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PoliGAF 2011: Of Weiners, Boehners, Santorum, and Teabags

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besada said:
Sorry, but if you're weighting votes, regardless of your intent or schema, you're disenfranchising people. Disenfranchisement includes reducing the value of votes for a class, and that's exactly what you're suggesting. You can attempt to obfuscate by saying you're increasing the value of some votes, but that automatically decreases the value of others.

Not only that, but it's more likely to increase sharp class division. People who only get half a vote are less likely to bother, making the problem worse, not better. Rather than do our duty, which is to educate citizens, you've decided that some aren't worth the effort, and we shouldn't let them gum up the works for the rest of us. You were right earlier, it does sound very much like something SomeDude would suggest. Give that some thought, rather than trying to convince me that it's not what it is.

Agreed. Not to mention that, at least in the modern era, the more people that vote, the more economically left the result. While I wouldn't be so brash as to call this Hauser's law, it's good evidence that people aren't as dumb as it might seem. It's one thing to say that the voting electorate is stupid, and it probably is, but that's because the voting electorate is currently only about half the population. And it happens to be the wealthier half. Their votes are just betting on an America that is divided economically roughly in half between those who own any wealth at all and those who don't, and they are trying to protect that rather than have it eat them up. Their votes are probably very short-sighted and ultimately self-defeating, but they aren't completely irrational (from a strictly anti-social perspective of doing what's best for yourself). When voting turnout is higher, more people from the economic bottom half have come out, and elections tend to have more economically left results.

eSsJp.gif
 

Jackson50

Member
ThisWreckage said:
I think he's right in the sense that a third party has more of a chance than ever, but the two party system will win it out again. To be fair, Ron Paul has been predicting a lot of this stuff for years now.
Still, their prospects are negligible. The public has previously been dissatisfied with both parties, yet we have a stable two-party system. A remarkably stable two-party system. Barring substantial institutional and structural reform, it will not change. Sorry, Thom Friedman.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Shame we have so many American and British climate scientists that can't keep politics out of their science. At least there are others around the world that aren't afraid to publish the truth. I am hopeful that climate scientists from India and China will continue their work and offer fresh perspectives on the topic.



We present a sea-ice record from northern Greenland covering the past 10,000 years. Multiyear
sea ice reached a minimum between ~8500 and 6000 years ago, when the limit of year-round
sea ice at the coast of Greenland was located ~1000 kilometers to the north of its present position.

The subsequent increase in multiyear sea ice culminated during the past 2500 years and is linked
to an increase in ice export from the western Arctic and higher variability of ice-drift routes.
When the ice was at its minimum in northern Greenland, it greatly increased at Ellesmere Island
to the west. The lack of uniformity in past sea-ice changes, which is probably related to
large-scale atmospheric anomalies such as the Arctic Oscillation, is not well reproduced in
models. This needs to be further explored, as it is likely to have an impact on predictions
of future sea-ice distribution

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14408930
 
Aaron Strife said:
Bullshit.

Even in the most pessimistic scenario, there's no way we can do worse than 2010.

Losing the senate is a possibility, and losing the WH seems a given. While dems won't lose a billion seats like in 2010, losing all control over government will be an even bigger loss than the midterms.

There is literally nothing that can be done to improve the economy between now and next October, due to the House. Seems like we'll get another case of things picking up during the holidays/early year then drying up in the summer, high gas prices, poor jobs reports, etc.
 

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
PhoenixDark said:
Losing the senate is a possibility, and losing the WH seems a given. While dems won't lose a billion seats like in 2010, losing all control over government will be an even bigger loss than the midterms.

There is literally nothing that can be done to improve the economy between now and next October, due to the House. Seems like we'll get another case of things picking up during the holidays/early year then drying up in the summer, high gas prices, poor jobs reports, etc.
That's quite a bit of prognostication, even for you.
 
PhoenixDark said:
Losing the senate is a possibility, and losing the WH seems a given. While dems won't lose a billion seats like in 2010, losing all control over government will be an even bigger loss than the midterms.

There is literally nothing that can be done to improve the economy between now and next October, due to the House. Seems like we'll get another case of things picking up during the holidays/early year then drying up in the summer, high gas prices, poor jobs reports, etc.
You're being way to calm about this.
 

Zzoram

Member
Gonaria said:
I honestly can't see any of the republican candidates actually winning though. They are all either insane, dull, or both.

I think Obama is going to hurt badly due to the economy and will probably lose to whichever Republican wins their nomination.
 

Averon

Member
Obama is in trouble, but I wouldn't count him out yet. Despite everything that has happened, he's still polling in the mid 40s, believe it or not.
 

Zzoram

Member
I wonder what a Republican President, House, and Senate would do in 2013 now that the Tea Party controls 1/4 of their elected positions.
 
GOP has union and medicare killing bills to live down come election time. And the debt ceiling debacle if Dems can spin that to their advantage.
 

Hylian7

Member
So Rick Perry is having his little "prayer" event tomorrow. What do you guys think of this? Does he seriously have a chance for the GOP nomination?
 

Zzoram

Member
Hylian7 said:
So Rick Perry is having his little "prayer" event tomorrow. What do you guys think of this? Does he seriously have a chance for the GOP nomination?

If the economy recovers after tomorrow, he can claim it was his prayer event that did it. Maybe he'll even convince voters.
 
HyperionX said:
I'm pretty sure he's either a Republican concern troll or a masochist.

I'm moving into indifferent territory. Obama wasted nearly all the goodwill he had after the 08 election, and later wasted a super majority in the senate. He seems incapable of effectively negotiating, governing, or doing much of anything except kill terrorists in Pakistan, Yemen, and Afganistan.

The democratic party needs to be destroyed and rebuilt. Unfortunately if Obama loses, we'll just get a rerun of the "moderate democrat" nonsense that plagued the Bush years; I can just imagine someone like Mark Warner in 2015/2016 explaining that the party moved too far left, and needs to become more "business friendly" or whatever.

If the party wants to cater to corporations and continue this weak behavior at the first sign of trouble, why should anyone support them?
 

Zzoram

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I'm moving into indifferent territory. Obama wasted nearly all the goodwill he had after the 08 election, and later wasted a super majority in the senate. He seems incapable of effectively negotiating, governing, or doing much of anything except kill terrorists in Pakistan, Yemen, and Afganistan.

The democratic party needs to be destroyed and rebuilt. Unfortunately if Obama loses, we'll just get a rerun of the "moderate democrat" nonsense that plagued the Bush years; I can just imagine someone like Mark Warner in 2015/2016 explaining that the party moved too far left, and needs to become more "business friendly" or whatever.

If the party wants to cater to corporations and continue this weak behavior at the first sign of trouble, why should anyone support them?

Because the Republicans are even further right and only moving further right with time. If you have centrist views, or even left leaning views, Democrats are the better of the two options.
 

Averon

Member
Zzoram said:
I wonder what a Republican President, House, and Senate would do in 2013 now that the Tea Party controls 1/4 of their elected positions.

Imagine 2000-2006 magnified by a factor of ten. The damage a tea-party led government will do cannot be understated. If they were willing to let the US default, imagine what they would do with complete government control.
 

eznark

Banned
Invisible_Insane said:
They're bad. Most of the ones that have been put in place by Republican state legislatures seem as if they've been written to target Democratic-leaning constituencies. The "voter fraud" they're responding to is virtually, if not entirely non-existent. I think we should be reforming election law in the other direction--for example, there's no good reason for election day to be on a Tuesday anymore, so we should either make it a holiday or move it to a weekend. I don't think it even needs to be one day.

Turnout for elections in the US is exceedingly low, and I think boosting those numbers would lead to a political system that responds to more than just money.

Looking at it from your view that only intelligent people should be allowed to vote, ID seems to fit the bill. If you are too dumb to figure out how to get your free ID card, then you are too dumb to vote. Look at that, we didn't even need to form a Blue Ribbon Committee to create an arbitrary quiz.

How would putting a trivia quiz before being allowed to vote boost turnout? Are you kidding?
 
From S&P Release:

Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act.

Basically, the ONE solution to so many of America's problem is...let the Bush tax cuts fucking expire.
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
I heard an article on NPR where they said a tax loophole overhaul is to be proposed in September when Congress is back. Apparently it's "ready" to be brought up but they pushed it back because of the debt ceiling crazyness. They wanted to get it proposed before the summer vacation, so people and media can mull it over the vacation, then vote.

I guess with this S&P change, and internal and external pressure, maybe a tax overhaul of some sort has a better chance to go through.
 
AndyD said:
I heard an article on NPR where they said a tax loophole overhaul is to be proposed in September when Congress is back. Apparently it's "ready" to be brought up but they pushed it back because of the debt ceiling crazyness. They wanted to get it proposed before the summer vacation, so people and media can mull it over the vacation, then vote.

I guess with this S&P change, and internal and external pressure, maybe a tax overhaul of some sort has a better chance to go through.

Not with Republicans in charge. It is not going to happen.
 

Chichikov

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
From S&P Release:

Basically, the ONE solution to so many of America's problem is...let the Bush tax cuts fucking expire.
I think it's stupid to take policy advice from S&P given their recent track record (actually, it's stupid even ignoring it, but that's a different story).
And yes, that's true even when they're spouting things I agree with.
 

eznark

Banned
Chichikov said:
I think it's stupid to take policy advice from S&P given their recent track record (actually, it's stupid even ignoring it, but that's a different story).
And yes, that's true even when they're spouting things I agree with.

It'll be interesting to see Democrats glom on to that quote while completely glossing over S&P's calls to make serious changes to entitlement programs.

I also think it's incredibly interesting that S&P is now in the business of publishing policy papers. Obviously the downgrade is huge news, but I think S&P so publicly and forcefully inserting itself into the political horse race might have more important and long-lasting ramifications.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Congress probably likes it (S&P playing daddy). That's why the continually create these commissions and committees. They want to be told what to do so they don't have to take any blame or culpability for their actions.
 

Meadows

Banned
I feel so sorry for you Americans. Your electoral system is broken in that it only allows for two parties, and the only conceivable "third" party or ideology of any sort atm is the Tea Party, so you've got Centre-Right, Right, or Far-Right to choose from, and there's no way that the Dems or Reps would ever pass anything to change it because it's in their interests.

Two party politics don't work.
 

Chichikov

Member
eznark said:
It'll be interesting to see Democrats glom on to that quote while completely glossing over S&P's calls to make serious changes to entitlement programs.
They're once again surrendering the narrative in order to get (what they think is) a short term political gain.
They should unequivocally say that we're not going to take policy advice from the rating agencies, and the generally, given their recent track record, they should mostly shut the fuck up.
eznark said:
I also think it's incredibly interesting that S&P is now in the business of publishing policy papers. Obviously the downgrade is huge news, but I think S&P so publicly and forcefully inserting itself into the political horse race might have more important and long-lasting ramifications.
It has been doing it for the eurozone for a while.
Their nerve is shocking.
 

SoulPlaya

more money than God
Cubsfan23 said:
lol Obama is still favored to win the election by all vegas sites
Of course, he's the incumbent, and the only guy who has a chance against him imo is Perry because of his jobs record in Texas.
 

eznark

Banned
Chichikov said:
It has been doing it for the eurozone for a while.

Ya, but now they are doing it in a real country. The reaction should be interesting. Unlike Moody's cheerleading for the administration in 2009, this is clearly an unsolicited report.

Thank God Tax-Dodging Timmy said we can never be downgraded!
 
One of my old law professors has some interesting solutions to the current problems we are facing in government.

http://blog.nj.com/njv_guest_blog/2011/08/constitutional_amendments_need.html

A major cause of the budget impasse lies in the unwillingness of our political representatives to compromise. The root cause of this unwillingness, and of the polarizing ideology that justifies it, is political gerrymandering in the states.

Gerrymandering gives the extreme, “energized” poles of each party undue influence in elections — a problem exacerbated by the river of national political money flowing into local campaigns. It also diminishes the power of all voters by making politicians the decision-makers about which party will represent each specially drawn district.

The problem of political gerrymandering cannot be solved effectively through the state political process. Instead, the creation of nonpartisan redistricting commissions within the states should be mandated by federal constitutional law.

Of course, he got called a pinko communist in the comments section by the fringe right which populates the comments section of nj.com, for his suggestions.

Yet, the far right gets upset over the use of "hostage takers" in the debt ceiling debate.
 

Cyan

Banned
Sirpopopop said:
One of my old law professors has some interesting solutions to the current problems we are facing in government.

http://blog.nj.com/njv_guest_blog/2011/08/constitutional_amendments_need.html



Of course, he got called a pinko communist in the comments section by the fringe right which populates the comments section of nj.com, for his suggestions.

Yet, the far right gets upset over the use of "hostage takers" in the debt ceiling debate.
Well, we'll see if it works in California!
 
SoulPlaya said:
Of course, he's the incumbent, and the only guy who has a chance against him imo is Perry because of his jobs record in Texas.
Perry would lose to Obama in Texas. I'll gladly want him as the nominee.
 

Piecake

Member
Sirpopopop said:
One of my old law professors has some interesting solutions to the current problems we are facing in government.

http://blog.nj.com/njv_guest_blog/2011/08/constitutional_amendments_need.html



Of course, he got called a pinko communist in the comments section by the fringe right which populates the comments section of nj.com, for his suggestions.

Yet, the far right gets upset over the use of "hostage takers" in the debt ceiling debate.

why do we even need a committee doing that? The 'non-partisan' committee certainly be less partisan than elected officials, but they will still be partisan. I honestly don't see why we can't make up some mathematical formula and use that as our redistricting method.

As for our current system, it is just so totally fucked up. Who the hell thought it was a good idea to give redistricting power to the people who benefit it from it? Talk about a conflict of interest
 
PhoenixDark said:
Losing the senate is a possibility, and losing the WH seems a given. While dems won't lose a billion seats like in 2010, losing all control over government will be an even bigger loss than the midterms.

There is literally nothing that can be done to improve the economy between now and next October, due to the House. Seems like we'll get another case of things picking up during the holidays/early year then drying up in the summer, high gas prices, poor jobs reports, etc.
The only candidate Obama could lose to is Romney, who is by no means a lock for the GOP nomination.

I think Dems would win the House before losing the Senate, honestly.

PhoenixDark said:
‎Come on
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_629513.pdf

Perry is a fucking joke.

Obviously a poll this early doesn't mean much and an actual campaign would change things, but there's no reason why any competent GOPer should be down in Texas against an unpopular black Democrat, even if it's only by two. And Perry's been governor of Texas for 11 years.

His jobs record isn't that impressive once you take off all the McJobs.
 
No matter how you try to fix the Gerrymandering problem, you'll always hit resistance because the new system would most likely take seats from some party and give them to another, leading to instantly having a huge opposition to it.

I think the only way to fix it would be to say "Let's take this mathematical system, but it won't go into effect until 10 years from now." That way you won't know who will gain or lose seats until its too late.

Would that make sense?
 

Cygnus X-1

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I'm moving into indifferent territory. Obama wasted nearly all the goodwill he had after the 08 election, and later wasted a super majority in the senate. He seems incapable of effectively negotiating, governing, or doing much of anything except kill terrorists in Pakistan, Yemen, and Afganistan.

The democratic party needs to be destroyed and rebuilt. Unfortunately if Obama loses, we'll just get a rerun of the "moderate democrat" nonsense that plagued the Bush years; I can just imagine someone like Mark Warner in 2015/2016 explaining that the party moved too far left, and needs to become more "business friendly" or whatever.

If the party wants to cater to corporations and continue this weak behavior at the first sign of trouble, why should anyone support them?

How is possible that the party is very profiled, but has still not found a leader? Usually these two things go along very nicely.

Is there a person in the party right now who has the respect of both DEM and GOP?
 
ToxicAdam said:
Shame we have so many American and British climate scientists that can't keep politics out of their science. At least there are others around the world that aren't afraid to publish the truth. I am hopeful that climate scientists from India and China will continue their work and offer fresh perspectives on the topic.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14408930

Can you point to what in that you believe to be 'politics'? All I see is measurements, theories, projections, etc. It appears that you are the one who is injecting politics into that because you've subscribed to hard-right dogma.
 
Texas is a very conservative state. They don't like Perry but the idea that conservatives would stay home or be divided enough for Obama to win is ridiculous.
 
Dude Abides said:
The way things are going Obama could lose to a ham sandwich.
A ham sandwich would be a more formidable contender against Obama than Mitt Romney.

PhoenixDark said:
Texas is a very conservative state. They don't like Perry but the idea that conservatives would stay home or be divided enough for Obama to win is ridiculous.
True, the margins would be more favorable to Perry than Obama. That 2 point lead (47-45) could easily turn into, say, a 4 point loss for Obama (48-52). But if it's even that close in the first place, Perry would be getting romped on election day. A number of states in 2008 were a lot closer than Texas.

Cygnus X-1 said:
Is there a person in the party right now who has the respect of both DEM and GOP?
Gabrielle Giffords.

But it'll go away once she runs for office, just like how Republicans got triple amputee and decorated war hero Sen. Max Cleland (D-GA) on being weak on terror.

I feel it's worth noting that in spite of the downgrade/debt deal shenanigans, Obama's approval is actually up slightly on Gallup, 42/50. Still not good news, obviously, but he's no worse off today than he was yesterday.
 

harSon

Banned
Man, why do stereotypes always have to be true? We elect a black president and the country's credit score goes down the shitter...
 
PhoenixDark said:
Losing the senate is a possibility, and losing the WH seems a given. While dems won't lose a billion seats like in 2010, losing all control over government will be an even bigger loss than the midterms.

There is literally nothing that can be done to improve the economy between now and next October, due to the House. Seems like we'll get another case of things picking up during the holidays/early year then drying up in the summer, high gas prices, poor jobs reports, etc.
You really need to stop with these ridiculous pronouncements. A ton of unknown unpredicted things will happen between now & then. Sex scandals, unknown economic shifts, scientific advances, wars, etc. No one knows what things will be like then.
 

Measley

Junior Member
Obama isn't losing the 2012 election. Most people blame the economy on the GOP and Bush. Also the debt crisis didn't do the GOP any favors. The majority of people blame them for that as well.
 
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