If TR flops horribly it's going to be REALLY hard for MS to convince publishers to do similar deals in the future. That's a problem for MS when their first party studios are so much smaller in scale (in terms of number of games they can put out per year) compared to those of Sony and Nintendo
Phil Spencer already said they are moving away from these type of deals as stated above. What they will do more of is like with Creative Assembly, Remedy, Comcept/Armature, etc. and get developers to make 1st party (ip's owned by MS) games for them.