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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

P

Primethius

Banned
Javin98 said:
That's okay. Out of ten people who bought Halo 5, 9 of them bought it digitally while only one bought it physically, so even if it sells 900K in the US, the total is 9 million, since NPD doesn't track digital sales. ;)
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9 million sales on an 8 million console?

Halo saves console gaming!
 
Begaria

Begaria

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Saw that earlier. Surprised that they can show Call of Duty like that due to Sony's deal.
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It hasn't stopped either Sony or Microsoft from throwing in free versions of games the other has a deal with. Microsoft has done it with Destiny, Sony did it with Madden this year...it goes back and forth.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Begaria said:
It hasn't stopped either Sony or Microsoft from throwing in free versions of games the other has a deal with. Microsoft has done it with Destiny, Sony did it with Madden this year...it goes back and forth.
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Yeah, MS has done free game deals in the past (it's pretty much expected now whenever the PS4 has a bundle) but official ads announcing the deal have never shown the game that the deal is in response to (at least from what I can remember).
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
blakep267 said:
It looks like the Xbox will have an artificial CoD bundle( offering a free game at various places this weekend. GameStop, Best Buy etc)

http://majornelson.com/2015/11/03/b...-get-an-additional-game-free/?linkId=18473943
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All these deals start to look like the good old firesale mentality from last year again. They started so well behaved with announcing all the bundles with solid, elevated pricing, just to slowly drift into "we have to do something"-territory. Didn't a lot of people say that MS wants to keep margins up?
But hey, as the old saying here goes: Competition is good for the consumer.
 
J

jbluzb

Member
Primethius said:
About 8.1 million. 1 million would be low for a launch given that Halo historically launches with about 3 million sales in the opening month.

That's quite a drastic drop off.
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I feel without the 1 million PR it is even lower than that. Different times we live in. Did not expect this to happen last month. Early this year it really looks like halo 5 will deliver and move consoles but look where we are right now, debating and even confuse who will win october. Even the halo 5 1 million milestone software sales in uncertain.
 
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Boke1879

Member
slavesnyder said:
All these deals start to look like the good old firesale mentality from last year again. They started so well behaved with announcing all the bundles with solid, elevated pricing, just to slowly drift into "we have to do something"-territory. Didn't a lot of people say that MS wants to keep margins up?
But hey, as the old saying here goes: Competition is good for the consumer.
Click to expand...

Eh this is just them offering a free game with any Xbox purchase. They've done it all year when Sony has had a marketing deal.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
If MS doesn't say anything about Halo 5's launch this week in a blog post (or whatever) then I would assume that they are saving it for their NPD message.

If they have to save it for their NPD message, then that would also make me assume that the PS4 won October since Halo stats would be an attempt to hide the Xbox One not being the #1 for October.

I pretty much have my predictions set for Sony winning or MS winning. Simply waiting to see if MS will state anything before the week is over (which will determine which prediction I'll go with).
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
If MS doesn't say anything about Halo 5's launch this week in a blog post (or whatever) then I would assume that they are saving it for their NPD message.

If they have to save it for their NPD message, then that would also make me assume that the PS4 won October since Halo stats would be an attempt to hide the Xbox One not being the #1 for October.

I pretty much have my prediction set for if I feel Sony will win or if I feel MS will win. Simply waiting to see if MS will state anything before the week is over.
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This is a pretty good observation and I think almost exactly how it'll play out.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Bgamer90 said:
If MS doesn't say anything about Halo 5's launch this week in a blog post (or whatever) then I would assume that they are saving it for their NPD message.

If they have to save it for their NPD message, then that would also make me assume that the PS4 won October since Halo stats would be an attempt to hide the Xbox One not being the #1 for October.
Click to expand...
They don't know NPD numbers in advance either, do they?
 
E

Elios83

Member
Bgamer90 said:
If MS doesn't say anything about Halo 5's launch this week in a blog post (or whatever) then I would assume that they are saving it for their NPD message.

If they have to save it for their NPD message, then that would also make me assume that the PS4 won October since Halo stats would be an attempt to hide the Xbox One not being the #1 for October.

I pretty much have my prediction set for if I feel Sony will win or if I feel MS will win. Simply waiting to see if MS will state anything before the week is over.
Click to expand...

Game has underperfomed compared to previous mainline titles in the series.
There's nothing to brag about.
I guess hardware sales for the month will be really close whoever comes out on top, probably both around the 400k mark.
The promotions they are making and announcing throughout November confirm that there won't be an official 50$ holiday price cut like last year but ad hoc deals with different retailers.

At this point the only shocking thing would be if AC:Syndicate on all platforms outsold Halo 5 for the month like it happened in the UK.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Elios83 said:
Game has underperfomed compared to previous mainline titles in the series.
There's nothing to brag about.
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It doing worse than some previous Halo games (which was expected months ago) doesn't mean that game didn't do well and/or that there's nothing to brag about.

Elios83 said:
I guess hardware sales for the month will be really close whoever comes out on top, probably both around the 400k mark.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm thinking the same.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Boke1879 said:
Eh this is just them offering a free game with any Xbox purchase. They've done it all year when Sony has had a marketing deal.
Click to expand...
And there are alot of deals like extra controller or so listed, too.
In the end they reduce margin through giving away stuff for free on top.
Sony does Console + bundled game COD, MS does Console + bundled game + another one.

Black friday will be so much fun (except for Abdiel maybe).
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
slavesnyder said:
They don't know NPD numbers in advance either, do they?
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Well, last year before October NPD was out, Phil Scencer has confirmed that XB1 was the best selling console the last week of October, and has more than tripled the sales the first week of November...

That's mean he knew what the PS4 sales was before the NPD was out.
 
E

Elios83

Member
Bgamer90 said:
It doing worse than some previous Halo games (which was expected months ago) doesn't mean that game didn't do well and/or that there's nothing to brag about.
Click to expand...

No one is saying it didn't do well in absolute terms.
But we're talking about making an official announcement with a press release and you do that when you can brag about growth, setting new records and such.
Not when you've done worse than in the past.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
slavesnyder said:
And there are alot of deals like extra controller or so listed, too.
In the end they reduce margin through giving away stuff for free on top.
Sony does Console + bundled game COD, MS does Console + bundled game + another one.

Black friday will be so much fun (except for Abdiel maybe).
Click to expand...

Abdiel is going to get swamped :( but yes BF should be fun.

I really don't want much that day. Just a few games. I work on Thanksgiving and BF usually starts around 5pm on that day now. So I'll be off around 3pm. I'll do the rounds and go to Target, Walmart, Best Buy and hit up Gamestop just to see what's up.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
It doing worse than some previous Halo games (which was expected months ago) doesn't mean that game didn't do well and/or that there's nothing to brag about.



Yeah, I'm thinking the same.
Click to expand...
If it had done great, or even very good, we would have had $ figures thrown in (probably not unit sold) by now. It's close of office hours in Cali right now, and the only PR we had is a Nelson message "You can get your COD with us too!".

Now, is it downright terrible or good enough to be a beacon in a lost NPD as you say?... We'll have to wait for the 10th to know.

PS: I sortof expect Sony to do the same with Fallout4 btw, but maybe they won't care.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Bgamer90 said:
It doing worse than some previous Halo games (which was expected months ago) doesn't mean that game didn't do well and/or that there's nothing to brag about.
Click to expand...

In UK, Halo 5 did worse than every other Halo entry except got the First halo (not counting MCC or Halo: CEA for obvious reasons). However I think it will do better in US, +2m is my guess (for retail).
 
H

Hoo-doo

Banned
Ryng_Tolu said:
Hey guys!
What if Gears of War will become bigger than Halo this gen?

It's looks like there is a chance at this point... i honestly hope so, i like both games, but Gears of War is my second
Guess who is the first :p
favourite TPS of all times. :D
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Gears of War will have a good shot to suffer the exact same fatigue as Halo is currently enjoying.
An IP handled by developers that had no part in it's previous success trying desperately to recapture the magic.
Stray too far from the formula and fans will eat you alive, create a safe and samey sequel and critics and fans will roast you as well. Sucks to be The Coalition.
 
The Mad Draklor

The Mad Draklor

Member
Hoo-doo said:
Gears of War will have a good shot to suffer the exact same fatigue as Halo is currently enjoying.
An IP handled by developers that had no part in it's previous success trying desperately to recapture the magic.
Stray too far from the formula and fans will eat you alive, create a safe and samey sequel and critics and fans will roast you as well. Sucks to be The Coalition.
Click to expand...

And I was curious about their new IP when they were still Blacktusk Studios =/
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Boke1879 said:
Abdiel is going to get swamped :( but yes BF should be fun.

I really don't want much that day. Just a few games. I work on Thanksgiving and BF usually starts around 5pm on that day now. So I'll be off around 3pm. I'll do the rounds and go to Target, Walmart, Best Buy and hit up Gamestop just to see what's up.
Click to expand...

Sigh.

It's going to be so bad.

(Rubs temples)
 
R

Ricky_R

Member
Bgamer90 said:
If MS doesn't say anything about Halo 5's launch this week in a blog post (or whatever) then I would assume that they are saving it for their NPD message.

If they have to save it for their NPD message, then that would also make me assume that the PS4 won October since Halo stats would be an attempt to hide the Xbox One not being the #1 for October.

I pretty much have my predictions set for Sony winning or MS winning. Simply waiting to see if MS will state anything before the week is over (which will determine which prediction I'll go with).
Click to expand...

Dude, just put the PS4 first and get it over with.
 
G

GnawtyDog

Banned
slavesnyder said:
All these deals start to look like the good old firesale mentality from last year again. They started so well behaved with announcing all the bundles with solid, elevated pricing, just to slowly drift into "we have to do something"-territory. Didn't a lot of people say that MS wants to keep margins up?
But hey, as the old saying here goes: Competition is good for the consumer.
Click to expand...

Heh...Halo and Tomb Raider are nice to have, notwithstanding the sweetener that is Fallout 4 marketing but price parity and COD+Star Wars marketing are much much nicer to have for Sony. Like Gopher_D alluded (might he rest in peace)- it's bigger than Halo.

MS wants to see a YoY increase this month and the next (PR wise at least) and that's not going to happen this holiday unless they drop price. Adding value is the next best alternative.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
No PR, huh?

I don't think the numbers are bad. I just don't think they are noteworthy. I think they are probably okay or decent numbers (relative to Halo) and it would serve MS no purpose to speak on them.
 
I

Isurus

Member
I'm honestly surprised we've heard nothing on Halo sales. I expected it to do well and it seems like everyone on my friends list is playing; more so than I've ever seen for a new game launch. Puzzling. I'll be disappointed if it did poorly, as I'm a big fan.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
The trouble is that any PR announcement can immediately be compared to PR announcements of their previous games.

And the trouble with that is that, even with very successful numbers it will be easy for a downwards trend narrative to really gain traction after that.

Unless US sales have been an absolute surprise, best to stay quiet, I think. I'd do the same. Roll that out together with NPD results.


Isurus said:
I'm honestly surprised we've heard nothing on Halo sales. I expected it to do well and it seems like everyone on my friends list is playing; more so than I've ever seen for a new game launch. Puzzling. I'll be disappointed if it did poorly, as I'm a big fan.
Click to expand...

There's no chance it did poorly per se. The only question is how well relative to the IP and other major successes of the past few years.
 
Ghost_Messiah

Ghost_Messiah

Member
hawk2025 said:
The trouble is that any PR announcement can immediately be compared to PR announcements of their previous games.

And the trouble with that is that, even with very successful numbers it will be easy for a downwards trend narrative to really gain traction after that.
Click to expand...

Precisely. A positive statement from MS about Halo 5 could easily evolve in to negative sentiment about the Xbox One within minutes and spread like wildfire. However they phrase their announcement I can see the "Halo 5 launch the weakest launch ever for the series" headlines now. The press won't be a carbon copy of MS' announcement. It'll be a more accurate translation of the real news which by the looks of it is negative for Xbox. MS are better off staying quiet if they don't have anything super positive and impressive to announce.

There's just a high chance the underwhelming and disappointing news would backfire regardless of how hard they spin it.
 
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