Yup, stumbles withstanding, that's already a lock. Winner of the Pac 10 Title game will go to NC game. Loser to the Rose Bowl.
SEC has the next best shot. Specifically, Alabama could still sneak back into the NC game.
Big 10 is a bit of a long shot, but if things break (Oklahoma State and Bama both lose) then it is a possibility!
Edit: I don't think TCU and Texas have played yet? Phee could put a huge wrench into Smokey's national title hopes!
Actually when the National Title team comes from an automatic qualifier, the spot becomes an At-Large bid.
So PAC-12 runner-up isn't guaranteed a trip to Pasadena
Conference championship match-ups will be big.
Big Ten Leaders representative in the game will come down to winner of Penn State/Wisconsin
Legends division will come down to Michigan v. Iowa