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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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Looks like they´ll be lucky to get 100.
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Good.
Selon les projections réalisées à partir de ces premières estimations : LRM obtiendrait entre 415 et 455 sièges sur 577 ; LR, entre 70 et 110 ; le PS, qui contrôlait la moitié de lAssemblée nationale sortante, entre 20 et 30 sièges ; LFI entre 8 et 18 sièges ; Le FN, qui ne comptait que deux députés, obtiendrait entre 1 et 5 sièges.
Wah wah wah.
Wah wah wah.
Palette Swap
Member
Guaino saying voters in his district make him sick because he lost, classy sore winner.
We won't miss you.
We won't miss you.
Ghostandgoblin
Member
I may have mixed things up a bit, nobody is saying that. You are saying the assembly is not legitimate. For me it is, since the voters chose who they wanted.
This is where we disagree, people who didn't vote were conscious of their choice, they had the option of clearly stating "there is not a good choice to make" by voting blank.
Now for the bad representativeness, I don't see what you are pointing out.
It was an exaggerated example to show my point, I didn't wanted to be realistic. So yeah, an example.
And since people chose to not go vote, you can argue all you want about the legitimacy from a moral, philosophical or I don't know what point of view, it is representative.
It is the freedom of anyone to not vote, but then you have to be considering this action as it is supposed to be considered : Let the others decide.
I'm sorry but check the definition of moral : I am not saying this is bad not to vote, I'm not speaking of duty. I'm saying that your vision of an assembly that is not legitimate after 50% of people didn't go vote is wrong, because the voting system from a technical point of view evolves and allows you to vote for no one.
As I understand your concerns, the assembly is not representative of France because 50% of the voters weren't there to vote and you're saying that it's not the people not voting who are to blame but the system. I'm not seeing that the same way, sure the system is not perfect but yes, you can't say it is not legitimate if people don't vote to speak out, this is here that the topic is becoming a moral one. Don't answer me if you like, but I'm clearly not seeing how a technical view of the matter is a moral stance.
The French electoral system is so uniquely biased towards centrists because of the two round run-off system that I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been a major centrist insurgency in France before (I know Bayrou came close). Especially in two person run-offs, the rallying effect of the losing wing in any given constituency throwing their lot in with the centrist because at least he's not the other guy is powerful. Combine this with a Presidential mandate, PS in shambles, LR in search of an identity, and low voter turnout reducing the likelihood of three and four-person runoffs and you see a landslide like this.
Pretty fun to look back at some pundits who said that even if Macron won the Presidency, he would never win a majority.
It's admittedly something of a personality cult at this point but I can't help but take a moment to appreciate what Macron represents in the wake of all that's happened in the past year. It feels good to have some hope for the world again with such an unapologetically pro-European president in France.
Pretty fun to look back at some pundits who said that even if Macron won the Presidency, he would never win a majority.
It's admittedly something of a personality cult at this point but I can't help but take a moment to appreciate what Macron represents in the wake of all that's happened in the past year. It feels good to have some hope for the world again with such an unapologetically pro-European president in France.
Aaaahh, that feeling when you go on the Figaro website for a quick laugh and the first article you see is this :
The FN getting crushed, sens populaire taking a beating and the right of Les républicains crumbling? I´m starting to enjoy French politics a little too much...
edit : This is too good, here is the link for you guys to enjoy
le Figaro said:
The FN getting crushed, sens populaire taking a beating and the right of Les républicains crumbling? I´m starting to enjoy French politics a little too much...
edit : This is too good, here is the link for you guys to enjoy
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
My French is kind of rusty, but is Le Fígaro making a clear distinction between right wing politicians and centrists? That feels so refreshingly honest for a conservative paper coming from a country where the hard right tries to pass as centrist just to save face.
Ghostandgoblin
Member
Finally those toxic voices are slowly fading (for the moment). Poisson drawning and the burn out of Guaino are the best news from those legislatives.
Yep, they are saying the hard right ones are not doing well, the UDI and the moderates are standing out.
Palette Swap
Member
They do, but the party itself does through euphemisms like "humanist" for centrist currents or "strong" for hard right currents, so they're all pretty open about it.
To be fair, they never really got out of the 2012 leadership crisis and everyone in the party has tried to have their own current or movement that would eventually become everyone's banner. This meant being pretty open about their differences, even if they all agreed about a basic, and growingly vague, framework.
Also, they're in a semi-permanent alliance with a centrist party (UDI), which is itself a collection of "independent" center-right movements. They're all so independent that when faced with a sinking LR ship while a centrist was successful, they stuck with LR because of earlier deals.
Ghostandgoblin
Member
Interesting article :
http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-leg...-beaucoup-plus-feminisee_5144012_5076653.html
It seems that we are approaching parity (not there yet) thanks to EM, Modem and FI who did not only mandate women in difficult districts like they usually do.
http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-leg...-beaucoup-plus-feminisee_5144012_5076653.html
It seems that we are approaching parity (not there yet) thanks to EM, Modem and FI who did not only mandate women in difficult districts like they usually do.
UnluckyKate
Member
a voté
we are looking at only 30% turnout
we are looking at only 30% turnout
I wish I could say the same, but I expect my proxy vote will not be handled in time (it also happened on first turn of the presidentials, I was able to vote myself on the two others)
When a friend of mine who is mayor said that a proxy took two weeks to arrive, I'm not that surprised there's issues. But maybe I'll be lucky this time... (that's just for the turnout, the En Marche candidate had a 8 points lead over the FN one in first turn, 27/19, and I can't see FN earning 31 points between turns)
Sad for Bayrou that may have lost because of the very same argument...
Yes, if a centrist reach the second turn, it has a huge chance of winning, but the trick is... the current system usually don't allow a centrist candidate to reach second turn if there's a decent left and decent right.
Macron was lucky that everything went well in the first turn, including Fillion issues, and it was still a close call.
It's interesting to note that the candidate that would have been elected in a Condorcet system usually isn't one of the two in the second turn (Jospin and Bayrou for example would have been elected in a Condorcet system)...
Gurgelhals
Member
First projections are here:
Less seats for Macron than polls predicted, but still a very comfortable majority.
Socialists not imploding completely is good I guess.
8 Seats for the FN sucks. Was hoping for below 5.
Less seats for Macron than polls predicted, but still a very comfortable majority.
Socialists not imploding completely is good I guess.
8 Seats for the FN sucks. Was hoping for below 5.
UnluckyKate
Member
311 seats, they have the majority without Modem (577 seats total)
It's far less from the projection from last week after the first turn.
But still amazing for a party created 2 months ago
I'm in front of Fr2 and they have different projections. Theirs put LFI and PS tied...
yeah, 8 seats for FN sucks
Cambadelis quits his job as head of PS lol
It's far less from the projection from last week after the first turn.
But still amazing for a party created 2 months ago
First projections are here:
Less seats for Macron than polls predicted, but still a very comfortable majority.
Socialists not imploding completely is good I guess.
8 Seats for the FN sucks. Was hoping for below 5.
I'm in front of Fr2 and they have different projections. Theirs put LFI and PS tied...
yeah, 8 seats for FN sucks
Cambadelis quits his job as head of PS lol
Palette Swap
Member
Cambadelis complaining about representation, lol. Man, if only the previous legislature had done something about that.
Resign and go fuck yourself, shitsaurus.
Resign and go fuck yourself, shitsaurus.
UnluckyKate
Member
word. so good.
Palette Swap
Member
Haha, he looks utterly defeated.
This is probably the end for him.
This is probably the end for him.
Well tout est bien qui finit bien looks like.
Macron will have his majority, we'll be able to see what he does with it. The PS and LR will survive, but with enough of a kick in the butt that they might have to try to get their houses in order. It looks like they both lost a lot of their more "radical" candidates, and what's interesting is that there seem to be a more balanced number of deputies between PS/divers gauche and LR/UDI, which will probably push them further to the center.
FN gets a handful of deputies, bleh I guess but they had to have something to show for the number of votes they got in the presidential election. France Insoumise/ PC is having a good night, I personnally despise Mélenchon with a passion but I guess it's also good that they get some representation.
All in all a reasonable looking assembly, Macron will be able to get to work but won't feel like he can do whatever he wants (hopefully the far left won't interpret this as a free hand to obstruct anything and everything in the streets).
Macron will have his majority, we'll be able to see what he does with it. The PS and LR will survive, but with enough of a kick in the butt that they might have to try to get their houses in order. It looks like they both lost a lot of their more "radical" candidates, and what's interesting is that there seem to be a more balanced number of deputies between PS/divers gauche and LR/UDI, which will probably push them further to the center.
FN gets a handful of deputies, bleh I guess but they had to have something to show for the number of votes they got in the presidential election. France Insoumise/ PC is having a good night, I personnally despise Mélenchon with a passion but I guess it's also good that they get some representation.
All in all a reasonable looking assembly, Macron will be able to get to work but won't feel like he can do whatever he wants (hopefully the far left won't interpret this as a free hand to obstruct anything and everything in the streets).
I'm not sure they'll have a reliable majority, though. Some part of the elected EM will probably voice their disagreements, especially if there's a margin...
As for MoDem, I can see them getting the boot, but that may be a mistake. But if the MoDem is out, they'll have a big problem to solve... A majority of the proposals will probably be in line with what they want, so even if a backstabbing happen, I can't see them (and wouldn't want them) going full opposition. Especially not when you remember WHY the MoDem was created. They probably have little to gain and a lot to lose in the next 5 years.
I'm super biased so I'm glad they are only getting 8 mps and I wish they had gotten even less but I think she's absolutely right about the lack of representation. There are millions of FN supporters who won't be represented. A party as big as the FN should have way more elected mps.
Well, I would love to see no FN in the Assembly, but I agree. There's a real issue there.
I'm not insane enough to think that Mitterand had many reasons to change the rules (and Chirac as much to change them back), but I believe the rules introduced by Mitterand were better. Even if that meant a lot of FN people in Assembly.
Because, there's hypocrisy involved. Either they're not following the rules and they should be banned from elections, full stop. Or they're allowed to enter them, and people voting for them should at least see some presence in the Assembly.
The current system is awfully bad for getting people involved in the elections, and unsatisfying from a philosophical point of view.
I hope Bayrou will prevail on this, and Macron keep his promises on this point.
+1
Except for Bayrou. Most useless politician in History. I wish Macron had gotten rid of him
I agree it's not very representative but I think the process with 2 rounds is fair. Much fairer than a straight up 1 round FPTP system like in the UK anyway which results in extreme political tribalism and ultra safe seats that won't be lost even if the party leader fucks a pig (or an entire country). There is much more diversity in the French parliament and if a party inspires visceral hatred against them among the majority of the population maybe 5 seats is all they deserve.
UnluckyKate
Member
First turn at home :
Second turn with a twist :
Stay communist Le Havre ¯\_(ツ_/¯
Second turn with a twist :
Stay communist Le Havre ¯\_(ツ
_/¯
They'd need it to form a parliamentary group because they won't be 15, so who knows?
They are divided on the issue themselves, but I can alreay see a handful of communists joining the FI group.
Well, I'm not that fond of the man, but I agree with a lot of his positions (including supporting Macron without having much respect for him), and I respect him for the choices he made sometimes, knowing it wouldn't be popular... I would be fine with him being the compass if someone like Borloo was at Matignon to handle the affairs.
I think you'll get your wish, in any case, I fully expect Macron to accept support when he need it and throw it away as soon as it's not welcome anymore.
harriet the spy
Member
I'm in slow internet right now so I can't check but I'm curious if
A) Villani (fields medalist and dandy) got elected
B) how did minority candidates do (I know that LREM had a historic number of minority candidates but not sure how well they did)
A) Villani (fields medalist and dandy) got elected
B) how did minority candidates do (I know that LREM had a historic number of minority candidates but not sure how well they did)
harriet the spy
Member
Both borloo and Bayrou have a reputation for being personable but basically lazy slackers. At least for all his problems Macron has 'gnaque' so it's probably good that if someone got elected, it's him. I hope he gets rid of Bayrou asap. He doesn't need him.
No results in Essonne yet.
Regarding his score on the first round, I think he is pretty safe.
That's my circonscription
He got 47,46% in the first round, he should be ok.
The whole circonscription is nothing but universities and grandes Ecoles, if anything it's surprising he wasn't elected in the first round.
harriet the spy
Member
There is something a bit bonkers about him going to politics and he'll probably be a pretty bad MP - but I can't help but feel it's pretty cool
With 47.5% first turn and a 30% lead, I can't see him loosing, but I don't think results are available yet.
For Bayrou, no doubt, I'm not even sure it's just a reputation, but Borloo, I'm not convinced he even have this reputation, and should he have it, he sure doesn't deserve it. He's basically the opposite, a busy guy, hard at work, and also honest. How many people would have resigned their mandate because, due to health problem, they thought they couldn't invest themselves as much as they should in their work?
Palette Swap
Member
I've liked the guy for quite some time (before politics obviously) and he's always sounded sensible, so that makes me pretty happy.There is something a bit bonkers about him going to politics and he'll probably be a pretty bad MP - but I can't help but feel it's pretty cool
(Edit: FWIW, on slackers, I know a few LR people from Baroin's area, he's apparently the worst of them)
I'd say there's a LOT of things a bit bonkers about him in the past years, politics is just the last one, and one that was to be expected considering the recent years.There is something a bit bonkers about him going to politics and he'll probably be a pretty bad MP - but I can't help but feel it's pretty cool
harriet the spy
Member
Fair enough - I might have watched too much guignols at some point (stopped long time ago thankfully )
Sure enough, they were harsh with him... ^_^
Apparently, according to Gassiot, they created the character that was leaning on an alcoholic hobo just because his speech is not perfect, his voice a bit broken, and his suit not always neat... The result was somehow far from the original, it seems.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Ah, shit, Brochand won in Cannes. We'll never get rid of him and Estrosi.
There is something a bit bonkers about him going to politics and he'll probably be a pretty bad MP - but I can't help but feel it's pretty cool
A bad MP in what ways?
There are hundreds of MPs (well, maybe usually are) that are specialized in law and politics. It can't hurt to have some that are specialized in math instead.
Palette Swap
Member
Laure Darcos. Of course she's Xavier's wife. SMH. Can't these people stop doing politics like it's a family trade?
Edit: so Evry is l'école des fans, everybody won? (Except voters)
Edit: so Evry is l'école des fans, everybody won? (Except voters)
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