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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

RexNovis

Banned
I found this to be an excellent catch from the other thread:

There is one stat we can compare with Halo 3 / Halo 4.

Halo 3 "Within the first day of its launch, “Halo 3” players worldwide racked up more than 3.6 million hours of online gameplay, which increased more than elevenfold to 40 million hours by the end of the first week,"

40 million hours in first week for Halo 3

Halo 4 "with over 4 million players in the first five days. Users spent a total of 31.4 million hours playing “Halo 4,”

31.4 million hours in first week for Halo 4

Halo 5 "Fans have logged more than 21 million hours of total gameplay, including 12 million hours in campaign mode alone."

21 million hours in the first week for Halo 5




You can see how the activity dropped from the releases... almost half of Halo 3 and Halo 3 activity was sp focused.

Gives us a bit of clarity about what to expect despite the spin.
 

Boke1879

Member
I found this to be an excellent catch from the other thread:



Gives us a bit of clarity about what to expect despite the spin.

This is what happens when we don't get any sales numbers lmaoo. We have to speculate based on time spent playing the game lol.
 

Elandyll

Banned
There's some massive revisionist BS going on in the Halo 5 MS PR thread... Next level stuff.

I've seen people saying that MS was actually including the hardware in the Halo3 1st week sales of $300m (they weren't), and now there's some magical math happening coming to the conclusion that Halo 5 may just have outsold Halo 3 massively, or at the minimum sold just as much as Halo4 (3.1m units in the US).

Man, the October results NPD thread might just become the thread of the year.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
There's some massive revisionist BS going on in the Halo 5 MS PR thread... Next level stuff.

I've seen people saying that MS was actually including the hardware in the Halo3 1st week sales of $300m (they weren't), and now there's some magical math happening coming to the conclusion that Halo 5 may just have outsold Halo 3 massively, or at the minimum sold just as much as Halo4 (3.1m units in the US).

Man, the October results NPD thread might just become the thread of the year.

I left that thread after a few pages, it devolved into fanboy wars very very quickly.

EDIT: It's not like the Ubisoft thread was any better, to be fair.
 

Boke1879

Member
There's some massive revisionist BS going on in the Halo 5 MS PR thread... Next level stuff.

I've seen people saying that MS was actually including the hardware in the Halo3 1st week sales of $300m (they weren't), and now there's some magical math happening coming to the conclusion that Halo 5 may just have outsold Halo 3 massively, or at the minimum sold just as much as Halo4 (3.1m units in the US).

Man, the October results NPD thread might just become the thread of the year.

No way it sold that much in the US. MS would have gladly given out those numbers. Hate that NPD is in another week.
 

donny2112

Member
But NPD is monthly. Are past month 1's for Halo games going to have the same number of weeks as this one?

It might be impossible to do a week 1 to week 1 comparison using NPD.

Halo 1, 2, and 4 were in November. REACH was early in September. Halo 3 is the closest, but it still has an extra week of sales.

Dat consistency :eek:

Halo 2 sold the same in its first month. Halo 1 was the underperformer of the bunch! *whistles innocently*
 

Conduit

Banned
But those digital sales could be another 200,000 units my man...It's all about the revenue anyway.

Halo 2 - £9.7 million / 260,000 units
Halo 3 - £16.9 million / 370,000 units
Halo 5 - £7.7 million / 150 000 units

Hm...why everbody make damn excuses about digital sales if they're not high in average.
 

Javin98

Banned
There's some massive revisionist BS going on in the Halo 5 MS PR thread... Next level stuff.

I've seen people saying that MS was actually including the hardware in the Halo3 1st week sales of $300m (they weren't), and now there's some magical math happening coming to the conclusion that Halo 5 may just have outsold Halo 3 massively, or at the minimum sold just as much as Halo4 (3.1m units in the US).

Man, the October results NPD thread might just become the thread of the year.
Yep, good thing I left the thread as soon as the shitstorm began. One of the posters actually tried to make others eat crow by pointing out that Halo 5 was the best selling digital game on XB1 to prove his statement that 90% of consumers bought it digitally. Man, the October NPD thread is gonna be have trucks load in salt every minute.
 

noobie

Banned
Eh, I'd say this will be on par with the Titanfall thread. Only those posting in this thread are debating about who will win. I suspect the majority outside of this thread assume X1 will take it and they will be shocked finding out that the PS4 sold the most. Especially after that PR today.

where is the PR.. i didnt see any PR..
 

ethomaz

Banned
Halo 2 - £9.7 million / 260,000 units
Halo 3 - £16.9 million / 370,000 units
Halo 5 - £7.7 million / 150 000 units

Hm...why everbody make damn excuses about digital sales if they're not high in average.
Where you get these values? The revenue.
 

wapplew

Member
I'm going to take MS PR face value because they might not have sold through information that quick.

So, Xbox will take Oct and Halo 5 physical only 2.8m.
 

Rymuth

Member
Yep, good thing I left the thread as soon as the shitstorm began. One of the posters actually tried to make others eat crow by pointing out that Halo 5 was the best selling digital game on XB1 to prove his statement that 90% of consumers bought it digitally. Man, the October NPD thread is gonna be have trucks load in salt every minute.
You sure he wasn't joking? It sounds like that joke that sprang from the UK thread (9 friends = 90% digital attach rate)

But then again, I wouldn't know. I'm too scared to go into that Halo PR thread. :/
 
You sure he wasn't joking? It sounds like that joke that sprang from the UK thread (9 friends = 90% digital attach rate)

But then again, I wouldn't know. I'm too scared to go into that Halo PR thread. :/

Pretty sure that poster was the very same one who gave us the '9/10 cats prefer Whiskas friends prefer digital'. He wasn't joking.
 

Bastables

Member
You sure he wasn't joking? It sounds like that joke that sprang from the UK thread (9 friends = 90% digital attach rate)

But then again, I wouldn't know. I'm too scared to go into that Halo PR thread. :/
It's the same guy, who then went into the US pr thread that has no actual copies sold within it to argue "look at this picture of a crow".
 

Javin98

Banned
You sure he wasn't joking? It sounds like that joke that sprang from the UK thread (9 friends = 90% digital attach rate)

But then again, I wouldn't know. I'm too scared to go into that Halo PR thread. :/
Yeah, I'm sure. He was the same guy who made the incredibly ridiculous statement in the first place and tried to use the PR from Microsoft to back his claim. Just shows you how delusional some posters are in that thread.
 

RexNovis

Banned
I just read someone trying to redefine what the word "revenue" means in that PR thread. Apparently revenue now means the exact same thing as profit. Why you ask? Well apparently "because MS always reported HW & Software sales for each release and that's clear when you factor in the fact that "MS revenue" was less than $60 per copy sold." .....

But Microsoft didn't get the full price of each as revenue?
Did they get a return of $60 for each copy sold? Wouldn't they have gotten something like $45 for standard, $55 for limited, and say $80-90 for legendary?

So you're saying Microsoft would report revenue that is not theirs, in a public statement that shareholders would read?
K

But those cuts are dealt at the time and point of sale. It's not like Microsoft receives ALL of the revenue from Halo 3, then starts sending cheques to retailers and manufactures for 15$ x #units...etc.
They never get to see the full $60, why would they report it on their side, it would be double counting.

Of course, but are MS are reporting Total Revenue or Total Microsoft Revenue (ie. their revenue)?

Basically the SalesGAF equivalent of "well it depends on what your definition of is is"

Delusional is far too kind of a word to describe what is occurring in that thread.
 
Seeing the cynicism in this thread, when NPD comes, I doubt that people will accept the fact that the FPS market has changed a lot since Halo 3 and it will ultimately result in 'lol Halo xbox is dead'.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Seeing the cynicism in this thread, when NPD comes, I doubt that people will accept the fact that the FPS market has changed a lot since Halo 3 and it will ultimately result in 'lol Halo xbox is dead'.

Nobody is saying Halo is dead we are saying its in decline. One is absurd and the other is what most assumed to be common sense. Yet we have people legitimately believing this will be the best selling entry in the series if other threads are to be believed.
 
Nobody is saying Halo is dead we are saying its in decline. One is absurd and the other is what most assumed to be common sense. Yet we have people legitimately believing this will be the best selling entry in the series if other threads are to be believed.

I don't think anyone can argue that Halo is not in a decline.
 

RexNovis

Banned
I don't think anyone can argue that Halo is not in a decline.

I take it you haven't visited some of the Halo threads posted today then? That's exactly what some are doing and their logic to support their claims is straight up asinine.

For an example look at the post I made a few minutes ago wherein people were attempting to redefine "revenue" in order to prove that all Halo or incident Software & Hardware sales and therefore Halo 5 was actually the best selling entry in the series according to the PR.

Or the ones who are saying software sales numbers don't matter that the revenue figures from the PR prove that Halo 5 is the biggest success in the series so far.
 

Javin98

Banned
I just read someone trying to redefine what the word "revenue" means in that PR thread. Apparently revenue now means the exact same thing as profit. Why you ask? Well apparently "because MS always reported HW & Software sales for each release and that's clear when you factor in the fact that "MS revenue" was less than $60 per copy sold." .....


Basically the SalesGAF equivalent of "well it depends on what your definition of is is"

Delusional is far too kind of a word to describe what is occurring in that thread.
LOL, go easy on them, man. It's not easy to accept the fact that one of your favorite franchises sold significantly less than previous entries. I would probably feel the same way if Uncharted 4 bombed :p
 

wapplew

Member
LOL, go easy on them, man. It's not easy to accept the fact that one of your favorite franchises sold significantly less than previous entries. I would probably feel the same way if Uncharted 4 bombed :p

Luckily my favorite franchises are not huge seller so it can hardly bomb.
 

noobie

Banned
i think some people are under estimating the Halo franchise a lot too. Ok it has got bad results in UK but still in USA i think it will get a reasonable showing.. I dont expect to see it it setting the charts on fire but reading Abdiel assessment i feel it has met the expectations. i expect to see Halo 5 around 2 - 2.3 million in NPD.. Which is definitely not bad.
 
Fair point. I'll cease and desist. Just couldn't believe what I was reading.
Those threads always make me question my time usage in here. But it isn't often gladly.

On topic, seems that most PS4 bundles are ahead of Xbox bundles in monthly now, no surprises there. Biggest surprise for me is poor pre orders of Fallout bundle.
 

samar11

Member
Those threads always make me question my time usage in here. But it isn't often gladly.

On topic, seems that most PS4 bundles are ahead of Xbox bundles in monthly now, no surprises there. Biggest surprise for me is poor pre orders of Fallout bundle.

Should of been 349 instead.
 
Amazon best sellers for November is showing up and its been dominated by all of Playstation consoles.

I know its too early to call anything as its only been a few days but they are only going to go up from here on end.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-11/videogames#2

Four SKUs of PS4 before the first XB1... wolf. Only a few days into the month, so not too telling just yet, but heck of an opening week for team blue.
 

Shin-chan

Member
Isn't November NPD decided largely by Black Friday? I don't think we should make any judgements yet based on the first few days being projections of the weeks to come. I'm certainly interested in MS Black Friday strategy and if Sony will do anything drastic given that they just had a price drop
 
Isn't November NPD decided largely by Black Friday? I don't think we should make any judgements yet based on the first few days being projections of the weeks to come. I'm certainly interested in MS Black Friday strategy and if Sony will do anything drastic given that they just had a price drop
Black Friday is huge, but we must remember that Sony has bundles for two biggest games if year, CoD and Battlefront. And those sell most in first days they are out. Though I'm sure MS will offer those games with their consoles as plus one game too. Interesting month.
 
Microsoft is gonna have to throw everything they have at Black Friday to stand a chance this month. Those ps4 bundles have too much momentum.
 

Shin-chan

Member
Black Friday is huge, but we must remember that Sony has bundles for two biggest games if year, CoD and Battlefront. And those sell most in first days they are out. Though I'm sure MS will offer those games with their consoles as plus one game too. Interesting month.

Definitely. Sony was really smart with all of their marketing partnerships this gen - first they get "exciting" new franchises like Watch Dogs and Destiny, leaving MS with the more "tired" Ass Creed and, arguably, Advanced Warfare. Then this year they're on the Star Wars train as well as the next Treyarch CoD. Complete this with some Disney sprinklings and whatnot. It really feels like they've been much more aggressive in this front than Microsoft has. The only thing comparable is FO4 ... but I'm waiting to see what if any impact that game has on hardware sales. Of course there's Tomb Raider but as I've said previously MS and SE have been so noncommittal with the game it's being sent to die in the US.
 
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