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[Katana_Strikes]

While I'm sure Sony would have really wanted Uncharted launching before Xmas, I think them delaying it is actually going to hurt TR more, because now there's no battle of the games anymore. MS obviously wanted it to be their Uncharted to take Uncharted head-on itself. But there's going to be no PR headlines to drum up exposure, like TR vs Uncharted; Who'll win? or TR scores higher than Uncharted etc. to push it in to consumers minds.

Though I don't think it helps MS marketing for TR seems like an afterthought and they don't seem to really care that much for it anymore. Sales will be very interesting for that title and there will be a lot of red faces if it doesn't perform. Which in all honesty as it gets closer to launch (next week right?) and it's competition around the time, the less confidence I feel about it doing even merely ok (which is my current expectation).

 

[Alo0oy]

Week 47 was third week halo 4 was out.

Going by your definition every XB1 game not COD or Fifa must be irrelevant. Halo is still the biggest Xbox exclusive and will be stronger than TR (which wouldn't wonder me if it didn't even chart in the top 5). Let's not pretend TR will somehow be more important to Xbox than Halo. Especially with Fallout releasing on the same week (And ironically getting more xbox marketing than TR and H5 combined).

PAL charts are a week late, only UK and Germany are up to date. So week 47 in this case is week 46 for every chart.

I don't know how Rise will sell on Xbox One because the Tomb Raider fanbase in Europe isn't on Xbox, but the reboot sold significantly better than any Xbox exclusive in Europe last gen, we're comparing the strength of the IP, not the strength of the IP on Xbox.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

While I'm sure Sony would have really wanted Uncharted launching before Xmas, I think them delaying it is actually going to hurt TR more, because now there's no battle of the games anymore. MS obviously wanted it to be their Uncharted to take Uncharted head-on itself. But there's going to be no PR headlines to drum up exposure, like TR vs Uncharted; Who'll win? or TR scores higher than Uncharted etc. to push it in to consumers minds.

Though I don't think it helps MS marketing for TR seems like an afterthought and they don't seem to really care that much for it anymore. Sales will be very interesting for that title and there will be a lot of red faces if it doesn't perform. Which in all honesty as it gets closer to launch (next week right?) and it's competition around the time, the less confidence I feel about it doing even merely ok (which is my current expectation).

I honestly think Uncharted 4 is better off releasing in March. It will the biggest game of the first half of 2016 by far as opposed to being maybe Top 5 this Fall. Of course I would rather play it now.

 

[Xando]

I don't know how Rise will sell on Xbox One because the Tomb Raider fanbase in Europe isn't on Xbox, but the reboot sold significantly better than any Xbox exclusive in Europe last gen, we're comparing the strength of the IP, not the strength of the IP on Xbox.

The reboot released on 3 plattforms of course it sold better than a game that released on 1 plattform. The only thing that matters is the strength of the IP on Xbox since the other versions are months away. Rise of the Tomb Raider won't come close to anywhere near the strength the reboot had since it's on the wrong plattform and releasing in a time where other games have the spotlight.

Without marketing most of the casual audience will not even know about it because all of their friends are playing on PS4/PC.

 

[OléGunner]

While I'm sure Sony would have really wanted Uncharted launching before Xmas, I think them delaying it is actually going to hurt TR more, because now there's no battle of the games anymore. MS obviously wanted it to be their Uncharted to take Uncharted head-on itself. But there's going to be no PR headlines to drum up exposure, like TR vs Uncharted; Who'll win? or TR scores higher than Uncharted etc. to push it in to consumers minds.

Though I don't think it helps MS marketing for TR seems like an afterthought and they don't seem to really care that much for it anymore. Sales will be very interesting for that title and there will be a lot of red faces if it doesn't perform. Which in all honesty as it gets closer to launch (next week right?) and it's competition around the time, the less confidence I feel about it doing even merely ok (which is my current expectation).

I'd agree with those sentiments. Seems like MS just needed something to go against Uncharted 4 and drive up the versus narrative. At the same time, it's a nice feather in the cap for their software library I can't deny that.

On the whole though, CD have likely partially damaged the TR brand going forward if you ask me. I see it debuting in positions 8-10 on the November NPD.
I saw that Mary Kish lady on Gamespot's The Lobby gleefully exclaiming how XB1 needed this exclusive to finally secure a "win". I was thinking uhhh what kind of win exactly??

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I'd agree with those sentiments. Seems like MS just needed something to go against Uncharted 4 and drive up the versus narrative. At the same time, it's a nice feather in the cap for their software library I can't deny that.

On the whole though, CD have likely partially damaged the TR brand going forward if you ask me. I see it debuting in positions 8-10 on the November NPD.

It is definitely damaged for me going forward and I had just become a fan again thanks to the reboot. I do think it is weird for you to place the responsibility solely on CD when Square Enix has the final say.

 

[Alo0oy]

The reboot released on 3 plattforms of course it sold better than a game that released on 1 plattform. The only thing that matters is the strength of the IP on Xbox since the other versions are months away. Rise of the Tomb Raider won't come close to anywhere near the strength the reboot had since it's on the wrong plattform and releasing in a time where other games have the spotlight.

Without marketing most of the casual audience will not even know about it because all of their friends are playing on PS4/PC.

We're judging the strength of the IP to assess if it's going to move hardware for Xbox, the IP doesn't exist in a vacuum, if Gran Turismo Sport is exclusive to Xbox, we don't say it's going to bomb because the IP doesn't exist on Xbox, we say the game is going to sell the hardware, same thing with other Euro-centric franchises with minimal or no presence on Xbox.

 

[OléGunner]

It is definitely damaged for me going forward and I had just become a fan again thanks to the reboot. I do think it is weird for you to place the responsibility solely on CD when Square Enix has the final say.

Yes apologies! I should have specified Square Enix as CD likely had no control of the arrangement.

Shame that some fans will be shafted until early next year/fall 2016.
Funnily enough I didn't enjoy the reboot really so was happy in a sense that they secured a franchise I don't really care about.

 

[blakep267]

Tomb raider should be able to chart this November. Last year all it took was 500-600k or so to get the bottom spots

Not in any particular order but

Battlefront
COD
Fallout 4
Halo
Nba 2k
Madden


Then you have Tomb raider, assassins creed, sky landers,maybe yokai watch, GTA , minecraft

 

[samar11]

NPD theme song

October - December

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5exsScaHWo

 

[Katana_Strikes]

Tomb raider should be able to chart this November. Last year all it took was 500-600k or so to get the bottom spots

Not in any particular order but

Battlefront
COD
Fallout 4
Halo
Nba 2k
Madden


Then you have Tomb raider, assassins creed, sky landers,maybe yokai watch, GTA , minecraft

I don't believe for a moment TR can achieve 500-600k on one platform.

 

[stryke]

I don't believe for a moment TR can achieve 500-600k on one platform.

Indeed, it took 360 and PS3 to get that high.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I don't believe for a moment TR can achieve 500-600k on one platform.

Yeah that is extremely optimistic.

 

[Welfare]

I don't believe for a moment TR can achieve 500-600k on one platform.

Don't forget it's going to release on the One and 360.

 

[Alo0oy]

Tomb raider should be able to chart this November. Last year all it took was 500-600k or so to get the bottom spots

Not in any particular order but

Battlefront
COD
Fallout 4
Halo
Nba 2k
Madden


Then you have Tomb raider, assassins creed, sky landers,maybe yokai watch, GTA , minecraft

Good luck even selling 400k for Tomb Raider.

 

[Chobel]

But I think not expecting it to make the top 10 is kind of insane. Are there 10 individual skus you can name that would get ahead of it?

CoD, Halo 5, Fallout 4, Battlefront, Madden, NBA 2K16 and Yo-Kai Watch are surely gonna sell more than TR2. Then we have ACS which has a chance to outsell TR2. So that's 8, we're still missing two, but I can't think of any more games.

 

[Alo0oy]

CoD, Halo 5, Fallout 4, Battlefront, Madden, NBA 2K16 and Yo-Kai Watch are surely gonna sell more than TR2. Then we have ACS which has a chance to outsell TR2. So that's 8, we're still missing two, but I can't think of any more games.

Minecraft, GTA, Skylanders, Disney Infiniti and FIFA.

You-kai Watch won't chart lol.

 

[Welfare]

CoD, Halo 5, Fallout 4, Battlefront, Madden, NBA 2K16 and Yo-Kai Watch are surely gonna sell more than TR2. Then we have ACS which has a chance to outsell TR2. So that's 8, we're still missing two, but I can't think of any more games.

GTAV and probably Minecraft.

 

[blakep267]

Good luck even selling 400k for Tomb Raider.

400k isn't alot at all. Plus it's November which has tons of buy 1 get 1 deals and Black Friday is around the corner.

Minecraft, GTA, Skylanders, Disney Infiniti and FIFA.

You-kai Watch won't chart lol.

You think FIFA is gonna sell that much in the US and 2 months after launch?

And I don't know about Disney infinity. It didn't set the charts on fire

 

[Sterok]

People are optimistic about Yokai? I want to be, but I can't see a new 3DS exclusive IP charting in a very competitive November, no matter how few other options the kids market has this year.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

Don't forget it's going to release on the One and 360.

I did forget about the 360 version, but do you really expect that version to sell a significant amount?

 

[Welfare]

I did forget about the 360 version, but do you really expect that version to sell a significant amount?

I don't. Just pointing out that there will be 2 versions.

 

[Alo0oy]

400k isn't alot at all. Plus it's November which has tons of buy 1 get 1 deals and Black Friday is around the corner.

The IP just isn't strong in the US, the reboot barely did better as a multiplatform title without anywhere near the competition it has this year

You think FIFA is gonna sell that much in the US and 2 months after launch?

And I don't know about Disney infinity. It didn't set the charts on fire

FIFA was one of the best selling games on NPD last year, I don't expect it to chart in November, but don't expect You-kai Watch or Tomb Raider to chart over it.

 

[jbluzb]

November is a definite ps4 win. Only october is in contention. However as per ms pr, sony also won october.

 

[Plague Doctor]

Who does everyone think will be the biggest winner over 2015 Holiday season? I am thinking depending on the reception of the movie, Battlefront might blow everything out of the water. I mean the hype is almost electric for all things Star Wars and if the movie turns out to be embraced, it would possibly lead into a rush on the games.

 

[Alo0oy]

Last year's top 10 in November:

1.) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (360, XBO, PS4, PS3, PC)
2.) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
3.) Super Smash Bros. (NWU, 3DS)
4.) Madden NFL 15 (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
5.) Assassin's Creed: Unity (PS4, XBO, PC)
6.) Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
7.) Far Cry 4 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3, PC)
8.) Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS)
9.) NBA 2K15 (PS4, 360, XBO, PS3, PC)
10.) Halo: The Master Chief Collection (XBO)

 

[jbluzb]

Who does everyone think will be the biggest winner over 2015 Holiday season? I am thinking depending on the reception of the movie, Battlefront might blow everything out of the water. I mean the hype is almost electric for all things Star Wars and if the movie turns out to be embraced, it would possibly lead into a rush on the games.

Call of duty will still win. Battlefront will be judged on the stability of the pvp.

 

[jroc74]

Who does everyone think will be the biggest winner over 2015 Holiday season? I am thinking depending on the reception of the movie, Battlefront might blow everything out of the water. I mean the hype is almost electric for all things Star Wars and if the movie turns out to be embraced, it would possibly lead into a rush on the games.

Just going off my anecdotal evidence about Halloween costumes this year in my area.....Battlefront will be huge..

 

[ethomaz]

Here

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=184000796&highlight=#post184000796

Thanks.

I'm a bit suspicious but looks like they are including hardware in Halo 5 revenue too.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

Who does everyone think will be the biggest winner over 2015 Holiday season? I am thinking depending on the reception of the movie, Battlefront might blow everything out of the water. I mean the hype is almost electric for all things Star Wars and if the movie turns out to be embraced, it would possibly lead into a rush on the games.

COD

 

[Alo0oy]

Who does everyone think will be the biggest winner over 2015 Holiday season? I am thinking depending on the reception of the movie, Battlefront might blow everything out of the water. I mean the hype is almost electric for all things Star Wars and if the movie turns out to be embraced, it would possibly lead into a rush on the games.

Battlefront won't sell anywhere near Call of Duty. EA expects Battlefront to sell 13 million, to put it in perspective, if Call of Duty sells 13 million it will be considered a bomb and the worst selling Call of Duty since Call of Duty 3 (before it got big with Modern Warfare).

 

[stryke]

dug up debut month numbers for TR 2013

tr: 360 54%, ps3 46%

600k < gowj < gowa < tr, but the diff between each other is less than 10k

 

[Plague Doctor]

Battlefront won't sell anywhere near Call of Duty. EA expects Battlefront to sell 13 million, to put it in perspective, if Call of Duty sells 13 million it will be considered a bomb and the worst selling Call of Duty since Call of Duty 3 (before it got big with Modern Warfare).

Damn! If that's the case, I will not doubt the power of COD.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

dug up debut month numbers for TR 2013

And the numbers are still shockingly close considering how the 360 completely dominated the PS3 in the U.S.

 

[allan-bh]

Who does everyone think will be the biggest winner over 2015 Holiday season? I am thinking depending on the reception of the movie, Battlefront might blow everything out of the water. I mean the hype is almost electric for all things Star Wars and if the movie turns out to be embraced, it would possibly lead into a rush on the games.

Black Ops III will have an easy win.

 

[Chobel]

Don't forget it's going to release on the One and 360.

I don't believe for a moment TR can achieve 500-600k on two platforms

Spoiler

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Battlefront won't sell anywhere near Call of Duty. EA expects Battlefront to sell 13 million, to put it in perspective, if Call of Duty sells 13 million it will be considered a bomb and the worst selling Call of Duty since Call of Duty 3 (before it got big with Modern Warfare).

I find your lack of faith disturbing...

 

[Asd202]

Don't forget it's going to release on the One and 360.

360 will 360 copies /s

Last year's top 10 in November:

1.) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (360, XBO, PS4, PS3, PC)
2.) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
3.) Super Smash Bros. (NWU, 3DS)
4.) Madden NFL 15 (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
5.) Assassin's Creed: Unity (PS4, XBO, PC)
6.) Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
7.) Far Cry 4 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3, PC)
8.) Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS)
9.) NBA 2K15 (PS4, 360, XBO, PS3, PC)
10.) Halo: The Master Chief Collection (XBO)

Hmm compared to last year Nintendo has nothing that would sell like Smash or Pokemon.

 

[Alo0oy]

I find your lack of faith disturbing...

No amount of faith is gonna make Battlefront double its projected sales (double is what it needs to sell better than CoD).

 

[Katana_Strikes]

Don't forget it's going to release on the One and 360.

I don't believe... ok someone beat me to it

I guess I have low expectations for the title (even though I think it will do OK, but I certainly can't see it doing those numbers personally, even with 2 platforms, especially on a pretty dead platform and you have to wonder how many people know it's coming to the 360. I betting marketing only covers the XBone version too?

 

[Chobel]

Minecraft, GTA, Skylanders, Disney Infiniti and FIFA.

You-kai Watch won't chart lol.

GTAV and probably Minecraft.

I can't see TR2 bombing that hard guys.

--------------------------------------------------------

And why do you think You-kai Watch won't sell well in US?

 

[stryke]

I find your lack of faith disturbing...

EA's market research shits all over "faith".

 

[Somnia]

Nothing to do with October, but MS is beginning November already in crazy fashion.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1135421

 

[slavesnyder]

Maybe TR sells well on 360 because all the people who jumped from 360 to PS4 and want to play the game right now don't find it worthy to buy an XboxOne.

 

[Alo0oy]

I can't see TR2 bombing that hard guys.

--------------------------------------------------------

And why do you think You-kai Watch won't sell well in US?

November is a very competitive month, a game can debut at #1 in the Summer, but if it sells identically in November it still may not chart.

As for You-kai Watch, do you really expect a Japanese new IP to sell 600k-700k? This isn't Final Fantasy.

 

[spatenfloot]

Who does everyone think will be the biggest winner over 2015 Holiday season? I am thinking depending on the reception of the movie, Battlefront might blow everything out of the water. I mean the hype is almost electric for all things Star Wars and if the movie turns out to be embraced, it would possibly lead into a rush on the games.

I think the best move would be for them to show an ad for the game before the movie.

 

[allan-bh]

Amazing how things have changed, a few months ago Xbox One beaten by PS4 in october would be catastrophic, now with PS4 price drop and Halo 5 apparently not doing so well, will be seen more naturally.

From clearly winner Xbox One became the underdog of NPD october.

 

[Giriath_89]

The fastest selling Tomb Raider as a timed exclusive on Xbox hardware and the highest metacritic score among all games featuring lara croft in 2015.

Ah, but MS would spin more.

The fastest selling Tomb Raider on Xbox is also the highest scoring Tomb Raider according to metacritic, in 2015.

 

[3rdamention]

I'd agree with those sentiments. Seems like MS just needed something to go against Uncharted 4 and drive up the versus narrative. At the same time, it's a nice feather in the cap for their software library I can't deny that.

On the whole though, CD have likely partially damaged the TR brand going forward if you ask me. I see it debuting in positions 8-10 on the November NPD.
I saw that Mary Kish lady on Gamespot's The Lobby gleefully exclaiming how XB1 needed this exclusive to finally secure a "win". I was thinking uhhh what kind of win exactly??

I would be shocked if Tomb Raider charts at all on this November NPD....Halo, COD, Star Wars, NBA, Fallout, Ass Creed and some weird Black Friday game deals (like a Madden or something) are going to be selling like crazy...

Plus, having it bundled at Best Buy with a console could somewhat hide some NPD numbers as well since bundled games don't count...

It's going to be an incredibly tough month to chart with all those Heavy Hitters and BF Deals....

 

[harrisk954]

Amazing how things have changed, a few months ago Xbox One beaten by PS4 in october would be catastrophic, now with PS4 price drop and Halo 5 apparently not doing so well, will be seen more naturally.

From clearly winner Xbox One became the underdog of NPD october.

While it might not be catastrophic for XB1 if PS4 takes October, it would pretty much be the end of any hope that the XB1 might catch up to PS4 in its home territory. If XB1 can't do it in the month that its flagship title releases, the rest of 2015 is definitely going to go PS4. Next year will likely be a bloodbath with all of the PS4 games being revealed for 2016. There comes a time where mind share just completely overtakes everything else and the XB1 has pretty much lost that battle.