AFC Playoff Picture
If they started today...
1. Rors (12-0)
2. Smokey (10-2)
3. Ramirez (8-4)
4. AFC East Winner
5. Welie (8-4)
6. Colts (7-4)
AFC Wildcard Spectacular
- Smokey (10-2) games left: CIN, CAR, IND, TEN
- Ramirez (8-4) games left: CLE, SF, STL, CLE
- Wellie (8-4) games left: HOU, STL, ARI, BAL
- Colts (7-4) games left: NE, BAL, TEN, HOU, JAX
- Crow (6-5) games left: MIN, CHI, NE, BUF, KC
- Nightz (6-5) games left: JAX, BUF, BAL, DET, OAK
Since Rors says the Wildcard logic is broken, but the division logic is right, let's look at the only interesting division race where the division winner will at least be above .500 - the AFC North.
Ramirez and Wellie are both 8-4 now, with a 1-1 split head to head. Wellie's loss to Levious plays spoiler here and puts Ramirez up in the division tiebreaker by a half game (3-1, 3-2). Wellie has one more division game (Baltimore, week 17), Ramirez has two (Cleveland 2x). In the event those two tie, the tiebreaker goes to conference records, where they are both currently 7-3.
Striker wants a high pick to solve McCoy's problems, ergo I can't imagine him wanting to win one or both of his games against Ramirez - going to four wins moves him from the 1 or the 2 pick all the way down to the 5 or 6. Big drop-off.
So that puts Ramirez up to 10-4, a loss to FMT is 10-5 and then he finishes at 11-5 if he beats Storybook.
If Wellie loses to Houston, he goes to 8-5 and beats Balb, Storybook and Levious (he said he's never beat him because they've only played once). Both finish 11-5, Ramirez finishes a game ahead of him in the division tiebreaker and wins the AFC North.
If Wellie beats Houston, he stays at 4 losses (finishing 12-4) and Ramirez is down a game with a loss to FMT. If he finishes at 11-5 he'll be competing for a spot with Crow (who will finish 11-5, easiest remaining schedule of Wildcard teams) and possibly myself.
But the wildcard logic probably goes haywire and people get screwed!
AFC East Division "Race"
- Sanjo (5-6) games left: IND, WAS, DEN, MIA, BUF
- Mik (5-6) games left: TEN, SD, MIA, DEN, NE
- Drizz (5-7) games left: PHI, BUF, NE, MIA
- Ferney (5-6) games left: WAS, KC, PHI, NYG, MIA
The short version. The winner of the division will be no better than 8-8. Everyone in this division has two "guaranteed" losses on their schedule. So it's going to come down to the head to head and division records. Which could end up putting the Drizz in at 8-8.