

Just landed from an airplane. Recap of cream sugar numbers?

 

[stonesak]

Yes, but he could be selective in what number he chooses for the floor.

Ahh, you cracked the DaVinci code.

 

[KillerTravis]

I bought one. It is a lovely game.

I don't understand mainstream tastes or even "core" gamer tastes anymore.

Super Mario 3D World
A Link Between Worlds
Tearaway
Wonderful 101

These should have been some of the highest selling games of the year if people actually gave a shit about quality and innovation or anything outside of FPS and sports genres.

I hate consumers some times....most of the time actually.

Why would you even compare the first two with the last two? Zelda and Mario are going to sell just fine. Hell, Zelda is already at +400k.

 

[Wolves Evolve]

Is there a reason creamsugar won't just...you know, flat out give the figures?

Because he is a true showman and knows the value of a slow reveal.

 

[pieatorium]

70k for vita is super dead

220k for wiiu a month after pricecut with a new mario game is very dead

770k for 3ds with zelda, just after new hardware, those $99 deals and pokemon still hot is not good. Not terrible but they've fired pretty much every bullet they can for the system, expect next years yoy figures to be way down.

360 and PS3 dieing alot more than expected.

The next gen launches did great, everything else is not so much

 

[HamPster PamPster]

Is there a reason creamsugar won't just...you know, flat out give the figures?

Wheres the fun in that? If you don't like number puzzles the media create or box office results thread are that way

 

[Stumpokapow]

Is there a reason creamsugar won't just...you know, flat out give the figures?

gee i wonder

 

[Satchel]

Why do you want to know, they are ahead that's all they need to say.

Who said anything about PS4?

I'm talking about ALL the figures.

 

[Busaiku]

What really concerns me is the ridiculous Pokemon drop.
It had a 90% drop in its 2nd month, despite 2DS being $99 and good buzz for the game.

This is really bad news.

 

[Callibretto]

Does tearaway number include digital sales? Because pretty much all my vita games are digital nowadays.

 

[theprodigy]

What really concerns me is the ridiculous Pokemon drop.
It had a 90% drop in its 2nd month, despite 2DS being $99 and good buzz for the game.

This is really bad news.

80% drop, it's 450k total this month
....and didn't it not break 2 million first month anyway? so it's more like 75%

 

[ascii42]

Does tearaway number include digital sales? Because pretty much all my vita games are digital nowadays.

Nope, NPD is working out doing digital, but they aren't yet

 

[opticalmace]

Does tearaway number include digital sales? Because pretty much all my vita games are digital nowadays.

It does not. And FM said generally digital sales are about 60% on the Vita. Helps a little bit.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

COD

1 - 6.42%
4 - 7.39%
360 - 55.45%
3 - 30.42%
u - 0.33%

Using 6,250,000 total units sold

1 = 401,250
4 = 461,875
360 = 3,465,625
3 = 1,901,250
u = 20,625 (ouch)

 

[coolasj19]

TEARAWAY ~ 14k

Nooooooooo!! But!! BUT VITA MEANS LIFE!!

Sounds made up to me, like yield issues...

It's not made up. Y'know, I heard the dGPU is real, it's being shown behind closed doors. They delayed it because they don't know whether to market it as an add on or a major differentiator.

 

[emb]

Given there's random numbers not ascribed to titles, I assume those are the hints that they're to be added with the rest.

275+220+200+185+100+90+25+20+4= 1114K for PS4?

I think the extra numbers are just to give a better idea of what some of the games sold. Gives a tighter upper or lower bound.

 

[famousmortimer]

But it doesn't make sense

220K
DR3

How is that any different o him typing

Dead Rising 3 sold around about 220K?

Because one *you* are making an inference from.

The other *he* is flat out telling you.

 

[LinkMaster111]

It does not. And FM said generally digital sales are about 60% on the Vita. Helps a little bit.

Yeah, but that 60% includes digital only titles, so it's pretty useless.

 

[The_lascar]

 

[donny2112]

So we just need the PS4/PS3 breakout. It's apparently either 1234/420 or 1138/407, if the math is right.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

lmao Activision does not give a shit with their yearly releases that rake in far more cash combined than GTA

Losing the status as the "#1 one selling franchise" or "#1 online game" is a huge blow for their marketing. The sales drop is going to be a big question at their next quarterly meeting, unless Skylanders knocks it out of the park. They were wise to invest so much in Destiny, it's clear that CoD isn't going to be genre leader forever.

 

[Roo]

Nintendo, pack your bags already...

 

[Daingurse]

Don't really feel any sorrow seeing the Wii-U and Mario flounder, being right simply feels too good. With a Dreamcast level console, you gotta just enjoy the games. No more sales, no more suffering. It's over.

 

[theprodigy]

I think the extra numbers are just to give a better idea of what some of the games sold. Gives a tighter upper or lower bound.

bounds could be chosen arbitrarily to make the sum thing work
if it is correct, holy shit NPD sales encryption has reached a new level
in fact....you could call it next-gen encryption

 

[J-Man]

The point is the math is correct assuming that attach rates are the same. I know you can't assume that but that is all the original guy had to go on when estimating PS4 numbers. I know the attach rate is not the same and is probably even lower on PS4 since it also had KZSF.

I was never arguing that the attach rate was the same, just that the math was correct assuming the attach rate was the same. People were calling out the original poster for bad math.

Oh sorry, this thread is going fast! I see, yes, the math is correct with that assumption.