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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

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FyreWulff

Member
So Nebraska is the only Dem seat that's sunk in the Senate for sure? lol. Republicans will probably get Missouri as well but Montana and ND I think will stay blue in the Senate. Dems will pick up Maine(Indy) and Mass to counter those losses. No way the Repubs get the Senate.

Ben Nelson was more Republican than the Republicans that ran against him.
 

markatisu

Member
I thought Silver became irrelevant after 2010?

Or is it only when he tells us what we want to hear?

What?!

He is probably the most accurate political forecaster around, he rarely messes up and the times he does (by the slightest of margins) he is honest and shows why the error occurred and how he adjusts to compensate for it in the future.

I get that you think Obama is going to lose but there are other metrics to use, Nate's projections being false, irrelevant or inaccurate is not one of them.
 

Dram

Member
Mitt Romney: Arab Spring Could've Been Avoided By Bush's 'Freedom Agenda'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/27/mitt-romney-arab-spring_n_1710038.html

In an interview with the right-wing Israeli daily newspaper Israel Hayom, Mitt Romney said that the Arab Spring might never have happened had Bush's "freedom agenda" not been prematurely halted by President Barack Obama.

"President [George W.] Bush urged [deposed Egyptian President] Hosni Mubarak to move toward a more democratic posture, but President Obama abandoned the freedom agenda and we are seeing today a whirlwind of tumult in the Middle East in part because these nations did not embrace the reforms that could have changed the course of their history, in a more peaceful manner," Romney said.

Romney argued that with the rise of democratically elected Islamist governments in some of the countries undergoing revolutions -- Egypt and Tunisia in particular -- the Arab Spring has turned out to be less of a boon for Western interests than it initially appeared.

"Clearly we're disappointed in seeing Tunisia and Morocco elect Islamist governments. We're very concerned in seeing the new leader in Egypt as an Islamist leader. It is our hope to move these nations toward a more modern view of the world and to not present a threat to their neighbors and to the other nations of the world," he said.
 

codhand

Member
Why wouldn't people listen to Silver? In aggregate, he's been the most accurate forecaster over a the last decade.

Why do you think people are not listening to Silver now, Diablos? Honest question.

I don't listen to him as much, since he went on NYT, he's been writing way more words per story, and I don't like his writing. The site itself (538) doesn't present the information as clearly as it did prior to the move, and he said fucking Rick Perry was a lock. Basically I skim through his articles saying "yeah, yeah, where's the percentages?"
 

Guileless

Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
Wait...when did Obama kill thousands? Even with his continuation of the occupation, there haven't been that many deaths. They should put Dubya on there with horns and pitchfork then. PEACE.

Estimates of drone strike deaths vary, but on the high end they are in the low thousands. You could also attribute deaths in Libya during the NATO action to Pres. obama's foreign policy if you were so inclined. That's not even counting deaths in Afghanistan from conventional military actions. I am sure we will begin to see reports about Iranian civilians starving or being denied medical care due to sanctions.
 

codhand

Member
Estimates of drone strike deaths vary, but on the high end they are in the low thousands. You could also attribute deaths in Libya during the NATO action to Pres. obama's foreign policy if you were so inclined. That's not even counting deaths in Afghanistan from conventional military actions. I am sure we will begin to see reports about Iranian civilians starving or being denied medical care due to sanctions.

Either way, dumb billboard.
 

Guileless

Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
I agree the billboard is dumb because I don't think Pres. Obama's foreign policy had killed thousands before he was awarded the Nobel.
 
Romney could promise to personally buy everybody in the District a convertible and he'd still lose DC. There's no reason for anybody to spend any money in that market. We probably won't see very many ads here in Cali either.

DC isn't a singular market, though; it covers Maryland and Virginia, too. Maryland is another lock for Obama, but Virginia is hotly contested. However, I don't know anything about what ads they are running. Wow, I really don't watch much tv anymore.
 
early voting battle ground states dates :

A75Dy.jpg


Ohio will be really interesting
 
On the eve of Mitt Romney's trip to Israel, a new Gallup poll finds 68% of Jewish Americans support President Obama for re-eelction, while 25% support Mitt Romney.

One, it is gallup.

Two, that is actually less than 2008 and 2004 for the Dem candidate.
 
Because Diablos always believes against all common sense that Obama is doomed and will lose in a bigger landslide than Dukakis.

The only difference between him and PD is that PD actively roots for Obama to fail.

Obama fails quite well on his own, I don't have to root for it. He'll go down in history as an inconsequential one term president after republicans destroy the health care law and Romney rides a recovery into re-election
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
I think it is (or at least, eventually will be) an unpardonable foreign policy blunder to describe the Arab Spring as anything but a good thing, as hard as transitions have been -- even if that puts forces in power the US don't necessarily prefer.
 
I think it is (or at least, eventually will be) an unpardonable foreign policy blunder to describe the Arab Spring as anything but a good thing, as hard as transitions have been -- even if that puts forces in power the US don't necessarily prefer.

But the Muslim Brotherhood!

Republicans have made sure almost half the country thinks the Arab spring is bringing Al Qaeda back to power
 
Obama fails quite well on his own, I don't have to root for it. He'll go down in history as an inconsequential one term president after republicans destroy the health care law and Romney rides a recovery into re-election
There you go again.

Rasmussen's wisconsin senate poll caught me completely off-guard: they have Tammy Baldwin leading Tommy Thompson by 7 (48-41). Eric Hovde actually comes closest at 45-42.

Their polls are bunk but I'll take one showing Baldwin up even if it's from rasmussen.
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Obama fails quite well on his own, I don't have to root for it. He'll go down in history as an inconsequential one term president after republicans destroy the health care law and Romney rides a recovery into re-election

How can you type health care, Obama and inconsequential in one sentence? Even if he were a one term president, and I suspect that as usual you're wrong, he'd still be the only black president, the most ambitious and successful in terms of health care and gay rights in history and the guy who got Osama Bin Laden. I know you hate him, but at least acknowledge he's important and consequential historically.

Then you can be wrong again later.
 
How can you type health care, Obama and inconsequential in one sentence? Even if he were a one term president, and I suspect that as usual you're wrong, he'd still be the only black president, the most ambitious and successful in terms of health care and gay rights in history and the guy who got Osama Bin Laden. I know you hate him, but at least acknowledge he's important and consequential historically.

Then you can be wrong again later.

Because a Romney presidency would likely guarantee the law is gutted?
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Because a Romney presidency would likely guarantee the law is gutted?

That still doesn't make Obama inconsequential.

I think that would say more about Romney's presidency than Obama's.

Congratulations, your biggest achievement was undoing universal healthcare.

After first making it succeed in Mass, based on states rights, but using states rights to undo it everywhere else.
 
that most of the country doesn't support

If you followed the polls, you will notice that a lot of them don't want to repeal the law but make changes to it. That they all like the individual segments of the law, just don't like it when the law is put forward as a whole. That they don't believe the answer is, repeal and everything is good. That some of the opposition is also from people who don't think the law goes far enough.

Where is Romney's replacement law since he has pledged to repeal Obamacare on the 1st day? If Romney and GOP want to be responsible for 25 million Americans not having insurance because people are believing the lies they told them about it, so be it.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Iran nuclear bomb Iran nuclear bomb Iran nuclear bomb Israel Israel Israel. That's your Miit Romney's entire foreign policy conversation during the debates.

Actually that would be a good drinking game, take a shot every time he mentions nuclear bomb in Iran or Israel. It would probably result in liver failure two questions in.
 

Jackson50

Member
What's more telling to me is that there haven't been any response polls from RNC or Berg's side.
What is it telling us, though? Perhaps they consider the race a lock? It's impossible to determine because of the paucity of data.
Mitt Romney: Arab Spring Could've Been Avoided By Bush's 'Freedom Agenda'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/27/mitt-romney-arab-spring_n_1710038.html

Wait, I thought the inane argument was the "freedom agenda" catalyzed the Arab Spring? Now it would have prevented its occurrence? Aside from the laughable notion that Obama abandoned democracy promotion, USAID-OTI, the MEPI, and other various programs all received funding increases, he's contradicting the arguments propagated by his ideological kinsmen. When he inevitably clarifies, I'm sure he'll predicate this on Obama's supposedly supine response to Iran's Green Revolution. And that will be a regurgitation of the tired criticism where Obama could have fixed everything with stronger rhetoric-an argument the redoubtable A27 lucidly explicated before he was banned.
Obama fails quite well on his own, I don't have to root for it. He'll go down in history as an inconsequential one term president after republicans destroy the health care law and Romney rides a recovery into re-election
For those who feared the thread would suffer from a lack of trolling after Kosmo's ban, no.
 

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
The foreign policy debate is going to be a glorious thing to behold.
Romney's handle on foreign policy is an absolute disgrace, and I'm not even sure at this point whether the blame lies with his advisors or the candiate.

Condoleezza Rice and others from the Bush administration waxed long and hard about Bush's 'Freedom Agenda' being the impetus for the Arab Spring, and now the GOP is moving towards the line that Obama failed Israel by not following this 'Feedom Agenda' and allowing the AS to occur. It's so woefully disingenuous and childish.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Romney's handle on foreign policy is an absolute disgrace, and I'm not even sure at this point whether the blame lies with his advisors or the candiate.

Well he did pick his advisors, so he should get the blame for it. Frankly most of the things that have gone wrong for him so far shouldn't have blown up the way they did, a decent team would have cut most of this off at the pass. If this is the job the team to get him elected is doing, then frankly I'm a little worried what his team to run the country would look like.
 
More DOOM

Zillow: US home values have finally bottomed out
SEATTLE (AP) — U.S. home values have risen four consecutive months, Zillow.com said on Tuesday, a trend that led the housing website to declare that the market has turned the corner from its five-year slump.

"After four months with rising home values and increasingly positive forecast data, it seems clear that the country has hit a bottom in home values," said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Seattle-based Zillow, which measures home values. "The housing recovery is holding together despite lower-than-expected job growth, indicating that it has some organic strength of its own."


The home value index in the second quarter rose on an annual basis for the first time since 2007, increasing 0.2 percent compared with last year's second quarter to $149,300, according to Zillow. Going back to March, values have now risen four months in a row.
 

Jackson50

Member
Romney's handle on foreign policy is an absolute disgrace, and I'm not even sure at this point whether the blame lies with his advisors or the candiate.

Condoleezza Rice and others from the Bush administration waxed long and hard about Bush's 'Freedom Agenda' being the impetus for the Arab Spring, and now the GOP is moving towards the line that Obama failed Israel by not following this 'Feedom Agenda' and allowing the AS to occur. It's so woefully disingenuous and childish.
Yeah. Obviously, Romney's knowledge of the topic is negligible. But his advisers have been woeful failures. Really, team Romney is awful. Further, I think the difficulty stems from a broader dilemma confronting Republicans. After the repudiation of Bush's foreign policy, the party's platform has been rudderless. Any scholar with a modicum of intellectual credibility has abandoned the neoconservative dogma. The strident isolationist minority hasn't gained traction. There's little coherence and Romney's being forced to assert his policies. Effectively, he's having to lead. And he's failing.
 
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