StrongBlackVine
Banned
500k is probably overly optimistic. I'm gonna say 400k tops if it is $40 or less on Black Friday.
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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
500k is probably overly optimistic. I'm gonna say 400k tops if it is $40 or less on Black Friday.
Man, that's seriously depressing. Europe needs to pick up the slack then.
The continent where PS4 has been absolutely dominating, picking up the slack on a XB1 exclusive? Somehow I have my doubts.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Europe is Sony territory so I doubt that will happen. U.S. will probably be the majority of sales.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
We have no way of knowing because they arent going to disclose how much money was offered to Square Enix.
I think both sides regret it now.
AmaterasuOni
Banned
Europe, where Xbone is dead apart from UK? Well, that's not happening at all.
If think either CD or SE. Specially after the whole "we chose to partner with MS due to their love of the franchise and the amount of suppport.", and now after having been thrown to the wolves (and it's not just the date, the bundles are also mind boggling) they now look very foolish imo.
That, and having chosen a quick paycheck at the expense of their PC/ PS userbase for .... This.
In Japan it's legs are strong, and usually in The US The Mario legs are even better than in Japan.
What Games Can Beat Mario Maker in November for You?
Maybe Uncharted and Minecraft, definitively possible even if i don't think so, but others games?
It Can definitively be out of TOP TEN, but is not that unlucky for me.
Again with the "you guys are underestimating" line? Really? Are you just going to say this about every single moderately successful WiiU release? First it was Smash Bros, then it was Splatoon and now it's Mario Maker. The way you talk about the sales of these games you'd think they are single handedly pushing the WiiU to record levels. They arent. Please learn to separate your personal bias from reality. Its becoming incredibly tiresome.
Yea.. that 500k was definitely on the very high end for me lol
1) Never talked about Smash, if so, give me a link, but i know You have not.
2) I only Said This with Splatoon and Mario Maker.
Let's See Splatoon, just for fun.
I'm not even gonna talk about who Said was gonna bomb at W101 level...
June 2015 = *Splatoon sell 1 Million*
"Yeah, but i don't think Can break 2 Million"
Or my fabourite: " 3 Million Are impossible"
3 months later: Splatoon at 2.4 Million.
Lol.
And no offense, but The part about Wii U has no sense.
I only talked about The Games Sales, never about a incredible boost.
If You see my Wii U predictions in those NPD Thread, i always underestimated it's Sales.
I predicted 40k in August, it Sold 43k. I predicted 70k in September, it Sold 85k.
If the game really bombs with less than 500k units sold in the first month heads will roll at Crystal Dynamics. Who made or pushed to make this deal will likely be put in a condition to leave....
Afterall they knew they were turning their back to their traditional fanbase, they said they would get much more exposure in this way being pushed as a key Xbox exclusive and that development would benefit but these benefits failed to materialize. MS didn't even reserve to the game a special bundle treatment like they did last year with AC Unity. And releasing the same day as Fallout 4....
It wasn't a smart decision, execs at the higher floor will be pissed and someone will pay...it always goes like that.
As somebody posted here some days ago it's like after Uncharted 4 delay MS lost all the interest on Tomb Raider.
Also, everybody expected a possible Tomb Raider bundle as "this year's Assassin's Creed bundle" cheap bundle direct to Black Friday offers. Instead of this they chose $399 as price for it and only available on MS Stores and Best Buy...
Also, everybody expected a possible Tomb Raider bundle as "this year's Assassin's Creed bundle" cheap bundle direct to Black Friday offers. Instead of this they chose $399 as price for it and only available on MS Stores and Best Buy...
The problem is that when you make these claims you have 0 proof whatsoever. It basically just a guess that is guided by your own desire for Nintendo to succeed. The constant citing of Japan is absurd and irrelevant to the world wide market. Its an entirely different market. The trends hold no bearing whatsoever on the world at large. I would certainly appreciate it if you stopped making authoritative statements based upon hunches. It's becoming a trend and it needs to stop. This is a sales thread. You can make predictions all you want but the second you go correcting people or assuring them they are wrong about something you damn well better have more backing you up than a hunch and an irrelevant market comparison.
The comment about WiiU sales was a reflection of your exaggeration of the software sales. The way that you salivate over them its like you are expecting them to provide a level of success for Nintendo that is just not feasible. Its easy to misconstrue the impact of these sales given your overzealous enthusiasm.
MasterSheen
Member
[3DS] 101k
[PS4] 390k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 375k
[PS4] 390k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 375k
hydrophilic attack
Member
It's possible the deal was made by people at Square-Enix, and not by anyone at Crystal Dynamics
That was my assumption.
Yep I thought this was an SE decision not a Crystal Dynamics decision. Didn't Kagari confirm as much at one point? Can't recall where.
Yep you're right, we don't know who made the deal.
But reading the statements and the interviews we got about it so far, my impression/guess is that there are people at the executive level in CD who are in contact and in a good relationship with MS and they pushed for it. CD is also an american studio, it's easier to grow a relationship with an other american company.
Square Enix probably said "if you know what you're doing, they're gonna help with development and we're getting a good amount of money back....why not?" and greenlighted it.
It wouldn't be the first case in the industry, we all know about Mikami pushing to bring Biohazard exclusively to the Gamecube and Capcom said yes trusting him.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Most likely, but it will be the studio that pays for decision if any one does. SE should just take this L and not make the same mistake again.
*edit*
Gallagher or whatever his name is the head of studio seemed to be very much so in favor of the deal so both share the blame. At least his condescending remarks in response to the backlash against the deal made it seem that way.
Really? Because i Say: " You underestimate This Game" ?
People tell me i overestimate Splatoon because i predict 5.5 Million.
They say This withouth a Source or nothing, is just what They think.
And i'm ok with This. If FOR YOU, i overestimate a Game, a console, ecc, ok, You Can Say that for You i overestimate This game, console ecc.
And i Can Say that FOR ME, fou Are underestimate This Game.
In my opinion, People underestimate too Much most Nintendo Games, and at the end, most of The time, those Games sell much More than what People expect. Like Mario Kart.
"It's on Wii U" , and then it Sold 6 Million in less than 1 year and half. Much Guys thought it was not gonna Beat DD, now it will definitively Beat it.
And This is just a example, but is a Fact that SO many times, much People underestimated The Nintendo Games legs.
I must have missed that. Usually those guys are told to play along, so it's hard to tell whose idea it was.
hydrophilic attack
Member
I remember SE saying in an investor meeting or report that they would move towards making deals with platform holders to fund higher-budget games. That would make it being a SE decision more likely. But my google-fu is not strong enough to find it so I may be misremembering.
The difference is that the people saying you are overestimating are aligning with the current sales trends. Their statement is grounded in reality. Yours are basically just random numbers based off your hopes and dreams for success entirely separated from the reality of current sales trends. When your statements, which youd eliver with aboslute certainty, clash with known trends/data then it is up to you to back them up. Especially if you are going to go around correcting people because they are "underestimating" sales when, in reality, they are just judging the market based on user base and its impact on the possibility of software sales.
It's looking like a waste for both sides.
It'll probably be sent to die on PS4 as well. That would be hilarious, one game sent to die twice. Has that ever happened?
On the upside for RotTR, its budget was likely (much?) lower than TR2013's. Two years instead of four years of development, for instance, plus they had the TR2013 (DE) engine as a good foundation to build on already and overall, they probably had a much better idea of where they wanted to take the game based on TR2013's feedback.
Here's to hoping Squenix cut a good deal with MS and, if it does disappoint sales wise, it won't mean the end of the franchise for the foreseeable future. Honestly, I'd be fine if MS locks the next one down as a full exclusive if it means we get one at all. With Uncharted possibly ending next year, I just can't lose both games, guys.
Here's to hoping Squenix cut a good deal with MS and, if it does disappoint sales wise, it won't mean the end of the franchise for the foreseeable future. Honestly, I'd be fine if MS locks the next one down as a full exclusive if it means we get one at all. With Uncharted possibly ending next year, I just can't lose both games, guys.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
He said that PS4 and PC owners could play the TR2013 and that Temple of Osiris crap. The equivalent of Xbox's "we have a console for you" comment from the DRM fallout. Also that Microsoft were their "friends" and some other nonsense no one wanted to read or hear. Basically a polite way to say "fuck you they showed me money." Maybe condescending isn't the right word, but definitely not a savvy response when you are doing PR.
Here's to hoping Squenix cut a good deal with MS and, if it does disappoint sales wise, it won't mean the end of the franchise for the foreseeable future. Honestly, I'd be fine if MS locks the next one down as a full exclusive if it means we get one at all. With Uncharted possibly ending next year, I just can't lose both games, guys.
Yes poor sales because of timed exclusivity should result in even greater exclusivity...maybe that was the plan all along! Based on what the SE CEO said a while back I expect the final game in the trilogy to be multiplat from the start.
Batman Arkham Knight on PC is a recent one. Especially with all the refunds.
DriftingSpirit
Member
It was just too much passion for them to pass up on. PS4 and PC users be damned.
hydrophilic attack
Member
On the upside for RotTR, its budget was likely (much?) lower than TR2013's. Two years instead of four years of development, for instance, plus they had the TR2013 (DE) engine as a good foundation to build on already and overall, they probably had a much better idea of where they wanted to take the game based on TR2013's feedback.
Here's to hoping Squenix cut a good deal with MS and, if it does disappoint sales wise, it won't mean the end of the franchise for the foreseeable future. Honestly, I'd be fine if MS locks the next one down as a full exclusive if it means we get one at all. With Uncharted possibly ending next year, I just can't lose both games, guys.
Uncharted is not ending.
We can only speculate.
My hunch tells me that CD's head of studio Darrell Gallagher had a big part in this deal compared to other executives at a japanese publisher that has showed little to no sympathy to the Xbox platform this gen.
But for now let's see how the game perfoms in its first month.
Since TR is stronger in Europe than in the US, UK numbers will give us a really good idea of what to expect.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Batman sold over 5 million though and it will continue sell for a good while with inevitable GOTY edition. Even if you subtract some for refunds lifetime sales will still be very good.
Splatoon, smash, and mario maker all have pretty damn good attachment ratios given the install base of the WiiU. Are these game pushing hardware? No. But they are selling to the current install base. I thought this was common knowledge by now. When it comes to first party IPs, Nintendo has some of the best non-bundled attachment ratios on consoles period. Just think of what could have been had Nintendo proceeded with PLAYSTATION. Best company in console gaming software paired with a company who understands console hardware like Sony does. GAF has a thread with LTD of all the games mentioned above. Couple that with fact that the Wii U is only around 10.7million.
On PC?
Trend? What trend?
This trend?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSpyCNWWUAQnc9R.png:large
I predicted 2.32m for Splatoon this quarter. At the end, it sold 2.42 million.
The trend show HOW Splatoon is selling better than what i predicted.
I predicted 5.5 million, and guess what is the trend? The trend show how Splatoon is selling better than my prediction, so, THAT IS, get over this.
The trend show that Splatoon is gonna sell MORE THAN 5.5 million, and this is because is selling better than what i predicted, this is the trend.
Another trend, the Mario Kart attach rate. All time people say the attach rate will decrease, because Wii U sales will rise.
And guess, the attach rate continue to increase ALL TIMES.
But do you at least know what the numbers are?
Lol, you think i'm just a Nintendo fan which predict huge Nintendo numbers. WRONG.
I made REALISTIC prediction, with precise numbers, Quarter, Region, and YOY predictions.
This is what you guys don't made. You just say "MK8 will sell 6 million, Spatoon will sell 3 million, Pokémon ORAS will sell 10 million ecc", whitouth accurate graph or thing like this.
So, that is. Fact, as for now, show that I UNDERESTIMATE Splatoon. Not overestimate, that's a fact. The link above confirmed this. This, is the trend.
But now, use MP.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Well, the "passion" stuff was said by Phil Rogers CEO of Square-Enix America and Europe. So it could be a decision lobbied for by the Western branch which have gotten a lot more say after the Eidos acquisition.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
No, but a busted PC port does not mean the game was sent to die. From a business sense does it matter where it sold as long as sold a lot? The clearly went the cheap route on the PC port so they probably didn't lose much if anything if at all.
Well, Nathan Drake's story is seemingly ending in 4 at least. May be good enough of a reason to not do more Uncharted but instead do a few more TLoU games and develop a completely new IP. Clearly, they've been thinking about doing other stuff than Uncharted and TLoU.
yukianderson
Member
Here's to hoping Squenix cut a good deal with MS and, if it does disappoint sales wise, it won't mean the end of the franchise for the foreseeable future. Honestly, I'd be fine if MS locks the next one down as a full exclusive if it means we get one at all. With Uncharted possibly ending next year, I just can't lose both games, guys.
It has more of a chance of becoming PS4 exclusive than another Xbox one exclusive deal ever happening...
The trend is that Splatoon is selling better than MK8 Worlwide.
NOT in Japan. But Worldwide.
First quarter
MK8 - 2.82m
Splat - 1.62m
Mk8 has a better Launch.
Second quarter:
Splat: 800k
MK8: 670k
So, The trend show Splatoon has better legs. This is a Fact, now if You guys think it's legs will drop under MK8, i'm ok with This, but This is YOUR prediction.
The trend is SPLAT Over MK8.
Now, MK8 has Sold 1.28m The third quarter.
Splatoon, with this trend, will Beat this, and by end of year will be over 3.64m.
This is The trend. Am i wrong?
hydrophilic attack
Member
Here's to hoping Squenix cut a good deal with MS and, if it does disappoint sales wise, it won't mean the end of the franchise for the foreseeable future. Honestly, I'd be fine if MS locks the next one down as a full exclusive if it means we get one at all. With Uncharted possibly ending next year, I just can't lose both games, guys.
Maybe this was the plan by Microsoft all along. Ruin the brand so they can get the next one as an exclusive for cheap. Using the same playbook as they used with Nokia.
yukianderson
Member
Think of it like this if TR fails so badly then we might get the crossover uncharted and TR. Laura and Drake together...
Stilton Disco
Member
Here's to hoping Squenix cut a good deal with MS and, if it does disappoint sales wise, it won't mean the end of the franchise for the foreseeable future. Honestly, I'd be fine if MS locks the next one down as a full exclusive if it means we get one at all. With Uncharted possibly ending next year, I just can't lose both games, guys.
Making TR an Xbox exclussive would be a death sentence to the franchise. For most of the player base such a deal would effectively be an announcement the franchise would have ceased to exist already.
What was really great about that was at the same time the Temple of Osiris Devs were announcing their game would only be getting a physical collectors edition release on PC and PS4, because there weren't enough Tomb Raider fans on XO to justify making a similar version for MS's system.
Obliterator
Member
It is a literal bomb imo as I expect the budget was large
Than at the end Nathan bangs Laura, and a new legend is born. Lara Drake Jr.
I don't think SE is worried about how this performs in the short term, I really don't. The deal most likely effectively de-risked this release. I think what they have to be more worried about is if they damaged or lowered the profile of the series in the eyes of their main audience, which, let's be honest, is comprised primarily of PC players and Playstation owners, particularly in Europe. At least historically.
Since no competitor has emerged to say I AM YOUR NEW CHAMPION to those people, I think they'll be fine. I think there is a big chance of getting "wally pip'd" so to speak, where exclusive franchises lose ground to multiplatform franchises that absolutely blow the fuq up, but there is none here to really play that role. If there was a new EA Star Wars TPS, like Star Wars 1313 was, that could really have stolen this game's thunder. But there's not.
The adage to me is simple: you don't make uncharted and then not offer it to uncharted fans.
Since no competitor has emerged to say I AM YOUR NEW CHAMPION to those people, I think they'll be fine. I think there is a big chance of getting "wally pip'd" so to speak, where exclusive franchises lose ground to multiplatform franchises that absolutely blow the fuq up, but there is none here to really play that role. If there was a new EA Star Wars TPS, like Star Wars 1313 was, that could really have stolen this game's thunder. But there's not.
The adage to me is simple: you don't make uncharted and then not offer it to uncharted fans.
Judging from the rather nice twitter response to having Lara in PS allstar
Yeah that's totally happening lolol