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[Slangblade]

So this is my take. I think both consoles have underwhelming numbers, but Microsoft has the biggest problem here. Their flagship franchise, the franchise that made them a force to be reckon with in the video game industry did poorly.

I think people are waiting for black Friday to pick up their console. Last year, Microsoft had crazy deals and bundles. I think people know this. They are waiting until black friday to get a console and that goes for both Microsoft and Sony. Both companies will have healthy sales for the month of November.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

It's not that exclusive are totally irrelevant yet, but it is clear that at this point none of first party exclusive are as relevant as third party multiplat juggernauts anymore.

Spoiler

nintendo

 

[GeoramA]

I really don't get how Sony has managed to leave 2 Holidays on the table without a major exclusive. I feel like post launch, they have made nothing but poor management decisions, but they did so well prelaunch they are just riding that. It seems like they may have rested on their laurels a bit too long.

Oh jesus. What's with this obsession that exclusives should only be released during this time of year?

 

[benny_a]

So this is my take. I think both consoles have underwhelming numbers, but Microsoft has the biggest problem here. Their flagship franchise, the franchise that made them a force to be reckon with in the video game industry did poorly.

It didn't do poorly. It did disappointing numbers.

But poorly is a different tier, which that Halo 5 is not in.

 

[Loris146]

Spoiler

nintendo

Not as games like Cod , Fallout , TES , GTA and others...

 

[crinale]

Spoiler

nintendo

I think Nintendo isn't out of this trend. However they still have lots of relatively stronger IP compared to other first parties.

 

[Jigorath]

Spoiler

nintendo

The one with the worst performing console on the market?

 

[Elios83]

I really don't get how Sony has managed to leave 2 Holidays on the table without a major exclusive. I feel like post launch, they have made nothing but poor management decisions, but they did so well prelaunch they are just riding that. It seems like they may have rested on their laurels a bit too long.

You should consider how Sony supported PS3 heavily until 2013 with The Last of Us, God of War Ascension, Beyond and Gran Turismo 6.
They also had a few studios like Bend, Cambridge and Japan Studio working on Vita games.
This has delayed the PS4 development pipeline inevitably.
But the lineup that Sony was planning for 2015 was actually pretty good. They had The Order, Bloodborne, MLB The Show, Until Dawn, Tearaway, Uncharted Collection, Uncharted 4 and Ratchet&Clank + many indies.
They got hit by delays in Q4 and that created an empty space at the end of the year for first party releases.
But if we're looking at how huge multiplatform titles are dominating the scene in Q4, it is probably better to space out things in this way. For example a game like R&C would have been sent to die if released right now following the original plan.

Also I don't think that Microsoft is doing much better.
They had a totally empty first half. Then they released a remaster, the annual Forza sequel, Halo 5 as their big gun and Tomb Raider (which was money hatted, not developed by them).
I really don't see the gap in terms of quality and quantity.

 

[ZSaberLink]

But the actual data points are disappointing for everyone. Well, everyone except maybe Yoshi.

Hi. I'm not as good at forecasting hardware as most (or all) in the predictions thread. I focus much more on software, and since both boxes are market viable, I generally think much more about software splits between the platforms for the next few years.

Thanks for the responses!

With the Nintendo Direct, I was more wondering how you'll think a game like Twilight Princess HD, localized RPGs (Mario & luigi, DQ7&8, Bravely Second) might sell, etc.

So, Yoshi was only maybe disappointing? Doing some math first....

Some math for folks...

So Destiny TTK w/ bundles ~ 200K
Uncharted Collection w/ bundles = 300K
PS4 sold 275K

That means Destiny + Uncharted without bundles > 225K (if all bundles were one of these 2, then 225K is the least that combo could be unbundled). However, there is the Batman bundle if I'm not mistaken, and likely others (old TLOU remastered bundle?) that I'm likely unaware of.

Destiny + Uncharted > 225K...

and

At least 100K more Uncharted PS4s were sold over Destiny PS4s in order for that to happen. Thus at least 100K Uncharted PS4s had to have been sold total.

-----------------
Now making assumptions....
Assumption 1: 90% of PS4 bundles were either from Uncharted or Destiny TTK bundles (~248K)
Assumption 2: Gap of about 20K between the two titles without bundling
With assumptions - I'd get sales of like 116K for Uncharted and 136K for Destiny.

Yoshi would be in between that, which is about the same as DKC: TF's first month, which seems pretty decent all things things considered (Wii U's plethora of platformers, etc.) and is over twice Kirby's debut earlier this year. I wouldn't really call that disappointing, but obviously this is making assumptions on estimates already. Am I totally off here in my factual math/assumptions?

 

[Yurikerr]

Spoiler

nintendo

Which Nintendo game was the top selling last gengen, aside from Wii sports (bundled)? Mario kart?

 

[Raist]

Which Nintendo game was the top selling last gengen, aside from Wii sports (bundled)? Mario kart?

That or Wii Sports Resort, can't remember.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Great debate in here regarding predictions for November NPD.

Amazon Top Sellers is always a good indicator though. Right now, PS4 has 3 different SKUs in the top 20. The highest XB1 SKU is in 27th place.

 

[Slangblade]

It didn't do poorly. It did disappointing numbers.

But poorly is a different tier, which that Halo 5 is not in.

If we are talking about moving consoles it did poorly. Look at what Destiny did for PS4 last September. I think it pretty safe to say when Uncharted 4 comes out in March Sony will sell more consoles than what Microsoft and Halo did in October.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Spoiler

nintendo

Indeed Wii U is not irrelevant because the exclusives doesn't count, but if you don't have any multiplatform... you know... also, there many, many, MANY thing which expain the Wii U fail.

If NX will have a good third party support and Nintendo will not made a mess like with Wii U, it will definitively sell fine.

That or Wii Sports Resort, can't remember.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/software/wii.html

 

[benny_a]

If we are talking about moving consoles it did poorly. Look at what Destiny did for PS4 last September. I think it pretty safe to say when Uncharted 4 comes out in March Sony will sell more consoles than what Microsoft and Halo did in October.

Okay if you're saying Halo 5 in Oct '15 was a poor pusher for Xbone adoption in Oct '15 that's more reasonable.

I'm also of the belief that the Halo audience was already bought in before the game release and didn't wait until game launch to pick a console up.
As an example of a game that did this successful I would say Titanfall where you saw a bump due to the beta (February) and then launch (March).

 

[Elios83]

Great debate in here regarding predictions for November NPD.

Amazon Top Sellers is always a good indicator though. Right now, PS4 has 3 different SKUs in the top 20. The highest XB1 SKU is in 27th place.

PS4 is definetly much better positioned than X1 for November. I don't think they will outsell them by the same margin that X1 outsold PS4 last year, but a 200k gap is likely.
In December it will be interesting to see how the Star Wars movie will impact the sales of the videogame. If the movie is well received by critics and not an other bomba like the last Indiana Jones movie and a hype storm around Star Wars is created, I can see Sony having shortages problems with their Star Wars bundles

 

[Bgamer90]

If we are talking about moving consoles it did poorly. Look at what Destiny did for PS4 last September. I think it pretty safe to say when Uncharted 4 comes out in March Sony will sell more consoles than what Microsoft and Halo did in October.

Too soon to say in my opinion. A decent number of people who are looking forward to Uncharted 4 will already have the system -- especially considering its releasing not that far away from the Holiday season (a few months). Sales will (or at least should) be definitely higher than February though.

 

[Sydle]

If we are talking about moving consoles it did poorly. Look at what Destiny did for PS4 last September. I think it pretty safe to say when Uncharted 4 comes out in March Sony will sell more consoles than what Microsoft and Halo did in October.

I don't know, if you look back at Halo 3 they moved just over 500,000 360's that month. But I think it's fair to consider it was the same year of Bioshock, Mass Effect, and Assassin's Creed, plus Sony completely fucked up the PS3, so there was a lot more going for the 360 during the first Halo release than there is for One with Halo 5. MS is working against having to build back trust for the platform and the Halo franchise, plus Sony playing all the right cards.

When it's all put I context it makes a lot more sense. Consider how Xbox One would have sold last month without Halo.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Which Nintendo game was the top selling last gengen, aside from Wii sports (bundled)? Mario kart?

Smash came up on top the month it was released.

And for everyone quoting me, I interpreted the post I quoted as being about what effect first-party exclusives have on console sales. These days, low for Sony and MS, but still crucial for Nintendo.

 

[Slangblade]

Okay if you're saying Halo 5 in Oct '15 was a poor pusher for Xbone adoption in Oct '15 that's more reasonable.

That is exactly what I am saying.

Isn't Halo on the very short list of exclusive games that are supposed to sell consoles?

I think people are waiting for Black Friday. We will see.

 

[Memento]

Do we have data for the biggest launch numbers for Uncharted in NPD? I suppose it is Uncharted 3 right?

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Anyone willing to take me up on an avatar bet for Tomb Raider? I think it won't chart..

no one?

bloody cowards

 

[Memento]

no one?

bloody cowards

Does it have any bundles? If there is, it is definitely not charting...

 

[Loris146]

Do we have data for the biggest launch numbers for Uncharted in NPD? I suppose it is Uncharted 3 right?

Yep , around 700k IIRC.

 

[stryke]

Does it have any bundles? If there is, it is definetely not charting...

exclusive to best buy and ms stores.

 

[Memento]

Yep , around 700k IIRC.

Nice, thanks.

Uncharted 4 will definitely top that.

 

[Crimson_Gold]

Does it have any bundles? If there is, it is definetely not charting...

I think they're only at best buy

 

[kyser73]

Spoiler

nintendo

Arguably that's about lack of 3rd party options. Especially on the U

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Question for discussion:

Which will have the better NPD launch month: Uncharted 4 or Halo 5?

Worldwide, there is no contest lol

 

[Memento]

Question for discussion:

Which will have the better NPD launch month: Uncharted 4 or Halo 5?

Worldwide, there is no contest lol

Do we have the numbers for Halo 5 already?

 

[Welfare]

Question for discussion:

Which will have the better NPD launch month: Uncharted 4 or Halo 5?

Worldwide, there is no contest lol

Going with Halo 5.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Do we have the numbers for Halo 5 already?

yes, look through the thread

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Uncharted 4 will move More console than Halo 5 for a simple reason: It will release in March. Better month for Sales.

Maybe i should rememb You that PS4 in March 2014 with Infamous and in March 2015 with BloodBorne has Sold More than XB1 with Halo 5 in October.

 

[Memento]

Uncharted 4 will move More console than Halo 5 for a simple reason: It will release in March. Better month for Sales.

Maybe i should rememb You that PS4 in March 2014 with Infamous and in March 2015 with BloodBorne has Sold More than XB1 with Halo 5 in October.

This is true. And the Uncharted IP is much bigger than inFAMOUS and Souls/Bloodborne.

 

[Loris146]

Question for discussion:

Which will have the better NPD launch month: Uncharted 4 or Halo 5?

Worldwide, there is no contest lol

Halo 5 :

USA : 935k ( with bundles/without digital ) in 5 days

Uncharted 3 :

USA : 700k ( don't know if there were bundles ) in 25 days

I think is gonna be close.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Uncharted 4 will move More console than Halo 5 for a simple reason: It will release in March. Better month for Sales.

Maybe i should rememb You that PS4 in March 2014 with Infamous and in March 2015 with BloodBorne has Sold More than XB1 with Halo 5 in October.

You're probably right about that.

But I'm referring to number of copies of the games sold (including bundles)

 

[Memento]

Halo 5 :

USA : 935 ( with bundles/without digital ) in 5 days

Uncharted 3 :

USA : 700k ( don't know if there were bundles ) in 25 days

I think is gonna be close.

Thanks for the numbers. I think Uncharted 4 definitely has a chance then.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Halo 5 :

USA : 935k ( with bundles/without digital ) in 5 days

Uncharted 3 :

USA : 700k ( don't know if there were bundles ) in 25 days

I think is gonna be close.

would make for a fun bet

 

[IncognitoPanda]

I really don't get how Sony has managed to leave 2 Holidays on the table without a major exclusive. I feel like post launch, they have made nothing but poor management decisions, but they did so well prelaunch they are just riding that. It seems like they may have rested on their laurels a bit too long.

I think it is the opposite. They have learned how to optimize their sales without risk. Having people think SW: Battlefront and CoD now belongs on the PS4, that's a whole lot of automatic sales. They don't need exclusives since it's already viewed by most as the superior console. Any exclusive is just the cherry on top at this point. I don't see anything hindering their enormous momentum.

 

[Welfare]

Uncharted 4 will move More console than Halo 5 for a simple reason: It will release in March. Better month for Sales.

Maybe i should rememb You that PS4 in March 2014 with Infamous and in March 2015 with BloodBorne has Sold More than XB1 with Halo 5 in October.

The PS4 did not sell more in March of 2014 because of Infamous.

 

[theprodigy]

Uncharted 4 will move More console than Halo 5 for a simple reason: It will release in March. Better month for Sales.

Maybe i should rememb You that PS4 in March 2014 with Infamous and in March 2015 with BloodBorne has Sold More than XB1 with Halo 5 in October.

what the hell happened to your English in this post

 

[LifEndz]

Crazy to think Uncharted could have a better opening week than Halo, digital sales and microtransactions aside.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Crazy to think Uncharted could have a better opening week than Halo, digital sales and microtransactions aside.

Didn't the last of us sell better than halo 5?

I remember when sales discussion used to put halo above and beyond the Sony exclusives.... Not so anymore it seems.

Huge drop off for Microsoft published exclusives.

 

[harrisk954]

It didn't do poorly. It did disappointing numbers.

But poorly is a different tier, which that Halo 5 is not in.

No. I agree that it did poorly,"poorly" being a relative term.

 

[Bgamer90]

Uncharted 4 will move More console than Halo 5 for a simple reason: It will release in March. Better month for Sales.

March is usually pretty similar to October for console sales -- at least this was the case last gen.

Maybe i should rememb You that PS4 in March 2014 with Infamous and in March 2015 with BloodBorne has Sold More than XB1 with Halo 5 in October.

March 2014 was more so about the PS4 being a new console.

 

[Primethius]

I'd honestly be surprised (shocked even) if UC4 doesn't end up pulling better numbers then Halo 5 in it's first month.

 

[Massa]

Didn't the last of us sell better than halo 5?

I remember when sales discussion used to put halo above and beyond the Sony exclusives.... Not so anymore it seems.

Huge drop off for Microsoft published exclusives.

Well, I don't think we'll be seeing tweets like this about Halo 5:

 

[Kyoufu]

no one?

bloody cowards

I'm not a coward. I just happen to think it won't chart either.

 

[orochi91]

Well, I don't think we'll be seeing tweets like this about Halo 5:

I imagine GT5, UC3 and TLoU outsold most of MS games too lol

 

[3rdamention]

Well, I don't think we'll be seeing tweets like this about Halo 5:

Wow, and now they aren't going to share sales numbers...My how things have changed..