So, what are the conclusions that everyone can agree on?
Both X1 and PS4 sold below expectations, and Sony should be especially disappointed that the price drop wasn't enough to sell more hardware than Microsoft? Despite getting pretty close?
I think there are 5 reasonable conclusions:
1)
Halo is no longer a titan. It's an important exclusive and the IP definitely has value. With that said, the days of Halo being in the same conversation as GTA are over. We expected Halo to decline (just like COD and AC), but debuting to less than a million in a market which it used to debut to 3.3 million+ is a disaster. The software sales were terrible, and Halo 5's inability to move a significant amount of hardware is quite possibly the worst thing that could have happened to the Xbox business. In my opinion, Halo 5's performance is this generation's biggest failure. That might sound like hyperbole, but unless Microsoft have Minecraft 2 and Minecraft 3 in the pipeline for the X1, they literally have no hardware seller for the remainder of the generation. Gears 4 will do its numbers, but given the performance of Halo 5 -- a franchise which has always outperformed Gears -- it's not looking too green for the Xbox camp.
2)
Assassins Creed is on its deathbed. We expected it to decline in sales, but seeing the reported numbers (390k), it's clear that the franchise doesn't have much juice left. The AC movie can rejuvenate the franchise, so if I were Ubisoft, I would do everything in my power to make sure that the movie turns out good. If the movie fails, then I honestly do not believe the Assassin's Creed franchise will make it past this generation.
3)
$50 price cut was insufficient in October. We predicted that the $50 reduction wouldn't lead to significant hardware sales, but we now know that a $50 reduction wasn't enough to win the month for Sony. Half-step price cuts rarely move the needle, because a lot of people who can afford a $349.99 device can more than likely also afford a $399.99 device. With that said, context is key. It sounds like an excuse to say "People might be waiting for the COD and Battlefront bundles", but you're lying to yourself if you think there aren't people who will hold out for the bundles. The $50 cut also allows for price parity during Black Friday, so while the reduction failed in October, it might succeed in November. If the $50 does not make a difference in November, then we can definitively say that cutting the PS4 price by $50 and not $100 was a terrible idea.
4)
Destiny is now the number one sci-fi shooter. The numbers for The Taken King show that the game is here to stay, and given the positive critical reception for TTK, it's safe to say that Destiny 2 is going to be massive. I don't know why Microsoft passed on Destiny (if I recall correctly they had a right of first refusal), but it was a big mistake. Hindsight is 20/20, but Microsoft should have banked on Destiny. The real winner is, of course, Activision. Given the decline of COD, they needed to come up with a big AAA console title to replace it. It's now looking like yes, Destiny will be that game.
5) November will be interesting.