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[Biske]

I definitely will purchase it, as it looks like a high quality game and I'm a sicker for Mario, but most people on their phones aren't whale gamers and to them it looks like Nintendo are charging a ludicrous amount.

Probably, but as the world shifts more and more to mobile, I feel like this kind of thing has to happen more and more.

I'm not sure if most companies can put out products for a dollar and then keep dripping out content for a dollar more.

I'm not sure why people want to live in that world.


Remember when having to pay for on disc DLC and such was so egregious? Have we all forgotten about how much we hate getting a game and the game constantly telling us 'You know this is FREE!! but if you REALLY want to play, buy this little thing!'


I Know a lot of people are caught up in the business, cause hanging on every business decision as a "gamer" is some new hobby.

But as a person who likes to play games, a company like nintendo putting out a game and saying, its 10 bucks, and thats it, all the content, seems like exactly the kind of thing I want.


Pokemon Go is "free" and I can buy all the stuff I need, but it sucks, I hate playing the game cause it's not a game and so much of it is locked behind arbitrary shit and every time I've bought some pokeballs or incubators, only to lose the pokeballs in a day cause the catch and run rates are fucking bullshit, or hatched a shitty Onix from an egg, I've thought "fuck this, I'd rather play a real game and pay for it upfront"


There is no world where I want to download a mario game on my phone and pay money to get a fire flower or to attempt that world of levels again instead of waiting for some fucking daily counter to be able to play again.

 

[Realeza]

but how many actually bought the game?

Let's be conservative and say 10 percent. Now figure out how much that is.

 

[Living the Dream]

Let's be conservative and say 10 percent. Now figure out how much that is.

10% ain't conservative for mobile.

 

[Ghostshark]

I'm much more positive about the game now that I've had more time to play it. I think the issues regarding the game have been purely marketing related. They should have explicitly said "demo" instead of free on the app.

The game also appears to have meager content upon initially playing. You will blow through the "campaign" of the game quickly, but the additional coin collecting really does increase the replayability. The toad rally initially seems super gated with the tickets, but they are eventually throw them at you faster than you can play the mode.

 

[ksamedi]

Im guessing either miyamito wants to brag about high conversion rate of 10% and is hoping it will reach it the coming days, or Nintendo is holding back download info because the conversion rate is about 5% which is very normal but will provoke a lot of 'I told you so Nintendo doomed' comments.

This is just the beginning for Mario downloads. In a year or so this title will probably have passed 500 million downloads with 25 million paid downloads and 250 plus revenue plus a huge boost in othet mario businesses and a good learning opportunity for Nintendo.

Id say bring on Mario Kart too.

 

[Ghostshark]

Id say bring on Mario Kart too.

I would kill for a mobile mario kart. I'm not sure how well the online multiplayer would work, but it would destroy any productivity I have left.

 

[KingSnake]

In a year or so this title will probably have passed 500 million downloads with 25 million paid downloads and 250 plus revenue

And that would probably barely match the NSMBU revenue on the failure that was Wii U.

 

[magash]

And that would probably barely match the NSMBU revenue on the failure that was Wii U.

The thing is Nintendo's mobile strategy has to do with creating games using their most beloved IP's in order to raise awareness and direct some of the mobile gamers into buying their games on their dedicated hardware.

 

[KingSnake]

The thing is Nintendo's mobile strategy has to do with creating games using their most beloved IP's in order to raise awareness and direct some of the mobile gamers into buying their games on their dedicated hardware.

No, it's not fully true. Otherwise SMR would have been free. It has to do with both. Raise brand awareness and revenues. We'll see the impact that it will have on Mario games on console.

 

[sir_kevith]

And that would probably barely match the NSMBU revenue on the failure that was Wii U.

But how much work went into making NSMBU vs Runner? That would be awesome for Nintendo if the revenue matched.

 

[KingSnake]

But how much work went into making NSMBU vs Runner? That would be awesome for Nintendo if the revenue matched.

The runner re-uses the assets from NSMBU who re-used assets from NSMB. The same assets where used also in NSLU and SMM (who started as an internal tool for building the Mario 2d games). So I guess it's pretty difficult to assess the pure individual cost for each.

 

[Skittzo0413]

No, it's not fully true. Otherwise SMR would have been free. It has to do with both. Raise brand awareness and revenues. We'll see the impact that it will have on Mario games on console.

They have actually said that their experimentation with pricing models has to do with ensuring that their brands retain a certain value. If mobile gamers suddenly find Mario is free, then their strategy of convincing them to buy $200-300 hardware and $40-60 software gets a bit more difficult. The high price tag is likely intentional here to attempt to preserve that value around the Mario brand.

That said, they obviously are interested in the mobile revenue as well. But the pricing does play into their mobile marketing strategy.

 

[chillybright]

Let's be conservative and say 10 percent. Now figure out how much that is.

In mobile conservative would be like 1%.

 

[modsbox]

What really surprises me is that according to the stock price, investors expected it to perform even better. Even better than smashing essentially every record by like 10x?

I don't get it.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=TYO:7974&ei=lgBbWMmUG8zMjAGGtbqoBQ

 

[Ratros]

Let's be conservative and say 10 percent. Now figure out how much that is.

The Verge reports 8%. So, it's roughly 40 million * 8% * 10 * 0.7 = 22.4 million USD income for Nintendo.

40 million: # of Downloads
8%: Conversion Rate
10: Price (USD) of Mario Run
0.7: Nintendo's cut from AppStore revenues

"Mario is arguably the most popular gaming franchise in the world, yet we see only about 8% of those who try the game actually purchasing it," said Sensor Tower analyst Spencer Gabriel. "I don't think this is a statement on the game's quality ... but rather the perceived value when compared to free-to-play games that offer much more content with optional microtransactions that enable players to experience it sooner."

http://fortune.com/2016/12/21/nintendo-super-mario-run-price/

Found another source.

 

[chillybright]

The Verge reports 8%. So, it's roughly 40 million * 8% * 10 * 0.7 = 22.4 million USD income for Nintendo.

Apple takes like 30%.

 

[oti]

Let's be conservative and say 10 percent. Now figure out how much that is.

10% is the opposite of conservative. This would be earth shattering.

 

[yyr]

And yet, they have said they aren't going to be adding any new content to the game because in their eyes it was a "failure." I don't understand Nintendo.

...sometimes I think even Nintendo doesn't understand Nintendo.

I'm pretty sure they're not adding any content to the game because they never planned to add any content to the game, regardless of how it was received.

As already mentioned in this thread, Miyamoto literally said, in the press release itself, they believe the number of purchases will increase, and I believe them.

The number of purchases will not increase significantly from this point forward.

This is not a knock on SMR or a reflection of its quality, just the reality of the video game market. Purchases are highest on day one, then they decrease. This is especially true for something as promoted as SMR was. Most folks knew about SMR on day one, and made their purchasing decision within the first few days.

Someone literally told me they will never pay for a mobile game, they only pay for microtransactions. Most of these are just trial downloads, but still good for brand awareness and whatnot. Mario still relevant.

I would argue that the thousands of folks leaving 1-star reviews simply because of Nintendo's poor decision to market SMR as "free with in-app purchase" rather than a paid app with separate demo (leading many people to erroneously believe that it was F2P) are bad for brand awareness. Their opinion of the brand went down a notch. You could say "Nintendo isn't interested in those people," but I would argue that all word of mouth is important, and that you want it to be positive.

 

[Realeza]

The Verge reports 8%. So, it's roughly 40 million * 8% * 10 * 0.7 = 22.4 million USD income for Nintendo.

Well of that's true then it sounds pretty damn good to me. The game probably cost nothing to make.

 

[samar11]

They have actually said that their experimentation with pricing models has to do with ensuring that their brands retain a certain value. If mobile gamers suddenly find Mario is free, then their strategy of convincing them to buy $200-300 hardware and $40-60 software gets a bit more difficult. The high price tag is likely intentional here to attempt to preserve that value around the Mario brand.

That said, they obviously are interested in the mobile revenue as well. But the pricing does play into their mobile marketing strategy.

Ah, didnt think of it that way. Kind of makes sense I guess lol

 

[avaya]

Well of that's true then it sounds pretty damn good to me. The game probably cost nothing to make.

It's making less than a tenth of a normal game. It's the very definition of "not good".

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Let's be conservative and say 10 percent. Now figure out how much that is.

I don't think you understand what "conservative" means.

The Verge reports 8%. So, it's roughly 40 million * 8% * 10 * 0.7 = 22.4 million USD income for Nintendo.

You have to account for Apple's slice of the pie.

 

[Realeza]

It's making less than a tenth of a normal game. It's the very definition of "not good".

What? How much you think this cost to make?

 

[Ratros]

I don't think you understand what "conservative" means.

You have to account for Apple's slice of the pie.

Yeah, that's why there is a 0.7 in the equation.

 

[hemo memo]

The Verge reports 8%. So, it's roughly 40 million * 8% * 10 * 0.7 = 22.4 million USD income for Nintendo.

22.4 million in 4 days is not bad.

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

8% conversion is surprising.

I can't imagine they will adopt the same monetization for their non mario franchises.

Hopefully we see some pokemon picross style, you spend this much on microtransactions > unlock the whole game type charity.

Animal crossing may destroy wallets

 

[mugurumakensei]

8% conversion is surprising.

I can't imagine they will adopt the same monetization for their non mario franchises.

Nintendo has already said it plans to monetize FE in traditional F2P fashion. I think Nintendo just hedged it's bets on Mario's brand. I imagine a Mario game being ready near the switch launch was another factor in monetization strategy.

 

[KingSnake]

Ruh-roh

Spoiler

just joking, no need to panic yet.

via ZhugeEX on twitter.

 

[Toadthemushroom]

The Verge reports 8%. So, it's roughly 40 million * 8% * 10 * 0.7 = 22.4 million USD income for Nintendo.

40 million: # of Downloads
8%: Conversion Rate
10: Price (USD) of Mario Run
0.7: Nintendo's cut from AppStore revenues

"Mario is arguably the most popular gaming franchise in the world, yet we see only about 8% of those who try the game actually purchasing it," said Sensor Tower analyst Spencer Gabriel. "I don't think this is a statement on the game's quality ... but rather the perceived value when compared to free-to-play games that offer much more content with optional microtransactions that enable players to experience it sooner."

Found another source.

http://fortune.com/2016/12/21/nintendo-super-mario-run-price/

Found another source.

The Fortune paragraph with the Sensor Tower analyst strikes me as odd...surely if 8.8% of buyers pay the $10, that's actually a better indication of value versus a free to play game where less players spend anything at all?

Only 2.2% of free-to-play users ever pay - Report

Only 3.5% of gamers make in-app purchases - AppsFlyer

Since he mentions "perceived value" I don't think he should be talking about the percentage of payers, but the amount each payer is putting in.

 

[KingSnake]

So the 8%: Conversion Rate is sourced from Sensor Tower who got very wrongly the total downloads number (25 vs. 40)?

They talk about some 2.1 million who paid and that would actually be 5.25 conversion rate from the real number of downloads. Which is more in line with previous data.

 

[yophlow]

For years I was absolutely convinced that

a) Nintendo games would smash records on iOS. And...
b) Nintendo games would do very very well on the playstation / xbox ecosystems.

I'm surprised how many people disagreed with both statements on GAF and elsewhere. First one appears to have been true, anyway.

Congrats Nintendo. Your IP is your astonishing strength.

I totally agree with you. Their IP is astonishing, and extraordinarily powerful. There was never any doubt in my mind that an App Store Mario game would decimate all records.

BUT!

If Nintendo went third party and released their games on other platforms only, their strength will absolutely diminish over time. It's not that Mario and Zelda games aren't good, but so much of current sales are still driven by nostalgia. 5-10 years after going third party, that nostalgia would decrease significantly, and then what happens when the new Zelda or Mario is released on the PS5? Among all the ridiculously quality games that continue to be released, it's hard for even Nintendo to maintain their level of power.

Hell, what if they released a game of comparable quality to Skyward Sword or Mario Sunshine? The reaction would be "Yeah, they're alright games. When does Dark Souls 7 come out again?"

 

[LordKano]

So the 8%: Conversion Rate is sourced from Sensor Tower who got very wrongly the total downloads number (25 vs. 40)?

They talk about some 2.1 million who paid and that would actually be 5.25 conversion rate from the real number of downloads. Which is more in line with previous data.

Yep. AppAnnie reported a 4% ratio for the first day, so that's probably more in line with the actual data. If we take the middle-range, 5%, that means from the 40 millions download a rough total of 20M$ revenue.

 

[gogogow]

Hell, what if they released a game of comparable quality to Skyward Sword or Mario Sunshine? The reaction would be "Yeah, they're alright games. When does Dark Souls 7 come out again?"

Let's not kid ourselves, Nintendo's IPs are some of the strongest in the gamesindustry.
I love the Soulsborne games, but even Nintendo's first party games on the fricking Wii U sells better than any of the Soulsborne games by quite a margin.

 

[wonderful103]

The runner re-uses the assets from NSMBU who re-used assets from NSMB. The same assets where used also in NSLU and SMM (who started as an internal tool for building the Mario 2d games). So I guess it's pretty difficult to assess the pure individual cost for each.

Wii U games are all new assets, generally much higher res (insert Ragnarokx signal here). Though I'm certain some music was reused.

 

[Malakai]

maybe nintendo will realize finally
their ips are very appealing, their hardware and platform, not at all
people don't buy nintendo hardware, because they want to or like it. just because they forced to and can't get the games anywhere else. that is not the best approach imho


i would buy mario cart instantly on ps4 or xbox one. but i would never buy a nintendo console especially not for a higher price
not sure how long that business model will work for nintendo

Okay. Then why do people buy consoles in general for? People, in general, purchases consoles in order to play games. Also, if Nintendo's hardware isn't appealing, then why did people buy any of Nintendo handhelds? What other devices that other people could have had purchased during the 90's and 00's that played games on the go? Apparently, Nintendo hardware had some appeal. What about the Wii remote? One cannot argue that hardware was appealing.

 

[ViciousDS]

I would kill for a mobile mario kart. I'm not sure how well the online multiplayer would work, but it would destroy any productivity I have left.

I would have to restore my phone


MARIO run just crashes every time I launch it

 

[Living the Dream]

I would have to restore my phone


MARIO run just crashes every time I launch it

Was your phone ever jailbroken?

 

[MysticLeviathan]

As others have already mentioned, 40 million downloads doesn't mean 40 million $10 purchases. The number of people who actually purchased the game is a fraction of that number, so this is misleading.

It's easy to download a free trial for a title that can easily be deleted within a few hours, it takes a bit more to spend $10 on said app for the full experience.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

As others have already mentioned, 40 million downloads doesn't mean 40 million $10 purchases. The number of people who actually purchased the game is a fraction of that number, so this is misleading.

It's easy to download a free trial for a title that can easily be deleted within a few hours, it takes a bit more to spend $10 on said app for the full experience.

 

[Jack The Nipper]

So they will easily break 100 million life time downloads. Now they need to find how to sell it

 

[infiniteloop]

already slipped from the top spot of grossing in the US. Figured it would be there until early Jan at least.

 

[qko]

"bu-bu-but the potential ad money!!!"

Isn't this just one huge ad for 3DS Mario games anyway?

40 million people downloaded. If they liked it will want to play more mario and will drop $10 on the game or even more on a 3DS to play Super Mario Maker. If they hated it, some will still buy a 3DS or wait in the cold for an NES classic and would rather play "real" mario...

the percentage of people that bought it does not matter. 40 million people downloaded this ad. That doubles the amount of views on Youtube for the Switch (Nintendo's highest viewed video on Youtube), and 40 million downloads on unique devices vs 22 million views with the possibilities of fanboys who watched it 200 times by now.

 

[flozuki]

already slipped from the top spot of grossing in the US. Figured it would be there until early Jan at least.

Pretty sure it will be back over the holidays and the conversion rate will be at a high in the upcoming seven days. This might also be the time where we get some sales figures.

 

[rnaud]

A funny take on "What if SMR was free to play":

http://www.pocketgamer.co.uk/r/iPhone/Super+Mario+Run/feature.asp?c=72473

 

[Sterok]

The Run doesn't stop. Looks like 50 million now.

 

[Living the Dream]

The Run doesn't stop. Looks like 50 million now.

None of this matters. People either pay $10 or they don't. And they aren't in any high percentages.

 

[Jpop]

None of this matters. People either pay $10 or they don't. And they aren't in any high percentages.

It actually does matter though.

Constant download numbers shows an interest in the IP and Nintendo software.

Conversion rates are good for mobile games the issue is that a one time pay does not feed into the nickel and dining that is mobile software.

Do I think MR could make a lot more as a game with micro transactions? Of course I do.

Do I think it would go against Nintendo's mobile philosophy? I think it would.

Do I think the brand awareness Nintendo can regain through mobile offerings is good enough to forgoe the increased profit? I do.

 

[Living the Dream]

It actually does matter though.

Constant download numbers shows an interest in the IP and Nintendo software.

Conversion rates are good for mobile games the issue is that a one time pay does not feed into the nickel and dining that is mobile software.

Do I think MR could make a lot more as a game with micro transactions? Of course I do.

Do I think it would go against Nintendo's mobile philosophy? I think it would.

Do I think the brand awareness Nintendo can regain through mobile offerings is good enough to forgoe the increased profit? I do.

My main concern is that if 5% buy it at $10, then it's 45 million who decided not to give a single dime or that Mario is worth $10. That's not a good precedent or momentum.

 

[Jpop]

My main concern is that if 5% buy it at $10, then it's 45 million who decided not to give a single dime or that Mario is worth $10. That's not a good precedent or momentum.

Do you know what the regular conversion for mobile customers is in games with IAP versus single time purchases is?

 

[Living the Dream]

Do you know what the regular conversion for mobile customers is in games with IAP versus single time purchases is?

I remember seeing it's like 4%, but I think Nintendo should be above that.