bionic77 said:
I think the home teams with a bye win something crazy like 80% of the time so it isn't that farfetched.
Getting the bye is a huge advantage.
Yeah your best odds are 3 home teams and 1 road team winning.
My best cases for each of those losses being.
Saints - lost last 3, swagger gone
Vikings - Turnovers, Cowboys are on a hot streak, Cowboy fans travel well taking that homefield down a notch. Childress vs. Favre for a playoff game could get off-sync quickly.
Colts - lost rhythm, statistically bad team after they rest. Run D vs. Ray Rice is a matchup nightmare.
Chargers - Jets D is the real D, Sanchez did not look like a rookie yet in the playoffs so assuming otherwise is no given. Sanchez back in SoCal weather.
My best case for those same 4 teams winning
Saints - We've gotten heathy in big areas. Vet team that knows what it needs to do. Domefield advantage (card fans don't travel well), got to be top5 homefield advantages in the NFL. Cards on short week after emotional win. Kurt Warner played the best game of his career last week, the likely-hood of topping/repeating that are slim. If Greenbay doesn't start the game with the 2 quick turnovers, they won easily.
Vikings - Favre is about as seasoned as it gets. Cowboys RB's are a bit banged up, they may have to keep passing more then they'd want if they get up on Minny.. Jarred Allen will like that. Also Romo threw about 3 ducks that should have been easy picks vs. the eagles, but they choked on holding onto them. This last game could have just as easily been a disaster for Romo if the Eagles typically great secondary play lived up.
Colts - Ravens have some serious issues passing, and the Colts have the bend, but don't break D. Also, did Tom Brady play a bad game, or did the Ravens play an amazing game? Hard to say definitively there. No huddle offense.
Chargers - San Diego definitely has a much more capable offense then the Bengals, and one that can definitely challenge the #1 D in the NFL for some points. Sanchez is going to have to pass at some point in this game, will he have some more rookie moments? Sproles is a miss-match for just about every team in the NFL. I saw Pierre Thomas run all over the Jets D with a similar run style (quick and shifty). I also think you need a capable TE to hang with the Jets D, and SD definitely has one of those.