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[kehs]

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/fox-poll-obama-by-4-nationally-but-48

Despite the distractions, this election is still going to come down to unemployment, consumer confidence, and whether voters feel they're better off. All three of which benefit Romney

We'll find out how much personality and running a good campaign truly matter. I think Obama can win, but my money remains on Romney simply due to the economic outlook. And whether he sucks or not doesn't really matter to voters who feel Obama doesn't need four more years

Romney has definitely contributed greatly to those three things.

 

[gcubed]

edit... why did google news give me a month old story?

 

[Kosmo]

Who exactly is disputing those facts? Everyone thinks F&F was a shit idea (started under Bush, ENDED under Obama) that went very badly wrong. The disputed facts are that it was Obama's idea and that it was an attempt to thwart Second Ammendment rights. Which is fucking DERP.

You've got this wrong. The Bush program was Wide Receiver - similar to Fast and Furious, however the guns were stopped at the border or being tracked by GPS/aircraft and the Mexican government notified of their location - over 1,400 arrests were made.

Fast and Furious began in October 2009, no tracking devices, and no attempt was made to stop them at the border and the Mexican government didn't even know it was going on.

 

[Kosmo]

Can you clarify this part, please?

Low-risk labor (show up, do work, collect pay, go home)

vs.

Entrepreneurship (show up, figure out what to sell, how to sell it, convince people to buy it, finance it, make sure you're making enough money to pay the people working for you, etc.)

 

[NullPointer]

What's wrong with that analysis? I think it's pretty clear Romney is a horrible candidate. But like Kerry, he has a chance to win given the situation. The economic sucks and isn't getting better, and voters see Obama isn't getting anything done with congress (which admittedly isn't his fault). Why is it far fetched to suggest that considering MOST Americans feel the country is on the wrong track, they'll select the other guy IF he can prove he's qualified and capable? If this was Santorum, the race would be over. If it were Gingrich, same deal. But Romney, while a horrible candidate, has an impressive (governor, business man) resume and can engage/debate the president without embarrassing himself.

I'd love to know how many of them think they'd be in a better position now if Romney had been president these past four years.

Isn't that the question that really matters?

 

[Kosmo]

I'd love to know how many of them think they'd be in a better position now if Romney had been president these past four years.

Isn't that the question that really matters?

Uh no.

The question that matters is "Given where we are now, do I have enough confidence in what Obama has done the last 4 years that we'll be better off 4 years from now?"

 

[Dude Abides]

Especially the end. I heard that and my heart sank. PriortiesUSA has that running in several swing states right now.

That ad right there, in heavy rotation, will be the final nail that does it.

Yes, the election is over in July due to what is essentially a remix of an earlier ad.

 

[NullPointer]

Uh no.

The question that matters is "Given where we are now, do I have enough confidence in what Obama has done the last 4 years that we'll be better off 4 years from now?"

When in the process of stemming the blood loss from a sucking chest wound I wouldn't expect the patient to be all that happy about matters.

And its one thing to lack any confidence in Obama as POTUS, but that sentiment alone won't provide a better next four years - its the conviction that candidate X could have done better and will do better.

 

[Guevara]

Interesting email two seconds ago from the Obama campaign:

Friend --

I will be the first president in modern history to be outspent in his re-election campaign, if things continue as they have so far.

I'm not just talking about the super PACs and anonymous outside groups -- I'm talking about the Romney campaign and the Republicans themselves. Those outside groups just add even more to the underlying problem.

The Romney campaign and the Republicans have recently raised more than us, and the math isn't hard to understand: Through the primaries, we raised almost three-quarters of our money from donors giving less than $1,000, while Mitt Romney's campaign raised more than three-quarters of its money from individuals giving $1,000 or more.

 

[Loudninja]

"His priority is not creating jobs for you," Romney declared. "His priority is keeping his own job. That's why he's going to lose it."

But Romney stopped short of a full attack. When an audience member referred to Obama as a "monster," Romney quickly interrupted and said, "That's not a term I would use."
Asked about his vice presidential search by an audience member who insisted he had to pick a "conservative" for the ticket, Romney said he had not yet settled on a running mate.
"Even thought I have not chosen the person who will be my vice president, they will be a conservative," Romney said

"It shows how out of touch he is with the character of America," Romney said, adding that his "demonizing" of success is "something so foreign to us we simply can't understand it.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...rees-supporter-calls-president-192915406.html

Interesting email two seconds ago from the Obama campaign:

Not really they said that several times already.

 

[Kosmo]

Interesting email two seconds ago from the Obama campaign:

Interesting. I wonder if he sent out a "Friend, I am going to be the first candidate since post-Watergate election finance reform to opt-out of public funding for my campaign so that I can raise 2-3x as much money as my opponent to get elected."

Why so butt-hurt, Barack? For fuck's sake, this is whining.

 

[Plinko]

uhoh:

Mitt Romney Never Thought He'd Have To Release Tax Returns: Bain Sources

This makes absolutely no sense.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Can someone tell me the idea behind those wish Barack a Happy Fathers Day with Michelle and some of those other weird side banner ads? They seem almost patronizing/paternal and are really odd.

 

[Ghost_Protocol]

Michelle Bachmann has to be the single largest piece of shit in the house of representatives, if not congress as a whole. She's like a disgusting combination of Wendy Wright and Ann Coulter all rolled into one. God.

 

[Tamanon]

Can someone tell me the idea behind those wish Barack a Happy Fathers Day with Michelle and some of those other weird side banner ads? They seem almost patronizing/paternal and are really odd.

I oddly enough have an ad with 2 google links for Mitt Romney donations and 1 for Bad Credit car loans in the same frame.

I assume it's a clever commentary on something.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Michelle Bachmann has to be the single largest piece of shit in the house of representatives, if not congress as a whole. She's like a disgusting combination of Wendy Wright and Ann Coulter all rolled into one. God.

What triggered that? lol

Funniest thing is who her office is across from in DC. I really wish I got a picture when I was in DC last time.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Anybody who is saying Romney will lose or Obama will lose right now, just stop. Wait till conventions and September to make polls the mainstay of your election predictions.

If nothing else than because of the fact that polls right now use RV and not LV models.

Polls are where they have been for 2 months. You can interpret as this being a bad sign for Obama (Romney campaign has made many errors) or as a bad sign for Romney (2 consecutive months of terrible job numbers) depending on how you want to take a look at it.

 

[XenodudeX]

It's definitely not smart to say who will win or lose at this point. Honestly the election can go either way.

Spoiler

Romney is going to fucking lose and you people know it

 

[Ghost_Protocol]

What triggered that? lol

Funniest thing is who her office is across from in DC. I really wish I got a picture when I was in DC last time.

She just accused Hilary Clinton's top aide of helping the Muslim Brotherhood infiltrate the United States

and John McCain called her stupid ass out on the senate floor.

 

[Oblivion]

Tom Tomorrow ftw:

 

[NullPointer]

and John McCain called her stupid ass out on the senate floor.

Good on him.

 

[Dude Abides]

Interesting. I wonder if he sent out a "Friend, I am going to be the first candidate since post-Watergate election finance reform to opt-out of public funding for my campaign so that I can raise 2-3x as much money as my opponent to get elected."

Why so butt-hurt, Barack? For fuck's sake, this is whining.

Uh, saying your opponent has more money than you is a standard fundraising appeal. Is this your first election?

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

She just accused Hilary Clinton's top aide of helping the Muslim Brotherhood infiltrate the United States

and John McCain called her stupid ass out on the senate floor.

He called her a stupid ass? Oh man I need to see that! Good for him!

Oh he's the link, but not the ad for the Wish Barak a Happy Fathers Day....it's just weird and something almost obnoxious about it. I'll see if I can find the pic of the ad or some of the odder banner ones.

http://www.barackobama.com/fathers-...OM_DATASET[slug=file_dataset,key=file_hash]%%

 

[Oblivion]

Michelle Bachmann has to be the single largest piece of shit in the house of representatives, if not congress as a whole. She's like a disgusting combination of Wendy Wright and Ann Coulter all rolled into one. God.

Odd...I'm surprised I don't know who this person is.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Bachmann isn't even half the woman her husband is.

 

[Wilsongt]

Bachmann isn't even half the woman her husband is.

A PopGAF gif would work perfectly here.

 

[Mario]

Odd...I'm surprised I don't know who this person is.

Assuming this is who he meant, prepare to be infuriated

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFjoEgYOgRo

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Another of the odd Obama side banner ads

There is something I just don't like about that ads, I can't quite phrase it but it rubs me the wrong way.

 

[Loudninja]

Scott Brown Condemns Bachmann Accusations Against Huma Abedin

Rep. Bachmann’s accusations about Sec. Clinton aide Huma Abedin are out-of-line. This kind of rhetoric has no place in our public discourse

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.c...emns-bachmann-accusations-against-huma-abedin

 

[DasRaven]

Another of the odd Obama side banner ads

They is something I just don't like about that ads, I can't quite phrase it but it rubs me the wrong way.

Freudian slip?

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Freudian slip?

More like autocorrect on the iPad.

There instead of they, it's autocorrect or my habit of not reading anything over. lol

 

[RustyNails]

Watch as Michele Bachmann gets re-elected in landslide. This cheap stunt pulled by her is nothing more than a ploy by her handlers to get her re-elected. They whip up this crap and feed her, and she swallows it whole hearted. But their main target is her frothing-at-the-mouth, xenophobic, islamophobic electorate. They will eat it up, and she will be perceived as a sole defender of Apple Pies and Dodge Durangos against Secret Muslin infiltrators in White House.

 

[Oblivion]

Assuming this is who he meant, prepare to be infuriated

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFjoEgYOgRo

Ohhhh, yeah I know that simian.

Appropriate comparison to Bachmann.

 

[Ghost_Protocol]

Assuming this is who he meant, prepare to be infuriated

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFjoEgYOgRo

What have you done? Unless you're in the mood for a serious headache people, do not listen to this woman talk for more than 5 minutes. She's fucking insane.

 

[NullPointer]

More like autocorrect on the iPad.

There instead of they, it's autocorrect or my habit of not reading anything over. lol

Was going to ask - your recent posts are filled with that kind of stuff.

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Was going to ask - your recent posts are filled with that kind of stuff.

Yeah, sorry about that, I need to check for those more when using an iPad or my phone. Android can be just as big a pain. I'm tempted to just turn it off, in fact I thought I had.

 

[The Technomancer]

What's wrong with that analysis? I think it's pretty clear Romney is a horrible candidate. But like Kerry, he has a chance to win given the situation. The economic sucks and isn't getting better, and voters see Obama isn't getting anything done with congress (which admittedly isn't his fault). Why is it far fetched to suggest that considering MOST Americans feel the country is on the wrong track, they'll select the other guy IF he can prove he's qualified and capable? If this was Santorum, the race would be over. If it were Gingrich, same deal. But Romney, while a horrible candidate, has an impressive (governor, business man) resume and can engage/debate the president without embarrassing himself.

Kerry lost against a president who perpetrated what much of the country percieved as a massive fuckup. Obama hasn't had anything nearly like the Iraq war.

 

[Paches]

Kerry lost against a president who perpetrated what much of the country percieved as a massive fuckup. Obama hasn't had anything nearly like the Iraq war.

I forget the numbers at the time of the election, I assume the majority didn't approve of the wars, but I am curious now as to what they were during election time.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Watch as Michele Bachmann gets re-elected in landslide. This cheap stunt pulled by her is nothing more than a ploy by her handlers to get her re-elected. They whip up this crap and feed her, and she swallows it whole hearted. But their main target is her frothing-at-the-mouth, xenophobic, islamophobic electorate. They will eat it up, and she will be perceived as a sole defender of Apple Pies and Dodge Durangos against Secret Muslin infiltrators in White House.

They do it for fundraising. It's a win/win - Bachmann gets millions in donations for a safe House race that she funnels to other GOP candidates, the DailyKos crowd gets outraged and donates money to her Democratic opponent that could go to winnable contests, not just in other states but in other MN GOP-held districts like Kline's, Paulsen's, and Cravaack's. They get off scot-free however because they know how to keep their traps shut in purple/blue districts.

Tarryl Clark was a great candidate, Jim Graves seems like a decent guy. I like this:

MPP: Rolling Stone Magazine was in the district and did a huge piece that called national attention to the cycle of bullying against gay teens in the Sixth District. The bullying was linked to teen suicides, and the school district was blamed for condoning homophobia. What should a congressional representative be doing about bullying and suicide issues in the Sixth District--not just the bullying and suicide issue for gay teens, but for all teens.

GRAVES: A congressional member should stand up for everybody that is in America, everybody that is in his or her district. Let me tell you my position on this thing.I grew up in the sixties. I saw friends that were gay that commited suicide. I've seen friends have their children commit suicide. And I think that is totally deplorable and I will not stand for that.

I respect everybody in America, and I respect everybody that I'm going to represent. And I'm going to stand up for everybody. And when anybody, any homophobic statements come out, anything discriminatory against anybody in my district--I'm going to stand on the rooftops and scream out loud that enough is enough. I believe in integrity, and I believe in the honor of every individual.

But he's going to lose by double digits.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Kerry lost against a president who perpetrated what much of the country percieved as a massive fuckup. Obama hasn't had anything nearly like the Iraq war.

Obama has unemployment above 8%. More people will be worried about that than Iraq war.

 

[The Technomancer]

Obama has unemployment above 8%. More people will be worried about that than Iraq war.

Its not a question of worry (I don't think) its a question of being pissed off. People may not like that unemployment is above 8% but how much do they view Obama as the single figure responsible for that?

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Kerry lost against a president who perpetrated what much of the country percieved as a massive fuckup. Obama hasn't had anything nearly like the Iraq war.

Kerry was also a Dem version of Romney, let's also not forget his dumb vote against the funding bill, but also being bland and lifeless as fuck.

 

[Oblivion]

lol, Romney flak says Mittens has "gone above and beyond" what's required for his taxes:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/romney-s...one-above-and-beyond-what-is-required-of-him/

 

[Dram]

Second judge rejects state voter ID law

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/second-judge-rejects-state-voter-id-law-ea65kqh-162799866.html

A second judge has declared Wisconsin's voter ID law unconstitutional, further guaranteeing that the ID requirement will not be in place for elections this fall.

Dane County Circuit Judge David Flanagan wrote Tuesday that the state's requirement that all voters show photo ID at the polls creates a "substantial impairment of the right to vote" guaranteed by the state constitution.

In March, Flanagan issued an injunction temporarily blocking the law because the plaintiffs - the Milwaukee branch of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and the immigrant rights group Voces de la Frontera - were likely to succeed in their arguments. Flanagan made that injunction permanent in the 20-page decision he issued Tuesday.

The immediate effect of his ruling is limited because another Dane County judge, Richard Niess, permanently blocked the voter ID law in March in a case brought by the League of Women Voters of Wisconsin. Having a second ruling against the law makes it all the more difficult for voter ID proponents to get the law reinstated because they would need to get both orders lifted.

 

[The Technomancer]

Kerry was also a Dem version of Romney, let's also not forget his dumb vote against the funding bill, but also being bland and lifeless as fuck.

Right, exactly. Obama's record hasn't been so great that I think he'd be safe from a competent challenger, but against Romney....

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Right, exactly. Obama's record hasn't been so great that I think he'd be safe from a competent challenger, but against Romney....

Romeny lacks the funding bill vote, Bain has issues, but not like that, plus Kerry's war record.

 

[kehs]

Oh god, Conan's spoof ad for Obama was awesome. Can't find a link right now though. (not he bain/bane one).

 

[Arrowgigantic]

Nate Silver's new numbers are up. Obama's predicted electoral votes went up 2.2 from yesterday to 298.1

 

[Aaron Strife]

Nate Silver's new numbers are up. Obama's predicted electoral votes went up 2.2 from yesterday to 298.1

It seems the likeliest EC outcome is Obama with 332 EVs (about 10% chance), meaning he loses NC and IN from 08 but holds onto FL, OH, VA, CO, NM, NV, IA and the Kerry states.

Of the four battleground states (NC/VA/OH/FL), Obama looks like the favorite in Ohio and Virginia, running even in Florida and just a few points behind in North Carolina. And he only needs to win one of them and he's in.

Of course this is all based on polling now, so I'm sure in three months when blue-collar Ohio voters remember that Obama didn't put his hand over his heart during the national anthem they'll go for Romney in spades.

 

[Dude Abides]

Kerry lost against a president who perpetrated what much of the country percieved as a massive fuckup. Obama hasn't had anything nearly like the Iraq war.

Public opinion had not completely turned against the Iraq debacle in 2004. The realization that it was an unmitigated disaster was fairly nascent at that point.