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[Mpl90]

Ah, 385,000 for TEW? That sounds very good for a brand new IP in the horror genre!

...This also means Destiny really fell off this month. Yeah, bundles not included, but still a massive drop. I'm even wondering if it's under 300,000 units sold (bundles excluded, again).

 

[CosmicQueso]

Wedbush Report (Pachter) has NPD numbers and should cost far less (Or not).

Pachter's report earlier this year was openly posted for download for a while. There was even a thread. It had years of historical NPD data in it. If people really wanted to get to the historical information it was freely available. Not sure if they meant to have that open for download or if it was an accident, however.

Full-game downloads are still only 20% max so it's really not big of a deal.

This is growing quickly... day 1's can easily be 30%+ digital now, but I see what you're saying. I would argue, however, that full game downloads as well as DLC is a huge deal now.

But if i were to follow this line of thought, you can just as well argue that because more and more of the sales go untracked via digital, then the retail data isn't as important and thus they will be more lax about sharing it,

On the other hand, quite often in declining markets, companies try to grasp on to control tighter and tighter, and try to milk more and more out of what's left. This makes declining industries more protective of their products and markets, not less.

 

[Pennywise83]

I still need to comprehend why NPD hides gaming industry numbers so much, while other industries aren't so secretive. I don't know, I see this as a sign of "immaturity" of the whole industry, and I feel sorry to say that. This also helps VGsomethingsomethingz (you know what I'm talking about) to be even considered as "remotely reliable" by people who don't follow gaming news that much and that would just like to know how things are going. We've had recent articles from non-gaming outlets that used false VG...Z numbers, it keeps happening. IMHO; this damages NPD's image too: how can an entity being considered important and relevant about something from non-subscribers if it doesn't even share the necessary informations about what's going on in the tracked industry? Why is there such a need for secretiveness? I'm not even saying that they should tell us everything, just...the minimal requirements would be good already: hardware sales, top 10 sales, maybe individual, but even combined SKUs. This is the minimum, and yet we're completely oblivious about the minimum.

1. it's a profit company, not an "entity".
2. why should NPD care about people that are not willing to pay to purchase its products? NPD is somewhat reliable and respected, and as long as has purchasers, it will keep its information as much secret as possible.
3. it's not true NPD is so special, and that the gaming industry is so behind the times; typically, you don't have much information about sales of products in other industries as well.

 

[allan-bh]

Pachter's report earlier this year was openly posted for download for a while. There was even a thread. It had years of historical NPD data in it. If people really wanted to get to the historical information it was freely available. Not sure if they meant to have that open for download or if it was an accident, however.

Too bad I missed that.

 

[beast786]

So what is the cost and where do you sign up for NPD?

 

[Occam]

It's still not NPD's data to share even if it wanted to. It would need to get agreement from all the associated parties (retail, pubs, 1st parties), and there's really no incentive for those companies to agree to share that information publicly.

Yes it is. It's NPD's market research, and of course they could share it if they wanted to. They are not getting insider information from any of the companies, they count sales at retailers. Maybe the platform holders wouldn't be happy about it, but there would be nothing they could do, other than no longer buy NPD's data. Which is why NPD doesn't wish to anger them.

 

[Amentallica]

Meant for a particular game.

 

[allan-bh]

Ah, 385,000 for TEW? That sounds very good for a brand new IP in the horror genre!

...This also means Destiny really fell off this month. Yeah, bundles not included, but still a massive drop. I'm even wondering if it's under 300,000 units sold (bundles excluded, again).

It's a big drop, but I think is normal.

Halo Reach for example sold 315k on second month, after 3.3m

 

[prag16]

It's still not NPD's data to share even if it wanted to. It would need to get agreement from all the associated parties (retail, pubs, 1st parties), and there's really no incentive for those companies to agree to share that information publicly.

Do retailers have exclusive contracts with NPD such that the retailers will not divulge any sales information to any entity other than the NPD group?

If not, this makes no sense to me.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Yes it is. It's NPD's market research, and of course they could share it if they wanted to. They are no getting insider information from any of the companies, they count sales at retailers. Maybe the platform holders wouldn't be happy about it, but there would be nothing they could do.

Who do you think they acquire the retail sales data from? And do those sources not have agreements with 1st parties and publishers? And do the 1st parties and publishers not have other agreements with NPD? Sorry, you're just incorrect.

Do retailers have exclusive contracts with NPD.

Other syndicated data firms have dabbled in games data, but effectively NPD is the exclusive.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Even if you could reliably track digital sales, the ubiquity of DLC packs and microtransactions make even those numbers increasingly meaningless.

If COD sells 10 million copies physical, 2 million copies digital, 6 million $15 map packs, 2 million $5 gun packs, and 12 million $1 camo hats, you're increasingly missing a bigger and bigger chunk of the pie.

In a game like Unity that is deliberately designed to prey on whales on top of the $60 game + $30 season pass crowd, how do you even keep pace? There are people who are going to spend $99+ on DLC for these games.

 

[Kill3r7]

So what is the cost and where do you sign up for NPD?

See below

Tens to hundreds of thousands, actually, depending on depth of data and contract length.

 

[Occam]

And do those sources not have agreements with 1st parties and publishers?.

Why should they? And what kind of contracts would that be?

 

[Elios83]

Seems like we'll have to wait until the datas become enough old story to get them leaked by someone. Sad NPD thread :/

 

[Kill3r7]

Why should they? And what kind of contracts would that be?

It's propriety data protected under trade secret.

 

[Exile20]

That was a surprise. SO not being on there with only 4 days of sales is not shocking to me at all. The big shock was the EXCLUSIVE DRIVECLUB on PS4 that released early in October was not in the top 10. That is pretty shocking to me. The fact that there really is not a mainline racing game on the system and that it was exclusive and with the bazillion owners of PS4 that something like that should of cracked the top ten. That is the most shocking thing to me.

Granted there are the online issues that are not even remotely close to the stuff Halo is going through, what sucks is that the core game itself was pretty damn good. I earned all the stars in the game and never in 3 weeks got on-line. The game has great visuals, plays great and is just a lot of fun, but due to the issues it seems that PS4 owners said fuck it and did not even think about buying it.

That is actually a good thing, Drive club launch was horrible . The same should happen to unity. Maybe halo also. Depends how fast they get their shit together.

 

[sörine]

Ah, 385,000 for TEW? That sounds very good for a brand new IP in the horror genre!

I don't know how it's been in Europe but in the US advertising is crazy for the game. Like I've seen nearly as many TEW ads as I did Destiny or Titianfall, and they're still running ads even.

Survival horror or not, I don't think sub 400k is really a great reflection on the sort if investment that must be being pumped into promoting the game.

 

[Nirolak]

So Bayonetta 2, Driveclub, Sunset Overdrive and Alien Isolation all tanked? Jeeze.

I know this can sound ridiculous when looking at the forum, but most people would rather just buy annual sports titles, an entry in something they know they like (Borderlands, Smash), or keep playing what they already have (and maybe get some new DLC for it).

It's very hard to sell a new IP or a niche concept to people. How many people are going to go out and spend $60 on something they don't know they will like, or think they won't get a lot of value out of?

With Destiny or The Evil Within you could at least look at what the developer used to do (and they sold so much with games like Halo and Resident Evil that chances are you have played their games before, with marketing that made sure to point out what they made prior) and have some assurances of what you were getting into. Destiny even had a public beta to help cinch the deal.

I think Mordor looking like a mix of Batman and Assassin's Creed was a big help to it. People could see a brand they liked and gameplay they recognized and go "Yeah, maybe I'll get this, and these types of games usually have a ton of content to boot." I don't think the other games had this kind of appeal.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Why should they? And what kind of contracts would that be?

Retailers have all kinds of retail marketing agreements with 1st parties and publishers. Comarketing deals are probably the most impactful (all those banners hanging from the ceiling cost pubs and 1st parties a lot of money) but there are also inventory flow considerations, temporary price reduction programs... retail makes a tremendous amount of money from partnering with pubs and 1st parties.

NPD makes its money selling the retail data to the pubs, 1st parties, investment community, etc.

No way any of these parties, NPD in particular, would want to jeopardize any of these relationships in order to publicly release information that would be used primarily in message board battles.

 

[prag16]

Other syndicated data firms have dabbled in games data, but effectively NPD is the exclusive.

If retailers are willing to divulge info to entities other than NPD, then I go back to my previous comment: What I quoted from you in my last post doesn't make sense.

It's propriety data protected under trade secret.

But CosmicQueso said retailer have provided data to other entities aside from NPD.

 

[foxbeldin]

Just realised this : November NPD thread is gonna go nuts without the numbers

 

[Green Yoshi]

Software:

1. NBA 2K15 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)
2. Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (3DS)
3. The Evil Within (PS4, Xbox One, PS3, 360, PC)
4. Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel (360, PS3, PC)
5. Destiny (360, Xbox One, PS4, PS3)
6. Skylanders: Trap Team (360, Wii, Wii U, PS3, Xbox One, PS4, 3DS, mobile)
   [*]FIFA 15 (PS4, 360, PS3, Xbox One, Wii, PS Vita, 3DS)
   [*]Madden NFL 15 (360, PS4, PS3, Xbox One)
7. Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor (PS4, XBox One, PC)
8. Minecraft (360, PS3, PS4)

What happened with the USA and where is NBA Live 15? ;-)

 

[CosmicQueso]

If retailers are willing to divulge info to entities other than NPD, then I go back to my previous comment: What I quoted from you in my last post doesn't make sense.

See above. I hear what you're saying, and I can see why it may not make sense. Just trying to explain how it is.

But CosmicQueso said retailer have provided data to other entities aside from NPD.

Theoretically retail perhaps could give that information to other syndicated providers (I honestly don't know if there is exclusivity language in those contracts), but that does not happen now. Nielsen has dabbled in games data, but they've used more a panel model, where they have a sample of consumers, track their purchases, and then project off that sample. But now we're getting down into some of the nitty gritty detail I don't know specifics about.

 

[Occam]

It's propriety data protected under trade secret.

[citation needed]

Why would I as a retailer not be allowed to disclose how much I buy/sell of article X?

 

[Paganmoon]

Considering Aqua's ban ends on the 18:th, we might get some solid numbers in 4 days right?

 

[FonkyByNature]

Happy The Evil Within charted !

But no Sunset Overdrive or/and Bayonetta 2 is sad. Both games are incredible. I've been playing SO the past few weeks and the game may not be perfect, but it's a great, everything goes, fun !

Hopefully sales between PS4 and Xbox One are closer because Sony needs a kick in the ass from MS to get things done. I think MS are doing well for bringing exclusives like SO, FH2 and Halo.

November will be epic though with all the games, price drop, black friday deals and all that... It'll be an entertaining GAF thread for sure !!!

 

[prag16]

Considering Aqua's ban ends on the 18:th, we might get some solid numbers in 4 days right?

-_-

 

[Kill3r7]

If retailers are willing to divulge info to entities other than NPD, then I go back to my previous comment: What I quoted from you in my last post doesn't make sense.



But CosmicQueso said retailer have provided data to other entities aside from NPD.

Trade secret law allows for your to share info/brochures with other entities but you need to take steps to protect the proprietary data and this is done through NDAs and diligent enforcement of said NDAs.

 

[allan-bh]

Considering Aqua's ban ends on the 18:th, we might get some solid numbers in 4 days right?

Didn't she requested 3 month ban?

 

[beast786]

See below

Wow thanks

 

[FFP2]

Aww I'm dissapointed that Sunset didn't do too well.

 

[Joni]

Do retailers have exclusive contracts with NPD such that the retailers will not divulge any sales information to any entity other than the NPD group?

If not, this makes no sense to me.

It is insider information. They don't want it widely shared.

 

[CosmicQueso]

[citation needed]

Why would I as a retailer not be allowed to disclose how much I buy/sell of article X?

Sure, you could disclose that data. But then that $X million in comarketing dollars you were hoping to get out of that publisher's next big game? Yeah... that could all of a sudden fall out of the publisher's budget. #followthemoney

 

[Occam]

Sure, you could disclose that data. But then that $X million in comarketing dollars you were hoping to get out of that publisher's next big game? Yeah... that could all of a sudden fall out of the publisher's budget. #followthemoney

So it's no trade secret after all? I see.

 

[Kill3r7]

[citation needed]

Why would I as a retailer not be allowed to disclose how much I buy/sell of article X?

They certainly can but if they want to protect their sales data under trade secret law they need to be diligent in keeping it a secret. Ultimately, they want to sell such info because MONEY.

 

[prag16]

So it's no trade secret after all? I see.

This. People keep using terms like "trade secret" and "proprietary". Improperly it seems.

 

[Occam]

They certainly can but if they want to protect their sales data under trade secret law they need to be diligent in keeping it a secret. Ultimately, they want to sell such info because MONEY.

So it's no trade secret after all and they are not obligated to not disclose it? I see.

 

[Elandyll]

That was a surprise. SO not being on there with only 4 days of sales is not shocking to me at all. The big shock was the EXCLUSIVE DRIVECLUB on PS4 that released early in October was not in the top 10. That is pretty shocking to me. The fact that there really is not a mainline racing game on the system and that it was exclusive and with the bazillion owners of PS4 that something like that should of cracked the top ten. That is the most shocking thing to me.

Granted there are the online issues that are not even remotely close to the stuff Halo is going through, what sucks is that the core game itself was pretty damn good. I earned all the stars in the game and never in 3 weeks got on-line. The game has great visuals, plays great and is just a lot of fun, but due to the issues it seems that PS4 owners said fuck it and did not even think about buying it.

To put things in perspective.

Driveclub is a brand new IP, with a nice helping of negative buzz that's been following it (even if some fans were swearing by it and its gfx, the media was not really kind to it. Never was since its annoucement) + a year delay, AND a $20 off for DIGITAL purchase with PS+.
Oh, and of course its launch was a train wreck of epic proportions where online play is concerned.

Otoh in September: Forza Horizon 2 is part of an established franchise, nothing but praise (aside from the noted sillyness of racing super cars in corn fields) all along, no delay whatsoever, great reviews, smooth launch (I think?).

Does not chart.
Not even in the top 20 apparently.

And you are surprised at no Driveclub in the top 10 NPD??

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Just realised this : November NPD thread is gonna go nuts without the numbers

Here's your top 10

1. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)

2. Grand Theft Auto 5 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)

3. Super Smash Bros for Wii U (Wii U)

4. Halo: The Master Chief Collection (Xbox One)

5. Assassin's Creed: Unity (PS4, Xbox One, PC)

6. Pokémon Alpha Sapphire/Omega Ruby (3DS)

6. Far Cry 4 (PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One, PS3, PC)

7. Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS4, Xbox One, PC)

8. NBA 2K 15 (PS4, 360, Xbox One, PS3

9. MineCraft (Xbox One, Xbox 360, PS4, PS3)

10. Destiny (Xbox 360, Xbox One, PS4, PS3)

I'm wagering that Smash Bros. selling about 60% of the Wii U opening month will still be enough to put it over the Halo remakes. I also forget if NPD counts Pokémon as a single SKU. If not, it probably won't chart. I think GTA is actually going to hurt both Assassin's Creed and Far Cry, too much open world overlap.

Edit: Bah, forgot AC: Rogue. It will certainly beat out Destiny for the last spot.

 

[Nirolak]

So it's no trade secret after all? I see.

I'm confused:

The precise language by which a trade secret is defined varies by jurisdiction (as do the particular types of information that are subject to trade secret protection). However, there are three factors that, although subject to differing interpretations, are common to all such definitions: a trade secret is information that:

Is not generally known to the public;
Confers some sort of economic benefit on its holder (where this benefit must derive specifically from its not being publicly known, not just from the value of the information itself);
Is the subject of reasonable efforts to maintain its secrecy.

If not sharing the data helps get you money from publishers paying you for in store advertising (since they don't want the retail sales information affecting their stock price), then it fits the definition, since that money is a conferred economic benefit.

 

[Opt1kon_]

I am at work so I cant shop this, can someone do this for me?

Got damn, KO'd them both

 

[John Harker]

These threads every month now start to look the same. Perhaps there should be a separate thread for "npd/industry trade secrets" discussion and keep these more tuned to the actual sales numbers provided?

There's plenty to discuss as it is, mostly now people are just discussing the discussion haha.

At least if it stayed on topic and there were engaging conversation i'd probably take more of an interest in participating.

All the negativity and hounding and usage of words like "leaks" constantly doesn't really make this thread that inviting, personally

 

[The Artisan]

...we're getting closerrr

closer to wat?

 

[Kill3r7]

So it's no trade secret after all and they are not obligated to not disclose it? I see.

I think you are missing the point. A retailer can sell such info because there is a demand for it and they do so under an NDA and such information is often marked as CONFIDENTIAL. Now, if a retailer then chooses to discloses this data to the general public they lose all protection under trade secret law because the information is no longer confidential and they have breached their duty to keep it so.

Trade Secret: "Trade secrets exist in almost every business. Under the traditional, common-law definition, they consisted of virtually any information beneficial to the business, developed by the company through the expenditure of time and effort, unknown to others in competing businesses, and which gave an advantage to the company over such competition." http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...dline=Trade+Secrets+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

P.S. I freely admit that I should have used confidential instead of proprietary as copyright law plays no part in this. I'll go reprimand myself in the corner of my office now for being a bad attorney.

 

[EGM1966]

I still need to comprehend why NPD hides gaming industry numbers so much, while other industries aren't so secretive. I don't know, I see this as a sign of "immaturity" of the whole industry, and I feel sorry to say that. This also helps VGsomethingsomethingz (you know what I'm talking about) to be even considered as "remotely reliable" by people who don't follow gaming news that much and that would just like to know how things are going. We've had recent articles from non-gaming outlets that used false VG...Z numbers, it keeps happening. IMHO; this damages NPD's image too: how can an entity being considered important and relevant about something from non-subscribers if it doesn't even share the necessary informations about what's going on in the tracked industry? Why is there such a need for secretiveness? I'm not even saying that they should tell us everything, just...the minimal requirements would be good already: hardware sales, top 10 sales, maybe individual, but even combined SKUs. This is the minimum, and yet we're completely oblivious about the minimum.

It's actually pretty simple.

Sales data for retail goods - including games - has a resell value hence there are companies like NPD engaged in the acquisition and sale of that data.

Sales date for media such as films has no resell value hence its openly available.

It's down to the specifics of their respective markets but that's the simple answer.

 

[Conduit]

Well Driveclub is broken so it's no surprise people aren't buying it. And that's a good thing.

Beta test was great and without any online glitches. Nobody expected that online at launch will be broken.

People still buy Driveclub. You forgot digital sales.

 

[ninjablade]

I know this can sound ridiculous when looking at the forum, but most people would rather just buy annual sports titles, an entry in something they know they like (Borderlands, Smash), or keep playing what they already have (and maybe get some new DLC for it).

It's very hard to sell a new IP or a niche concept to people. How many people are going to go out and spend $60 on something they don't know they will like, or think they won't get a lot of value out of?

With Destiny or The Evil Within you could at least look at what the developer used to do (and they sold so much with games like Halo and Resident Evil that chances are you have played their games before, with marketing that made sure to point out what they made prior) and have some assurances of what you were getting into. Destiny even had a public beta to help cinch the deal.

I think Mordor looking like a mix of Batman and Assassin's Creed was a big help to it. People could see a brand they liked and gameplay they recognized and go "Yeah, maybe I'll get this, and these types of games usually have a ton of content to boot." I don't think the other games had this kind of appeal.

ss overdrive and bayonetta 2 don't surprise me, they just don't have the cool factor to get gamers interested. now driveclub and alien isolation are a big surprise, but when you think about it, racers aren't selling too great lately in the US, and the last alien game must have left a bad taste in consumers mouth.

 

[Rymuth]

What happened with the USA and where is NBA Live 15? ;-)

The U.S. is embracing the TRUE football.

 

[Pennywise83]

It's actually pretty simple.

Sales data for retail goods - including games - has a resell value hence there are companies like NPD engaged in the acquisition and sale of that data.

Sales date for media such as films has no resell value hence its openly available.

It's down to the specifics of their respective markets but that's the simple answer.

Can you expand on that? The topic is really interesting thanks.

 

[theprodigy]

I know this can sound ridiculous when looking at the forum, but most people would rather just buy annual sports titles, an entry in something they know they like (Borderlands, Smash), or keep playing what they already have (and maybe get some new DLC for it).

It's very hard to sell a new IP or a niche concept to people. How many people are going to go out and spend $60 on something they don't know they will like, or think they won't get a lot of value out of?

With Destiny or The Evil Within you could at least look at what the developer used to do (and they sold so much with games like Halo and Resident Evil that chances are you have played their games before, with marketing that made sure to point out what they made prior) and have some assurances of what you were getting into. Destiny even had a public beta to help cinch the deal.

I think Mordor looking like a mix of Batman and Assassin's Creed was a big help to it. People could see a brand they liked and gameplay they recognized and go "Yeah, maybe I'll get this, and these types of games usually have a ton of content to boot." I don't think the other games had this kind of appeal.

This should be quoted every time someone says "PS4/XB1 have no games"/"what are people buying them for".