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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

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H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
Doesn't added 100k+ jobs while unemployment goes up mean more people both found jobs and filed for unemployment during the month?
 
E

electricpirate

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Bad for Barry.

UE Rate is more prevalent when voters look at the economy. Unless the August, September numbers bring down UE, it is bad for Obama.
Click to expand...

Voters don't look at these numbers, these numbers represent changes in the pool of voters and their feelings. The raise in UE is likely (anyone have a better breakdown than the AP?) more people saying "Hey things look better I'll start looking for work again." That's good for barry.

I wonder what the previous month's revisions were.

Edit: Confirmed, raise in Unemployment is from fewer discouraged workers, bad news though: June revised down 16k
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...ut-unemployment-rate-ticked-up-to-8-3-percent
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Oh come on, we have spent so much time over the last few months talking about how the UE rate is the best sign for voters on the economy when the rate started coming down from 9+
 
L

Loudninja

Member
electricpirate said:
Voters don't look at these numbers, these numbers represent changes in the pool of voters and their feelings. The raise in UE is likely (anyone have a better breakdown than the AP?) more people saying "Hey things look better I'll start looking for work again." That's good for barry.

I wonder what the previous month's revisions were.

Edit: Confirmed, raise in Unemployment is from fewer discouraged workers, bad news though: June revised down 16k
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...ut-unemployment-rate-ticked-up-to-8-3-percent
Click to expand...
May was revised up though
BLS revised its May and June figures slightly. In May, BLS now finds that the economy added 87,000 jobs — up from 77,000. But in June, it added only 64,000 — down from an already anemic 80,000.
Click to expand...
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/08/jobs-payrolls-unemployment-economy-july.php?ref=fpa
 
T

Tim-E

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Bad for Barry.

UE Rate is more prevalent when voters look at the economy. Unless the August, September numbers bring down UE, it is bad for Obama.
Click to expand...

Do you really think most voters analyze labor statistics before going to vote? If 8.2% hadn't hurt him in months prior, a .1% increase won't hurt him now.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Oh come on, we have spent so much time over the last few months talking about how the UE rate is the best sign for voters on the economy when the rate started coming down from 9+
Click to expand...
People vote their feelings. An ephemeral drop in the UE rate because only 50,000 jobs were created and people lost hope and dropped out of the labor market doesn't make people feel good. 163,000 people and their families will feel better this month; statistical tick upwards in the UE rate be damned.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Tim-E said:
Do you really think most voters analyze labor statistics before going to vote? If 8.2% hadn't hurt him in months prior, a .1% increase won't hurt him now.
Click to expand...

It is the direction, an upward direction is bad.

At the same time, if the rate now goes to 8.2 and then 8.1 on Sept/Oct it would be very good for him.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Voter Fraud ‘Study’ Authored By Republican Who Pleaded Guilty In Abramoff Scandal
A new paper claiming that voter ID laws actual protect rather than disenfranchise minority voters is getting play in conservative circles. What isn’t being mention so much is the background of the paper’s author.

Horace Cooper, the author of the paper, told the Daily Caller this week that voter fraud “criminals — more often than not — are Democrats violating the rights of people who tend to be black or senior.”

Cooper may not have any expertise on voter fraud, but he does know a thing or two about falsifying documents. Cooper was indicted in 2009 on five public corruption charges, charged with exchanging political favors for gifts from Jack Abramoff. Cooper allegedly accepted bribes as a staffer to former Majority Leader Dick Armey, as chief of staff for Voice of America and when he worked for the Department of Labor. Cooper later pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of falsifying a disclosure report and was sentenced to 36 months of probation.

Cooper asked a judge to shorten his sentence earlier this year so he could travel to Central Fiji on a trip paid for by Qorvis Communications, writing in a court document that he was hopeful a “more permanent employment relationship may develop” after the trip. A judge denied the motion. Currently, he is “self-employed as a writer and legal commentator, and operates a PR consulting service,” according to a court filing.
Click to expand...
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsme...study_horace_cooper_jack_abramoff.php?ref=fpb
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Another reason Obama needs to put Education front and center for re-election goo:

July jobless rate for people 25+ with bachelor's degree steady at 4.1%. High school grads: 8.7% (up 0.3). No h.s. diploma ticks up to 12.7%.
Click to expand...
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Romney better make a dent in obama's poll numbers quickly. If he cant corner an incumbent president sitting at 8.3% UE rate, he cant win. Job numbers are going to go nowhere but up from here.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
RustyNails said:
Romney better make a dent in obama's poll numbers quickly. If he cant corner an incumbent president sitting at 8.3% UE rate, he cant win. Job numbers are going to go nowhere but up from here.
Click to expand...

He hasn't been able to capitalize on the UE rate for months, I don't expect him to finally figure out how now. Just yelling "Look at how bad these unemployment numbers are!!!!' hasn't been working. This campaign is a disaster.
 
G

gcubed

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
It is the direction, an upward direction is bad.

At the same time, if the rate now goes to 8.2 and then 8.1 on Sept/Oct it would be very good for him.
Click to expand...

Its not going to continue going up through the fall, it'll tick down the next few months. I wouldn't be totally shocked if the rate hit 7.9 in November (the october numbers), depending on the participation rate.

When the rate hit 7.9 last time it did nothing for Obama's numbers either.
 
G

gcubed

Member
Manos: The Hans of Fate said:
It's actually a bit witty if you've seen the Obama campaign version that's the inspiration. I don't know why I want to send Barak a Birthday card, but I guess it's for loyalists vs neutrals. Still odd it's appearing in heavy circulation.
Click to expand...

some of them are terrible, some are witty. I'm more annoyed that its so poorly executed because they could have been awesome


gutter_trash said:
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/08/why-romney-should-pick-mccain-veep
rumors circulating about McCain for veep
Click to expand...

seriously? I mean you would instantly be branded the loser ticket. Its a terrible terrible idea
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
For the VP my money is on
Opus_the_Penguin_300.gif
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Dafuq @ mccain rumor. Dont those idiots know mccain passed on romney for vp? Why would he go on a ticket of someone he thrashed in primaries and picked sarah palin over him? Use common sense.
 
D

DasRaven

Member
Tim-E said:
He hasn't been able to capitalize on the UE rate for months, I don't expect him to finally figure out how now. Just yelling "Look at how bad these unemployment numbers are!!!!' hasn't been working. This campaign is a disaster.
Click to expand...

Romney surrogates: "Look at how bad these UE numbers are!!! Up to 8.3!"
Obama surrogates: "163,000 Jobs added, more to come thanks to the highway bill. Did you notice that gas prices have fallen about $.70 this Summer?
BTW, How did Romney get $100,000,000 into a tax deferred IRA when the legal limit is $6000 per year?"
Romney surrogates: "Where's the Occidental records!!!"

ToxicAdam said:
A Senator from Ohio.
Click to expand...
Give him his proper title, "Former George W. Bush Budget Director & Junior Senator from Ohio"
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Direction of UE matters a whole lot, morsel than the total number overall. If people look at the rate and see it going up, they feel bad about the economy. This is a point many people were making here not long ago mind you

163k jobs is welcome. I'm wondering whether UE will continue ticking up as people become less discouraged. If we average 163k that would be enough to keep up with population growth though so we'll see
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector establishments added 172,000 jobs last month, and overall non-farm payroll employment rose by 163,000. The economy has now added private sector jobs for 29 straight months, for a total of 4.5 million jobs during that period.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3% in July (or, more precisely, the rate rose from 8.217% in June to 8.254% in July). Acting BLS Commissioner John Galvin noted in his statement that the unemployment rate was “essentially unchanged” from June to July.

The establishment survey indicated that manufacturing employment continues to expand and manufacturers added 25,000 jobs in July. After losing millions of manufacturing jobs in the years before and during the recession, the economy has added 532,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2010 – the strongest growth for any 30-month period since June 1989. Within manufacturing, motor vehicles and parts added 12,800 jobs in July, its strongest monthly growth since January 2011, partly reflecting fewer seasonal layoffs last month. To continue the revival in manufacturing jobs and output, President Obama has proposed tax incentives for manufacturers, enhanced training for the workforce, and measures to create manufacturing hubs and discourage sending jobs overseas.

Other sectors with net job increases included professional and business services (+49,000), education and health services (+38,000), leisure and hospitality (+27,000), and wholesale trade (+9,200). Within leisure and hospitality, restaurant employment rose by 29,400 jobs. Government lost 9,000 jobs as State government payrolls fell by 6,000. Local governments shed 7,000 education jobs. Since February 2010, State and local governments have lost 485,000 jobs.
Click to expand...
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/08/03/employment-situation-july

Intresting

Obama closer to breaking even on jobs
The American economy only has to add another 316,000 jobs to get back to where it was in January 2009, when the president was sworn in.

Here's the math: 4.316 million jobs were lost in the first 13 months of Obama's presidency. Since he took office, 4 million net jobs have been added back.
Click to expand...
http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/03/news/economy/obama-jobs/
 
J

Jackson50

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Oh come on, we have spent so much time over the last few months talking about how the UE rate is the best sign for voters on the economy when the rate started coming down from 9+
Click to expand...
Some may have proposed that, but not everyone did. The optimal approach is to utilize a broad set of indicators. Perhaps the UE rate makes perceptions a bit nosier. Nonetheless, the report indicates the economy is expanding. And that's positive news for Obama. Although, I doubt the report has transformed the race. Obama was already the moderate favorite with modest growth. The attempt to spin this as "bad" for Obama is risible.
PhoenixDark said:
Direction of UE matters a whole lot, morsel than the total number overall. If people look at the rate and see it going up, they feel bad about the economy. This is a point many people were making here not long ago mind you

163k jobs is welcome. I'm wondering whether UE will continue ticking up as people become less discouraged. If we average 163k that would be enough to keep up with population growth though so we'll see
Click to expand...
No. There's no evidence to support that. The evidence is clear that the economy is expanding. Unless we suffer an unforeseen calamity, Obama is going to win.
 
G

gcubed

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Direction of UE matters a whole lot, morsel than the total number overall. If people look at the rate and see it going up, they feel bad about the economy. This is a point many people were making here not long ago mind you

163k jobs is welcome. I'm wondering whether UE will continue ticking up as people become less discouraged. If we average 163k that would be enough to keep up with population growth though so we'll see
Click to expand...

numbers get better through the fall, so hopefully it gets better from 163k. Although you would think that consumer sentiment would be rather good if people are coming back into the workforce instead of staying discouraged... so far those numbers aren't lining up.

The biggest boon to Obama's chances was the EU comments on not letting the Euro die.
 
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