Plague Doctor
Member
Thanks for the insight!
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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Thanks for the insight!
StrongBlackVine
Banned
PS4 is off to present great start for November. All 4 major PS4 bundles(COD, Uncharted and both Star Wars) charting before the highest Xbox bundle on Amazon. I'm a bit surprised that the highest selling bundle right now is the $429 Call Of Duty LE PS4.
What did you put in amazon to get November numbers?
pixelation
Member
I'm not so sure about that, i often see him posting things that makes him come across as a bit of a MS dude... or at least that's the vibe that i get from him.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Nothing. I just looked at the hourly rankings. I don't think there is a chart for the month this soon.
But that was the case with TTK as well. It's pretty clear that XB1 has a higher attache rate for Destiny, the PS4 SKU barely sold better even if you include bundles, despite the difference in the install base.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I fail to see why attach rate matters compared to total sales.
Not only was the exact same deal occuring during TTK launch but TTK was a different beast entirely. A good chunk of sales were likely digital because of its price scheme and the fact that it was listed as an expansion like the two previous digital only expansions. There were three different TTK versions in the top ranking for PSN that month. Consequently the same month that Sony stated was the highest grossing for PSN ever. NPD retail figures just dont paint the proper picture. They are skewed because of the context around the releases.
Also the market which NPD reports on has a relatively small hardware gap between the two platforms (~840k or ~10% in favor of PS4). You're making it out like the hardware gap is massive and it's really not in that market. Now this could very well change as time goes on but right now it's not as vast as you seem to be arguing it is. It's well within reason that the two could have close software sales given the current user base differential. So again context is important here. Please consider all relevant information/data in regards to these figures before making such nonchalant blanket statements.
while true he has always come across as being reasonable and genuinely contributes to the conversation as a whole. Exactly like BGamer does. While both of them obviously favor MS they are both valuable members of SalesGAF for their ability to contribute to the ongoing conversation. Case in point
A solid point/post by Bgamer which went entirely disregarded in this thread. Although I will say that it is missing the analysis of the PS4 figures and placing and I think that would provide a bit more clarity to the argument presented here it is still a good counterpoint to a lot of the grandstanding thats been occurring in this thread. I would post the PS4 analysis of the same chart/month but I dont have the time right now. Anyways just thought I'd say thanks for the solid post BGamer.
Obliterator
Member
Nvm
The original point was that the marketing deals don't necessary make the demos migrate over, that's why you see a natural split for a game like Batman, but the split is much closer to 50/50 in Destiny despite the difference in install base.
Playstation was definitely more successful with it though, Xbox never succeeded in attracting the audience that is leaning towards Playstation-associated genres, & I don't see Tomb Raider changing that.
GravityInsanity
Member
tattooed_dwarf
Member
It's because he's not always on Sony's "side", but rather has very grounded approach to things. He might sometimes defend MS but just because some blown out of proportions thing gets dog pile going on. That's how I see him.
Katana_Strikes
Member
Wonder if we get any PR from MS perhaps today about Halo. Silence could be a bad sign but then the PR could just be masterful spin.
Katana_Strikes
Member
Wow going off the UK numbers Halo 5 only did 150k first week. The lowest mainline entry sales by some margin. We might just not get any PR after all if US numbers are low.
AmaterasuOni
Banned
Destiny is not 50/50. Destiny sold tons and tons digitally. Most Destiny players are on PS4. Activision confirmed this.
Katana_Strikes
Member
If Halo is a sales disappointment in the US too then I think MS can kiss October and indeed the rest of the year goodbye unless they drop the price or have some insane deals to counter the PS4 Star Wars and COD bundles.
AmaterasuOni
Banned
So it looks like Halo 5 debuted with a week 1 sale of 150k in little USA (aka UK). To put that in perspective here are the other title's week 1 numbers
- HALO: COMBAT EVOLVED - Unknown
- HALO 2 - 260,000
- HALO 3 - 370,000
- HALO WARS - 65,000
- HALO 3: ODST - 212,000
- HALO: REACH - 390,000
- HALO 4 - Slightly over 332,000
- HALO: THE MASTER CHIEF COLLECTION - Between 80,000 and 105,000
- HALO 5: GUARDIANS - 150,000
That makes it the lowest selling numbered entry in the series by far. It even sold less than ODST. That's gotta hurt.
Like I said earlier, Halo 5 was hardly visible on Twitch after the launch. Twitch is quite decent indicator when it comes to multiplayer games.
It will be number one on the charts for sure but it will sell much lower than Halo 4. Which is likely why MS introduced Microtransactions. They wisely focused on increasing arpu (average return per user) as opposed to banking on high sales to carry the title to profitability. No doubt that will prove extremely profitable for them.
Dash_Riprock
Member
So it looks like Halo 5 debuted with a week 1 sale of 150k in little USA (aka UK). To put that in perspective here are the other title's week 1 numbers
That makes it the lowest selling numbered entry in the series by far. It even sold less than ODST
Wow, that's bad. How much of this was due to general franchise fatigue and how much was due to Halo 4 underwhelming and the MCC's disastrous launch?
NeloAnjelo
Member
Very hard month indeed, as the pre-orders for the Halo 5 bundles went Live a few months back. these will count towards October as we all know, so we can't really look at Amazon's monthy for much guidance. What is evident though is that the PS4 may take Novemeber. For Oct I predict a lead for the Xb-one...
[PS4] 401K
[XB1] 420K
[WiiU] 65K
[PS4] 401K
[XB1] 420K
[WiiU] 65K
Not really, over 10 million people play Call of Duty Black Ops on PS360 every month yet the game doesn't show up anywhere near the top spot. Twitch isn't an indicator of anything.
Halo 3 3.3 million
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=200486
Halo 4 3.2 million
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=503054
AmaterasuOni
Banned
It is for new releases. After a while, not so much anymore. Some games stay near the top, most fall down in a week. Halo should stay near the top, but it has less than 3k viewers at the moment while Destiny is at 7k (yeah, multiple platforms, but it's still an old game). It seems Halo is not going to be a popular multiplayer.
Acting like NPD numbers isn't about winners and losers is just another transparent attempt at spinning a narrative. I wouldn't call it being "objective" at all.
Being "objective" would be calling the winners and losers like the numbers show them to be.
But, you know, it's cool if some posters don't want us to "look too deep into it"... It's, how do you say, "interesting."
Don't worry guys, Sony isn't winning, they're just selling more.
What a load of bollocks.
Being "objective" would be calling the winners and losers like the numbers show them to be.
But, you know, it's cool if some posters don't want us to "look too deep into it"... It's, how do you say, "interesting."
Don't worry guys, Sony isn't winning, they're just selling more.
What a load of bollocks.
So it looks like Halo 5 debuted with a week 1 sale of 150k in little USA (aka UK). To put that in perspective here are the other title's week 1 numbers
That makes it the lowest selling numbered entry in the series by far. It even sold less than ODST
Did Xbox and 360 have much bigger install bases at the time Halo 2, 3, 4 etc launched? If so surely no one can be surprised if Halo 5 had lower sales
Katana_Strikes
Member
And this is before CoD and Battlefront.
Those sales aren't just "lower", but significantly lower, Titanfall released on a much much smaller install base & sold only slightly worse than Halo 5.
No actually the XB1 has a larger install base than the 360 did when Halo 3 released.
Atm, launch aligned, the XB1 has a bigger install base than the 360 afaik.
Unfortunately, it means for sales that Halo5 might be compared to Halo3 which launched in a similar timeframe (2 years in) and was a beast. Back then, MS spent reportedly $40m on its marketing, even opening on National tv on the launch day by doing a Nasdaq market opening it seems.
So it looks like Halo 5 debuted with a week 1 sale of 150k in little USA (aka UK). To put that in perspective here are the other title's week 1 numbers
That makes it the lowest selling numbered entry in the series by far. It even sold less than ODST
Ok fair enough, but my point was it was obvious Halo 5 was never going to get anywhere near the sales figures of Halo 3/Reach/4 due to install base, so why are people shocked?
*** Ignore comments about Halo 3 - didn't realise install base was the same on both - should of done my research
**Ok I did not know that - I guess MS won't release official Halo 5 figures anytime as they don't seem to be willing to do that at the moment
Beautiful Ninja
Member
Wouldn't the install bases for the Xbox 360 be pretty close to the Xbox One at this point? Numbers I saw posted earlier had the 360 at around 13.4 million worldwide after 8 quarters, Xbox One is estimated a little bit higher than that.
Both games came out pretty close to 2 years after the console launched.
Yes, I edited my post above - I didn't realise that
It sold less than ODST man and these numbers actually do include bundle sales as well. I don't think anyone was expecting that except maybe MS hence the addition of req packs in an effort to increase arpu
I will wait until tomorrow for a possible PR spin for Halo 5. If I hear crickets, it means it is below expectations.
Based on Halo 4: 3,200,000 sales, if say there is a projected 50% sales drop similar to UK numbers we get about 1.5 million NPD sales.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Oh dear at that Halo 5 UK opening... I was sure it would perform excellently in terms of software. Perhaps the US will pull through with very good numbers.
slavesnyder
Member
Allan has a preference it seems, and an opinion. And that's totally fine.
It's inportant that we have all kinds of tendecies here, otherwise this would be really boring with everyone only congratulating each other to the next PS4 scoop.
I wasn't trying to get any numbers out of the Amazon monthly charts since that is pretty much impossible. Right now, I just think that the pre orders of the Halo 5 bundle in August isn't necessarily enough to give it a win over the PS4. Of course, it's possible, but there are three PS4 SKU's being quite close to the Halo 5 bundle, with one being ahead. Anyway, I don't just rely on Amazon to make my predictions since it represents only 5% of the market. I always wait for insight from Abdiel as well to make my predictions to get a better idea of sales for that month. Even then, it's not enough and I wish more retail insiders posted here. Anyway, I agree October will be close either way.
Since UK is basically a mini US, I'm gonna say I think Halo 5 didn't do too well in the US too.So it looks like Halo 5 debuted with a week 1 sale of 150k in little USA (aka UK). To put that in perspective here are the other title's week 1 numbers
That makes it the lowest selling numbered entry in the series by far. It even sold less than ODST
Primethius
Banned
Seeing the UK numbers for Halo 5 makes me a bit more confident in a PS4 victory this month. I should probably revise my prediction too. Debuting at half the sales of prior titles doesn't bode well for how much hardware I expect it to move.
Yeah after seeing that UK thread many seem to be in denial about how unimpressive the sales are there. We'll see if MS releases a statement by tomorrow.
But I feel if the sales in NA are just as unimpressive AND ps4 manages to take the month... That NPD thread will be very interesting.
But I feel if the sales in NA are just as unimpressive AND ps4 manages to take the month... That NPD thread will be very interesting.
Yea I already stated I will be revising mine a few times before the deadline...lol. I know UK isnt NA but still... OT: And seeing all the Star Wars costumes this Halloween..from adults and kids...the PS4 Star Wars bundle is gonna be mind blowing for Nov.
Eh
Top selling digital add on for PSN is The Taken King
No real reason to buy a $20 more expensive physical copy