Place your bets: Age of Ultron vs The Force Awakens

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Hero_of_the_Day said:
One thing cannot be proof of a trend. What if Civil War does better than Winter Soldier? Will that be proof that super-hero movies are back in?
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Civil war can't be compared to the Winter Soldier since it'll have Iron man, Black panther and Spiderman in it.

I think Thor 3 compared to Thor 2 will be the real test.

This is also the case with BvS, how can you compare it with man of steel, when the movie will have over 60% of its runtime filled with arguably the most popular hero on the planet now, Batman, unlike the previous entry.

Disney can keep making money by making their movies bigger and bigger, but what happens when they are already too big like the Avengers. AoU shows that you can't just retread the same ground and hope for greater success.

That's why I said that spiderman could be a huge deal.
 
Serve me that plate of crow already. I was expecting a lot more out of AoU. I enjoyed more than the first after my initial watch but after recently watching it again last week, I realized the movie is just okay.


I'm still iffy on Star Wars. All because JJ is directing. He's not amazing. However, the movie will be top 2 of the year, probably #1.
 
Come on man, Phase 2 performed extremely well overall. How many people really had AoU pegged for ~$460 million domestic and getting outperformed by Furious 7 worldwide? Credit to the one or two people who predicted that.
 
I just watched my Ultron 3D bluray a few hours ago and I enjoyed it. Didn't bother watching it at the theater. On topic, Avengers is not fresh and new anymore and sequels don't always do better than the original installments. Then you have the crapload of superhero movies released in recent years. There is only one Star Wars. A new story, original cast cameos, NO Lucas and the full power of Disney behind it. There was a lot going in Star Wars favor in this comparison.
 
Ghostmaster said:
Civil war can't be compared to the Winter Soldier since it'll have Iron man, Black panther and Spiderman in it.

I think Thor 3 compared to Thor 2 will be the real test.
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Age of Ultron had Iron Man in it, and you view that as a failure. 95% of people won't have a clue who Black Panther is. If rumors are to be believed, Spiderman is barely in the movie, and obviously not enough people showed up to see his last movie, so he's not a guaranteed draw at this point. Regardless, you can make any excuse you want, but Civil War being massively successful will go against the theory of superhero fatigue, that's all there is to it.

Thor 3 has a disadvantage coming off of what seems to be widely considered Marvels worst MCU entry. So, it doing worse than Thor 2 won't really be shocking. If it turns out good, it'll do just fine, though.

At the moment, though, you're still literally saying

IM3>IM2>IM1
then
T2>T1
then
CA2>CA1
then
A2<A1

OMG! Superhero fatigue! And that's ignoring the fact that they successfully launched Ant-Man, which has done better than Captain America and Thor's debuts. And the massively successful Guardians of the Galaxy.

Ghostmaster said:
This is also the case with BvS, how can you compare it with man of steel, when the movie will have over 60% of its runtime filled with arguably the most popular hero on the planet now, Batman, unlike the previous entry.
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So, what you're saying is that 2 out of the 3 next big super hero movies are pretty much guaranteed to make more than their predecessors, but those don't count because of reasons. Therefore, the fatigue is real. What will your reasoning be if Thor 3 actually turns out good and does as well or better than Thor 2?
 
Hero_of_the_Day said:
Age of Ultron had Iron Man in it, and you view that as a failure. 95% of people won't have a clue who Black Panther is. .
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What does this even mean? Yes AoU had Iron Man in it but so did the original avengers, Winter soldier did not.

Unless you're implying that Civil War will make more money than the avengers and I highly doubt that unless Spiderman has a much bigger role than implied.

Hero_of_the_Day said:
So, what you're saying is that 2 out of the 3 next big super hero movies are pretty much guaranteed to make more than their predecessors, but those don't count because of reasons. Therefore, the fatigue is real. What will your reasoning be if Thor 3 actually turns out good and does as well or better than Thor 2?
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Of course they will make more money since they will be bigger and have more famous heroes in them.

I said that hero fatigue hurt AoU, because just being a superhero movie isn't enough anymore, you need to keep adding more and more heroes.

You can't make movies like Iron man 3 and Thor 2 anymore and expect them to outprofit the previous entry, that's why Disney has pretty much given up on just a hero per movie, when it comes to sequels.

Even Thor 3 is rumored to have Hulk in it.

Guardians is a bit of an outlier since it's the best movie Marvel put out and also since it can easily be seen as a Star Wars type movie and not really a super hero movie.
 
Ghostmaster said:
What does this even mean? Yes AoU had Iron Man in it but so did the original avengers, Winter soldier did not.

Unless you're implying that Civil War will make more money than the avengers and I highly doubt that unless Spiderman has a much bigger role than implied.



Of course they will make more money since they will be bigger and have more famous heroes in them.

I said that hero fatigue hurt AoU, because just being a superhero movie isn't enough anymore, you need to keep adding more and more heroes.

You can't make movies like Iron man 3 and Thor 2 anymore and expect them to outprofit the previous entry, that's why Disney has pretty much given up on just a hero per movie, when it comes to sequels.

Even Thor 3 is rumored to have Hulk in it.

Guardians is a bit of an outlier since it's the best movie Marvel put out and also since it can easily be seen as a Star Wars type movie and not really a super hero movie.
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So, the answer to superhero fatigue is to put more superheroes in everything?

Age of Ultron had three brand new heroes in it. The magic ticket isn't to keep adding heroes, it's to stop putting out mediocre movies. Winter Solider was massively better than The First Avenger, so it did better. Iron Man 3 was better than Iron Man 2, so it did better. Also, note that IM3 also cut all of the side characters out and just made it a story about Tony. Shit, Iron Man was barely even in the movie. Thor One was bad enough I didn't see Two, so I have no opinion on how that movie did so well other than Avengers seemingly drew more fans.

At the end of the day, if there were fatigue then you wouldn't have excuses for why future movies are going to continue being popular, you would have data showing ticket sales dropping. Everything Marvel has done has been more popular than the last, EXCEPT Ultron. Clinging to that one fact as proof of fatigue is absolutely nothing but confirmation bias.
 
Hero_of_the_Day said:
So, the answer to superhero fatigue is to put more superheroes in everything?

Age of Ultron had three brand new heroes in it. The magic ticket isn't to keep adding heroes, it's to stop putting out mediocre movies. Winter Solider was massively better than The First Avenger, so it did better. Iron Man 3 was better than Iron Man 2, so it did better. Also, note that IM3 also cut all of the side characters out and just made it a story about Tony. Shit, Iron Man was barely even in the movie. Thor One was bad enough I didn't see Two, so I have no opinion on how that movie did so well other than Avengers seemingly drew more fans.

At the end of the day, if there were fatigue then you wouldn't have excuses for why future movies are going to continue being popular, you would have data showing ticket sales dropping. Everything Marvel has done has been more popular than the last, EXCEPT Ultron. Clinging to that one fact as proof of fatigue is absolutely nothing but confirmation bias.
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Dude IM2 was forgettable, but IM3 was shit.
 
Hero_of_the_Day said:
So, the answer to superhero fatigue is to put more superheroes in everything?

Age of Ultron had three brand new heroes in it. The magic ticket isn't to keep adding heroes, it's to stop putting out mediocre movies. Winter Solider was massively better than The First Avenger, so it did better. Iron Man 3 was better than Iron Man 2, so it did better. Also, note that IM3 also cut all of the side characters out and just made it a story about Tony. Shit, Iron Man was barely even in the movie. Thor One was bad enough I didn't see Two, so I have no opinion on how that movie did so well other than Avengers seemingly drew more fans.

At the end of the day, if there were fatigue then you wouldn't have excuses for why future movies are going to continue being popular, you would have data showing ticket sales dropping. Everything Marvel has done has been more popular than the last, EXCEPT Ultron. Clinging to that one fact as proof of fatigue is absolutely nothing but confirmation bias.
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IM 3 is a very peculiar movie, it rode the Avengers hype into the box office, it would have been very interesting to see how it would have performed if it came after IM 2. Since most people consider both to be vastly inferior to the original.

Also I don't see how adding more popular heroes is an excuse. Disney is well aware that the fan reception to both IM 3 and Thor 2 despite the box office wasn't that great. Hell even though Winter Soldier performed better critically and commercially than the original they still decided to throw in three more heroes into the sequel. Although at this point I wonder if that's more because of the prospects of Iron Man 4 than Captain America himself.
 
Finaika said:
Isn't Black Panther pretty big?
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I'm going to bet not to the movie going audiences, even the majority of those who go see Avenger movies. Have to remember, the people making these movies huge aren't comic book readers. If they were, comics wouldn't be selling like shit.

Your Entertainer said:
Dude IM2 was forgettable, but IM3 was shit.
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I thought they both sucked pretty equally, I was just meaning general popular opinion. Some seem to have come around on IM3 not being that great, but at the time people were going fucking crazy for it.
 
Nobody beats James Cameron, except James Cameron.

US dollar is too strong too, Yen is not what is used to be either.
 
Finaika said:
Isn't Black Panther pretty big?
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I dunno how big he is within the marvel lore universe. But he's not at all a hero that the average person on the street have ever heard of.

Ghostmaster said:
I did say slowly and I think AOU is ample proof of that.
It's not even just about the money, the hype of AoU evaporated very quickly after the release unlike the first Avengers.

I don't think that they can release a movie of Thor 2 quality anymore and expect it to rake in huge profits. The fact that they pushed Thor 3 so far back means that even they are aware of this.

Although Spidey is a huge get for them. He has a chance to freshen up the whole avenger's affair if he is good.
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AOU is proof that people get tired of seeing the same heroes over and over again, especially if the movie that they're in is worse than the previous one. So yes, in that sense there is fatigue. But that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

Introduce new heroes, new locals and themes. While at the same time actually having villains not be shit. Do that, and superhero movies will keep flourishing.
 
Ghostmaster said:
IM 3 is a very peculiar movie, it rode the Avengers hype into the box office, it would have been very interesting to see how it would have performed if it came after IM 2. Since most people consider both to be vastly inferior to the original.

Also I don't see how adding more popular heroes is an excuse. Disney is well aware that the fan reception to both IM 3 and Thor 2 despite the box office wasn't that great. Hell even though Winter Soldier performed better critically and commercially than the original they still decided to throw in three more heroes into the sequel. Although at this point I wonder if that's more because of the prospects of Iron Man 4 than Captain America himself.
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Son of a fucking bitch. I had a reply for you and accidentally deleted it.

I'll give the short(er) version:

There is no fatigue. When there is, there won't be anything the studios can do to stop it. Marvel having plans for their future success isn't a magic trick that is helping them hide the fatigue. It's the magic trick that is keeping the fatigue from existing.

Trickster said:
While at the same time actually having villains not be shit.
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I fucking hope they figure this out now that they have Spider-Man. It's infuriating how little they continue to do with their villains. Especially now that we've had Daredevil that had a great, fleshed out, interesting villain.
 
Star Wars will dominate. A New Hope 2: Lucas On The Sidelines.

It's a bubble that's been building and now we will get a real Star Wars movie for the first time in over twenty years.
 
I don't think AoU stands a chance here. Star Wars will make more and be the better film by a country mile. AoU was a huge step back from the first one in my opinion so I'm pretty biased in that regard.

Obviously I'd watch Star Wars first, even if I didn't know that I wouldn't enjoy AoU as much as the first movie. I mean come on... It's fucking Star Wars!
I'm sure nothing else will come close to what these films have made and will make this year.
 
bananafactory said:
It's Star Wars.

I don't know why people thought a Marvel movie would beat it.
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Because the first Avengers movie is the fourth highest grossing film of all time, and none of the Star Wars films are in the first 3 slots. In fact-none of the first 19 slots! http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

That said-I believe this movie is going to blow the prequels out of the water in every way imaginable, and I am confident it will easily outgross AoU.

Poimandres said:
This thread is very funny in retrospect. I can see why people might have though AOU would take it, but by now it is blatanly obvious that Star Wars is going to demolish it with ease.

Also, almost no one saw Jurassic World coming, but here we are.

When the dust settles, I think Star Wars will be second only to Avatar (by a bit of a margin mind you). I don't even know what it would take to topple Avatar!
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Great point.
 
CassSept said:
Apparently it's not relevant any more and it has never been as big ww as in the US, which I had always seen as a weird claim, especially when put against Marvel of all things.
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All three prequels did better overseas than domestically. That certainly won't change now that the foreign market is massively bigger.
 
I reckon 2bill for TFA and 1bill in merchandising from it.

It's crazy to think Lucasfilm selling for 4bill is actually the biggest bargain in history
 
liquidtmd said:
I reckon 2bill for TFA and 1bill in merchandising from it.

It's crazy to think Lucasfilm selling for 4bill is actually the biggest bargain in history
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That doesn't even include the other Lucas IPs like Indiana Jones or stuff like ILM.

Disney made out like a bandit.
 
Dalek said:
Because the first Avengers movie is the fourth highest grossing film of all time, and none of the Star Wars films are in the first 3 slots. In fact-none of the first 19 slots! http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

That said-I believe this movie is going to blow the prequels out of the water in every way imaginable, and I am confident it will easily outgross AoU.



Great point.
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Fair point but the box office environment is very different now than it was in 2005, especially when you factor in 3D premiums. With the exception of Return of the King and Jurassic Park, and the two Cameron films, all of those top 19 released after Revenge of the Sith
 
bananafactory said:
Fair point but the box office environment is very different now than it was in 2005, especially when you factor in 3D premiums. With the exception of Return of the King and Jurassic Park, and the two Cameron films, all of those top 19 released after Revenge of the Sith
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For sure-if Transformers can get there, Star Wars will easily.
 
TFA is easily taking it, Jurassic World and possibly Avatar. The latter will be hard since it was the go to movie to see in 3D + IMAX, but we'll see.
 
Star Wars won't top Avatar. Avatar brought in newbies and casuals, like my mother. She won't be seeing Star Wars because of residual dislike. Brand name will scare away a few, unlike Avatar.

It will be the second highest grossing movie ever though.
 
SCULLIBUNDO said:
That's not why it will be hard. Word of mouth is.
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Isn't that basically one in the same? Word of mouth spread that it was the go to movie to see in 3D/IMAX? or are you saying that Star Wars won't spread via word of mouth like Avatar?

Freewheelin' said:
Star Wars won't top Avatar. Avatar brought in newbies and casuals, like my mother. She won't be seeing Star Wars because of residual dislike. Brand name will scare away a few, unlike Avatar.

It will be the second highest grossing movie ever though.
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that's a really good point, but i think star wars is gonna attract an audience that may not have seen avatar and tons that are gonna want to see it because it's essentially going to be a cultural event.
 
The exchange rate for the US Dollar is not favorable for Star Wars even if it sold comparable tickets to Avatar.

I think it has an outside shot at Avatar's domestic take and Titanic's worldwide total, though.
 
Star wars easily, especially after reactions I've seen from the new trailer.

Also Age of Ultron was meh (worse than Ant-Man).
 
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