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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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A

azyless

Member
ShadowKingpin said:
Social, yes. Someone who is socially progressive, but Pro-EU.
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That leaves Macron (among the 4 realistic candidates).
Though Mélenchon isn't as anti-EU as Le Pen, and not for the same reasons, imo. I don't have faith in his plan to reform the EU which is a big part of why I'm not voting for him, but I don't believe he particularly wants to leave it.
 
K

Koren

Member
LordKano said:
I thought about him too, but would people really want a not-Lepen at the head ? And, I think if FN loses tonight, the fault will be rejected at Philipot. Ironically, he's the one who "un-demonized" LePen.
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Well, Marine has support because people think she has the best chance.

Remove her, and you don't have that many popular/well-known figures.

Some people will want to go more right (or at least more openly) and support Marion-Marechal, some will want to avoid the dynastic thing, some will want to work on being seen as a "normal" party. I can't see who they can rally behind.
 
G

Gurgelhals

Member
LordKano said:
Take with HUGE care, but these are RTBF numbers that they says "communicated by the Ministère de l'Intérieur".
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Major LOL if Fillon actually ends in fourth place (a shame about Le Pen, of course, but against Macron she's out in round two, so no worries at least).
 
S

Simplet

Member
Koren said:
I really, really don't thing 2nd turn polls before the 1st turn are remotely trustable.
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Interestingly, the economist has an article this week that shows that the average of the last polls about the second round published before the first round were within 3 points of the final result in at least the last three elections. That's pretty impressive.
 
K

Koren

Member
azyless said:
That leaves Macron (among the 4 realistic candidates).
Though Mélenchon isn't as anti-EU as Le Pen, and not for the same reasons, imo. I don't have faith in his plan to reform the EU which is a big part of why I'm not voting for him, but I don't believe he particularly wants to leave it.
Click to expand...
He probably doesn't, but I can't see him getting the changes he talked about from EU, especially in a short time, and if he's saying "well, too bad, let's go on with the current state", it'll be see as trahison from many of his supporters.
 
M

Magni

Member
orioto said:
Lepen second would be sad (now that there is a chance she's not..) but Fillon 4th would be glo-rious
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Same here.

Fillon 2nd would reassure me with regards to Europe, but Mélenchon 2nd would be amazing for the giant FUs to both Fillon and Le Pen it'd represent.
 
K

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
I'm kinda hoping Hamon overperforms (even though I voted for Macron). Not a huge fan of polls shaping our voting decisions, even as I myself voted according to poll results.
 
C

Condom

Member
Moppeh said:
If that's your criteria, then it ain't Melenchon.
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Melenchon can't say to be pro the current EU and not lie because the EU literally has made social democratic policies illegal. So anyone who is socially progressive should be at least critical of the current EU.

If you think 'what is he talking about?' look at the consequences of the single market regulation (forced privatizations) and the power of lobbyists in Brussel. It's not populist talk but reality that anyone who actually works in or around the EP can tell you in person.

European unity is important but let's not be blinded and just project on the EU what we want to see instead of see the reality of the situation.
 
K

Koren

Member
Simplet said:
Interestingly, the economist has an article this week that shows that the average of the last polls about the second round published before the first round were within 3 points of the final result in at least the last three elections. That's pretty impressive.
Click to expand...
Fair enough, but in the last three, we had twice left vs right, and one right vs LePen. A lot of moves were expected, and usually the center go 50/50.

Now, we can have right against far right, right against far left, unaligned-both-neither vs anything... throw in affairs and the fact that many subjects are not clear-cut...

Also, in older ones, a small detail between the two turns has changed a LOT of thing.
 
T

Tamanator

Member
Fillon's campaign died when the corruption scandal hit. Whilst Melenchon has been a somewhat unexpected dark horse, it'll be a real surprise if it's not Macron vs Le Pen.

I feel like Melenchon is similar to Syriza. He'll take an anti-EU stance to garner votes, but in the end, won't be able to change the status quo within the EU and end all talk of reforming the EU/leaving the Eurozone.
 
M

Moppeh

Banned
Condom said:
Melenchon can't say to be pro the current EU and not lie because the EU literally has made social democratic policies illegal. So anyone who is socially progressive should be at least critical of the current EU.

If you think 'what is he talking about?' look at the consequences of the single market regulation (forced privatizations) and the power of lobbyists in Brussel. It's not populist talk but reality that anyone who actually works in or around the EP can tell you in person.

European unity is important but let's not be blinded and just project on the EU what we want to see instead of see the reality of the situation.
Click to expand...

I agree with you. The EU should not be immune to critique or improvement. I was just answering his question, since Melenchon is a euroskeptic at best.
 
M

Magni

Member
Whats the best place to see detailed results when they come in? I'm really curious as to what the vote was like in Japan today.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
There's not much to see live anyway.
They'll announce the first estimations for a few seconds, then make empty comments on those while waiting for the candidate reactions. No fireworks nor can-can dancers. :p
 
D

Dascu

Member
Condom said:
Melenchon can't say to be pro the current EU and not lie because the EU literally has made social democratic policies illegal. So anyone who is socially progressive should be at least critical of the current EU.

If you think 'what is he talking about?' look at the consequences of the single market regulation (forced privatizations) and the power of lobbyists in Brussel. It's not populist talk but reality that anyone who actually works in or around the EP can tell you in person.

European unity is important but let's not be blinded and just project on the EU what we want to see instead of see the reality of the situation.
Click to expand...

I work in Brussels as a lobbyist and think this is bullshit, but OK.
 
F

Fisico

Member
Koren said:
I really, really don't thing 2nd turn polls before the 1st turn are remotely trustable.

But out of curiosity, which predictions seems wrong?
Click to expand...

It's in a post above yours

It's just not even close at all, Macron vs Fillon is the second round with the biggest margin around ~35% and Melenchon beats both Le Pen and Fillon by a 15% margin also

On the RTBF results : That would be overperforming a lot for Macron-Melenchon 87% for the top 4, I don't buy it.
 
C

Condom

Member
Dascu said:
I work in Brussels as a lobbyist and think this is bullshit, but OK.
Click to expand...

Well there is the flaw in my sentence because I said 'everyone' what would also include the offenders themselves. Believe me that the politicians see it differently, I've personally heard it from multiple that I talked to (in small public and private events). It's also logical, it's a center of big power.
 
O

oti

Banned
...
...
Guys.
Are we gonna be OK?
cat-tense-o.gif
 
M

Mimosa97

Member
I'm ready to lose 10% or more of my net worth tomorrow with the temporary crash of the Euro.

Hope it recovers once Macron is elected.
 
D

Dascu

Member
Mimosa97 said:
How does it feel like to be responsible for the massive rise of anti-EU sentiment in Europe ?

God bless neoliberalism and those austerity policies amirite ? :/s
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'Lobbyists' include such a wide group of people, from industry association representatives to local towns and communities, universities and libraries, NGOs and individual citizens. This stupid idea of people in suits walking in with bags of cash and sipping whisky with politicians is so asinine and frustrating. It's like thinking all lawyers are crooks and liars. It's short-sighted, ignorant and disrespectful. Our 'power' is also vastly overrated.
 
M

Mimosa97

Member
Dascu said:
'Lobbyists' include such a wide group of people, from industry association representatives to local towns and communities, universities and libraries, NGOs and individual citizens. This stupid idea of people in suits walking in with bags of cash and sipping whisky with politicians is so asinine and frustrating. It's like thinking all lawyers are crooks and liars. It's short-sighted, ignorant and disrespectful. Our 'power' is also vastly overrated.
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Cheers mate.

I just guessed that if you weren't a lobbyist for big corporate you would have said so yourself.

I hope you get to save the Sumatran Orangutan from extinction.
 
T

Tamanator

Member
I predict Le Pen will make it to the second round, but it would be absolutely fascinating to see what happens if she doesn't in regards to where the Le Pen and Fillon votes go in the second round.
 
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