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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
But come on. You even had plenty of people saying how $50 price drop wasn't enough and wouldn't move the needle at all. Clearly I wasn't directing my post at you. Just at the industry in general.
That said. I felt the PS4 didn't really need to drop it's price when the marketing deals they had. I felt it was enough to take at least November and December. Clearly Sony had other plans.
Haha! Indeed. I feel like either people just aren't reading what you're actually saying or they just don't understand because it seems like most agree with your point about the price drop having an impact but yet they are intent on arguing with you about it. It boggles the mind.
Case in point:
He's actually doing the opposite of that. Perhaps you should read his other posts before assuming.
Calm down people nothing Bgamer is saying is unreasonable. He's very clearly weighing all possible factors here.
Most people I talked to all agreed that announcing it then would of been too late in the month and wouldn't compete with Halo V properly, so I still don't agree.
Primethius
Banned
I think the PS4 price drop was a great idea actually, now that we seem to be getting reports that it's doing work. Provides a sizeable boost in sales while allowing Sony to drop $50 later before the launch of PSVR or whatever their plans are with that.
TO be fair I wasn't arguing his point. I was just agreeing with the other poster. There were still people that questioned a $50 price drop. Again I felt the marketing deals would have been enough for the PS4 to take the holidays.
It's just not we are getting close and data is starting to come in that people are changing their predictions.
??? -- I'm not. It's exactly the reason why I haven't made a prediction yet.
PS4 was selling well before the drop, so any official drop was bound to boost performance.
Sonys smart for only doing a $50 drop as well, keeps margins high.
It was a great idea and I really didn't expect one until I saw that Target leak. It was great to do it early in the month and it clearly got a significant boost.
.... Are you trying to miss the point here? The reason it is valid competition for Halo is because it was in effect for the whole onto which nobody that I saw was expecting. Perhaps you can pint out all these people who were saying it was going to be announced at the start of October because I sure as hell never saw that.
If your not talking snot Bgamer then what possible point died this serve in the context of the conversation? Why reply to him as if he should answer for other people's ridiculous comments. Those comments weren't his. The only comments he should be asked to address are his own and, luckily, they are completely sound.
You know, PS4 sold 340k WITHOUT price drop in September. Maybe you think that Halo 5 bundle preorders on Amazon ( from August ) will complement that 70k difference ( or more ) in sales from previous NPD plus sales in October. You think that will be enough for Xbone to win in October?
Primethius
Banned
Yea, that's for sure. I was more referencing that while they were selling well, the margins between the X1 and PS4 weren't as wide as last year, probably due to the price difference.
Now you get a $50 price drop (I was skeptical of this as opposed to a $100 in how effective it would be) in Halo's launch month, putting the month up for contention. Leading into a blitz of holiday marketing deals that I'm sure they'll win barring crazy MS price drops.
Combine that with faltering UK performance of Halo 5 (which I can only assume carries over to some degree in the US), all of a sudden the price drop in this time frame seems to be quite beneficial.
Maybe if you actually check the posts in the thread instead of just making stuff up you'll see the point was already referenced multiple times (including by myself).
the point is when people made their predictions earlier in the year they did it with the mindset of "no matter what sony does, halo is too big and will win them the month" and now that sony has done some things people are going back and changing/doubting their predictions. i am sure NOW bgamer is weighing all possible factors now that we are getting closer and more evidence is showing up that the price drop helped.
And it was during a month in which the PS4 had a special Destiny bundle.
It could be. There's nothing we have that states it factually won't be enough since we don't have numbers.
OH MY GOD! Serious question: are you actually reading his comments? Because you could have fooled me. He hasn't predicted yet because he can't decide. He is simply explaining why he is undecided: Halo bundle preorders and Early PS4 price drop. He's effectively saying "here is why I think this could go either way so I haven't decided yet so I'm going to wait for further information before I make a prediction."
Fucks sake. Just stop. You are making a total fool out of yourself.
Don't get sassy with me, Mr. Sassy.
Ive seen the people constantly expecting the price drop to come in October, aka Halo Month. That's my point, nothing more or less. It wasn't unexpected by any real stretch, and people guessing the date/amount was debated for months before October, with quite a few people saying an announcement during PGW wouldn't make sense.
Nope. I said the month will be close shortly after the PS4's drop was announced.
Primethius
Banned
Speaking of price drop predictions, CosmicQueso, you totally lost that avatar bet. I need a hashtag of #birthers on your avatar.
What the hell does this have to do with Bgamer?
What a load of bullshit either show these posts that you claim exist or lay off. He's been completely reasonable with everything he has stated here and previously. Just because other people haven't been doesn't mean you should assume he hasn't. Either prove it or lay off.
There's waaaay better deals bound to pop up as the month goes on.
Right so some people saying PGW would be too late means an early October announce my was expected. That doesn't make any sense. The vast majority of people were not expecting an official price drop to occur at the start of October.
Regardless of this I dint understand why the level of expectedness is such an important point. Why the hell does it even matter? The important part is that price drop happened and it happened at the beginning of the month which means it impacted the full 4 weeks of tracking this potentially giving the PS4 the sales bump it needed to take the month. Just like Bgamer said.
No doubt but it's still pretty good. Wasn't the Xbox One available for like $329 on Black Friday?
If you revisit the price drop thread the one thing you won't see is people suprised. I'm not really trying to debate anything, dunno why you're being so grumpy.
"Why the hell does it even matter", jeeze man, why post anything on Neogaf then? It's just discussion.
Also MN just posted about Best Buy having a deal. You can get the tomb raider bundle, any $60 game( example: madden AC Halo) and a $50 gift card for $399
That's essentially $289
In UK, Halo 5 has sold 150,000 first week, only a bit more than Titanfall ( 125,000 ) and Destiny ( 144,000 ) for XB1.
In ths US, in 4 weeks, Titanfall has sold 1 million (with bundle, without, 865,000 ), and Destiny for XB1 has sold 910,000.
Both sold those numbers in 4 weeks. IN 4 WEEKS.
If we will see a similar trend in the US... of course the thing can be difference, but IF we will see a similar trend...
In one week, Halo 5 will sell barely over 1 million. Maybe less.
In ths US, in 4 weeks, Titanfall has sold 1 million (with bundle, without, 865,000 ), and Destiny for XB1 has sold 910,000.
Both sold those numbers in 4 weeks. IN 4 WEEKS.
If we will see a similar trend in the US... of course the thing can be difference, but IF we will see a similar trend...
In one week, Halo 5 will sell barely over 1 million. Maybe less.
Amazon monthly has updated again.
Uncharted bundle is at 19 and Halo bundle at 25.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-10/videogames?tag=viglink20241-20
Dunno if it's the final update for October (probably it is).
At this point I'm leaning towards a small PS4 victory for the month but I'll post predictions later.
Uncharted bundle is at 19 and Halo bundle at 25.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-10/videogames?tag=viglink20241-20
Dunno if it's the final update for October (probably it is).
At this point I'm leaning towards a small PS4 victory for the month but I'll post predictions later.
3rdamention
Member
One thing I have learned in this thread is RexNovis has BGamer's back. Man, BGamer may owe RexNovis a beer with as much as he has defended him!
OT: NPD is definitely going to be fun this month. These Amazon monthly charts appeared to shock and awe some people, so it makes for some fun reading.
OT: NPD is definitely going to be fun this month. These Amazon monthly charts appeared to shock and awe some people, so it makes for some fun reading.
your not taking into acct the larger install base. It's about double what it was when titanfall launched and a few million more since destiny
Primethius
Banned
It really has nothing to do with having someone's back so much as people reading into stuff that wasn't there to begin with.
That's also true for the UK market and we see how retail sales panned out for that in its first week.
Eh, the U.K. Has sense a lot less growth than the US. Titanfall did almost a mill on what, like 4 or so million xboxs. 8 million consoles should do at least 1.5 easily
I'm not expecting it to do like 3 million or whatever in the first week. Maybe by the end of november
Primethius
Banned
Uhh... pretty sure that's about half of what a Halo title typically does. And in line with what we've seen in the UK.
It does make a difference because 1 country is selling the console much faster than the other so why would using the same logic be useful.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
So, UC4 will indeed outsell Halo 5, I think.
piccio_ssl
Member
U4 will be the biggest ND game sales wise for sure
Dunno bout that.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
In uk and ww it has a chance . In US i don't think so...
I only use my time-travel powers to speedy up pizza deliveries.
IT could. As far as userbase goes the PS4 will be at about 38 million shipped by the time UC4 comes out. Lots of people who own PS4's haven't played the Uncharted series and it's launching in a relatively quiet month.
I think it launching in March will do wonders for the game.
It's only surprising to Xbox fans who still think halo is relevant. It is no longer the franchise it once was.
2 mil still seems like a realistic estimate for the U.S.
As I said in the TGS thread, announcing a price drop at PGW would have been the dumbest price drop announcement in history, yet people were still making it. Why would they drop the price after Halo 5 has already launched?
I predicted they'll announce the price drop at TGS effective on Uncharted's launch day, I was half right, the price drop was effective on UC's launch day, but it was announced only days earlier.
It's still relevant. It's just not as relevant as it was before Modern Warfare's boom.