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NPD Sales Results for October 2014 [Up3: All of Nintendo's 3DS million sellers]

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
These threads every month now start to look the same. Perhaps there should be a separate thread for "npd/industry trade secrets" discussion and keep these more tuned to the actual sales numbers provided?

There's plenty to discuss as it is, mostly now people are just discussing the discussion haha.

At least if it stayed on topic and there were engaging conversation i'd probably take more of an interest in participating.

All the negativity and hounding and usage of words like "leaks" constantly doesn't really make this thread that inviting, personally

I mean we have approximations for Bayonetta 2, Sunset Overdrive, DriveClub, Aliens and The Evil WIthin.

Tangible numbers from Nintendo for 3DS SW sales and Super Smash Bros

Wii U HW sales.

Sony confirming they have won NPD month.

We have the gist of it provided by you, Nintendo, Sony and Queso - I'm thankful :)
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
ss overdrive and bayonetta 2 don't surprise me, they just don't have the cool factor to get gamers interested. now driveclub and alien isolation are a big surprise, but when you think about it, racers aren't selling too great lately in the US, and the last alien game must have left a bad taste in consumers mouth.

Well, in Alien's case, it's also a game where we're talking about a $60 version of Amnesia.

I realize it's not exactly the same, but conceptually it's not exactly what people are running out to buy at full price.
 

BadWolf

Member
ss overdrive and bayonetta 2 don't surprise me, they just don't have the cool factor to get gamers interested. now driveclub and alien isolation are a big surprise, but when you think about it, racers aren't selling too great lately in the US, and the last alien game must have left a bad taste in consumers mouth.

Driveclub is hardly a surprise with how broken it is/was.

Bad sales in such a situation are a good thing imo, a message needs to be sent to devs that they can't release broken games.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
At this point, the only way we're going to get NPD data like we've gotten in the past (and as fast) is if someone is able to "hack" into NPD and get the data to share that way (i.e. they have no subscriber to blame it on), because I don't see any subscriber releasing the info here with how public it is and how much they've been cracking down on it.

I'd delete that, I do not think suggesting to a group of hungry people to hack into a private company and steal their data is something you want to be seen saying.
 

Syrus

Banned
Do we have a general.number for Sunset Overdrive? 200k would be decent and hopefully have holiday legs. Bundles and digital aren't accounted for either
 

Handy Fake

Member
I'd delete that, I do not think suggesting to a group of hungry people to hack into a private company and steal their data is something you want to be seen saying.

avgKZ.gif


It's not the '80s, nobody says "hack" anymore.
 

Chobel

Member
I mean we have approximations for Bayonetta 2, Sunset Overdrive, DriveClub, Aliens and The Evil WIthin.

Tangible numbers from Nintendo for 3DS SW sales and Super Smash Bros

Wii U HW sales.

Sony confirming they have won NPD month.

We have the gist of it provided by you, Nintendo, Sony and Queso - I'm thankful :)

We do?
 

Occam

Member
The number of consoles a retailer buys from a console manufacturer and sells to consumers is not information that cannot be legally disclosed by the retailer.
I am not aware of any contracts existing between console manufacturers and retailers that would prevent retailers from disclosing such information; in fact I am quite certain they do not exist. Please feel free to prove they do.
 
I'd delete that, I do not think suggesting to a group of hungry people to hack into a private company and steal their data is something you want to be seen saying.

I think a better solution would be to fly drones around the NPD office. Once we have sights on data we can just enhance the resolution and clean up the image to get full HW/SW numbers. Our image algorithm can uniquely identify and track an ant from space.
 

Petrae

Member
At this point, the only way we're going to get NPD data like we've gotten in the past (and as fast) is if someone is able to "hack" into NPD and get the data to share that way (i.e. they have no subscriber to blame it on), because I don't see any subscriber releasing the info here with how public it is and how much they've been cracking down on it.

Advocating outright theft of paid subscriber data might not be the best of ideas.

So we will never have consoles sales?
I'm just asking not complaining

We'll only get them if console manufacturers elect to disclose them.
 

quetz67

Banned
Driveclub is hardly a surprise with how broken it is/was.

Bad sales in such a situation are a good thing imo, a message needs to be sent to devs that they can't release broken games.

It was never high in the preorder charts. Why buy retail for $70/60€ when you can get it digitally for $50/40€.
 
I'd delete that, I do not think suggesting to a group of hungry people to hack into a private company and steal their data is something you want to be seen saying.

Advocating outright theft of paid subscriber data might not be the best of ideas.



We'll only get them if console manufacturers elect to disclose them.

I don't think that was a suggestion. It was just pointing out the futility of expecting data (at least in the form the forum has been used to) from hereon in.

How on earth would you even go about "hacking" NPD. Its a ridiculous suggestion at face value.
 

IvorB

Member
yup, hopefully Halo and Unity suffer the same fate so devs take a hint about sorting their product out before they release it.

That's right. I can only hope the market shows its disapproval for these pubs releasing broken, unfinished games so that the practice can be stamped out.
 
Well, in Alien's case, it's also a game where we're talking about a $60 version of Amnesia.

I realize it's not exactly the same, but conceptually it's not exactly what people are running out to buy at full price.

I ways thought it survival horror Fps, it's make more sense now why the game bombed, along with the other reason I mentioned.


Driveclub is hardly a surprise with how broken it is/was.

Bad sales in such a situation are a good thing imo, a message needs to be sent to devs that they can't release broken games.

yea i agree with you, but being the first looking next gen racer on ps4, I thought it would do much better, I think the bad reviews really hurt it as as well.
 
I'd delete that, I do not think suggesting to a group of hungry people to hack into a private company and steal their data is something you want to be seen saying.

While I don't really see it as a real possibility (I'd think that if someone really wanted to do it, they could/would have done it by now), I'll go ahead and edit the post.
 

FDC1

Member
Driveclub is hardly a surprise with how broken it is/was.

Bad sales in such a situation are a good thing imo, a message needs to be sent to devs that they can't release broken games.

Once again, Driveclub had no chance to chart even without the online mess.
 
I know this can sound ridiculous when looking at the forum, but most people would rather just buy annual sports titles, an entry in something they know they like (Borderlands, Smash), or keep playing what they already have (and maybe get some new DLC for it).

It's very hard to sell a new IP or a niche concept to people. How many people are going to go out and spend $60 on something they don't know they will like, or think they won't get a lot of value out of?

With Destiny or The Evil Within you could at least look at what the developer used to do (and they sold so much with games like Halo and Resident Evil that chances are you have played their games before, with marketing that made sure to point out what they made prior) and have some assurances of what you were getting into. Destiny even had a public beta to help cinch the deal.

I think Mordor looking like a mix of Batman and Assassin's Creed was a big help to it. People could see a brand they liked and gameplay they recognized and go "Yeah, maybe I'll get this, and these types of games usually have a ton of content to boot." I don't think the other games had this kind of appeal.

Good point. I think there's room for the lower performing games to benefit from a longer tail as gamer word of mouth promotes them in the coming year. That's the "old school" type of marketing that can drive retail game sales without costing the publishers AAA money. We shouldn't paint good games as "failures" when they don't break the box office on opening, give them room to grow in the community. We'll probably be seeing a bunch of LTTP threads in the coming months on them.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Good point. I think there's room for the lower performing games to benefit from a longer tail as gamer word of mouth promotes them in the coming year. That's the "old school" type of marketing that can drive retail game sales without costing the publishers AAA money. We shouldn't paint good games as "failures" when they don't break the box office on opening, give them room to grow in the community. We'll probably be seeing a bunch of LTTP threads in the coming months on them.

The issue a lot of them face is that they cost so much to make that they're unlikely to make their budget back at lower price points.

Some publishers do put out niche games thinking they're unlikely to make money in hopes of a better performing sequel, but as the bar has continued to raise on what is actually making money, we've continued to see these types of games disappear.

Or, put another way, sometimes going from a 500K upfront and a 1.5 million LTD to a 1.5 million up-front and a 2 million LTD still isn't enough.
 
These threads every month now start to look the same. Perhaps there should be a separate thread for "npd/industry trade secrets" discussion and keep these more tuned to the actual sales numbers provided?

There's plenty to discuss as it is, mostly now people are just discussing the discussion haha.

At least if it stayed on topic and there were engaging conversation i'd probably take more of an interest in participating.

All the negativity and hounding and usage of words like "leaks" constantly doesn't really make this thread that inviting, personally

I feel like the majority of people who show up in NPD threads in the first 24 hours just harass whoever they can for #s so they have more bullets for their console war. I've seen countless drive by posts that just say "numbers? wheres aqua/cream" without adding any value to the discussion. Usually these people leave after the first few days, so hopefully we will get numbers a few days late after they all are gone.
 
Good point. I think there's room for the lower performing games to benefit from a longer tail as gamer word of mouth promotes them in the coming year. That's the "old school" type of marketing that can drive retail game sales without costing the publishers AAA money. We shouldn't paint good games as "failures" when they don't break the box office on opening, give them room to grow in the community. We'll probably be seeing a bunch of LTTP threads in the coming months on them.

Game sales are often so front-loaded than frankly, it'd be awkward for any publisher to put significant amounts of 'stock' into hoping a game has legs to recoup its profit, because most games don't.

And let's assume for the games that do have legs for growth. How do you achieve it?

The easy way to drive short-term growth is to drop to bargain bin prices, yet gaining sales through that measure doesn't guarantee the sequel will sell that amount you sold, if so many consumers are only willing to pay so much to buy that game.

And if you drop it marginally slowly, hoping for slow growth pace-by-pace, you risk your game not being 'worth it' 1 year down the line, when there's newer games at cheaper prices because you chose to be stingy about your price drops.

Minecraft/GTAV/CoD/FIFA legs are an anomaly in this industry. Even stuff like TLoU, where it manages to hit 8 million in a year, while maintaining a relatively decent price isn't common.
 

Seik

Banned
Good job, Goldmund. Hope you're happy.

I still can't wrap my head around why people shat on Aqua, except for being lazy fucks.

Sorry guys for bringing this up again, but whining over a free service will always turn out bad...holy shit. At the very, very least they apologized...

Hope you're fine, Aqua. :(
 
The issue a lot of them face is that they cost so much to make that they're unlikely to make their budget back at lower price points.

Some publishers do put out niche games thinking they're unlikely to make money in hopes of a better performing sequel, but as the bar has continued to raise on what is actually making money, we've continued to see these types of games disappear.

Or, put another way, sometimes going from a 500K upfront and a 1.5 million LTD to a 1.5 million up-front and a 2 million LTD still isn't enough.

Game sales are often so front-loaded than frankly, it'd be awkward for any publisher to put significant amounts of 'stock' into hoping a game has legs to recoup its profit, because most games don't.

And let's assume for the games that do have legs for growth. How do you achieve it?

The easy way to drive short-term growth is to drop to bargain bin prices, yet gaining sales through that measure doesn't guarantee the sequel will sell that amount you sold, if so many consumers are only willing to pay so much to buy that game.

And if you drop it marginally slowly, hoping for slow growth pace-by-pace, you risk your game not being 'worth it' 1 year down the line, when there's newer games at cheaper prices because you chose to be stingy about your price drops.

Minecraft/GTAV/CoD/FIFA legs are an anomaly in this industry. Even stuff like TLoU, where it manages to hit 8 million in a year, while maintaining a relatively decent price isn't common.
Is the only hope for production value expectations to be deflated at the AAA+ level to allow "middle class" games room to compete on budget? If things like Unity and Battlefield 4 keep setting precedents of being AAA technical dumpster fires, could there be room for "middle class" games to gain a foothold again?
 

Kill3r7

Member
Unless they're using a different maths, this confirms:

Current PS+ subscriber count : 7.9 million
270% increase in sub count since PS4 launch.

That means before the PS4 launched, the PS+ sub count (Vita + PS3) was only 2.1 million.

I'm getting ~2.9 million but my math might be off.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Is the only hope for production value expectations to be deflated at the AAA+ level to allow "middle class" games room to compete on budget? If things like Unity and Battlefield 4 keep setting precedents of being AAA technical dumpster fires, could there be room for "middle class" games to gain a foothold again?

The closest thing we've seen to the mid-tier returning I'd say would be the increasing high end on digital download titles.

Games like Amnesia, Torchlight, The Walking Dead, or Ethan Carter are things you wouldn't have expected when we were looking at the early days of XBLA or to an extent even Steam.

Similarly, for more multiplayer focused titles, f2p has supported a lot of games that wouldn't do well as $60 boxed products.

Basically, when the standard for what a $60 game gets you is Grand Theft Auto V, it's very hard to compete using the same business model and pricepoint unless you're a gigantic game. There are other business models that are possible though, mostly in digital.
 
I'm getting ~2.9 million but my math might be off.

270% increase doesn't mean 2.7 times bigger. It means the change in quantity was 2.7 times the original amount. Like, if you have a 100 dollar investment that sees a 5% return, you now have 105 dollars. So, the 270% increase would put us at 3.7 times the original amount. 7.9 / 3.7= 2.1

didn't check the info graphic myself, but if the other poster's judgment of their math is what they intended, that's how it should be.
 

prag16

Banned
What?



From what I gathered, from the twitter account, was 3 month ban request, changed her mind, came back, said some things, got a 1 month ban, should end on the 18:th.
The whole reason she left is because of controversy over leaks and leak dissemination. And you expect her to pop back up and immediately provide a cornucopia of hard numbers?
 

Kill3r7

Member
270% increase doesn't mean 2.7 times bigger. It means the change in quantity was 2.7 times the original amount. Like, if you have a 100 dollar investment that sees a 5% return, you now have 105 dollars. So, the 270% increase would put us at 3.7 times the original amount. 7.9 / 3.7= 2.1

didn't check the info graphic myself, but if the other poster's judgment of their math is what they intended, that's how it should be.

Duh. Good catch.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
While we lack PS4 and Xbox One numbers, there is something we know.
It's this

Notes:
-“October 2014 marks the first 12 months of sales for the Xbox One and PS4,” said Callahan. “After the first year, these consoles have had a great start as cumulative sales are currently over 70 percent higher than the combined first year totals of Xbox 360 and PS3.”

Way back in this thread, shinra-bansho made some estimates based on this

Depending on how conservative that "over 75% is" PS4+XB1 could be something like 325K (70.5% up gen/gen, also yikes) or something like 450K (73% up).

I think the limit would be like 74%, since PR-speak would probably turn that into "almost 75%."

That "over 75%" is a typo; he probably meant "over 70%".

This is our range. For comparison, PS4 + Xbox One sold 822,000 in September, when combined.
Remember, though, that September saw some important initiatives (PS4 + Destiny, free game with Xbox One, Destiny itself). Plus, it was a 5-weeks-month (while October is a 4-weeks-month).
 

Sothpaw

Member
Not sure if Insomniac is going to be able to rebound from this. They really pushed SO as their magnum opus but it just didn't strike a chord with the general audience. Not surprised really. It was hyped to all hell around here but I never saw anything special.
 
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