Support NeoGAF

[spwolf]

Take-Two needs to pay some commission to EA

 

[jakncoke]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...k-shred-flops-with-only-3000-units-sold-in-us

Tony Hawk Shred : 3,000
DJ Hero 2 : 59,000
MOH: a bit more than 1M
EA MMA: 45,000
NBA 2K11 : 1.15M (doubled it sales from last year).

wow it's amazing how the tony hawk franchise went from multi million selling franchise to not even selling 10k in the first week.

 

[TheSeks]

So basically:

-People like Oblivion with Guns in Vegas.
-More people bought it on PS3 (despite it being gimped) over PC, while 360 continued to lead (not really a shocker)
-Hardcore gamers on PS3 can't give two fucks about waggle (WHAT A SHOCKER!</sarcasm>)
-Console games are moving toward online play as that's where the money/playerbase is wanting to go.

Well, gee. You didn't really need to be Pachter to be able to tell this.

The worst trend above is the shift from single-player games. I can understand older/30+ gamers wanting games like Call of Duty for quick 10 minute sessions and I can't blast them for it, but paying $60 for the "flavor of the month shooter" that is online-only doesn't sit well with me on consoles when their servers can be shut down without any notice and there is no back-up plan to let owners on the console verison play it elsewhere. :|

That, and I like singleplayer games.

 

[verbum]

Some people here seem to not know that last-gen there was a period when the Xbox outsold the PS2 in the US and how this didn´t matter all that much in the whole picture. But many are very quick to start the doom and gloom talk especially about Nintendo systems even the NDS wasn´t safe from this. The X360 had a relaunch with it´s slim a few months ago and games with big marketing campaigns like Halo and a huge marketing campaign for Kinect so it´s no surprise that sales got better. But we have also to keep in mind that even these sales are far away from what Wii did the last 3 years and the Wii sold more than 30mio units in the USA.

It will be interesting to see how the sales will look like next year, how a possible new system in 2012 or even the 3DS next year will affect on current gen hardware sales and if Microsoft really intends to give their competition a more than one year headstart for the first next-gen system.

From things MS has said about the Kinect being like a new console launch, my thinking is that MS will improve Kinect and the 360 incrementally for the next 5 years. I can see the 360 being basically a "new" console in 5 years time with new processor, graphics chip, etc without a console launch taking place.
And if Kinect grows in market share, MS could have a larger income due to the 360 becoming present in more households. The new Live subscriptions and Kinect sales would make up any potential loss of sales to the PS3 and a new Wii becoming the consoles of choice for "hardcore" gamers.
Halo has probably seen its better days as a franchise. Gears of War may also decline. Forza is getting the Kinect treatment so it may have a boost next year.
I imagine a Kinect game could become their big exclusive in the next 2 years. Not sure which game that would be or what type of game it would be.
In my imagination, their next big game would be one where a Alan Wake type of storyline is merged with a Fallout 3 type of game mechanic. The VATS shooting mechanic could be controlled by a motion controller.

 

[HK-47]

So basically:

-People like Oblivion with Guns in Vegas.
-More people bought it on PS3 (despite it being gimped) over PC, while 360 continued to lead (not really a shocker)
-Hardcore gamers on PS3 can't give two fucks about waggle (WHAT A SHOCKER!</sarcasm>)
-Console games are moving toward online play as that's where the money/playerbase is wanting to go.

Well, gee. You didn't really need to be Pachter to be able to tell this.

The worst trend above is the shift from single-player games. I can understand older/30+ gamers wanting games like Call of Duty for quick 10 minute sessions and I can't blast them for it, but paying $60 for the "flavor of the month shooter" that is online-only doesn't sit well with me on consoles when their servers can be shut down without any notice and there is no back-up plan to let owners on the console verison play it elsewhere. :|

That, and I like singleplayer games.

Why not read before you derp? Thats retail only.

 

[Road]

-More people bought it on PS3 (despite it being gimped) over PC[...]

There's no information on digital downloads -- the PC version may have sold more in reality.


Beaten.

 

[Archie]

How long until Activision pulls a Bizarre on Robomodo and Freestyle Games?

edit: 100k retail for the PC version of New Vegas just at retail seems like alot in my opinion. I remember Borderlands PC selling something like 10k at retail during its first month.

 

[Stumpokapow]

FO3/FO:NV really aren't Oblivion with Guns.

Unless "staring contest first person dialog segments" makes something Oblivion.

 

[Laguna]

Kirby and Wii Party came out in October. October might seem a bit skewed towards 360, but there's really nothing in future to reverse the trend in Wii's favor.

Yes.

Kirby especially with its style in epic yarn isn´t exactly a game with mainstream appeal (I´m talking about videogamers here) and games like Wii Party and many high selling Wii games aren´t known for immediate big numbers but for their persistent performance in the 80k-150k range and especially Wii Party will benefit from the holiday season no doubt about that.

and since you are talking about trends and X360, the most obvious trend is that besides the most marketed games like Fallout and Ego Shooters more and more games sell rather poorly like Vanquish, Castlevania, Enslaved all games with a more than decent budget and little chance to have "long-legs".

 

[Pooya]

Also PC games have higher profit margins than console games (due to licensing etc).

 

[Owzers]

How long until Activision pulls a Bizarre on Robomodo and Freestyle Games?

edit: 100k retail for the PC version of New Vegas just at retail seems like alot in my opinion. I remember Borderlands PC selling something like 10k at retail during its first month.

apparently it already happened a month ago partly.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2010-10-12-tony-hawk-shred-team-axed

" Tony Hawk shred team axed"

 

[Elios83]

and since you are about talking trends and X360, the most obvious trend is that besides the most marketed games like Fallout and Ego Shooters more and more games sell rather poorly like Vanquish, Castlevania, Enslaved all games with a more than decent budget and little chance to have "long-legs".

There is also a marketing problem with those titles. Most people don't even know of their existence, how can they perform well.
Publishers should also invest to let people know about their products.........I know that it's difficult having limited budgets and all but it's necessary.

 

[Owzers]

Kirby especially with its style in epic yarn isn´t exactly a game with mainstream appeal (I´m talking about videogamers here) and games like Wii Party and many high selling Wii games aren´t known for immediate big numbers but for their persistent performance in the 80k-150k range and especially Wii Party will benefit from the holiday season no doubt about that.

and since you are about talking trends and X360, the most obvious trend is that besides the most marketed games like Fallout and Ego Shooters more and more games sell rather poorly like Vanquish, Castlevania, Enslaved all games with a more than decent budget and little chance to have "long-legs".

The key being " more and more", since a higher number of quality games release on ps3/360 most every month, there are going to be a lot of successes and a lot of failures. You can't flood the market with software and expect everything to hit.

 

[WrikaWrek]

Problem with the Wii is that it stagnated. Software offerings didn't exactly become much better, and the novelty of the controller is starting to not be enough.

This generation is gonna have one big story to tell by the time its over.

 

[CadetMahoney]

Is Industrygamers a reputable source?

Never heard of that site b4. Wonder how their numbers compare to NPD in general.

 

[FrankT]

Never heard of that site b4. Wonder how their numbers compare to NPD in general.

In general they are a decent site. I do remember one occurrence they were wrong though.

 

[Curufinwe]

There's no information on digital downloads -- the PC version may have sold more in reality.

107,000 retail sales on the PC seems impressive to me.

At this point I'd rather see leaked Steam sales figures than leaked Half Life 3 information. An Excel spreadsheet with unit sales for every game sold on Steam in 2010 would be so awesome.

 

[storybook77]

Meh. As far as RockBand 3 is concerned, I think the November numbers will be closer to the truth of whether it really bombed or not seeing as it was out for a total of 6 days in October.

Castlevania not being on the list really makes me sad though.

 

[butter_stick]

How long until Activision pulls a Bizarre on Robomodo and Freestyle Games?

edit: 100k retail for the PC version of New Vegas just at retail seems like alot in my opinion. I remember Borderlands PC selling something like 10k at retail during its first month.

Robomodo aren't owned by Activision.

They're the lucky ones ;_;

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

I'm basing this largely on Kinect. It has sold 1 million in 10 days BTW.

Worldwide, which the NPD doesn't track.

I'd also suggest it would be foolish to expect that to be a linear sales trend; it won't have sold 2 million in 20 days, or 3 million in 30.

Also assuming that the Wii will never surpass the 360 in sales again(only with a price cut)

I'd imagine a Wii pricecut is (over)due. A $99 Wii would absolutely kill at retail.

Kinect is like the equivalent of a new system launch. But it already has proven legs and Nintendo went from the Gamecube to the Wii which is amazing.

Anything is possible

I don't really understand your point here, Kinect does not have 'proven legs', unless you assume that every hardware accessory for every console ever made also has 'proven legs'.

I don't understand the relevance of 'gamecube to wii' either, the Wii was part of a fundamental shift in business philosophy at nintendo (and isn't even the first indicator, the DS was), the Kinect shows the exact same business philosophies that MS has utilised this entire generation.

 

[butter_stick]

Meh. As far as RockBand 3 is concerned, I think the November numbers will be closer to the truth of whether it really bombed or not seeing as it was out for a total of 6 days in October.

Castlevania not being on the list really makes me sad though.

It's very unlikely RB3 is going to get some massive boost next month.

Ultimately the real story is told over a less glamorous 12 month period.

 

[Curufinwe]

Not calling it Halo 4 was probably bad. As pretty much everyone has said, people probably think it's not a "full game" a la ODST.

I think sticking a 3 between Creed and Brotherhood would directly translate into thousands more in sales for Ubisoft, so it puzzles me why they left it out.

 

[szaromir]

Worldwide, which the NPD doesn't track.

I'd also suggest it would be foolish to expect that to be a linear sales trend; it won't have sold 2 million in 20 days, or 3 million in 30.

It's also foolish to expect it to slow down in December.

Apart from Christmas.

True, I am a believer in Wii's strong perferomance in December, PS360 have nothing for younger audience which is going to be Wii's strong selling point. After that though...

 

[Cheech]

Wow. Fantastic sales for Fallout: New Vegas. Makes me happy.

It shouldn't. What it tells the industry is, "Buggy shitpiles are A-OK!"

 

[V_Arnold]

It shouldn't. What it tells the industry is, "Buggy shitpiles are A-OK!"

While you are right, the game is good and unique. I wonder which one should be stronger. Let us see if bugs will get fixed in time (at least the gamebreaking ones).

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

It's also foolish to expect it to slow down in December.

True, but it's by no means a sure thing that reported Kinect sales so far aren't front loaded due to marketing.

As you point out, December is a major retail month for all electronics, it will be impossible to gauge demand of Kinect (ie if it is a success or a blip) until Januarys sales come in.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Apart from Christmas.

I'm sure it'd do good numbers, but people need to keep their eye on the 360/kindle 299.99 bundle. It's only 100 dollars more, and unless my micro-world is an anomaly, this is the new hotness. I expect Wii numbers to drop significantly.

 

[storybook77]

It's very unlikely RB3 is going to get some massive boost next month.

Ultimately the real story is told over a less glamorous 12 month period.

I don't mean to say that it will sell like Call of Duty or anything but it should see better numbers through a full month with some post-Thanksgiving units moved as well.

I agree with you though, it'll be more of a year long track plus anyone considering purchasing them will be looking at how well the DLC sells as well.

 

[Laguna]

There is also a marketing problem with those titles. Most people don't even know of their existence, how can they perform well.
Publishers should also invest to let people know about their products.........I know that it's difficult having limited budgets and all but it's necessary.

I doubt that´s the only reason, just look at Blur it had a big marketing campaign was developed by a popular developer but sold poorly. But the trend on X360 (and to an extant also US) is clear Ego-Shooter/sports games or games with big marketing campaign like Fallout or bust. And it´s not like Castlevania wasn´t hyped/marketed in the press with good coverage either.

 

[marc^o^]

I'm sure it'd do good numbers, but people need to keep their eye on the 360/kindle 299.99 bundle. It's only 100 dollars more, and unless my micro-world is an anomaly, this is the new hotness. I expect Wii numbers to drop significantly.

Is xBox sold in all toy chains in US? In France only Wii is, and that makes a huge difference in a period where these resellers make >40% of their annual sales.

 

[farnham]

Is xBox sold in all toy chains in US? In France only Wii is, and that makes a huge difference in a period where these resellers make >40% of their annual sales.

france is a different market

in europe, outside of the UK, the 360 never was particularly strong

 

[storybook77]

Is xBox sold in all toy chains in US? In France only Wii is, and that makes a huge difference in a period where these resellers make >40% of their annual sales.

Yes, Xbox and PS3 can be found pretty much wherever Wii is.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

It shouldn't. What it tells the industry is, "Buggy shitpiles are A-OK!"

What I'm really curious about is how New Vegas got through two separate certification processes where two console manufacturers said "You know what, this is okay, this can ship."

 

[1-D_FTW]

Is xBox sold in all toy chains in US? In France only Wii is, and that makes a huge difference in a period where these resellers make >40% of their annual sales.

It's definitely sold everywhere a Wii is (including the toy stores).

I've had a couple people call me asking about video games and they were really pumped about getting a 360/Kinect system for their kids. People who have no interest in gaming, but were shockingly up to snuff on the major points. As I said, maybe it's an anomaly, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 360 own this Christmas.

 

[jcm]

No-one seems to have done it yet, so here's the hardware figures with YoY change:

NDS - 342k (-25.3%)
360 - 325k (+30.2%)
PS3 - 250k (-22.0%)
WII - 232k (-54.3%)

Pretty horrific all told. Wii is in deep trouble.

Missing column added for the math-challenged like me.

      2009   2010    %Chng
NDS   458k   342k    -25.3
360   250k   325k     30.2
PS3   321k   250k    -22.0
WII   507k   232k    -54.3

PS3 and 360 basically swapped places, so the hardware decline rests entirely on Wii/DS and (probably) PSP/PS2.

 

[Elios83]

I doubt that´s the only reason, just look at Blur it had a big marketing campaign was developed by a popular developer but sold poorly. But the trend on X360 (and to an extant also US) is clear Ego-Shooter/sports games or games with big marketing campaign like Fallout or bust. And it´s not like Castlevania wasn´t hyped/marketed in the press with good coverage either.

I wouldn't blame the 360, although it's true that their audience loves first person shooters it's not like on PS3 whose users are more oriented towards the action/adventure genre things go considerably different.
Just to put it straightly...........when God of War sells 1.1m in its first month, Uncharted 2 around 600k and Castlevania about 100k (guessing the PS3 SKU), it's clear that being a popular and recognized IP plays a huge part.

 

[jcm]

What I'm really curious about is how New Vegas got through two separate certification processes where two console manufacturers said "You know what, this is okay, this can ship."

MS and Sony split about $10M in New Vegas royalties this month in the US. A failed certification might have meant missing the holiday entirely, since production schedules are so tight. Worldwide sales through the end of the year will probably be in the neighborhood of $50M in royalties. Would you fail it? Especially if you didn't believe the other platform was going to do so?

When push comes to shove, all three companies care much more about money than about the quality of blockbuster third party games.

 

[orion434]

I was way too high on my predictions... any title that is multiplatform has an advantage with this new ranking.

 

[Laguna]

I wouldn't blame the 360, although it's true that their audience loves first person shooters it's not like on PS3 whose users are more oriented towards the action/adventure genre things go considerably different.
Just to put it straightly...........when God of War sells 1.1m in its first month, Uncharted 2 around 600k and Castlevania about 100k (guessing the PS3 SKU), it's clear that being a popular and recognized IP plays a huge part.

That´s what I´m saying, the trend is Ego-Shooters/sports and big(gest), most marketed names the rest in most cases perform poorly. I doubt that´s in any way a healthy trend especially for big budget games. And knowing that Castlevania did less than 220k (sales for this months nr.10) on two similar plattforms (best case), probably it did worse, it´s really disheartening for a Castlevania fan. Let´s hope Igarashi was working on a 2D Castlevania in the meantime or it could be the last one for now.

 

[Haunted]

Those were fun. haha


- If the Wii stopped selling, the 360, at this month's rate, would catch up with it in 26 months (December 2012).

- If the Wii stopped selling, the PS3, at this month's rate, would catch up with it in 68 months (June 2016).

- If the Wii and the 360 continued selling at the same rate, the 360 would catch up with the Wii in 91 months (May 2018).

- If the Wii and the PS3 continued selling at the same rate, the PS3 would catch up with the Wii in 940 months (February 2088).

 

[Cheech]

MS and Sony split about $10M in New Vegas royalties this month in the US. A failed certification might have meant missing the holiday entirely, since production schedules are so tight. Worldwide sales through the end of the year will probably be in the neighborhood of $50M in royalties. Would you fail it? Especially if you didn't believe the other platform was going to do so?

When push comes to shove, all three companies care much more about money than about the quality of blockbuster third party games.

I imagine the certification process goes something like this:

Does the game boot---------Y------Ship
Does the game boot---------N------Put on production schedule a week later than planned

When it comes to NV specifically, as you can tell from my avatar I'm a huge fan of Fallout. But after getting screwed and having all of my game saves eaten by the 360 version of New Vegas, I am sitting on the PC version until the thing has seen a few rounds of patches.

No more Day 1 Obsidian games for me, thanks.

 

[Massa]

Why not read before you derp? Thats retail only.

And you think Steam is outselling retail 3:1? Are you from the future?

At this point I'd rather see leaked Steam sales figures than leaked Half Life 3 information. An Excel spreadsheet with unit sales for every game sold on Steam in 2010 would be so awesome.

That is depressing.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Some people here seem to not know that last-gen there was a period when the Xbox outsold the PS2 in the US and how this didn´t matter all that much in the whole picture. But many are very quick to start the doom and gloom talk especially about Nintendo systems even the NDS wasn´t safe from this. The X360 had a relaunch with it´s slim a few months ago and games with big marketing campaigns like Halo and a huge marketing campaign for Kinect so it´s no surprise that sales got better. But we have also to keep in mind that even these sales are far away from what Wii did the last 3 years and the Wii sold more than 30mio units in the USA.

It will be interesting to see how the sales will look like next year, how a possible new system in 2012 or even the 3DS next year will affect on current gen hardware sales and if Microsoft really intends to give their competition a more than one year headstart for the first next-gen system.

I doubt a strong month/period with some big marketed games for one side and a extremely low one for the other side shows the whole picture and it sure doesn´t support your generalizing claim.

The PS3 and 360 both pulled in more than double the amount of software revenue in October. It would take a miracle (read: NSMB2) for that to be completely reversed in the next 12 months. It certainly won't happen during the launch of Black Ops/GT5/Assassin's Creed.

I was wrong about NSMB being as big as it was, but I really, really don't see DKCR and Epic Mickey capturing even an iota of the same success. Just Dance 2 and NSMBWii will likely be the best-selling Wii games in November and December.

In context, the Xbox outsold the PS2 because the PS2 was supply constrained. The Wii is not, and it's sales have been falling month to month since the middle of the year. I would be shocked if they sold even 50% of what they moved last year.

 

[Haunted]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...k-shred-flops-with-only-3000-units-sold-in-us

Tony Hawk Shred : 3,000
DJ Hero 2 : 59,000
MOH: a bit more than 1M
EA MMA: 45,000
NBA 2K11 : 1.15M (doubled it sales from last year).

oh Tony

 

[Haunted]

I imagine the certification process goes something like this:

Does the game boot---------Y------Ship
Does the game boot---------N------Put on production schedule a week later than planned

:lol


Cert is really strict, but they're obviously making exceptions for big releases.

 

[butter_stick]

Rock Band 3 has a system lockup bug that I've experienced countless times. I don't have much faith in the certification process...

 

[DMeisterJ]

Have we gotten RB3 sales?

 

[LosDaddie]

Good showing, MS. Good showing

I'm happy to see Halo Reach sales still going strong! Hopefully there's a nice sales bump in NOv. & Dec for the game. It's the best FPS on consoles, IMO. Well deserved success for Bungie.

And, man, seeing Fable 3 selling good is...kinda sad for me. I really need to finish Fable 2.


Next month should be interesting with KINECT sales....

 

[Cheech]

And you think Steam is outselling retail 3:1? Are you from the future?

Retail PC gaming is in such dire straits because:

1. Many PC gamers have migrated to console gamers.

2. PC gamers are buying their games digitally.

I wouldn't go as high as 3:1, but I can easily believe that if you combined all the digital distribution services, you would see 2:1 sales for Fallout: NV. Unlike console gamers, I believe the stereotypical PC gamer hangs out on GAF. And we are buying our games digitally.

 

[jetjevons]

A bunch of great games selling awfully. Suckitude all round if you ask me.

Edit: I'm talking about the sub 225k sellers.

At least November is going to be huge.