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[Bgamer90]

while true he has always come across as being reasonable and genuinely contributes to the conversation as a whole. Exactly like BGamer does. While both of them obviously favor MS they are both valuable members of SalesGAF for their ability to contribute to the ongoing conversation. Case in point...


...A solid point/post by Bgamer which went entirely disregarded in this thread. Although I will say that it is missing the analysis of the PS4 figures and placing and I think that would provide a bit more clarity to the argument presented here it is still a good counterpoint to a lot of the grandstanding thats been occurring in this thread. I would post the PS4 analysis of the same chart/month but I dont have the time right now. Anyways just thought I'd say thanks for the solid post BGamer.

Thanks. I do prefer MS' lineup when it comes to my gaming taste (action, racers, etc.) but I really wouldn't say that it plays a role in my predictions in these threads at all.

________________________________

I wasn't trying to get any numbers out of the Amazon monthly charts since that is pretty much impossible. Right now, I just think that the pre orders of the Halo 5 bundle in August isn't necessarily enough to give it a win over the PS4. Of course, it's possible, but there are three PS4 SKU's being quite close to the Halo 5 bundle, with one being ahead. Anyway, I don't just rely on Amazon to make my predictions since it represents only 5% of the market.

This is exactly what I mean though... What's the point of using Amazon if we're not going to use it to its fullest potential for predicting sales? As I said earlier, the Halo 5 bundle was the top Xbox One on Amazon during August -- a month in which the system sold 202K. People here use Amazon ranks all the time to state how much more they felt one system sold over the other (mainly PS4 vs. Xbox One obviously).

If the Halo 5 bundle was 16 spots higher than the first Xbox One bundle that actually counted for sales in August (a 202K month) then what does that say about Halo 5 bundle pre-orders in August?

 

[gtj1092]

[PS4] 475k
[XB1] 405k
[WIU] 60k
[3DS] 95k

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Well, after those Halo 5 sales in UK, i'm gonna say PS4 > XB1.

 

[Ricky_R]

I was almost sure that this would be a MS month due to Halo, but now I don't know... all things considered.

 

[gtj1092]

Thanks. I do prefer MS' lineup when it comes to my gaming taste (action, racers, etc.) but I really wouldn't say that it plays a role in my predictions in these threads at all.

________________________________



This is exactly what I mean though... What's the point of using Amazon if we're not going to use it to its fullest potential for predicting sales? As I said earlier, the Halo 5 bundle was the top Xbox One on Amazon during August -- a month in which the system sold 202K. People here use Amazon ranks all the time to state how much more they felt one system sold over the other (mainly PS4 vs. Xbox One obviously).

If the Halo 5 bundle was 16 spots higher than the first Xbox One bundle that actually counted for sales in August (a 202K month) then what does that say about Halo 5 bundle pre-orders in August?

That most people preordered instantly since it didn't even chart in the top 100 in October. Also if I remember correctly the Halo 5 bundle started a number 9 in the monthly after it's initial announcement and slowly worked it's way down the chart until it was out of the top 100 on Amazon.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I adjusted X1 down to 375K and PS4 down to 405K.

 

[Javin98]

This is exactly what I mean though... What's the point of using Amazon if we're not going to use it to its fullest potential for predicting sales? As I said earlier, the Halo 5 bundle was the top Xbox One on Amazon during August -- a month in which the system sold 202K. People here use Amazon ranks all the time to state how much more they felt one system sold over the other (mainly PS4 vs. Xbox One obviously).

If the Halo 5 bundle was 16 spots higher than the first Xbox One bundle that actually counted for sales in August (a 202K month) then what does that say about Halo 5 bundle pre-orders in August?

Still, we can't use the differences in positions of the monthly charts to determine the gap, even with SKU's of the same platform. Just look at May 2015, for instance. The PS4 was quite a bit ahead of the XB1, but the gap ended up being only 13K. Honestly, the Amazon monthly charts are only good for determining the victor, that's it. It is possible this month the charts could tell a different story due to the pre orders in August, but I doubt it.

Also, I just looked at the first five pages of the Halo 5 UK sales thread and damn, that is a lot of salt from some posters.

 

[sportz103]

Eh
Top selling digital add on for PSN is The Taken King
No real reason to buy a $20 more expensive physical copy

The physical copy includes a digital voucher for The Taken King. Every physical sale is a digital sale.

 

[Bgamer90]

That most people preordered instantly since it didn't even chart in the top 100 in October.

I believe you mean September but still -- it doesn't go against what I said. We might as well use Amazon to the fullest if we are going to heavily use it for October.

August shows that the bundle was (pretty far) above every other Xbox on Amazon in August -- a month in which the system sold 202K. Shouldn't that be factored into this month if we are going to use Amazon? Could we assume that to equal 50-75K being added to October if we are going to heavily use Amazon anyway?

Also if I remember correctly the Halo 5 bundle started a number 9 in the monthly after it's initial announcement and slowly worked it's way down the chart until it was out of the top 100 on Amazon.

Okay; I don't know if that's true (not saying your wrong -- I just didn't follow Amazon like that in August) but what does that have to do with the point I brought up?

 

[piccio_ssl]

Still, we can't use the differences in positions of the monthly charts to determine the gap, even with SKU's of the same platform. Just look at May 2015, for instance. The PS4 was quite a bit ahead of the XB1, but the gap ended up being only 13K. Honestly, the Amazon monthly charts are only good for determining the victor, that's it. It is possible this month the charts could tell a different story due to the pre orders in August, but I doubt it.

Also, I just looked at the first five pages of the Halo 5 UK sales thread and damn, that is a lot of salt from some posters.

now imagine if sony will win october
a thread of a lifetime

 

[Primethius]

now imagine if sony will win october
a thread of a lifetime

To be quite honest, I'd actually be more surprised if MS ends up winning October. That's my expectation anyways. The UK sales are an eye-opener for sure. Combined with the Amazon charts and price-cut, I honestly do think going with PS4 for the month is the safer bet.

 

[Bgamer90]

Still, we can't use the differences in positions of the monthly charts to determine the gap, even with SKU's of the same platform.

Just look at May 2015, for instance. The PS4 was quite a bit ahead of the XB1, but the gap ended up being only 13K. Honestly, the Amazon monthly charts are only good for determining the victor, that's it. It is possible this month the charts could tell a different story due to the pre orders in August, but I doubt it.

I definitely agree and I've said that many times before. It's just that wouldn't Halo bundle sales from August pretty much act like its own SKU for October especially (again) considering it was the top Xbox that month (even though it didn't count for sales)?

Basically all I'm trying to say is that if we are going to use Amazon stats in the first place then we might as well take it this far when it comes to a bundle that was introduced months ago; I don't understand the picking and choosing.

 

[Javin98]

now imagine if sony will win october
a thread of a lifetime

I'm imagining salt mines and a few meltdowns. XD

I definitely agree and I've said that many times before. It's just that wouldn't Halo bundle sales from August pretty much act like its own SKU for October especially (again) considering it was the top Xbox that month (even though it didn't count for sales)?

Basically all I'm trying to say is that if we are going to use Amazon stats in the first place then we might as well take it this far when it comes to a bundle that was introduced months ago; I don't understand the picking and choosing.

Look, all I'm saying is that I don't think that the pre orders for the Halo 5 bundle in August is enough to give it a win in October. If you think it is, feel free to put the XB1 ahead of the PS4, but I'm still uncertain at this point and I'm currently seeing a PS4 win, albeit by a slight margin.

 

[Bgamer90]

Look, all I'm saying is that I don't think that the pre orders for the Halo 5 bundle in August is enough to give it a win in October. If you think it is, feel free to put the XB1 ahead of the PS4, but I'm still uncertain at this point and I'm currently seeing a PS4 win, albeit by a slight margin.

I don't know which is why I haven't made a prediction yet.

We know actual stats from August. We know how the Xbox One did that month (a little bit over 200K). I just simply don't understand how people could brush off August, the month in which the Halo 5 bundle was higher on Amazon than any other Xbox bundle (and by a good margin) but yet have such an in depth focus on October Amazon stats without knowing total October sales (as October NPD isn't out yet obviously). That's all.

 

[Blanquito]

I don't know which is why I haven't made a prediction yet.

We know actual stats from August. We know how the Xbox One did that month (a little bit over 200K). I just simply don't understand how people could brush off August, the month in which the Halo 5 bundle was higher on Amazon than any other Xbox bundle (and by a good margin) but yet have such an in depth focus on October Amazon stats without knowing total October sales (as October NPD isn't out yet obviously). That's all.

Yeah, that's the tough part.

Maybe you could look back at how people predicted Sept 2014 and the white ps4 with destiny, since it was in a similar situation with a couple months of preorders on amazon?

 

[Raziel]

Do people pre-order new console bundles months in advance at brick and mortar in the same number as they do on online retail sites? Are they counted as a separate tally the same as they are on online retail sites?

 

[Primethius]

Do people pre-order new console bundles months in advance at brick and mortar in the same number as they do on online retail sites?

I'm willing to wager not, especially if Amazon is concerned. Amazon doesn't charge you for stuff until it ships so a pre-order hold's intrinsically less value.

 

[sense]

I don't know which is why I haven't made a prediction yet.

We know actual stats from August. We know how the Xbox One did that month (a little bit over 200K). I just simply don't understand how people could brush off August, the month in which the Halo 5 bundle was higher on Amazon than any other Xbox bundle (and by a good margin) but yet have such an in depth focus on October Amazon stats without knowing total October sales (as October NPD isn't out yet obviously). That's all.

isn't it kinda surprising that we have come from MS winning october hands down from the beginning of this year to now having doubts whether it will even win the month!

 

[foxbeldin]

isn't it kinda surprising that we have come from MS winning october hands down from the beginning of this year to now having doubts whether it will even win the month!

March 2014 's ghost is floating above this thread.

 

[Bgamer90]

isn't it kinda surprising that we have come from MS winning october hands down from the beginning of this year to now having doubts whether it will even win the month!

I wouldn't say so considering some didn't think there would be a PS4 price drop this early + many didn't expect the Halo 5 bundle to be so much ($500).

It's not like this is simply a Halo 5 launch month and nothing more (something that many expected months ago).

 

[eerik9000]

I see 18.5m Sold and 20m shipped.

I don't.

Let's see the official shipped numbers from Microsoft's earning reports (using calendar years):

2013
Q4 - 3.9m XONE, 3.5m X360

2014
Q1 - 1.2m XONE, 0.8m X360
Q2 - 1.1m XONE+360
Q3 - 2.4m XONE+360
Q4 - 6.6m XONE+360

2015
Q1 - 1.6m XONE+360
Q2 - 1.4m XONE+360
Q3 - ???

So we know that MS shipped 5.1 million Xbox Ones between October 2013 and March 2014, plus 13.1 Xbox consoles (One and 360 combined) between April 2014 and June 2015.

We don't know how much they shipped in Q3 2015 and we don't know the share breakdown of the two consoles since Q2 2014.

Let's be optimistic and say they shipped 3 million Xboxes last quarter. That brings the number of consoles shipped between Q2 2014 and Q3 2015 to 16.1 million. Let's be optimistic and say that 90% of those are Xbox Ones. That's 14.5 million. Now add the 5.1 million to that and we get 19.6 million Xbox Ones shipped. And that is a very optimistic estimate.

I think that, realistically, they shipped less than 3 million consoles in the last quarter and that Xbox One's share since Q2 2014 is much lower than 90%.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I don't.

Let's see the official shipped numbers from Microsoft's earning reports (using calendar years):

2013
Q4 - 3.9m XONE, 3.5m X360

2014
Q1 - 1.2m XONE, 0.8m X360
Q2 - 1.1m XONE+360
Q3 - 2.4m XONE+360
Q4 - 6.6m XONE+360

2015
Q1 - 1.6m XONE+360
Q2 - 1.4m XONE+360
Q3 - ???

So we know that MS shipped 5.1 million Xbox Ones between October 2013 and March 2014, plus 13.1 Xbox consoles (One and 360 combined) between April 2014 and June 2015.

We don't know how much they shipped in Q3 2015 and we don't know the share breakdown of the two consoles since Q2 2014.

Let's be optimistic and say they shipped 3 million Xboxes last quarter. That brings the number of consoles shipped between Q2 2014 and Q3 2015 to 16.1 million. Let's be optimistic and say that 90% of those are Xbox Ones. That's 14.5 million. Now add the 5.1 million to that and we get 19.6 million Xbox Ones shipped. And that is a very optimistic estimate.

I think that, realistically, they shipped less than 3 million consoles in the last quarter and that Xbox One's share since Q2 2014 is much lower than 90%.

I talk about end of year.

 

[gtj1092]

I wouldn't say so considering some didn't think there would be a PS4 price drop this early + many didn't expect the Halo 5 bundle to be so much ($500).

It's not like this is simply a Halo 5 launch month and nothing more (something that many expected months ago).

You can buy x1s for $349 with game and halo separately. Don't think the price of the bundle makes that big a difference. Also during launch you could buy an x1 and get halo 5 for only $359.

 

[eerik9000]

I talk about end of year.

Apologies, my bad. Should have read those earlier posts. 20 million Xbox Ones shipped by the end of the year is very likely.

 

[RexNovis]

I wouldn't say so considering some didn't think there would be a PS4 price drop this early + many didn't expect the Halo 5 bundle to be so much ($500).

It's not like this is simply a Halo 5 launch month and nothing more (something that many expected months ago).

This. The PS4 price drop timing was not what anyone predicted. At first I was skeptical that a mere $50 drop would have a substantial impact but retailer insiders and Amazon seem to indicate it has.

Honestly I could see this month going either way but the way Halo performed in the UK has me leaning more towards a possible PS4 win at the moment. But even so, it is far from a sure thing for precisely the reasons Bgamer is talking about here. The preorder sales in the Amazon charts skew the October results and make them less concrete/reliable.

I realize that it's tempting to get caught up in the insanity of the moment and freak out at the possibility of Sony coming out ahead during Halo month but let's not go proclaiming things as gospel or making light of people with dissenting opinions when the evidence simply isn't there to declare it either way this point.

TLDR: Behave yourselves and be mindful of the information we have.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Apologies, my bad. Should have read those earlier posts. 20 million Xbox Ones shipped by the end of the year is very likely.

Don't worry.

 

[Bgamer90]

You can buy x1s for $349 with game and halo separately.

Yes, though not during the whole month.

Don't think the price of the bundle makes that big a difference. Also during launch you could buy an x1 and get halo 5 for only $359.

In some places, yes.

But anyway, this still doesn't go against my point that the PS4 had a price drop that many weren't expecting months ago as well as many expecting the special Halo bundle to be $400 tops. Not sure how these two things are being brushed off in the "It's so crazy that just a few months ago many thought..." posts.

 

[piccio_ssl]

To be quite honest, I'd actually be more surprised if MS ends up winning October. That's my expectation anyways. The UK sales are an eye-opener for sure. Combined with the Amazon charts and price-cut, I honestly do think going with PS4 for the month is the safer bet.

i still think that MS will take the month, even if the gap will be not wide though
i mean, it's fucking halo right here
what i'm looking forward too is march 2016, when uncharted will be released, and see if those people who claimed that U4 will not come close to H5 were right

 

[Boke1879]

i still think that MS will take the month, even if the gap will be not wide though
i mean, it's fucking halo right here
what i'm looking forward too is march 2016, when uncharted will be released, and see if those people who claimed that U4 will not come close to H5 were right

Yea the deck is still in play for MS to win the month. The big shock will be if PS4 can take it still.

 

[Liabe Brave]

It's just that wouldn't Halo bundle sales from August pretty much act like its own SKU for October especially (again) considering it was the top Xbox that month (even though it didn't count for sales)?

Yes it will, but attempting to determine actual numbers from Amazon has been inaccurate every time. It's only been reliable when it comes to the generalized measure of comparative ranking.

So where would the "separate SKU" of August Halo 5 be? Well, it was at #24 in that month...but we all agree hardware sales in October will be 1.5 to 2x as high. That would push an August #24 downward. We can't know how much, but a conservative estimate could be about 10 positions.

That leaves us with Xbox One at #25, #34, and #94. Versus PS4 at #19, #43, and #54. So, just like everyone has been saying: very hard to predict, but definitely leaning toward PS4.

Basically, the preorders have already been factored into people's talk (whether consciously or not). Without them, Amazon would clearly be indicating a big win for PS4.

 

[Nightengale]

I disagree on the Halo 5 bundle pricing. It makes perfect sense if you look at it from MS's perspective, confidence and trust in the Halo brand.

If you have faith that Halo 5 is a bonafide system seller by the virtue of the game's release itself, your bundle of that game... must be a premium product. Limited, custom, bling-bling, etc. The game itself will sell regular XB1s. The bundle is the premium pusher for the first month.

Only after that, a month or two later, then you can "devalue" your game and make it a free bundle or add it on to regular bundles.

Look at Halo MCC. That is just a "Collection", and if we look at how MS planned their marketing in the US for that Collection, they refused to make a standard MCC bundle for the holidays, limiting it to Black Friday/Wallmart, and only made the MCC bundle readily available early this year. It's the marketing moves of a company who believes Halo sells itself, and don't need lower priced bundles to push sales.

 

[sense]

Yes, though not during the whole month.



In some places, yes.

But anyway, this still doesn't go against my point that the PS4 had a price drop that many weren't expecting months ago as well as many expecting the special Halo bundle to be $400 tops.

so you are saying some people predicted ms oct npd win hands down expecting sony to do nothing during halo month and not because halo is a huge ip, known to be a system seller, "best holiday lineup in xbox history", no new exclusives for sony...

lets be real here, the major reason people said xbox wins october was because it is HALO. lets see what happens because MS still might win october but this excuse of sony did a price cut (not even 100 like i was expecting them to do to counter halo) and halo only had a limited edition for 500 is pretty weak.

 

[RexNovis]

so you are saying some people predicted ms oct npd win hands down expecting sony to do nothing during halo month and not because halo is a huge ip, known to be a system seller, "best holiday lineup in xbox history", no new exclusives for sony...

lets be real here, the major reason people said xbox wins october was because it is HALO. lets see what happens because MS still might win october but this excuse of sony did a price cut (not even 100 like i was expecting them to do to counter halo) and halo only had a limited edition for 500 is pretty weak.

No that's not what he said at all. He said the price drop announcement was unexpected and it was because it came much earlier than anyone thought it would meaning the entirety of October benefited from the boost of the price drop instead of just the last week (after PGW conference) as many thought it would be. And he's 100% right. The earlier announcement was a game changer in a lot of ways.

 

[Boke1879]

I disagree on the Halo 5 bundle pricing. It makes perfect sense if you look at it from MS's perspective, confidence and trust in the Halo brand.

If you have faith that Halo 5 is a bonafide system seller by the virtue of the game's release itself, your bundle of that game... must be a premium product. Limited, custom, bling-bling, etc. The game itself will sell regular XB1s. The bundle is the premium pusher for the first month.

Only after that, a month or two later, then you can "devalue" your game and make it a free bundle or add it on to regular bundles.

Look at Halo MCC. That is just a "Collection", and if we look at how MS planned their marketing in the US for that Collection, they refused to make a standard MCC bundle for the holidays, limiting it to Black Friday/Wallmart, and only made the MCC bundle readily available early this year. It's the marketing moves of a company who believes Halo sells itself, and don't need lower priced bundles to push sales.

I see what you're saying overall but if they wanted Halo 5 to push systems they could have at least put out a $400 sku out there. At $500 it's only appealing to the hardcore/impulse buyer.

Look at the PS4 SW BF LE. Star Wars a much more prominent and recognizable IP is retailing for the cost of a PS4 before the price drop and it's standard edition is retailing for $350. It's not about having faith in the brand. It's about getting as many consoles into the hands of consumers this holiday.

 

[get2sammyb]

Halo 5 will have done better in the US than the UK, I'm sure of it. I didn't really feel the buzz for Halo 5 here in the UK to be honest, but I imagine it was much greater in America.

 

[Primethius]

Halo 5 will have done better in the US than the UK, I'm sure of it. I didn't really feel the buzz for Halo 5 here in the UK to be honest, but I imagine it was much greater in America.

That's for sure. But I think the UK sales are a pretty valuable insight into how it'll perform in the U.S.

 

[Bgamer90]

Yes it will, but attempting to determine actual numbers from Amazon has been inaccurate every time. It's only been reliable when it comes to the generalized measure of comparative ranking.

So where would the "separate SKU" of August Halo 5 be? Well, it was at #24 in that month...but we all agree hardware sales in October will be 1.5 to 2x as high. That would push an August #24 downward. We can't know how much, but a conservative estimate could be about 10 positions.

That leaves us with Xbox One at #25, #34, and #94. Versus PS4 at #19, #43, and #54. So, just like everyone has been saying: very hard to predict, but definitely leaning toward PS4.

Basically, the preorders have already been factored into people's talk (whether consciously or not). Without them, Amazon would clearly be indicating a big win for PS4.

That's the thing too though -- 34 is higher than 43 and 54 (obviously) but how much higher is anyone's guess (sort of similar to what we saw in April).

There were also other Xbox SKUs released during the month. They were released too late for them to chart in any meaningful way but they could obviously have an impact on a month that will be seemingly close. But anyway, you won't be seeing my prediction until next week. I want to make sure I get all of the information that I can before stating it [have a feeling we might see an Xbox Wire (or something) on Halo soon]. Don't see the point in doing it now when I will just be editing it later more than likely.

 

[Pillville]

[PS4] 390K
[XB1] 410K
[3DS] 90K
[WIU] 60k

 

[sportz103]

That's for sure. But I think it's still the UK sales are a pretty valuable insight into how it'll perform in the U.S.

Another valuable insight is that amazon US lists it as the highest selling console game of 2015, above the main ps4 sku. So it probably sold alright.

 

[Ricky_R]

This. The PS4 price drop timing was not what anyone predicted.

And it actually should've been most people's prediction (those who believed there was going to be a price drop this year anyway), since it was a logical decision to announce it just in time for MS's biggest release, and close to the holiday season. I guess MS made it easier for Sony in that respect.

People were just dismissing the fact that Sony was going to announce a price drop due to healthy sales (even though they were slowly decreasing in the US afaik), thus they really didn't put much thought into the fact they might have announce one to counter Halo 5.

 

[RexNovis]

That actually should've been people's prediction, since it was a logical decision to announce a price drop just in time for MS's biggest release and close to the holiday season. I guess MS made it easier for Sony in that respect.

People were just dismissing the fact that Sony was going to announce a price drop due to healthy sales (even though they were slowly decreasing in the US afaik), thus they really didn't put much thought into the fact they might have announce a price drop to counter Halo 5.

People predicted an announcement at PGW which would mean the end of October. Instead it was announced at the beginning of the month. The earlier announcement made a big difference.

I disagree on the Halo 5 bundle pricing. It makes perfect sense if you look at it from MS's perspective, confidence and trust in the Halo brand.

If you have faith that Halo 5 is a bonafide system seller by the virtue of the game's release itself, your bundle of that game... must be a premium product. Limited, custom, bling-bling, etc. The game itself will sell regular XB1s. The bundle is the premium pusher for the first month.

Only after that, a month or two later, then you can "devalue" your game and make it a free bundle or add it on to regular bundles.

Look at Halo MCC. That is just a "Collection", and if we look at how MS planned their marketing in the US for that Collection, they refused to make a standard MCC bundle for the holidays, limiting it to Black Friday/Wallmart, and only made the MCC bundle readily available early this year. It's the marketing moves of a company who believes Halo sells itself, and don't need lower priced bundles to push sales.

Agreed although I think they did hedge their bets a bit by including req packs for money. That way even if the game didn't sell as well as they would like they would stand to make more money per purchase via in game Microtransactions. No doubt this will prove very profitable for them.

I think the shift of increasing profit margins is part of a new direction for the Xbox division going forward. They no longer seem interested in providing heavy subsidies in exchange for increased market share. They are instead aiming to make more profit per user hence the higher prices halo bundle, elite bundle and other announced bundles. They effectively sacrificed their price advantage as part of this because they are of the opinion that the hardcore Xbox fans will spend the money. This is why I think we will see significantly less discounting/crazy deals this holiday season than last holiday season.

 

[Boke1879]

Another valuable insight is that amazon US lists it as the highest selling console game of 2015, above the main ps4 sku. So it probably sold alright.

I wouldn't use amazon as an indicator of software. It's just not reliable. That said. No doubt Halo sold well here in NA. The question becomes how well did it sell?

 

[jjonez18]

I adjusted X1 down to 375K and PS4 down to 405K.

I'm thinking in the same light. Especially after coming from the Halo 5 UK sales thread. Halo hitting soft in a market that most closely mirrors NA really shakes my faith in X1. Had them tied, now I'm leaning PS4.

 

[Bgamer90]

I disagree on the Halo 5 bundle pricing. It makes perfect sense if you look at it from MS's perspective, confidence and trust in the Halo brand.

If you have faith that Halo 5 is a bonafide system seller by the virtue of the game's release itself, your bundle of that game... must be a premium product. Limited, custom, bling-bling, etc. The game itself will sell regular XB1s. The bundle is the premium pusher for the first month.

Yeah, I mean it definitely makes sense from a profit standpoint. Between the Halo 5 bundle, Halo 5 (game), and Elite controller, October 2015 will probably be one of the biggest months for MS this gen in terms of money from the Xbox brand (regardless of who is #1 for October NPD).

Many (including me) expected the special Halo 5 bundle to be cheaper though back during the early part of this year.

___________________________________

so you are saying some people predicted ms oct npd win hands down expecting sony to do nothing during halo month and not because halo is a huge ip, known to be a system seller, "best holiday lineup in xbox history", no new exclusives for sony...

Define "nothing". I never said nothing. I expected Sony to do something (e.g.: a new bundle with a free exclusive game) but not a price drop in early October.

lets be real here, the major reason people said xbox wins october was because it is HALO. lets see what happens because MS still might win october but this excuse of sony did a price cut (not even 100 like i was expecting them to do to counter halo) and halo only had a limited edition for 500 is pretty weak.

How is it an excuse when we are obviously seeing/hearing from others that the price drop helped?

______________________

People were just dismissing the fact that Sony was going to announce a price drop due to healthy sales (even though they were slowly decreasing in the US afaik), thus they really didn't put much thought into the fact they might have announce one to counter Halo 5.

Yep. That was definitely the case in those earlier "Will the PS4 have a price drop this year?" threads.

 

[sense]

No that's not what he said at all. He said the price drop announcement was unexpected and it was because it came much earlier than anyone thought it would meaning the entirety of October benefited from the boost of the price drop instead of just the last week (after PGW conference) as many thought it would be. And he's 100% right. The earlier announcement was a game changer in a lot of ways.

i know what he said and I am saying that is not a good enough reason. i mean really ? sony just had to do a 50 dollar drop earlier in the month and that was enough for them to counter Halo 5, their flagship ip. all i read was sony needs to have exclusives and they are going to be swept away by halo like the last holiday season. deny all you want but imo the reason the majority of people said ms will win october was because it was HALO and things like sony cutting the price, while not expected earlier in the month, was never gonna be enough to convince them to change their prediction.

saying all this i still think ms should win october but there is reason to doubt which didn't exist before.

 

[Fat4all]

I don't see how the PS4 price drop was "unexpected".

I was expecting it last month more than any other.

 

[Ricky_R]

People predicted an announcement at PGW which would mean the end of October. Instead it was announced at the beginning of the month. The earlier announcement made a big difference.

I agree. It was definitely better to put it into effect in the beginning-ish of the month. Dropping it by PGS wouldn't have had the same impact.

 

[RexNovis]

I don't see how the PS4 price drop was "unexpected".

I was expecting it last month more than any other.

It wasn't. The timing of the announcement was unexpected.most everyone assumed it would be announced at PGW during the last week of October. Instead it was announced at the beginning of the month and took effect immediately.

i know what he said and I am saying that is not a good enough reason. i mean really ? sony just had to do a 50 dollar drop earlier in the month and that was enough for them to counter Halo 5, their flagship ip. all i read was sony needs to have exclusives and they are going to be swept away by halo like the last holiday season. deny all you want but imo the reason the majority of people said ms will win october was because it was HALO and things like sony cutting the price, while not expected earlier in the month, was never gonna be enough to convince them to change their prediction.

saying all this i still think ms should win october but there is reason to doubt which didn't exist before.

It's not just cutting their price it is the first official price cut. The first time it is being sold under $400 everywhere since it was released two years ago. That's a pretty big deal. Like I said earlier I also doubted the impact a $50 drop would have but once insight and data stared filtering in it was clear that it did have a big impact and that early announcement gave them 3 more weeks of boosted sales than anybody really expected them to have. That's not insignificant.

 

[Boke1879]

i know what he said and I am saying that is not a good enough reason. i mean really ? sony just had to do a 50 dollar drop earlier in the month and that was enough for them to counter Halo 5, their flagship ip. all i read was sony needs to have exclusives and they are going to be swept away by halo like the last holiday season. deny all you want but imo the reason the majority of people said ms will win october was because it was HALO and things like sony cutting the price, while not expected earlier in the month, was never gonna be enough to convince them to change their prediction.

saying all this i still think ms should win october but there is reason to doubt which didn't exist before.

I see your point. I remember like right after E3. Colin and Greg predicted the PS4 would get crushed this Holiday because they didn't have exclusives.

Those people never took into account their deals with Battlefront or COD. Now with a price drop we are legit having a convo if the PS4 can win NPD in the month Halo drops.

 

[Bgamer90]

I see your point. I remember like right after E3. Colin and Greg predicted the PS4 would get crushed this Holiday because they didn't have exclusives.

Those people never took into account their deals with Battlefront or COD. Now with a price drop we are legit having a convo if the PS4 can win NPD in the month Halo drops.