The ref's call on the field was the Texans had the ball. In order to reverse the call, there had to be indisputable evidence of each of the following:
1. Moats fumbled the ball before going out of bounds. I agree the replay indisputably shows this. But that's not the end of the story. The call on the field was that the Texans had possession. In order to establish that the Colts should gain possession, more is needed. To wit,
2. The Colt tackler was not touching the loose ball while any part of himself was out of bounds. If any part of him was out of bounds when he touched the loose ball, the play is immediately over and the Texans keep the ball because the Colts did not gain possession of it prior to being out of bounds. This is where Pereira runs completely off the rails. He said there was no conclusive evidence that the tackler was out of bounds when he touched the ball, but that's not the question. Because the call was "Texan football", there had to be indisputable evidence that the tackler WAS NOT out of bounds when he touched the ball. There is no way the replays could be said to establish, indisputably, that the tackler was completely in bounds when he touched the loose football.
3. That the Colt who subsequently recovered the ball was established in bounds. I think the replay shows that he was (though it may be a closer call than #1), but this shouldn't matter in light of #2.
If the refs did the replay correctly, this should have been their official explanation:
"After further review, the ball-carrier did fumble before going out-of-bounds. However, the loose football was touched by the tackling player, and there is no indisputable evidence that the player was in bounds at the time he touched the ball. Therefore, the ball is spotted at the point where the tackling defender touched the ball, and the offense retains possession."