Byakuya769
Member
Still time for Hillary to swoop in at the convention?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
- Start date
- Status
Still time for Hillary to swoop in at the convention?
BotoxAgent
Member
wait until after the convention, which will etch-a-sketch and reboot everything...and people will get to know the real Mitt Romney.
PLEASE!
Not if he caves to the pressure and puts Ryan on the ticket.
STRIKING DISTANCE
Aaron Strife
Banned
Take out the tracking polls (Gallup and Rasmussen) and you get this:
With Gallup/Ras it's +4.6, with Gallup but not Ras it's +5.5.
Obama's surging!
With Gallup/Ras it's +4.6, with Gallup but not Ras it's +5.5.
Obama's surging!
The Librarian
Banned
That'd be bad news for him too.
Take out the tracking polls (Gallup and Rasmussen) and you get this:
With Gallup/Ras it's +4.6, with Gallup but not Ras it's +5.5.
Obama's surging!
With news of Santorum coming to the convention, it makes sense.
TacticalFox88
Banned
I wonder if they realize they're doomed to absolute failure?
Byakuya769
Member
The convention's in Tampa, they're going to be partying hard, and it's a bunch of Republicans away from their families. Of course santorum will be there.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Oh please. Oh please oh please.
I'm getting excited about the possibility of it being Ryan. I need to not do this.
I hope not.
:lol
I hope not.
:lol
Eh, I think this Paul Ryan bellyaching is so folks can fully repudiate Romney as a Massachusetts liberal once he loses with someone like Portman or Pawlenty on the ticket.
PhoenixDark
Banned
The "Would Congress be better if it were run by Democrats or GOP" is close enough to a generic ballot question that I think this applies here:
D+6 means Pelosi gets her +35.
Yup, looking bad for Boehner. I still think the money/redistricting will ensure they hold, but dems could get 25+ seats if this trend continues.
I can no longer deny Romney's troubles. This is now multiple polls showing Obama with a big lead, even if you discount the questionable Pew poll. Romney's positives are down, and he has yet to present ANYTHING of interest for voters to talk about. "Lower taxes" isn't a plan. I'm baffled why he isn't rolling out policy ideas. For instance, adopting Santorum's manufacturing tax cut plan would make sense.
If Romney picks Ryan it'll be clear he's not truly running his own campaign. That would be a disastrous pick.
Black Republican
Member
hmm, are the cnn orc polls reliable?
Yep. "No wonder they lost; there were no true conservatives on the ticket!"
TacticalFox88
Banned
Aaron Strife
Banned
Obama is doomed
Quoting cause it needed to be quoted.
IIRC, CNN had a pretty healthy Dem house lean in the last presidential cycle. It's one of the reasons I look at Silver's numbers as often as I do the poll aggregations, because his model removes house leans.
Also, not that there was ever any doubt, but Obama's new ad makes it crystal clear that Reid's allegations of Romney dodging taxes have been coordinated with the Obama campaign. After a week of Reid raising hell, Obama is out with an ad painting Romney as a tax dodger and openly asking if he paid 0% in taxes.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/new-obama-ad-son-of-boss-pushes-romney
They said that Andrea Saul's comments marked the end of Romney's campaign. Nay. This is truly the day.
What madness is this?
This . . . this is a trick post, right?
Rocket Scientist
Member
Has a candidate ever lost after having led by Obama's current amount at this stage of the election? It's looking good for sure, but let's not forget there's a difficult road ahead guys.
Black Republican
Member
godamnit, wheres that the wire- weebey lookin over his shoulda gif?
The comments from Saul might actually be a turning point. The campaign has yet to really respond to all the backlash from the right.
Frum posted about this today -- the rule they're playing by is "better to lose the agenda than lose control of the party." Pushing Romney aggressively to the right, even if it costs him votes, makes sense if your goal is to control and purge the Republican Party rather than America. Of course, this isn't a great long-term plan, but American politics has never been about the long term.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
This is it folks
jamesinclair
Banned
RE: Romney making his millions off the backs of El Salvadoreans.
That would be a very effective way to completely finish destroying the GOP in the hispanic community.
Think of an ad....
Mix in an ominous announcer talking about the massacres and how Romney profited off it and show Romney with his shit-eating-grim smile and quotes such as "don't punish success" and "everyone can be rich if they work hard enough".
Even if El Salvadoreans make up a tiny portion of voters, that WILL have an effect as most latin americans have very strong memories of american imperialism. They already associate it with the republicans (Iraq) but this would cement it.
That would be a very effective way to completely finish destroying the GOP in the hispanic community.
Think of an ad....
Mix in an ominous announcer talking about the massacres and how Romney profited off it and show Romney with his shit-eating-grim smile and quotes such as "don't punish success" and "everyone can be rich if they work hard enough".
Even if El Salvadoreans make up a tiny portion of voters, that WILL have an effect as most latin americans have very strong memories of american imperialism. They already associate it with the republicans (Iraq) but this would cement it.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
For the love of all things holy and right, please stop. You truly are the Konex of politics/cinema/etc., so please stop jinxing the white house from not going to Romney. Just stop.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Basically I've argued that after the convention Romney will gain traction due to voters knowing him more, more bad economic data being released, VP bump, and undecideds moving to him. That certainly can still happen, and I'm not panicking per se but Romney isn't...connecting with anyone. I don't see how a boring white guy VP pick fixes that long term. And why should undecideds flock to someone they don't like, trust, or identify with?
I'm not jumping from Romney winning, I'm just concerned right now.
I'm not jumping from Romney winning, I'm just concerned right now.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Romney doesn't win he'll have to change his avatar on an online forum.
The misery!
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
If only Hillary were running! She'd DEFINITELY be a more liberal friendly President!
Black Republican
Member
romney really started to spiral into hell after the dream act lite exec order, obamacare ruling weeks later etc
PhoenixDark
Banned
I don't want Romney to win, I'm just concerned about his chances. He's floundering right now and it's painful to watch, knowing I could run this better - or any host of other people like Karl Rove. He's smarter than this, or should be.
I think we can all say we've never seen a campaign like it before.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
It's been awhile since you've had a good one like this.
Uh oh, PD getting shaky on Romney's chances? That means he's going to win.
edit: Santorum couldn't defend Romney on healthcare without laughing. lol
edit: Santorum couldn't defend Romney on healthcare without laughing. lol
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Eh, you're giving him too much credit. We all understand his game, we're just bored.
No way they're dumb enough to do that, right? I mean, this campaign has been a total disaster, but they're not going to be that dumb, right?
Right?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah, that's why it's so great.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Princeton Election Consortium uses median statistics to calculate their distributions, which is a really nice way of handling that kind of problem I think.
Anyway, it seems like the tax issue, foreign trip, and now health care stuff are really starting to pile on and make the Romney campaign look like a disaster. It really wouldn't surprise me if the spread started widening in the next few rounds of polling.
Knock on wood, and all that. By October 2008, it was pretty obvious that the presidential election was over and the goal was to run up the margin for the spillover effect on the Senate races. It would be nice to have a similar scenario here, especially with the way the Republican primaries have been going. Until the last couple weeks I wouldn't have dared hope for it.
- Status