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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Mikey Jr.
Member
I predict 150 pages minimum ( just like Titanfall month ).
Ohh man, that ps4 win in March was fucking crazy. That was the first sign xb1 was in real trouble.
With no MS north America PR, I am predicting 550,000 to 650,000 sales for Halo 5 October NPD.
I will also edit my prediction to reflect current PR hype. It looks like it did not create any sort of hardware or software push as I would expect from the lead franchise of xbox one.
I will also edit my prediction to reflect current PR hype. It looks like it did not create any sort of hardware or software push as I would expect from the lead franchise of xbox one.
Nightengale
Member
Wait, software sales!? No effing way.
No way will be that low.
Nightengale
Member
Even at the the low end of the most pessimistic guesses, it's easily >1 million.
Heck,I'm personally thinking 2 million, which would be disappointing compared to other Halo openings.
Heck,I'm personally thinking 2 million, which would be disappointing compared to other Halo openings.
I just don't get the broken logic of "it's not selling at the record pace of PS4, it must be in trouble". The XBone is selling at a better rate than the 360 over the same period... where's real trouble?
That woud be shockingly low tbh. Heck 1m would be very low too.
The lack of any figure (even purely $$) makes me ponder, but it's got to be in the 1,5-2m range minimum I would expect.
I mean, it might not have had the push of Halo3 and its $40m marketing campaign, but it still had a big campaign around its launch ("Hunt the truth", TWD adverts, theater AMC pre show, Open beta, etc).
Actually -if you exclude holidays- it has fallen behind the 360 even in the US. This Holiday period wil be crucial to see just how the XB1 performs vs 360.
When is he ever NOT happy though
That's nota great indicator
That ~2/3 of its sales come from 2 markets, and any inroads MS made into Europe during the 360 era are pretty much gone outside of the UK.
Couple that with absolutely zero engagement with emerging markets in the ME & Asia (although it is doing ok in Central & South America) and the chances for any future Xbox series consoles having global appeal diminishes every month.
Sony spent a decade building support in Europe, and it kept PlayStation going during the PS3 era. MS has no such base outside of NA, and that situation has become worse.
Dude, I was joking.
Haha, I'm sorry then. My sarcasm detector is poor after what I've seen these past few months/years.
I would like to share some insights on PS efforts in SEA, I live in a 3rd world country where it cost 1 month and a half month minimum wage salary to buy a PS4. Games cost about 1/3 of your salary.
PS has proven the power of localization, the ps blog is localized to all major Asian languages, together with games support in local languages.
This is something that does not exist in the xbox ecosystem. A decline in only the 2 major markets where it sells is dangerous for a platform. Nintendo has better global support than xbox because nintendo maintained core support of their fanbase albeit also on decline.
A critique on the MS PR strategy of "building/developing 1st party games/exclusives." This strategy worked on the PS3 because of worldwide support. As reflected in NA NPD a lead of only 800k++ but compared worldwide a lead of maybe 15 million. It is staggering if we put this context. As the sales decline of Japan & parity of US sales; support comes from Asia (excl. japan) and Mainland Europe.
Katana_Strikes
Member
Could be 300 pages if sales are that low. Which I think unless something went dramatically wrong somewhere, it's highly improbable to be that low. I'm expecting in the ball park of 1.5m, lower but be pretty terrible and higher would be decent enough all things considered. But no PR makes me irk towards lower than higher.
No way, man, Microsoft would probably lay off a shitload of people or maybe even dissolve 343i if Halo 5 sold only that much in its biggest market by far. The bare minimum I would say it sold is 1.2 million for October NPD.
SMOK3Y
Generous Member
A decade? Sony have built support since PS1 started only place it Sony floundered since the PS1 era is US & UK other than that its always been supported
Omnistalgic
Member
Cuz that's pretty much PR talk you are echoing. MS had to do a firesale last year just to keep up, x360 started off slow and blew up in sales at different times, and had a better worldwide presence. In trouble to be discontinued? No. But next Gen for MS could be drastically different.
You do realize that out of the Wii ps3 and and 360 that the 360 started off the slowest right. I would also tell that 3DS also started faster the the DS but if you looked at the quarter to quarter trends you would know that it stopped keeping pace with the 360 and will most likely fall behind next year.
X1 isn't doomed but things aren't Rosy either. I don't get people ignoring all evidence though that sales aren't what MS expected hence all the sales since launch.
wapplew
Member
Too low for Halo. I guess 2.8m, it's lower then usual Halo because only track 5 days instead of 10 plus days.
Meltdowns would be hilarious but no chance in hell this happens.
I'm guessing at least >1.5m on NPD charts. The people who own XB1's already will by this game in droves even if there is a drop compared to other Halo launches.
Right, I'm sure MS cut the entry price by $150 within a year out of the goodness of their hearts.
That would be awful, no way Halo does that bad, I'm almost positive it did better than that, ~600k in North America for Halo with how irrelevant the franchise is WW means the death of the franchise. Despite the doom & gloom in the recent Halo sales threads, I still think it can sell ~5 million LTD, even if it debuts selling half as much as the typical Halo. While 5 million might be bad for Halo, most franchises would be happy to sell 5 million.
Didn't the collection sell 5 million? It should easily pass that.
I have to disagree with you -- the logic is actually sound. When people say the One or Xbox brand is in trouble, they're talking about NPD results and everything else around the product. The Xbox 360 dominated the PS3 in NPDs, found an audience in Europe, and sold over a million consoles in Japan. The Xbox One's performance -- losing to the competitor in all regions, selling great in NA, selling horribly in Europe, selling horrifically in Japan -- is the reason why people will frequently question the health of the Xbox One and the Xbox brand as a whole.
Then you factor in the 360 had RROD and the One doesn't, the 360 didn't need price cuts in the US to stay alive and the One needs multiple cuts to prevent absolutely horrific sales, Halo was a huge deal on 360 and it's now looking like it will struggle to hit 5 million on the One, Kinect made the 360 more valuable and it's now made the One less valuable, publishers were falling over themselves to give exclusive content to Microsoft and they're now jumping as fast as they can from exclusive deals with Microsoft (e.g. Square Enix), Microsoft would announce 360 sales figures in their reports and they're now focusing on bullets fired and the amount of times the family dog accidentally brushed against the side of the console, etc.
At a certain point, you have to realize that thanks to the Xbox One, the Xbox hardware business isn't making a whole lot of sense to Microsoft. That's a pretty good reason to be concerned about the One and Xbox brand.
mejin
Member
It'd be insane if true. It's too low man.
With heavy bundling, I expect Halo 5 to pass that without heavy bundling, more if it's heavily bundled within the next year.
My numbers will be changing too...even tho I already penciled in PS4 as the winner. Waiting to here about more Halo 5 info.
I mean is a price cut really enough to give it the edge vs Halo 5?
And at a Walmart that just opened in DC, talking to employees the store wasnt ready for Halloween so they had no costumes but lots of extra candy. Going there yesterday....they are ready for Black Friday tho....saw them putting up Halo 5 material. Saw some XBO consoles too. I didnt look for PS4 but they did have some PS3's out.
I mean is a price cut really enough to give it the edge vs Halo 5?
And at a Walmart that just opened in DC, talking to employees the store wasnt ready for Halloween so they had no costumes but lots of extra candy. Going there yesterday....they are ready for Black Friday tho....saw them putting up Halo 5 material. Saw some XBO consoles too. I didnt look for PS4 but they did have some PS3's out.
Actually, Sony's been building their brand in Europe since the original Playstation.
That's over two decades of brand recognition.
2.8m would be imo a top end estimate, as with the high priced editions and DLC that would translate into a very high $$ 1st week sales, which I think we would have seen some PR about.
But we'll see.
Thankfully, this month we won't have to wait as long as the September results for NPD.
Crimson_Gold
Member
3DS] 84k
[PS4] 483k
[WIU] 61k
[XB1] 471k
[PS4] 483k
[WIU] 61k
[XB1] 471k
That's true, PS3 trounced the 360 in Europe despite all the advantages the 360 had (early launch, price, better ports). At this point I think not being named "Playstation" in Europe is an automatic loss, not even the Wii could sell better than the PS3 in Europe.
yeah it will be 900k without bundles
piccio_ssl
Member
no way
yeah im out of touch when it comes us sales
Kenzodielocke
Banned
I want to say one thing regarding Wii U and attach rates.
Of course they're high. It's not like Wii U owners have a lot of options. Splatoon, I am sure it's a great game, is doing so well, because there is literally no tps on that console.
Of course they're high. It's not like Wii U owners have a lot of options. Splatoon, I am sure it's a great game, is doing so well, because there is literally no tps on that console.
That would mean that a little over 10% of the Us Xbox population would've bought the game in the first week. The marquee game in the biggest market is going to do more than that
In UK the attach rate was a bit more than 8%.
Chobel
Member
You're really underestimating Halo franchise.
Chobel
Member
DAMN!
Omnistalgic
Member
The fook does that mean? Translation plz..
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
... And how many did it sell?
There's a shock coming.
There's a shock coming.
So according to MS PR Halo 5 was "the highest week one attach rate for a Microsoft first party title on Xbox One." It's hard to believe they could actually fit that many qualifiers in a single sentence. And combining hardware and software sales into a single number in order to say it's the biggest Halo launch? Genius. MS truly are the kings of spin.
slavesnyder
Member
So many numbers - and not a single one of relevance.
The 8-Bit Raider
Member
Yes but what does it all mean?
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Clever. One bundle as "500 USD in Halo hardware sales." We really need dome hard numbers...
Honestly, Microsoft's PR is amazing. Biggest launch of Halo in history? The key is to reveal little info when sales are relatively low. Well, at least we got PR from them. Still, this sounds more like damage control, so I'm still leaning towards a PS4 win in October, I think.
Well, at least we got PR from them. Still, this sounds more like damage control, so I'm still leaning towards a PS4 win in October, I think.