October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

So torn this month. For now 3week Pricecut > Halo + XB1

[PS4] 420k
[XB1] 405k
[3DS] 95k
[WIU] 65k

Normally been overshooting the current gen twins, so I'm low balling.

Edit:

After Halo 5 Uk sales thread. I'm leaning PS4. But not by much.

3.0m > Halo > 2.5m

Edit 2:

PS4 and XB1 up. Increased faith in PS4 pricedrop and XB1 bundles. Apparently Halo 5 won't crack 2m in NPD.
 
On Demand said:
They both were still available at other stores.
Click to expand...
If there was still stock for the TLOU and Destiny bundles in other retailers, Amazon's monthly charts may be leaning more towards an XB1 win as those two bundles were sold out for almost half a month. Then again, the Halo 5 bundle had relatively strong pre orders in August, so we can definitely say that October will be interesting.

viHuGi said:
Ps4 400K
Xbox One 450K
Wii U 85K
3DS 125K
Click to expand...
Use the format provided in the OP for your predictions to be counted.
 
CoD bundle keeps climbing fast in the hourly charts. I've really surprised by that, considering the premium price.

I feel like XB1 will win October comfortably tho, so I might put the gap between it and PS4 around 50k when I make my prediction.
 
Tubie said:
CoD bundle keeps climbing fast in the hourly charts. I've really surprised by that, considering the premium price.

I feel like XB1 will win October comfortably tho, so I might put the gap between it and PS4 around 50k when I make my prediction.
Click to expand...

There's a reason why Sony/MS are comfortable pitting their LE CoD/Halo bundles at such a premium, they know that it's extremely desirable by their core (and very sizable) fanbase despite its price.

Get the margins in first from early adopters who want the bling bling LE consoles.
 
I think October will be quite close and could go either way.

But November/December I think PS4 pulls out a sizable margin over the XB1 (adding a few hundred K lead over these two months). Halo will have an impact on October to make it close, but I don't think it will be very long lived going into the holiday season.

Looking at how Amazon is trending so far and there's three SKUs in the top 20, two of which are bundles of huge multiplay games (Star Wars and CoD). This, coupled with the recent price drop, is really going to drive a ton of PS4 sales in the US.

Fallout 4 (another massive game) and CoD are also trending better on PS4 vs. XB1 in terms of software sales. I think at this point the momentum effect is just too big in PS4's favor. Microsoft did a great job last year of pushing the price of the XB1 low to drive adoption but it simply wasn't enough. I think Phil Spencer's recent comments reflect the current state of the market where trying to win US back in MS's favor just isn't a reality at this point, but they can still focusing on righting the ship and keeping XB1 a viable platform (which it is) in the US.

Microsoft's strategy with tomb raider has to be a little disconcerting for them. I feel this game will unfortunately get eaten alive and be completely forgotten about. Makes you wonder whether or not it was worth it from their end in retrospect. Hope it doesn't hurt the series' long-term viability, but this really should have been pushed back a few months in a lighter release window and should not have been exclusive. Square Enix took a bad short term deal that could screw them, imo....and for Microsoft you really have to ponder if it was even worth it at all. And I say this as someone that is really looking forward to Rise of the Tomb raider.
 
Amazon Monthly Update (Not Final)

PS4 got ahead of Halo!:

23) Uncharted PS4 Bundle
24) Halo XB1 Bundle
28) Star Wars LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
40) TLOU PS4 Bundle
48) Destiny LE PS4 Bundle
49) CoD LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
94) Gears XB1 Bundle

So, with one more Amazon Monthly Update missing, what do you guys think? PS4 win?
 
James Sawyer Ford said:
Microsoft's strategy with tomb raider has to be a little disconcerting for them. I feel this game will unfortunately get eaten alive and be completely forgotten about. Makes you wonder whether or not it was worth it from their end in retrospect. Hope it doesn't hurt the series' long-term viability, but this really should have been pushed back a few months in a lighter release window and should not have been exclusive. Square Enix took a bad short term deal that could screw them, imo....and for Microsoft you really have to ponder if it was even worth it at all. And I say this as someone that is really looking forward to Rise of the Tomb raider.
Click to expand...
It just ended up in the worst case scenario. No Uncharted 4 to go up against and try to divert sales and lumped between massive third party titles coming the week before and the week after. This is all the while launching on the same day as another big third party title.

I'm not sure how this will end up not being disappointing for SE and MS.
 
I think H5 will do the job for MS this month, did anyone check if there is a correlation between Amazon stats and monthly NPD? People like to use it and I wonder how telling is it.

About TR, why people are assuming FO4 crowd and TR are the same? I think TR can sell pretty well.
 
super6646 said:
Usually we here numbers after a week. If we don't, well then that could be a problem.
Click to expand...
Yea I expected to hear some numbers by now, maybe it's still selling great but just not as crazy as some of the best selling entries in the series and MS would rather people not compare.
 
DriftingSpirit said:
It just ended up in the worst case scenario. No Uncharted 4 to go up against and try to divert sales and lumped between massive third party titles coming the week before and the week after. This is all the while launching on the same day as another big third party title.

I'm not sure how this will end up not being disappointing for SE and MS.
Click to expand...

Yup. It truly ended up in a bad spot imo. I truly hope it sells well but with games like COD, Battlefront and it launching on the same damn day and Fallout 4 those games clearly take over mind share. I know they have a console bundle for the game but I don't know if that is even doing too hot.
 
Sangetsu-II said:
Amazon Monthly Update (Not Final)

PS4 got ahead of Halo!:

23) Uncharted PS4 Bundle
24) Halo XB1 Bundle
28) Star Wars LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
40) TLOU PS4 Bundle
48) Destiny LE PS4 Bundle
49) CoD LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
94) Gears XB1 Bundle

So, with one more Amazon Monthly Update missing, what do you guys think? PS4 win?
Click to expand...

Don't forget August's 24th place. I'll still call it for Xbox in October.

However, I'm surprised by the relatively weak performance of all other bundles. I expected Halo 5 to push them a lot, and not just the $500 version. I don't think customers are seeing the value in collections of old games, which is essentially where the highest value of Microsoft's bundles are. Let's see how the tomb Raider and Fallout ones do. I'm still wrapping my head around the Lego bundle. Yes, let's have a bundle with just the Lego Movie game instead of leveraging the endless marketing of the Jurassic World Blu-ray release. So weird. It has to be the case that WB simply refused.

Anyways, Maybe this month more than any other Amazon is telling a very misleading story, though, based on the type of people that buy online.
 
DriftingSpirit said:
I'm not sure how this will end up not being disappointing for SE and MS.
Click to expand...
Microsoft doesn't care about Tomb Raider sales, they sell Xbox and Xbox accessories.

They thought Tomb Raider would help fight against Uncharted, but nobody remembered this, when Uncharted was delayed. So now TR will just be sent to die.

So there will be plenty disappointment in store for MS. Tomb Raider just won't be on top of their list.
 
Sangetsu-II said:
Amazon Monthly Update (Not Final)

PS4 got ahead of Halo!:

23) Uncharted PS4 Bundle
24) Halo XB1 Bundle
28) Star Wars LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
40) TLOU PS4 Bundle
48) Destiny LE PS4 Bundle
49) CoD LE PS4 Bundle (Doesn't Count)
94) Gears XB1 Bundle

So, with one more Amazon Monthly Update missing, what do you guys think? PS4 win?
Click to expand...
Keep in mind, the orders for Halo the last few months. With that in mind, I do not think they will counter what Destiny and TLoU have done for PS4 the last few weeks. On top of that, the NDC bundle is still comfortably ahead and there is still one more update.

You all better get the shock out of your system now. The PS4 is taking October.
 
jryi said:
So there will be plenty disappointment in store for MS. Tomb Raider just won't be on top of their list.
Click to expand...

They hardly have the right to be disappointed if they're limiting the TR bundle with one retailer in US, and that chain isn't even the biggest one.
 
jryi said:
Microsoft doesn't care about Tomb Raider sales, they sell Xbox and Xbox accessories.

They thought Tomb Raider would help fight against Uncharted, but nobody remembered this, when Uncharted was delayed. So now TR will just be sent to die.

So there will be plenty disappointment in store for MS. Tomb Raider just won't be on top of their list.
Click to expand...
I feel even the potential of the title to move hardware has been squandered. Even the way MS is promoting it seems hollow. The whole thing has just been odd since it was announced to now.
 
stryke said:
They hardly have the right to be disappointed if they're limiting the TR bundle with one retailer in US, and that chain isn't even the biggest one.
Click to expand...

They really messed up because iirc the Tomb Raider Bundle isn't even coming out in Europe, where it'd do decent, maybe even better than decent.

slavesnyder said:
... and noone at Microsoft wanted to protect her.
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
jryi said:
Microsoft doesn't care about Tomb Raider sales, they sell Xbox and Xbox accessories.

They thought Tomb Raider would help fight against Uncharted, but nobody remembered this, when Uncharted was delayed. So now TR will just be sent to die.

So there will be plenty disappointment in store for MS. Tomb Raider just won't be on top of their list.
Click to expand...

Yep. Tomb Raider became irrelevant the moment the UC4 delay happened. I suspect that's partly why TR was able to get 1 year of no PS4 version too, to stop the UC4 vs TR on PS4 fight-off.

It's quite sad that MS is sending it to to die. But then again, I would rather promote Fallout 4 over virtually every other game too barring Star Wars and CoD.
 
I just hope the TR franchise survives this. It's like everything that could go wrong with this deal did. The Uncharted delay was probably the worst that could've happened to TR since MS now has no need to market it at all.
 
Im confused...

People keep saying dont forget the august preorder rank for the halo xbox one.... but don't preorders not count until the actual release date
 
Fat4all said:
They really messed up because iirc the Tomb Raider Bundle isn't even coming out in Europe, where it'd do decent, maybe even better than decent.



giphy.gif
Click to expand...

I don't even understand why they have the bundle only at one retailer in the US. TR is getting advertised but it's little more than a passing mention imo.
 
labaronx said:
Im confused...

People keep saying dont forget the august preorder rank for the halo xbox one.... but don't preorders not count until the actual release date
Click to expand...

Exactly. Those August preorders count as October sales however, not for Amazon monthly tracking. Amazon best sellers is just a trends based system not a pure total units sold.

In short August preorders don't count towards the October Amazon trends, but will for NPD.
 
Man-is-Obsolete said:
Exactly. Those August preorders count as October sales however, not for Amazon monthly tracking. Amazon best sellers is just a trends based system not a pure total units sold.

In short August preorders don't count towards the October Amazon trends, but will for NPD.
Click to expand...
Right. Amazon counts the order date, NPD the delivery, so to say.
 
I wonder how epic the steam sales for tomb raider franchise will be from now on. They will need the whole catalog to scrounge up every penny they can. Thanks satya nadella
 
ethomaz said:
MS released some last minutes bundles on Amazon (or it was Amazon?).
Click to expand...

They had a deal where you could pick any game you wanted with the purchase of any of their bundles (main reason why the Kinect bundle was selling so well). But now it seems that deal is no longer going on.
 
cruise said:
I wonder how epic the steam sales for tomb raider franchise will be from now on. They will need the whole catalog to scrounge up every penny they can. Thanks satya nadella
Click to expand...

TR games have always been fairly cheap during Steam Sales, I think I nabbed TR Anniversary for like a buck at some point, such a good game.

TR2013 will probably drop to really low this holiday.
 
Chobel said:
Actually it's coming to Europe, only UK won't have the bundle.
Click to expand...

What. The. Fuck.

Could people from the UK import it from other regions without region locking issues?

Tubie said:
They had a deal where you could pick any game you wanted with the purchase of any of their bundles (main reason why the Kinect bundle was selling so well). But now it seems that deal is no longer going on.
Click to expand...

Walmart had a deal going a day or so ago where you could get the White Gears bundle (Walmart exclusive), and extra controller (standard black, or Walmart exclusive Special Forces controller), and one of two games (New Madden or Destiny TTK) for only $350

Fucking great deal, overall. But it looks like it ended :(
 
Fat4all said:
They really messed up because iirc the Tomb Raider Bundle isn't even coming out in Europe, where it'd do decent, maybe even better than decent.
Click to expand...

It's actually coming worldwide except UK.

Yeah, it's like they're trying to not maximise TR sales.

edit - late
 
The TR bundle isn't coming to the largest retailer in the US and thus its impact in NPD will be negligible

Also the FO4 / Battlefront / Black Ops combo in November is going to be fucking crazy. So many people getting all 3
 
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