Swass
Member
lol nice, people did say it was Microsoft's Uncharted.. they may not be wrong..
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
lol nice, people did say it was Microsoft's Uncharted.. they may not be wrong..
-MD-
Member
Obliterator
Member
Top 3 are Black Ops, Fallout 4, and Battlefront no question.
Black Ops will likely be number 1
and then it will be a fight between Fallout and Battlefront for 2 and 3. I could see it going either way but personally lean towards Fallout at number 2.
Anyone thinking those aren't the top 3 are crazy
Black Ops will likely be number 1
and then it will be a fight between Fallout and Battlefront for 2 and 3. I could see it going either way but personally lean towards Fallout at number 2.
Anyone thinking those aren't the top 3 are crazy
Japanmanx3
Member
Tomb Raider is the real Uncharted. It won't be on that chart next month. It'd be more likely for AssCreed to make it and that's definitely not gonna happen. Halo 5 may barely get its foot in the door...
And I also want to know about these "technical issues".
And I also want to know about these "technical issues".
Spin, again! I didn't do shit. Period! And also i didn't saw that PS4 users jumped in Halo bandwagon like you said before.
"Spin"? It didn't do anything?
So the Xbox One sold more than the PS4 in October because....?
I'm sure there were PS4 owners who bought the system last month to play Halo. That will more than likely continue during the Holiday season.
Just because the game didn't do as well as the previous Halos and didn't help console sales as much as we/I thought doesn't make what I said not true. Really not understanding how I'm (seemingly) on some of your "NPD hit lists". That post you've quoted was from many pages ago (lol).
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Would you suggest combining to two titles into one or something? Or just release less frequently, but have two separate releases?
Isn't the Wii -> Wii U transition similar enough to the PS2 -> PS3 transition as well though but to a greater extreme? The Wii U had more things wrong compared to the PS3 at launch, and Nintendo was not willing to lose too much money on it. I still think that if Nintendo threw in the effort they did even for the GC with the exact same 1st party games, the Wii U may have sold at least similarly to the GC (except maybe the Americas, it's not selling that much worse in JP with basically no effort apart from 1st party software).
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Sorry double post.
...new PS4 owners wait for PS4 Battlefront and COD deals until Black Friday starts. That's why 50$ price cut didn't helped during October.
Yes! And? I don't spend time constantly reading NPD threads. You said the same thing also before that quote ( page 80 and something ).
And Halo's launch helped alongside that fact (when it comes to the Xbox One taking October) since a good amount of Xbox Ones that were sold last month were Halo 5 bundles.
Okay? What I said was true though so I'm not sure as to why you are bringing up those posts again.
plasmawave
Banned
Welfare
Member
So going by your logic, a $50 price drop actually slowed down PS4 sales while the Xbox One did better MOM by just being Xbox.
Halo helped the Xbox One sell more units this month. Just because Halo 5 did worse than the other Halo launches does not change that.
Halo 5 didn't helped. Even if PS4 won in October with his first price drop and sold in 305k ( like Xbone ) i would say that 50$ price drop didn't helped in any way. That's a small numbers of sold consoles. So, i really can't see how Halo 5 helped to push Xbone with just only 305k and 29k more than PS4. Both consoles sold pretty bad in October. Period!
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Guys, guys. I've kept checking Amazon best sellers over the last several days. The PS4 SKUs are way ahead of the XB1's. Currently there are FOUR above the best-placed Xbone SKU.
So what I'm really saying is this: if there's anyone that believes Xbox is going to take November NPD, you're in for a shock. I'd wager the PS4 is going to make up the October gap in sales between it and XB1 at least 5X over. Unless something radically changes.
Those PS4 COD and Battlefront bundles are just selling great.
So what I'm really saying is this: if there's anyone that believes Xbox is going to take November NPD, you're in for a shock. I'd wager the PS4 is going to make up the October gap in sales between it and XB1 at least 5X over. Unless something radically changes.
Those PS4 COD and Battlefront bundles are just selling great.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Titles that sold over 600K (Dragon Age Inquisition) last November didn't even chart. Halo 5 has no shot barring an incredible hold in sales in November. Are people really expecting Halo to hold from 985K -> >600K? Only chance if that's mostly through hardware bundles, and it looks like halo 5 isn't the only bundle either (RoTR, etc.).
Yay for analysis on 6% of the gaming market clearly indicating exact trends of the whole US market. </sarcasm> Just like Best Buy basically doesn't sell Wii Us (like 2% of Wii Us are sold there?) despite being a significant seller of PS4s & XB1s percentage wise, Amazon may easily have its biases.
ninjablade
Banned
Dude no, just no, ps3 will end up at 90 plus million sold, still selling amazingly well for a console, it's main problem was pricing, and 360 doing everything better as a console, and being much cheaper. The wiiu is a whole different case, nobody cares.
sony may have priced the add-on cheaper, but the price of entry was more expensive. microsoft knew the audience they were going for probably didn't care that much about hardware space and skimped on it to launch the kinect as a bundle at the mass-market price of $299.99. sony priced the move bundle at $399.99, once again pricing themselves out of the market (although move had other issues as well).
i'm bring up touch screen controls because both touch screen controls and motion controls are seen as super accessible ways to play games. they became the two primary methods of inputting information into games on mobile devices, when buttons never caught on, or at least made them more complicated (i am referring to the weird controller add-ons that never seemed to do well).
i don't know what this means. the mobile segment taking the wii's marketshare was also the mobile segment taking the kinect's marketshare. like it's the same audience.
i don't know what this means either. i never said the mobile industry doing well was the reason for the success of these platforms. i don't know how that conclusion could be made.
this is all accurate. but i think it's also correct to say that while nintendo largely had this market, it also existed on the xbox 360 to a large degree, and even other platforms like the psp and ps3 (and especially ds). if you think that the kinect market rose and fell all on its own i don't know what to say. the kinect wasn't this force that appeared one day and disappeared in about a year. it was part of a larger trend within the dedicated market for games that were easier to understand for a userbase that wanted cheaper and accessible software.
and finally this is where i think your conclusion is wrong. nintendo did several things (almost everything) wrong with the wii u, and it also read the handheld market extremely wrong in 2011. nintendo's audience has shrunk a lot and more than other platform holders to be sure. but it doesn't exist in a vacuum. i refer to dedicated hardware for a reason - it's a market with a certain buying habit, where people usually go into stores to buy a machine that plays games specific to that machine. control schemes might change and the trend in what genres are popular might be fluid over time (notice how no one's really banging on the first-person shooter door like they were last gen). in this spectrum, the wii u and 3ds fail to live up to their predecessors, but so do the vita and i really suspect the xbox 1. in a generation when everything is down, when the trend in the dedicated market has always been growth, can we really pretend that things are fine because the ps4 will outsell its predecessor? it seems to me like a really low bar for success in this industry. it ignores the studio closures, the reshuffling of dedicated game space at retail (notice how tablets and phones are closer to the register than games nowadays at electronic sections), or the drop in the amount of games coming to retails or systems from major publishers in general.
i think these are important things to consider when looking at the future of the industry. and once more i say that video game consoles aren't dying and someone responds that 'video game consoles aren't dying' as though i disagreed with them on this notion.
problem was it was still like a 45% drop from its predecessor, making the ps2 irrelevant in discussions about sales.
down 2 orth
Member
thank knack
Get a life
By his logic PS4 has been killing it because XB1 wannabe owners are just lying in wait for the inevitable Halo 6, Forza8, Gears6 bundle
/s
Obliterator
Member
Whats funny is this may end up prophetic
True, it doesn't have one yet. Microsoft already are releasing a notable number of their Xbox games on the platform, given that I'm expecting there to be a clearer picture on how their other platforms are going to integrate into the Xbox ecosystem next year, whether that's a store revamp, expansion of the Xbox app or a membership service or whatever. I agree they don't have any of the groundwork there to support an ecosystem on platforms that aren't Xbox, but the fact that there are games coming that otherwise couldn't survive without that groundwork leads me to believe we'll get info on that next year.
Would be surprised if he wrong
Seriously?
I agree.
Ambition
Member
panda-zebra
Member
So the potential was there for ps4 to win handily without Halo 5 there to scrape the "win", in a steady, unspectacular month of console sales.
With the upcoming ps4 bundles, their pre-orders, the hype of Star Wars, BF price parity, next month will be... int
hebag
Kinda regretting clicking "view post" now after reading that inspired contribution.
boredandlazy
Member
Get a clue. We're in a sales thread.
Swass
Member
Juniors gonna Junior.
Opus Angelorum
Member
You're on the internet, on a gaming forum...and telling someone get a life.
Yeah, as good as the new Tomb Raider game is, I'll be surprised to see it chart given the circumstances/timing of its launch. I'm also expecting AC Syndicate to vanish from the charts(I have no opinion of the game as I'm still on Unity, but it looks like the bugs in that one really hurt the franchise).
As far as Xbox One vs PS4 for the month, that's a bit harder to predict. On the one hand, Microsoft does great around the holidays, PS4 has few AAA holiday exclusives, and we have Call of Duty(which typically does better on Xbox) and Halo 5 pushing consoles(though likely not to the same extent as previous holidays). On the other hand, PS4 has a new price drop and the Star Wars Battlefront advertising deal, as well as overall momentum. I'm expecting PS4 to edge out slightly due to the latter point, but it should be a healthy month for both consoles. And sadly, I'm not expecting much of anything on WiiU to chart(though I'd love another surprise Yoshi ranking-the game is great).
As far as Xbox One vs PS4 for the month, that's a bit harder to predict. On the one hand, Microsoft does great around the holidays, PS4 has few AAA holiday exclusives, and we have Call of Duty(which typically does better on Xbox) and Halo 5 pushing consoles(though likely not to the same extent as previous holidays). On the other hand, PS4 has a new price drop and the Star Wars Battlefront advertising deal, as well as overall momentum. I'm expecting PS4 to edge out slightly due to the latter point, but it should be a healthy month for both consoles. And sadly, I'm not expecting much of anything on WiiU to chart(though I'd love another surprise Yoshi ranking-the game is great).
The PC market (which is flooded with shooters) may not be as lucrative as it used to be for Halo. Personally, I can see Halo Wars doing better on PC than Halo 6/7.
Stilton Disco
Member
Gotta agree with you're viewpoint here, at least broadly. The dedicated market isn't dying, but it's definitely in a phase of contraction that's never happened before.
Saying that, I think 6th and 7th gen and their corresponding handhelds saw growth primarily in the overlap with the emergent 'casual' market as gaming went mainstream. That market is still growing, and the 'hardcore' dedicated enthusiast market is too, it's just that the advent of smartphones has allowed those two previously overlapping markets to seperate out.
This is why we're seeing both a large decline in the number of titles hitting retail and the shuttering of studios/publishers, but still also getting record breaking game sales and increased marketshare for niche titles. The enthusiast market will be bigger this gen than last, and the market will increasingly reflect that. Hell, that probably also contributes to the drop in sales for series like Halo, AssCreed and Band games, all of which had heavy mainstream appeal, with only COD and FIFA/Madden still holding enough sway to keep the old 'dudebro' market since they tended to only buy consoles for those games anyway (at least that's my theory on why those series aren't suffering such a sharp decline, anyway).
This is why Nintendo, Xbox and handhelds have been hit so hard, while Playstation is actually coming out stronger this gen.
Firstly, whether enthusiast or casual, Mobile just steals handhelds lunch. There's no market to save there beyond a very small niche primarily in Japan.
In the home console space however, Xbox and Nintendo both heavily courted the casual market last gen, stealing it away entirely from the PS2 which really created the market. That meant Sony had to concentrate on enthusiasts with the PS3 after it's soft rebranding with the slim model, and had such great success wooing back a market that was otherwise being neglected.
The WiiU and XO failed out of the gate this gen because MS and Nintendo didn't realise the casual Market was gone. PS4 is thriving and going from strength to strength on the back of a reinvigorated enthusiast market that Somy were the only one to cater for from the systems conception.
For further proof, look at the improvement of sales and revenue both Nintendo and Micrososft have seen by shifting gears to target the same market. Ditching Kinnect and going games games games has let MS dig their heels into their 2 strongest markets, and churning out fan favourites and collector targeted Amiibos has let Nintendo return to profitability despite having completely ruined their image with the rest of the enthusiast market with the Wii, something I hope to see them try to rebuild bridges for with the NX.
By generations end, I expect to see a solidified enthusiast market emerge that's a definite contraction from the overall numbers of last gen, but see a healthier, more robust user base going forward, and we will actually even see growth start anew in 9th gen.
As an aside, I've not mentioned PC in all this, simply because it's the one corner of the industry I'd say it's still impossible to distinguish the enthusiast and casual markets in. We know most PC gamers are casuals, playing stuff like DOTA, Minecraft, and Five Nights at Freddie's on non gaming PC's, but there's no way of distinguishing that from the super hardcore dedicated gaming rig owners, beyond vague guesses based on steam and what rare stats studios and publishers give.
Which is why PC is the only traditional market that looks to be suffering no negative effects right now.
But yeah, TL;DR:
Consoles aren't dying, they're just suffering the contractions of birthing the Mobile market they've incubated since the PS2, and will come out stronger as time goes on without having to sustain 2 seperate entities.
The dedicated handheld market is fucked though. It's basically placenta in this analogy.
Halo 5 did certainly have " some" impact, but I remember our discussions where you were arguing till you were blue in the face that Halo month would see a huge influx of players buying consoles while I was arguing that it was very likely that a Ton of fans already had an XB1.
Now it's actually hard to compare with last October given the circumstances.
MS artificially decreased their own sales a year ago by anouncing a then very attractive bundle coming in November (ACU) on October 15 2014 -and- then anounced the $50 price drop also for November during the last week of October.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Going by amazon people have been right but twice .
Even this month some people were saying it was going to be close .
So it's not all that stupid as it seem once you look at the data we have along with some other retail info we get from people .
Ashes2Bashers
Member
What ? Why would you do that , this is beyond me..
Xan Kriegor
Banned
So why are potential PS4 buyers the only ones to wait for BF? Factor that in for Xbone aswel.
Stilton Disco
Member
It'll help, sure, but like COD, there's no official bundle or marketing tie in, so the sales momentum will be far more in PS4's favour.
Battlefield in particular could be mistaken for a PS4 exclussive if you're not keeping abreast of things, as most customers won't be.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Have we got info on DQH, ToZ and D5?
ShogunDarius
Member
I dont think he returned since Detective GAF went too far
panda-zebra
Member
Maybe because that's one of the few data points people have simple and easy access to, which you'd realise if you took part in the prediction/results topics more than just this month and April (http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=164072557&postcount=1986 - interesting you chose these specific months to engage, btw...).
I'm not saying the data there is at all useful, especially on an hourly or daily basis, but when you have little else to go on besides snippets from retail insiders, people make do and draw their conclusions.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Says the dude on a gaming forum.
I know we're talking about Halo 5 being down compared to Halo 4 and the PS4 price cut doing nothing but this I feel is the biggest story.
I franchise down about 87% in three years is disastrous. Ubisoft need a clear rethink of their entire approach with the franchise, it at the very least needs a good break.
Don't use Amazon to base your predictions on future months, it only represents a small percentage of the market and that percentage isn't representative of the rest.
The Battlefront and Black Ops 3 bundles will be massive sellers though, next month will be very interesting.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I'm still waiting for Microsoft to get desperate and make some crazy last minute promotions. Seems unlikely though.
FranXico
Member
Considering how they priced their Halo bundle, Microsoft are very relaxed at the moment.