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Official October 2008 NPD Results
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Basileus777
Member
just tray said:
Too bad Gears sold more its first weekend than LBP will LTD.
plagiarize
Banned
i love npd threads even if they're going to get me fired one day. wow this one took a lot of reading.
the wii continues to upset hardcore gamers. 360 fans continue to hold onto software sales. ps3 fans continue to hold onto brand loyalty.
really guys? you still believe there's some nebulous group of gamers loyal enough to wait three years for the right price drop yet who refuse to pay the current price or buy the competitions consoles which get ever closer to the right price.
$200 was always a magic number, maybe it's $250 now, but the PS3 is at least two price drops away from a number like that. the 360 pro has dropped $100 in three years. the PS3 $200 in two. there's no question who's hurting the most on hardware here and who is hurting the least (nintendo hurting the least obviously).
the ps3 is overpriced. no two ways about it. it has been since launch. it doesn't represent enough value to enough people for it to compete with it's peers.
the thing is that you don't get forever to get to that fair price. traditionally price drops only cause short term spikes. eventually your console gets an image and is stuck with it whatever you do.
the ps3 has an incredibly hard fight to achieve what Sony fans want it to. i think Sony right now are just happy with profitability irrespective of place, but i know you guys spent years mocking Nintendo fan's desperate arguments based on profitability... so you can't really hold on to that one.
personally i think the PS3 will continue to do just fine. i think from a gamer's perspective it'll be like the Xbox last year, with a great library and solid exclusives. from a business perspective i think it'll be a GameCube. a machine that keeps Sony profitable in their console endeavours while they figure out how to recapture what they lost.
sales have an effect though. there are less games listed coming out for the PS3 than the 360 or Wii. ignoring quality obviously. there are more games listed as out for the Wii or 360 than PS3. that isn't going to change while sales are as they are... and that isn't going to encourage sales to improve.
we can argue what system has the best library... but not which has the smallest. and while that remains that is a second reason other than price for the PS3 lagging behind.
but like i said, i think it's going to be another Xbox from a gamer perspective. a healthy library with some good exclusives. i don't think PS3 owners are looking at a drought on the cards any time remotely soon if ever.
the wii continues to upset hardcore gamers. 360 fans continue to hold onto software sales. ps3 fans continue to hold onto brand loyalty.
really guys? you still believe there's some nebulous group of gamers loyal enough to wait three years for the right price drop yet who refuse to pay the current price or buy the competitions consoles which get ever closer to the right price.
$200 was always a magic number, maybe it's $250 now, but the PS3 is at least two price drops away from a number like that. the 360 pro has dropped $100 in three years. the PS3 $200 in two. there's no question who's hurting the most on hardware here and who is hurting the least (nintendo hurting the least obviously).
the ps3 is overpriced. no two ways about it. it has been since launch. it doesn't represent enough value to enough people for it to compete with it's peers.
the thing is that you don't get forever to get to that fair price. traditionally price drops only cause short term spikes. eventually your console gets an image and is stuck with it whatever you do.
the ps3 has an incredibly hard fight to achieve what Sony fans want it to. i think Sony right now are just happy with profitability irrespective of place, but i know you guys spent years mocking Nintendo fan's desperate arguments based on profitability... so you can't really hold on to that one.
personally i think the PS3 will continue to do just fine. i think from a gamer's perspective it'll be like the Xbox last year, with a great library and solid exclusives. from a business perspective i think it'll be a GameCube. a machine that keeps Sony profitable in their console endeavours while they figure out how to recapture what they lost.
sales have an effect though. there are less games listed coming out for the PS3 than the 360 or Wii. ignoring quality obviously. there are more games listed as out for the Wii or 360 than PS3. that isn't going to change while sales are as they are... and that isn't going to encourage sales to improve.
we can argue what system has the best library... but not which has the smallest. and while that remains that is a second reason other than price for the PS3 lagging behind.
but like i said, i think it's going to be another Xbox from a gamer perspective. a healthy library with some good exclusives. i don't think PS3 owners are looking at a drought on the cards any time remotely soon if ever.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Jtyettis said:
donny's worldwide chart uses Japan, US, and Canada actual numbers + an estimation of the rest of the world using KNOWN LTDs and country shares. I'm sure he'd be more than happy to share the magic juice used to make the Euro composite, but again I'm not sure what the issue is.
You have a graph of US + Japan using real numbers. You have a graph of worldwide shipments on a quarterly basis. You have a graph of worldwide sales that uses a composite estimate for the Euro/AU/etc component. Where's the beef?
I like how after criticizing donny for insufficiently disclosing the information he used to make his assessment, you just state point blank that "we already know MS continues it's [sic] lead" and don't actually bother to explain how we know this.
We know that with launches aligned, Nintendo has a substantially smaller portion of third-party sales as a percentage of total tales, but a substantially larger amount of third party sales on an overall basis. This is a no-brainer.
We know the total Wii monthly sales have tied or exceeded the 360 monthly sales for every month this year that either software numbers or cash numbers have been provided. As far as I am aware, the only questions up for debate are:
- On a lifetime basis, do the current Wii third-party sales exceed current 360 third-party sales?
- On a monthly basis, do the current Wii overall sales exceed the 360 overall sales by a substantial enough basis that the Wii third-party sales exceed the 360 third-party sales?
I wouldn't be able to hazard a guess for either question, honestly.
SnakeswithLasers
Member
USD said:
Ya, because fucking Wrath of the Lich King came out yesterday. Fuck all this noise and nonsense. Long live the king.
I hadn't played WoW in a year, started a couple weeks ago before the world events and now I'm fully enslaved again; console gaming is dead to me once more.
I think everyone knew Gears 2 would sell well. What "Gears 1.5" has to do with how many copies of Gears 2 sell - I thought that was targetted at the game not being revolutionary, but simply an evolution. If it sells 1.5x as much as Gears 1, maybe that'll make it "Gears 1.5"?just tray said:
Anyway, PS3 might well still outsell 360 this year. Worldwide. And I always thought that the "this is the year of the PS3" was always about the games that were coming out for it - ie. that PS3 gamers would be having a hell of a lot of fun - I believe they've had their fair share of incredible games - MGS4, LBP etc. It's not their fault that Sony don't know how to advertise.
MechDX said:
According to this, yes.
Indeed. If that book is correct, MS's primary goal in getting into the console market was not to make money, but to stop a Sony hegemony of the living room from threatening their windows monopoly. I wonder if they're worried about Nintendo doing the same now?
Actually their advertising has been pretty good in the UK. Still I've never seen more adverts for PS3 game than a Wii game, or DS game. Every Channel 4 break I see either a Mario Kart ad, or Brain Training ad. Every ad break, and probably ITV too. Must cost a bomb, but they work.just tray said:
Its Sony's fault. It has more to offer than teh average 2Dplatformer.They should have really advertised the create your own level feature.LBP is Sony's Viva Pinata but only not as pretty.dark10x said:Err, it IS a 2D platformer (basically).What should people be viewing it as?
Xisiqomelir
Member
Scum said:
GOTG
Stumpokapow said:
Exactly my point that his personal estimate. Nothing more. Doesn't mean it is anywhere near to actuals for those remaining countries WW. As for third party, we know that is not the case because we have Microsoft's to date third party share this gen of 57%. So you can cut Nintendo's and Sony's with 43% share. Kind of hard to have a bigger share than a clear majority. We also know for this year that in July MS had sold 16.5 million units of 3rd party software year to date. We also know that Nintendo had sold 13.4 million units of third party software through July. Now through September we know Nintendo had sold 18.8 million. JVM stated a lower bound conservative estimate of third party sales for MS through September was 20.5 million. The only months he did not have for MS were August and September and we know MS did 2.7 million in third party sales for those two months in the top ten alone. So 4 million or rather 650k (each month outside of the top ten) for the 360 outside of top ten for the other two months seems as he says pretty conservative. 5 million is much more likely. The only other question is October. We have MS's third party sales and thus Nintendo would have to do $177 million plus make up for the ~2 million or so gap that already existed year to date. The only difference is first party this year as I stated as MS hasn't really had any real hitters until quite recently. I guess you could call that a "trouncing", but certainly no where close to reality or universally.
Rocksteady33
Junior Member
sillymonkey321 said:
Wasn't VP
S marketing left up to THQ? Microsoft can push a product... THQ not so much.*shrug*just tray said:
The fact that it was a 2D platformer is precisely what attracted me to it.
I mean, some of the most popular games of all time are 2D platformers. Still, I know what you mean.I have to disagree with the "not as pretty" as Viva Pinata, though, but that's just opinion.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Count Dookkake said:
I am going to have to agree with the post you are quoting. It's all about how much fun your machine packs inside, the the machinery inside of it.
MS was very smart to switch to revenue statements a while back when they couldn't boast about unit sales, as that makes comparisons much harder to make (the average new 360 title providing 20% more revenue than the average new Wii title). As it is, your estimates about third party sales aren't any more valid than you consider donny's hardware estimates, but we already had this discussion in another thread.Jtyettis said:
For what it's worth, that third party revenue share is shrinking. 59% in May, 58% in August, and now 57%.
Private Hoffman
Banned
just tray said:
When did Viva Pinata sell 200k in 5 days?
botticus said:
That is true, but that 4 million wasn't my estimate. So any way you cut it that doesn't matter as there would still be a healthy unit lead. Although since we have no third party data from Nintendo this month as of yet there is no comparison.
donny2112 said:
Oh I don't believe it is terribly off, but like others mentioned it looks off. I mean you could probably throw your estimates plus ioi's for the same time frame and it would probably look pretty close to reality. If MS hits 25 million in two weeks shipped I would definitely say there will be some adjustments in order by the end of the month. Going from 3 million shipped versus sold to four may present some issues. Granted that would depend on a November estimate.
test_account
XP-39C²
I havnt really followed this thread, but based on some comments that i saw i have to ask, is 190.000 consoles sold in 1 month really that bad? After reading some comments i understand it like this is a laughable and a horrible number. What are normal sales number?
Jtyettis said:
If someone took all the available data for non U.S./Japan countries, came up with a reasonable estimate for current totals based on trends and known data from actual tracking firms for countries we've gotten data on, and tried to reasonably guess on the remaining bit, I fully expect that they would come up with a number not significantly different than what I'm using. I'm not 100% correct, but I also shouldn't be as far off-base as your posts are suggesting.
jamesinclair
Banned
Personally, I dont have time to buy it now, Ill be buying over winter break.Eteric Rice said:
I doubt Im alone
jamesinclair
Banned
test_account said:
Lets put it like this.
November is usually 2x October sales.
November is also when most consoles hit 800,000 sold
PS3 will not be selling that amount
X360 will be hitting that benchmark
Wii will be.....
(December is usually slightly higher, and where we expect 1m sales
dammitmattt
Banned
test_account said:
Yes. It's bad for October. Especially in comparison to the other two consoles.
Private Hoffman
Banned
test_account said:
It isn't that bad when compared to last month's numbers. It's basically fairly consistent with what you could expect, but the 360 and Wii did so well that, in comparison, it made the PS3 look bad.
Historically, October has only seen about a 25% increase in terms of weekly sales for consoles that don't have a price drop or a huge software release.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ah ok, thanks for the answer!jamesinclair said:
What are "most conosles" by the way? Like Xbox and Gamecube for example?Ah ok, thanks for the answer!Sadist said:
Ye, there might be some gloating as well.
Xisiqomelir
Member
Dragona Akehi said:
Dragona, buy Valkyria!
Also, FWIW, this is my now-gen home console library (+Valkyria)
perfectchaos007
Member
John Harker said:
See guys, 2012 is the year of the PS3. Just sit back and wait, no need to rush.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ye, compared to the Xbox 360 and the Wii, the PS3 sales doesnt look that good. Ah ok, how many percentage was the PS3 increased compared to September? I know that September was a 5 week month while October was a 4 week month when it comes to the NPD tracking. Thanks for the answer!Private Hoffman said:
Is the PS3 the first "mainstream" console that have been $399 in it's second year by the way?