MickeyKnox said:
no it won't.
Not even going into IQ and AQ, you people are grossly underestimating the financial reasoning behind keeping films primarily on a disc based solution.
Discs = more money for the studios than digital downloads = digital downloads won't replace physical media.
IMO...
People will sacrifice both IQ and AQ (to some degree) for convenience. CD's (or even crappy Tapes) vs Vinyl is a good example of that, or even how 128 bit mp3's are considered "good enough" even though CD's have uncompressed audio with bit rate of 1411.2 kb/s. To me, that proves that past a certain quality level, people will gladly trade quality for convenience.
Personally, I've noticed people being far more picky about image quality, and even then, as long as general image quality is just "good", they'll except it, especially if it's a few bucks cheaper. Heck, I could see more people complaining about a lack of special features than anything else.
Physical media requires actual physical manufacturing, from the actual discs to the dvd cases, then physically boxing and moving said releases (via shipping) all over the world. I suspect that downloadable media could remove
some of those costs, and that the industry could sell downloadable content cheaper while still making a profit.
I'm not saying that there will be no physical media in five years, obviously there will still be the need/want archive things. My thought is that there "should" be enough of an downloadable alternative to break us out of this "one disc format to rule them all" cycle.
It's going to be interesting to see how downloadable media changes consoles. Will future consoles even feature disk drives? Or maybe they'll break the consoles into two sku's, i.e. the cheaper core model will feature no drive, while the more expensive model does include a drive.