W E E K 17
"It's Complicated"
Of the 16 games, 12 of them directly impact playoffs and seeding (Sorry Tennessee/NE and Dolphins/Jets and Chargers/Bills) and one of them (Jags/Texans) could (I think?), if a bunch of balls bounce Smokey's way.
Niners (10-5, 7-4) vs. Packers (2-13)
Implications:
FMT is win and in.
Complications:
It can get really messy at the 10-6 spot in the NFC. Either DCX or Eznark will be 10-6, along with Bowser, and BigBoss.
Seahawks (8-7, 6-6) vs. Raiders (4-2, 9-3)
Implications:
Bluemax's playoff dream is over, but Soka has a bunch of advantages for the 5 spot in the AFC (Crimson clinched the division already). Soka beat Splat H2H in week 1 (22-20), which means if they finish with the same record, Splat gets the lower seed or left out.
Complications:
This gets most interesting in the case where, Soka, Splat Brent and Smokey all finish 9-7. Soka has far and away the best conference record of the group and with a win in Week 17, Smokey would have an 8-4 Conference record and could jump into the sixth seed.
Redskins (8-7, 4-7) vs. Eagles (10-4*, 7-3)
Implications:
A win against Az in Week 16* means that CB would be 11-4, with the best conference record of the other 11 win teams (Rams/Vikings) and no head to head games against either of them this year (so that conference record is even more important).
Complications:
As long as he beats Az, none really. But if he drops the game to Az, slips to 10-5 (the last time the Redskins and Eagles met it was a one possession game) and this game has a little bit more meaning for Bowser. Because it means that the Eagles and Cowboys could both finish 10-6, with identical division and conference records of 7-5...
Ravens (2-13) vs. Steelers (11-4, 8-3)
Implications:
This game is just about seeding in the AFC. After a near-historic collapse for the Bengals, the Steelers retain yet another division title.
Complications:
A three-way tie at 12-4 means Colts get the 1 seed, a two way tie between Colts and Steelers mean the Colts get the 1 seed, a two way tie between the Colts and the Chiefs mean the Chiefs get the 1 seed because of the H2H win earlier this season.
Rams (11-4, 7-4) vs. Cardinals (8-7, 5-6)
Implications:
NFC West is still up for grabs. LJ and FMT split 1-1 this season, but FMT holds the division record tiebreaker (4-2 vs 2-3). So if LJ wins, he wins the division. But, he'll have to #askphee who shut out LJ 28-0 when they met earlier this season.
Complications:
If LJ loses, and FMT wins, it eliminates all 9-7 teams from the playoffs, because it sets the Wildcard bar for the 5 seed at 11 wins.
Panthers (8-6*, 7-4) vs. Bengals (9-6, 7-5)
Implications:
The unplayed game with the Eagles kind of matters here. A win against CB puts a ton of weight on this game for Az, a loss to CB likely ends the season. 10 wins is going to be the Wild Card bar (for the 6th seed, fifth seed will likely be an 11-win team) in the NFC. Similarly likely that the Wild Card pool will draw from 10-win teams in the AFC, so to stay in contention, Splat needs a win here.
Complications:
A Splat loss here, along with losses by Buffalo, Cleveland and the Raiders unlock the Texans playoff potential. But as soon as two of those teams win their tenth game, the Texans get the bottle, binky and bedtime.
Giants (6-9) vs. Colts (11-4, 9-3)
Implications:
See Steelers/Ravens. This game is about seeding 1-3 in the AFC.
Complications:
Same as above.
Falcons (9-5-Pheenix, 8-3) vs. Saints (10-5, 7-4)
Implications:
It's all real complicated. Not just for the South but for the entire NFC playoff picture.
Complications:
With eznark's pending sim win, this means the NFC Wild Card gets real complicated.
Of the potential 10-6 teams, here's how they fared Head to Head.
Falcons: beat the Cowboys, DNP: Niners, Bears - and they hold the Conference advantage.
Which is why the flash play-the-CPU right at the advance is so fucked up (DCX lost to DM earlier this year 24-23). And this game was actually so important because of the conference tiebreaker, that with a loss to DM, DCX conference record would be 7-5 and at 10-6, would've put a pretty significant multi directional tie into play with the potentially 10-6 Bears (7-5 conference) and the Cowboys (7-5) conference.
Did DCX know that a free win against DM would give him the inside track on the conference record tiebreaker at 10 wins? It's right there on the fucking website.
Even if DCX lost to DM, he still could've taken the division from eznark with a win.
The real losers in CPUGate are LostBigBoss, Bowser and Eznark.
Browns (9-6, 7-5) vs. Bucs (5-10)
Implications:
Brent misses the playoffs with a loss here. But it's not as simple as win and in.
Complications:
If the Bengals and Browns and Raiders all win, they sit at 10-6. Both AFC North teams finish 7-5 in the conference and the Raiders finish 9-3 in the conference. But, that means the Division tiebreaker eliminates either Brent or Splat first.
So:
H2H the Bengals and Browns split.
Conference they are identical.
The Common games.
Panthers: CIN Pending CLE Win
Chargers: CIN Loss CLE Win
Raiders: CIN Loss CLE Loss
Chiefs: CIN Loss CLE Loss
Saints: CIN Loss CLE Win
Bucs: CIN Win CLE Pending
Falcons: CIN Win CLE Loss
Broncos: CIN Win CLE Win
So in common games outside of their division:
CIN (3-4)
CLE (4-3)
If Cleveland beats the Bucs, they are in, because they cannot be caught by the Bengals for the Common Wins tiebreaker.
And then because Soka beat both CLE and CIN this year, he's the 5 seed with a win.
Bills (9-6) vs. Chargers (5-10)
Implications:
None? The Bills win the AFC east either way and can't move out of the 4 seed. Don't get anyone hurt.
Bears (9-6, 6-5) vs. Lions
Implications:
Bears must win to get to the 10 win threshold to angle for the 6 seed in the NFC.
Complications:
But, if 10-6 is crowded by 3 or more teams, they'll each be from a different division (Saints or Falcons, Bears and Cowboys).
Which means the first tiebreaker is head to head sweep if all of these teams have played each other. And they haven't.
So we can just jump to conference record where if DCX loses to Eznark, even if DCX still wins the division, Eznark's conference record is 8-4, which eliminates Boss and Bowser.
If Carlos loses, this is actually best outcome for the NFC. It means Eznark/DCX both make the playoffs and two of the most dangerous offensive teams (Cowboys and Bears) are stuck on the outside looking in.
If Eznark loses to DCX that makes the conference records identical for Cowboys, Bears and Saints. Which means common Opponents, but you need a minimum of 4 - and these teams only have 3.
Rams:
Eagles:
Bucs:
So then it comes down to Strength of Victory. Which I don't know how to calculate. So basically, Madden.
But, this all gets a lot simpler when you look at the final game.
Vikings (11-4, 7-4) vs. Cowboys (9-6, 6-5)
Implications:
Bye week at stake for birdles.
Playoff chance on the line for Bowser.
Complications:
Bowserloss means he drops to 9-7, the three way race above becomes a two way race between BigBoss and the Saints who have identical conference records and the following Common Games:
Eagles: CHI Loss NO Win
Bucs: CHI Loss NO Win and a Loss
Lions: CHI Win + Pending NO Win
Seahawks: CHI Loss NO Win
CHI (1-3 & Pending)
NO (4-1)
So even with a loss against DCX, Eznark still gets in based on common games.
Finally, with all of that done, Predictions.
1. Rams
2. Vikings
3. Eagles
4. Falcons
5. Niners
6. Saints
1. Chiefs
2. Steelers
3. Colts
4. Bills
5. Raiders
6. Browns