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Official April 2008 NPD thread of massive disappointment if you're not Nintendo

B

Bricfa

Member
Vilix said:
But didn't the president of Konami say MGS4 needed to sell a million on it's first day?
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's kinda ridiculous. won't happen unless mega-price-drop happens.

CcrooK said:
Worldwide, MGS4 will pass 1 million within it's first week out. I have no doubt about that.
Click to expand...

Yes. I was thinking in the U.S.
 
P

professor_t

Member
I was going to buy a PS3 as early as next week, but after looking at these numbers, I don't think that can happen.


I'm gonna buy 27 PS3s. We must fight back!!
 
T

TheLegend

Member
WOW at Wii. More surprised at PS3 and 360 though, but not in a good way.

In other news, for anyone in the NYC metro area, Sue Simmons just came with the NBC news preview, "A videogame that can make you fit? More at 11." Unfortunately no "What the FUCK are you doing" though. :lol May is going to be ridiculous for Nintendo.
 
K

Kandrick

GAF's Ed McMahon
professor_t said:
I was going to buy a PS3 as early as next week, but after looking at these numbers, I don't think that can happen.


I'm gonna buy 27 PS3s. We must fight back!!
Click to expand...

Get me one, i promise to buy PS3 games!
 
F

Future PhaZe

Member
godhandiscen said:
It seems that without the huge userbase, GTA isnt the monster everybody believed it to be. Halo 3 on the other side did move a shitload of consoles for Microsoft and sold 3.3 million units on its first NPD with a third of the installed user base of both the PS3 and 360 combined as of right now.
Click to expand...

To be honest, the marketing for Halo 3 was absolutely insane along with the hype. They did an absolutely amazing job with advertising. They reached to the hardcore gaming community with a variety of trailers, developer diaries, a beta, etc and outside of the gaming community there were multiple commercials and advertisements in tons of non gaming stores and the like.

GTA to me wasn't comparable in that aspect. It shipped outside of a booming period, it offered little in advertising until a week or so before released, and gave away very little details.

Now its still GTA and the other games probably had a similar practice, but I just think that the Halo 3 marketing was absolutely terrific and had a lot to do with its first week numbers.
 
C

CTLance

Member
Oh gawd, I'm falling further and further behind.

Is it OK if I comment on the state o this thread as of page 7 (x100) with a quote?

The lord of that servant shall come in a day when he looketh not for him, and in an hour that he is not aware of, And shall cut him asunder, and appoint him his portion with the hypocrites: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth (Matthew 24:50-51).
Click to expand...
It was the first thing that sprang to mind, and I'm an agnostic with nearly no bible education.

Holy moly, what a thread. Thanks for the NPD numbers as always, but trudging through the meltdowns can get a bit tedious. Needs less spin/system wars/OMG and more sales age.

Oh, and Okami numbers would be nice.
 
J

jacobs34

Member
godhandiscen said:
It seems that without the huge userbase, GTA isnt the monster everybody believed it to be. Halo 3 on the other side did move a shitload of consoles for Microsoft and sold 3.3 million units on its first NPD with a third of the installed user base of both the PS3 and 360 combined as of right now.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I think Microsoft did an amzing job of marketing Halo 3, much like they did with Gears of War. I don't understand why GTA wasn't pushed in the same why by either Sony or Microsoft. I've talked to a bunch of people in the last week that had no idea that GTA was even out. I don't get it. I've seen more commercials for GTA now that it has been released than I saw before it was released. I'm not goinig to keep repeating myself, but GTA did fine saleswise. It'll be interesting to see how Sony markets Metal Gear in the states and if Microsoft pushes Gears 2 the same way they pushed Gears 1.
 
L

legend166

Member
Opiate said:
I think the real economic concern for cutting edge tech in gaming isn't actually the hardware prices -- hardware always comes down in price. The PS3 will be 200 dollars within 5 years. The supercomputers of today are half their price tomorrow.

The real long term concern, I believe, is actually the cost of software development, as software development costs really do not come down, or come down so slowly that any gains made by engine development are more than superseded by the ever increasing complexity of games. Despite the fact that engines were developed heavily for the PS2/Xbox/GC, game development costs went up and up then, too, then they seemingly doubled overnight with the PS360, and then they'll increase again when the PS4/720 are made.

Unless there is an equivalently large increase in sales to compensate for those increasing costs, then there is a problem. And while the industry as a whole is booming, I'm not sure "hardcore" games are growing all that fast. Fighters are selling less, but Shooters are selling more. Racers like GT seem to be saturated. The action game market is saturated and hasn't seen significant sales deviations for years.

I think there are a few comparable examples in other genres: Point and Click Adventures, and SRPGs. There are still games made in both genres, and there are still games in both genres that receive high praise. However, because the market for these types of games is known and it isn't growing very quickly anymore, the cost of development for these types of games requires limitation. You'll see most Point and Clicks looking like they're on 10 year old tech, because that's the budget that games of their popularity warrant. Most SRPGs look like late PS1/early PS2 games these days, and it will probably stay that way.

At some point in the near future, I think most of the other "hardcore" genres will begin to reach their limit, if they haven't already. I think JRPGs are probably already there, for example. Which again, isn't a bad thing at all -- as Point and Click Adventures and SRPGs are still awesome, with many great games still being produced. It's just important to recognize that economic restraints are coming.
Click to expand...

Yeah, good post.

GTA IV cost what, 100 million? Let's say that Microsoft decided to make the same jump to the Xbox 720 that they did from the Xbox to the 360. Dev costs double. 200 million to make GTA V. If Rockstar makes $30 a copy, they're not even breaking even at 6 million units sold.

Like I said earlier, the leaps that MS and Sony, and a lot of people on GAF, keep wanting hardware to make just is not sustainable. I'm thankful that Nintendo slowed it down. Sure, I wish that they'd taken a small loss on hardware and made it a 720p machine, but that doesn't matter now. They'll most likely release a super charged Xbox 360 type system next gen and it'll all be good.
 
W

wsippel

Banned
Kintaro said:
Expectations were probably very low.
Click to expand...
I think so, too. But I guess it was profitable nevertheless. The game was already done and written off, the port probably wasn't that expensive, and there was next to no advertising.
 
I

Innotech

Banned
this is...unexpected.

Well the basic phenomenon that is obviously occurring here is that as the Wii continues to sell, more and more hardcore gamers swear off gaming. This produces the imbalanced casual heavy effect you see in the NPD. As more hardcores drop out of gaming favor, the wii sales will increase exponentially until the government mandates that everyone has to buy a Wii.
 
J

jacobs34

Member
OldJadedGamer said:
Why do people keep talking WW numbers in the NPD threads?
Click to expand...

This is your problem with this thread... really? If you are referring to me mentioning the WW numbers for the GTA launch, I'm just trying to put things into context. I'll stick to the US numbers if it would make you happy, but there are far bigger issues with this thread than a couple mentions of WW numbers.
 
A

Arde5643

Member
Innotech said:
this is...unexpected.

Well the basic phenomenon that is obviously occurring here is that as the Wii continues to sell, more and more hardcore gamers swear off gaming. This produces the imbalanced casual heavy effect you see in the NPD. As more hardcores drop out of gaming favor, the wii sales will increase exponentially until the government mandates that everyone has to buy a Wii.
Click to expand...
Universal Wii-plan?
 
V

Vilix

Unconfirmed Member
Opiate said:
I think the real economic concern for cutting edge tech in gaming isn't actually the hardware prices -- hardware always comes down in price. The PS3 will be 200 dollars within 5 years. The supercomputers of today are half their price tomorrow.

The real long term concern, I believe, is actually the cost of software development, as software development costs really do not come down, or come down so slowly that any gains made by engine development are more than superseded by the ever increasing complexity of games. Despite the fact that engines were developed heavily for the PS2/Xbox/GC, game development costs went up and up then, too, then they seemingly doubled overnight with the PS360, and then they'll increase again when the PS4/720 are made.

Unless there is an equivalently large increase in sales to compensate for those increasing costs, then there is a problem. And while the industry as a whole is booming, I'm not sure "hardcore" games are growing all that fast. Fighters are selling less, but Shooters are selling more. Racers like GT seem to be saturated. The action game market is saturated and hasn't seen significant sales deviations for years.

I think there are a few comparable examples in other genres: Point and Click Adventures, and SRPGs. There are still games made in both genres, and there are still games in both genres that receive high praise. However, because the market for these types of games is known and it isn't growing very quickly anymore, the cost of development for these types of games requires limitation. You'll see most Point and Clicks looking like they're on 10 year old tech, because that's the budget that games of their popularity warrant. Most SRPGs look like late PS1/early PS2 games these days, and it will probably stay that way.

At some point in the near future, I think most of the other "hardcore" genres will begin to reach their limit, if they haven't already. I think JRPGs are probably already there, for example. Which again, isn't a bad thing at all -- as Point and Click Adventures and SRPGs are still awesome, with many great games still being produced. It's just important to recognize that economic restraints are coming.
Click to expand...

Pfft. Pish-posh. The reason hardcore gaming isn't doing as well as last gen is because mainstream gamers don't see what's so better this gen. There's hasn't been a "must have" game so far this gen. At least nothing like FF VII, or GTA III. I think that's what it all boils down to.
 
LowParry

LowParry

Member
Bricfa said:
Yeah, that's kinda ridiculous. won't happen unless mega-price-drop happens.



Yes. I was thinking in the U.S.
Click to expand...

For the US, oh yes. I don't see it passing 1 million. Worldwise though it should have no problem at all. Should put a smile on Konami's face.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
LJ11 said:
Okami is a difficult game to market. I love the game, but its appeal is very limited.
Click to expand...
Meh, dunno. Proper marketing should make it appeal to anybody who likes mythology, stories, and pretty shit. It's Zelda with cultural baggage...and nerds are like one of the most Japan obsessed groups ever. Should do better than it has in America. :(
 
J

Jag22

Banned
legend166 said:
Yeah, good post.

GTA IV cost what, 100 million? Let's say that Microsoft decided to make the same jump to the Xbox 720 that they did from the Xbox to the 360. Dev costs double. 200 million to make GTA V. If Rockstar makes $30 a copy, they're not even breaking even at 6 million units sold.

Like I said earlier, the leaps that MS and Sony, and a lot of people on GAF, keep wanting hardware to make just is not sustainable. I'm thankful that Nintendo slowed it down. Sure, I wish that they'd taken a small loss on hardware and made it a 720p machine, but that doesn't matter now. They'll most likely release a super charged Xbox 360 type system next gen and it'll all be good.
Click to expand...


No, they won't.

Nintendo is one of the greediest game companies there is. A lot of you don't remember, but Nintendo wanted to keep the NES going, but Sega forced their hand with the Genesis.

Nintendo also didn't want to switch to the CD format because they were making so much money from the carts.

Sony forced their hand.

The only reason Nintendo even came up with the Wii was because they were facing instinction from the console market. They got absolutely dominated by Sony and their PS2, and newcomer Microsoft outsold Nintendo and their Gamecube.

It was either come up with something new, or just quit making consoles.
 
O

OldJadedGamer

Banned
jacobs34 said:
This is your problem with this thread... really? If you are referring to me mentioning the WW numbers for the GTA launch, I'm just trying to put things into context. I'll stick to the US numbers if it would make you happy, but there are far bigger issues with this thread than a couple mentions of WW numbers.
Click to expand...

My comment wasn't geared towards any one person. Just curious why there were constant mentions of WW numbers like the guy who said that DMC4 sold a million PS3. In a NPD thread, it's assumed that people are refering to US numbers since that is the topic.

It just gets confusing using WW numbers and people have to keep asking if it's US or WW and people keep having to clarify what they meant when they first posted. It's an NPD thread so I thought people would talk about... you know, NPD numbers.
 
godhandiscen

godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Dark FaZe said:
To be honest, the marketing for Halo 3 was absolutely insane along with the hype. They did an absolutely amazing job with advertising. They reached to the hardcore gaming community with a variety of trailers, developer diaries, a beta, etc and outside of the gaming community there were multiple commercials and advertisements in tons of non gaming stores and the like.

GTA to me wasn't comparable in that aspect. It shipped outside of a booming period, it offered little in advertising until a week or so before released, and gave away very little details.

Now its still GTA and the other games probably had a similar practice, but I just think that the Halo 3 marketing was absolutely terrific and had a lot to do with its first week numbers.
Click to expand...


jacobs34 said:
Yeah. I think Microsoft did an amzing job of marketing Halo 3, much like they did with Gears of War. I don't understand why GTA wasn't pushed in the same why by either Sony or Microsoft. I've talked to a bunch of people in the last week that had no idea that GTA was even out. I don't get it. I've seen more commercials for GTA now that it has been released than I saw before it was released. I'm not goinig to keep repeating myself, but GTA did fine saleswise. It'll be interesting to see how Sony markets Metal Gear in the states and if Microsoft pushes Gears 2 the same way they pushed Gears 1.
Click to expand...


You guys are right. The hype that the marketing for Halo generated in my university was sick. People were advertising tournaments and game fuel drinks (game fuel mixed with some alcohol) a week before launch. Insane. If I wasn't part of GAF, I wouldn't know GTA was already out.
 
X

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
No post of this image yet? Gaf fails...

wiicomic19.jpg
 
A

Akai

Member
Jag22 said:
The only reason Nintendo even came up with the Wii was because they were facing instinction from the console market. They got absolutely dominated by Sony and their PS2, and newcomer Microsoft outsold Nintendo and their Gamecube.

It was either come up with something new, or just quit making consoles.
Click to expand...

You do realize that Nintendo was STILL making a healthy profit with the Gamecube, right? They were never going to quit making consoles, Wii or not... :lol
 
P

pgtl_10

Member
Jag22 said:
No, they won't.

Nintendo is one of the greediest game companies there is. A lot of you don't remember, but Nintendo wanted to keep the NES going, but Sega forced their hand with the Genesis.

Nintendo also didn't want to switch to the CD format because they were making so much money from the carts.

Sony forced their hand.

The only reason Nintendo even came up with the Wii was because they were facing instinction from the console market. They got absolutely dominated by Sony and their PS2, and newcomer Microsoft outsold Nintendo and their Gamecube.

It was either come up with something new, or just quit making consoles.
Click to expand...

So Nintendo not wanting me to buy a console every four years makes them greedy?

Also if I remember correctly Nintendo teamed up with Sony for a CD add-on for the SNES only to realize that Sony's cheaper format would make all the money and Nintendo would be left out in the cold.
 
P

Pachael

Member
legend166 said:
Yeah, good post.

GTA IV cost what, 100 million? Let's say that Microsoft decided to make the same jump to the Xbox 720 that they did from the Xbox to the 360. Dev costs double. 200 million to make GTA V. If Rockstar makes $30 a copy, they're not even breaking even at 6 million units sold.

Like I said earlier, the leaps that MS and Sony, and a lot of people on GAF, keep wanting hardware to make just is not sustainable. I'm thankful that Nintendo slowed it down. Sure, I wish that they'd taken a small loss on hardware and made it a 720p machine, but that doesn't matter now. They'll most likely release a super charged Xbox 360 type system next gen and it'll all be good.
Click to expand...

Doubt it. Graphically wise I think Nintendo will follow the marginal cost argument now that they've successfully shown that they don't need those high-powered chips to deliver. So we'll likely see something like the improvement from GBA -> DS for the next Nintendo console, which may make things nicer but it won't be 720p. 480p will still be around. It's design and gameplay that counts in Nintendo-land.
 
J

Jag22

Banned
Akai said:
You do realize that Nintendo was STILL making a healthy profit with the Gamecube, right? They were never going to quit making consoles, Wii or not... :lol
Click to expand...

If the Gamecube was the PS2 of last generation. The Wii wouldn't exist.

It would just be a new Nintendo console with the same controls.
 
MisterHero

MisterHero

Super Member
Jag22 said:
No, they won't.

Nintendo is one of the greediest game companies there is. A lot of you don't remember, but Nintendo wanted to keep the NES going, but Sega forced their hand with the Genesis.

Nintendo also didn't want to switch to the CD format because they were making so much money from the carts.

Sony forced their hand.

The only reason Nintendo even came up with the Wii was because they were facing instinction from the console market. They got absolutely dominated by Sony and their PS2, and newcomer Microsoft outsold Nintendo and their Gamecube.

It was either come up with something new, or just quit making consoles.
Click to expand...
Iwata-SUN.png

Miyamoto-EARTH.png

Reggie-MOON.png
 
L

legend166

Member
Jag22 said:
No, they won't.

Nintendo is one of the greediest game companies there is. A lot of you don't remember, but Nintendo wanted to keep the NES going, but Sega forced their hand with the Genesis.

Nintendo also didn't want to switch to the CD format because they were making so much money from the carts.

Sony forced their hand.

The only reason Nintendo even came up with the Wii was because they were facing instinction from the console market. They got absolutely dominated by Sony and their PS2, and newcomer Microsoft outsold Nintendo and their Gamecube.

It was either come up with something new, or just quit making consoles.
Click to expand...

What are you arguing here? That their next console will be less powerful than an Xbox 360? Despite the fact they'll be able to make a super charged one, sell it for $250 and still make a healthy profit? Despite the fact that in 5 years HDTVs penetration will actually mean something?

I don't understand what you're saying.
 
S

santouras

Member
Vilix said:
Pfft. Pish-posh. The reason hardcore gaming isn't doing as well as last gen is because mainstream gamers don't see what's so better this gen. There's hasn't been a "must have" game so far this gen. At least nothing like FF VII, or GTA III. I think that's what it all boils down to.
Click to expand...
you've got to be kidding me right. GTA4, Gears, Halo3 have all been deemed to be "must have" games, especially GTA4. To say that there are no must have, or games that have been deemed must have, this gen is some seriously flakey spin
 
J

Jag22

Banned
Akai said:
You do realize that Nintendo was STILL making a healthy profit with the Gamecube, right? They were never going to quit making consoles, Wii or not... :lol
Click to expand...

Really? Really?

Nintendo shares dive on losses

Consumers, however, got a price cut. Nintendo said it will slash the price of its games consoles in Europe and Japan in order to boost Christmas sales.

Nintendo has already cut the price of its GameCube home-use console in the US, taking it just below the psychological barrier of $100 to boost flagging sales.

The firm said it now expects to report a loss of 3bn yen ($27m; £16.2m) for the six months to end-September 2003.
Click to expand...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3166940.stm
 
tfur

tfur

Member
Parmenides said:
April NPD (2007)

DS 471k
WII 360k
PS2 194k
PSP 183k
360 174k
PS3 82k
Click to expand...

So, for April over last year...
Code: 
      (2007)     (2008)      
DS    471k       414
WII   360k       714
PS2   194k       124
PSP   183k       192
360   174k       188
PS3    82k       187

Wii and PS3 doubled, DS and PS2 had a little drop, and PSP and 360 had a slight gain.

Is there more drama in this thread than the numbers reveal?
 
J

Jirotrom

Member
Pachael said:
Doubt it. Graphically wise I think Nintendo will follow the marginal cost argument now that they've successfully shown that they don't need those high-powered chips to deliver. So we'll likely see something like the improvement from GBA -> DS for the next Nintendo console, which may make things nicer but it won't be 720p. 480p will still be around. It's design and gameplay that counts in Nintendo-land.
Click to expand...
I can't agree with this... im more than willing to bet their next system will output HD... we are talking 3 and half to 4 years from now.
 
N

Narag

Member
Jirotrom said:
I can't agree with this... im more than willing to bet their next system will output HD... we are talking 3 and half to 4 years from now.
Click to expand...

Agreed. HD capable systems shouldn't be expensive to produce at that time and as such they'll be able to maintain a low entry price, as will MS and Sony.
 
L

LCGeek

formerly sane
legend166 said:
What are you arguing here? That their next console will be less powerful than an Xbox 360? Despite the fact they'll be able to make a super charged one, sell it for $250 and still make a healthy profit? Despite the fact that in 5 years HDTVs penetration will actually mean something?

I don't understand what you're saying.
Click to expand...

Only tech idiots make that argument. Even if nintendo went cheap the power of the ps3/360 by 2k12 will be so hosed by the newer and mid grade tech it's not even funny. Ironic that either group would argue such a thing when nintendo makes good tech or invest in it which MS so far has demonstrated it will spend a ton of money on a product that never performs as they say it does, hey at least this time they learned own what you produce. Sony has never been tech king of a generation it's all hype. PSX n64 and unrealeased systems were better and last generation PS2 was killed by the potential of either GC/Xbox. Yet nintndo says hey I'm not joining this pissing contest and instantly they don't spend enough on tech and will always be on the low side. Wii is one gigantic cluster fuck of myths, cliches, and stupidity of both consumers and producers in the industry. Not to say all are but are lot so clueless.
 
S

Sharp

Member
tfur said:
So, for April over last year...
Code: 
      (2007)     (2008)      
DS    471k       414
WII   360k       714
PS2   194k       124
PSP   183k       192
360   174k       188
PS3    82k       187

Wii and PS3 doubled, DS and PS2 had a little drop, and PSP and 360 had a slight gain.

Is there more drama in this thread than the numbers reveal?
Click to expand...
GTA IV, multiple price drops, and a huge number of other changes later, the results for the HD consoles were supposed to have a big boost this month. Everyone was predicting it. That they didn't pretty much confirms what Odysseus has been saying for the past few years: one game isn't going to change everything all at once.
 
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