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[3rdamention]

My prediction

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III ( PS4; XB1; 360, PS3; PC)
2) Star Wars: Battlefront ( PS4; XB1; PC )
3) Fallout 4 ( PS4; XB1; PC )
4) Halo 5 ( XB1 )
5) NBA 2K16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3)
6) Madden NFL16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3 )
7) Assassin's Creed: Syndacate ( PS4; XB1; PC )
8) Yokay Watch ( 3DS )
9) Rise of the Tomb Raider ( XB1; 360)
10) Super Mario Maker ( Wii U )

So, yes, i think will chart.

Its pretty hard to disagree with this list. I could see it play out very similar. We will have to wait a month to find out, lol. I do think there could be a chance for the top 3 to move around, depending on how Battlefront and Fallout perform on PC.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I think people are wrong on lifetime sales. Just like the first game, it will be very very heavily discounted and included in Humble Murderer Wah Critique bundle on steam for 4.99. It'll sell a lot.

$5 sales is lot different than $60 or even $40 sales.

 

[Fdkn]

$5 sales is lot different than $60 or even $40 sales.

It is, but those happen with almost every game and we rarely know how many units they sold before them.

 

[KillerMan91]

My prediction

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III ( PS4; XB1; 360, PS3; PC)
2) Star Wars: Battlefront ( PS4; XB1; PC )
3) Fallout 4 ( PS4; XB1; PC )
4) Halo 5 ( XB1 )
5) NBA 2K16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3)
6) Madden NFL16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3 )
7) Assassin's Creed: Syndacate ( PS4; XB1; PC )
8) Yokay Watch ( 3DS )
9) Rise of the Tomb Raider ( XB1; 360)
10) Super Mario Maker ( Wii U )

So, yes, i think will chart.

Halo MCC sold between 660-700k last year and was at tenth place. If Youkai Watch makes it to the top then there must be huge drop in top ten sales barrier. It's not going to sell over 600k first month.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Halo MCC sold between 660-700k last year and was at tenth place. If Youkai Watch makes it to the top then there must be huge drop in top ten sales barrier. It's not going to sell over 600k first month.

It was:

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (360, XBO, PS4, PS3, PC) < 4,700,000 ( 200,000 XB1 bundle)
Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3) > 1,440,000 ( 340,000 PS4 bundle )
Super Smash Bros. (Wii U, 3DS) > 670,000 (Wii U version only )
Madden NFL 15 (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
Assassin&#8217;s Creed Unity (PS4, XBO, PC)
Far Cry 4 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3, PC)
Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS)
NBA 2K15 (PS4, 360, XBO, PS3, PC)
Halo: The Master Chief Collection (XBO) > 660,000

Well, maybe is just because there are more games...?
We have in November as most important release:
CoD, GTA, Smash, Pokémon, Halo MCC, Far Cry, AC unity. Those are 7 new games.

This time, we have as "big" games only Black Ops, Star Wars, and Fallout... The rest, is not big.

I personally see Yokay Watch at 300-500k.

 

[CosmicQueso]

I personally see Yokay Watch at 300-500k.

This is an avatar bet waiting to happen.

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

i think blops 3 xb1> ps4

is more likely for the software chart

 

[DriftingSpirit]

i think blops 3 xb1> ps4

is more likely for a software chart

I am really interested in seeing whether Sony's CoD deal will be able to push the PS4 version ahead. Assassin's Creed Syndicate is another one I will look out for.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

So any avatar bets yet for whether TR will chart or not? Let's make this a bit more interesting, folks. I already lost a dumb bet this year for Splatoon, so it's someone else's turn to risk taking the L

I think people are wrong on lifetime sales. Just like the first game, it will be very very heavily discounted and included in Humble Murderer Wah Critique bundle on steam for 4.99. It'll sell a lot.

Sure, but they won't make any money from that.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

This is an avatar bet waiting to happen.

I only made bet about Splatoon, sorry.

 

[slavesnyder]

It is, but those happen with almost every game and we rarely know how many units they sold before them.

Bundle sales should not count. They are ridiculously low in revenue.
For 5$ you get something like 6 to 8 games. Take off some money for charity, payment fees and bundle hosts and you Should end up with a quarter dollar for each key sold.

 

[vin-buc]

I am really interested in seeing whether Sony's CoD deal will be able to push the PS4 version ahead. Assassin's Creed Syndicate is another one I will look out for.

I think it will go to XB1 as well. Also - the COD bundled games won't count. And even though it's Amazon charts - the monthly has BLoPs 3 on XB1 at #2. In the US - even with a marketing deal the tide won't turn drastically.

We'll see how future monthly sales turn out with the 30-day DLC exclusivity.

 

[TheOfficeMut]

I won't choose numbers for specific consoles, but I will estimate a 33k difference between PS4 and Xbox One.

 

[slavesnyder]

This is an avatar bet waiting to happen.

Yokay beating Lara would be a fun bet.

 

[Boke1879]

I am really interested in seeing whether Sony's CoD deal will be able to push the PS4 version ahead. Assassin's Creed Syndicate is another one I will look out for.

It pulled the PS4 ahead in the UK. I think the split was 48% to 43% in favor of Sony. So I think regardless it won't be by much.

All Sony has to hope for is to maintain parity. That in itself would be a huge win for them.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I think it will go to XB1 as well. Also - the COD bundled games won't count. And even though it's Amazon charts - the monthly has BLoPs 3 on XB1 at #2. In the US - even with a marketing deal the tide won't turn drastically.

We'll see how future monthly sales turn out with the 30-day DLC exclusivity.

If the PS4 software is ahead when including bundles, I think that would be a sign of things to come. If X1 is still ahead when you include the bundles, CoD is just too attached to Xbox. Of course, so long as PS4's CoD share improves, it won't really matter.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

It pulled the PS4 ahead in the UK. I think the split was 48% to 43% in favor of Sony. So I think regardless it won't be by much.

All Sony has to hope for is to maintain parity. That in itself would be a huge win for them.

Ah, that is a good point I overlooked. The UK and US market should be fairly similar in this regard. So, PS4 leading in CoD sales is possible.

Edit - Double post. I sorry.

 

[timlot]

PS4 by 100k. Saw somebody buying UC bundle on a slow Wednesday at Gamestop. My anecdotal

 

[blakep267]

Ah, that is a good point I overlooked. The UK and US market should be fairly similar in this regard. So, PS4 leading in CoD sales is possible.

Edit - Double post. I sorry.

depends. Bundles count in the UK and also MS was basically giving it away for 3 days with every new console

 

[Conduit]

Microsoft should pack Fallout 4 with SSHD.

 

[slavesnyder]

Also I would love to know how the deal for Tomb Raider looked like.
1 year of exclusivity can't be cheap. Surely Microsoft offered more than just marketing (and even that was not really a blast it seems)
Maybe some recoupable advance stuff? Like: you get 20M or so front up guaranteed and we keep your share from actual sales until this amount is evened out.

 

[Boke1879]

depends. Bundles count in the UK and also MS was basically giving it away for 3 days with every new console

I'm not saying it can't go either way. But it is possible that it can sell more. Especially as times goes on.

 

[Chobel]

For what I'm seeing, all Xbox One bundle are receiving $50 price cut for Black Friday, but in PS4 case Uncharted bundle is the only with $50 off.

Only at Best Buy, no?

PS4 by 100k. Saw somebody buying UC bundle on a slow Wednesday at Gamestop. My anecdotal

Wat?

 

[blakep267]

Only at Best Buy, no?

yeah I think e was talking about best buy. The deals showed gears for $299 and tomb raider for $349

 

[jakncoke]

For those who have worked in retail during Black Friday, is it possible to make a metaphorical comparison of what it is like?

I worked a black friday where they shoved all the movie and game deals to the meat section and didnt even have a 1 way section, people could go any way they wanted was a parade of chaos

 

[RexNovis]

i think blops 3 xb1> ps4

is more likely for the software chart

That's pretty much guaranteed thanks to the CoD bundle. Especially with how well it seems to be selling. I'm positive PS4 will have more copies sold when factoring in bundles though.

 

[Conduit]

Fuck man. Midnight release, and then early mornings... Fallout doing very very well. Tomb raider doing... Okay, I guess, if I want to be nice. Seriously, what were they thinking...

Fallout 4 Xbone/PS4 split?

Also, where is Somnia? I read here that he's helping in Gamestop. I'm interested in Tomb Raider sales there at release day.

 

[slavesnyder]

That's pretty much guaranteed thanks to the CoD bundle. Especially with how well it seems to be selling. I'm positive PS4 will have more copies sold when factoring in bundles though.

Pachter said that the only marketing deal that really matters is COD, especially when you get the new maps first.
I think he is right.
It will be very important for the kids to play with their friends, too. And for the market leader this comes in handy.
So maybe even withoutbundles counted it might get close.

 

[Primethius]

Predictions are about to close in less than two hours and I can't make up my mind on the edits I want to make.

I hope we get the PR nice and early on Thursday.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

You know when game's gonna be huge? It's #1 on Twitch beating LoL, CoD, CS:GO and Hearthstone. That's Fallout 4 for you. It has been averaging at 200k viewers for a day.

At the same time Halo 5 is 27th and Tomb Raider 20th. Yeah...

 

[Obliterator]

You know when game's gonna be huge? It's #1 on Twitch beating LoL, CoD, CS:GO and Hearthstone. That's Fallout 4 for you. It has been averaging at 200k viewers for a day.

At the same time Halo 5 is 27th and Tomb Raider 20th. Yeah...

Its gonna be huge

 

[Somnia]

Fallout 4 Xbone/PS4 split?

Also, where is Somnia? I read here that he's helping in Gamestop. I'm interested in Tomb Raider sales there at release day.

I only work like 5 hours a week to be clear btw, but our late launch was split almost exactly 50/50 on Fallout 4 (over 100 copies sold). Tomb Raider had 2 pickups, but I don't work again till Battlefront, so no idea what it'll do this week.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

You know when game's gonna be huge? It's #1 on Twitch beating LoL, CoD, CS:GO and Hearthstone. That's Fallout 4 for you. It has been averaging at 200k viewers for a day.

At the same time Halo 5 is 27th and Tomb Raider 20th. Yeah...

That's mightily impressive :O

Also, I edited my PS4 and XBO predictions:

[3DS] 100K
[PS4] 490K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 475K

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Tomb Raider had 2 pickups

Is it DOA?

Launching next to FO4 was a bad idea.

 

[Sterok]

My prediction

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III ( PS4; XB1; 360, PS3; PC)
2) Star Wars: Battlefront ( PS4; XB1; PC )
3) Fallout 4 ( PS4; XB1; PC )
4) Halo 5 ( XB1 )
5) NBA 2K16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3)
6) Madden NFL16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3 )
7) Assassin's Creed: Syndacate ( PS4; XB1; PC )
8) Yokay Watch ( 3DS )
9) Rise of the Tomb Raider ( XB1; 360)
10) Super Mario Maker ( Wii U )

So, yes, i think will chart.

I want to be optimistic about Yokai (even though it realistically has almost no chance to chart), but Mario Maker has no chance. I don't think it'll have legs that big 2 months after release on such a small install base.

I don't think Nintendo is going to chart at all in November/December, so what else is going to chart? Minecraft again?

 

[pager99]

I hope xbox takes it,even though I'm a PlayStation guy it'll keep Sony on its toes but that's besides the point I just think for a healthy industry the xbox's sales have to pick up,the ps4 will be a success no doubt but the xbox needs to turn a corner this holidays

 

[AmaterasuOni]

Is it DOA?

Launching next to FO4 was a bad idea.

Well, it was against Fallout, so yeah. I'm sure few people got it. At least I would have bought it instead of FO4, but I don't have an Xbone.

 

[stryke]

My prediction

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III ( PS4; XB1; 360, PS3; PC)
2) Star Wars: Battlefront ( PS4; XB1; PC )
3) Fallout 4 ( PS4; XB1; PC )
4) Halo 5 ( XB1 )
5) NBA 2K16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3)
6) Madden NFL16 ( PS4; XB1; 360; PS3 )
7) Assassin's Creed: Syndacate ( PS4; XB1; PC )
8) Yokay Watch ( 3DS )
9) Rise of the Tomb Raider ( XB1; 360)
10) Super Mario Maker ( Wii U )

So, yes, i think will chart.

Wouldn't Minecraft squeeze in there somewhere?

 

[wachie]

Did Abdiel pop in to post his impressions?

 

[Shenmue]

Are NPD results today?

NVM saw the Thursday date in OP

 

[Welfare]

Wouldn't Minecraft squeeze in there somewhere?

Probably above Mario Maker.

 

[Boke1879]

Are NPD results today?

Thursday

 

[Death2494]

i think blops 3 xb1> ps4

is more likely for the software chart

correct me if I'm wrong but didnt COD:Ghost sell better on the PS4? Or was in regards to worldwide sales and not NPD?

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I only work like 5 hours a week to be clear btw, but our late launch was split almost exactly 50/50 on Fallout 4 (over 100 copies sold). Tomb Raider had 2 pickups, but I don't work again till Battlefront, so no idea what it'll do this week.

But there is room for both or at least that is what I have been told. But seriously your store HAS to be an anomaly.

 

[Dinjooh]

Thursday

Right after the Direct I suppose if my timezone calculations aren't too far off.

 

[hawk2025]

This is nearly useless information since we have Abdiel here, but I went to Best Buy to pick up my online order of Tomb Raider, and asked casually what the comparison was like to Fallout.

The person told me that they had more than 40 times as many orders for Fallout than Tomb Raider.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I want to be optimistic about Yokai (even though it realistically has almost no chance to chart), but Mario Maker has no chance. I don't think it'll have legs that big 2 months after release on such a small install base.

I don't think Nintendo is going to chart at all in November/December, so what else is going to chart? Minecraft again?

Probably above Mario Maker.

You guys underestimate Mario Maker.
It sold really, really good first month, and the legs of this game are strong just like almost all Nintendo games.

 

[Boke1879]

But there is room for both or at least that is what I have been told. But seriously your store HAS to be an anomaly.

I'm not saying the game won't sell well but it definitely won't do what it was capable of. I'm expecting under 500k unless the holiday shopping season is really kind to it.

 

[zsynqx]

Who will be more pissed about the Tomb Raider situation, Square or Microsoft? The real loser hear is Crystal Dynamics who by all accounts cranked out an amazing game, and are likely to be rewarded with middling sales because of a dumb business decision and packed release date.

 

[Welfare]

You guys underestimate Mario Maker.
It sold really, really good first month, and the legs of this game are strong just like almost all Nintendo games.

Let's wait until this NPD before saying legs are strong. Not doubting it'll sell well, but I mean, both of them are going to fail to chart in November unless the bottom 5 software sell horribly.