I never quite understand these positions. Silver has the best track record of any analyst at predicting elections correct? What are you basing your position on, here?
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
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I never quite understand these positions. Silver has the best track record of any analyst at predicting elections correct? What are you basing your position on, here?
Stabenow's average lead was 2-4 points(early February), after the uproar it went to 5-7, now it is 7-12.
It could go a number of ways. If it were a comment from an interview only available in print format it probably wouldn't be as bad, but since it's available on video of the guy actually saying it, it could easily turn into this year's "Macaca moment". Being from Virginia, I remember George Allen's "Macaca moment" that put Webb in the Senate really helped turn that race, and the fact that it was on video definitely helped in bringing attention to it.
This might be potentially even more potent since it's relatable to an entire gender voting block, and the language doesn't have the same unfamiliarity that the term "Macaca" did at the time. I was honestly shocked the "Macaca" thing really had as much traction as it did since whenever it was brought up the term's origins really had to be explained. This "legitimate rape" and complete misunderstanding of how pregnancy works is much easier to get across to the general public.
I know. And that's laughable.
His modeling and related insight are superb. His off the cuff predictions before data roll in are often a ways of the mark. I'd like him to be right on this one, but some skepticism here is healthy.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If it's not doomsday for Democrats is biased and wrong.
Nate does statistical analysis on hundreds of polls through his proprietary model to predict elections. His statement here is based on his perception that the race (which polling has shown her losing) has turned around on these comments alone.
We aren't saying he is wrong, we are saying making a prediction here has no statistical basis. It's a gut instinct only and that is not the predictions that have made him successful.
This I can understand, but I wasnt referencing this particular case alone; Ive frequently seen posters criticize Silver more generally.
I wouldn't bet on MacCaskil just yet either, but I do think it is now her moment to seize the initiative. If she can make a big deal out of this she might just hold onto her seat.
Akin was by far the craziest of the primary challengers and the whole reason why Dems were excited about his nomination was because there was potential for him to mess up in a spectacular fashion.
Akin was by far the craziest of the primary challengers and the whole reason why Dems were excited about his nomination was because there was potential for him to mess up in a spectacular fashion.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yeah, I don't get where it comes from either. He probably has the most advanced model for predicting election results.
I also think he is right about "Legitimate Rape Gate" assuming it gets play.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I wouldn't question his models, but as Ghal said his political analysis is often questionable. Which is understandable considering he has said many times he doesn't consider himself a political analyst.
In terms of numbers, people forget he pretty much called 2010 near perfectly as well. He's not a one hit wonder
But the thing here is that the narrative for republicans is set and cast. All this stuff is just compounding it to the point where it will be an assumption about them until election day. They hate women and brown people, are scientifically backward and are working for billionaire tax breaks.
That doesn't mean they can't get elected but the above will be apparent until the ballots close. They can't fix that. Other things will have to supersede it.
I wasn't responding in the general, just to the specific item. In general, I think Nate's polling and modeling insights are second to none; I read his blog regularly.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Silver is doubling down
Akin Comments Could Swing Missouri Senate Race
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/19/akin-comments-could-swing-missouri-senate-race/
Akin Comments Could Swing Missouri Senate Race
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/19/akin-comments-could-swing-missouri-senate-race/
I'd argue it's one thing for there to be a general view of a party of being anti-women and/or anti-minority, and it's quite another for a voter to see someone running to represent their actual district or state say something that explicitly ties them to that view in a local or state-wide election. I think it works in the same way that generally people say they don't mind their Reps or Senators while at the same time Congress has horrendous approval ratings.
I didn't mean to give the impression that I don't like/trust Nate Silver. I have followed his analysis since he was just "Poblano" on DailyKos and I have the highest regard for his statistical models. However, in terms of by-the-gut politics he is on the level of a below-average pundit.
In other words, if he's analyzing hard numbers then his analysis is to be respected. And if he's guessing what future poll numbers are going to be (as he is in this case) then you're just as well off (or moreso) reading someone's guess on PoliGAF.
It is worth mentioning that Nate's forecast of the MO-SEN race will not change based on his instant "2:1" gut reaction to this Akin story, but rather on the polling that is to come.
He did drastically underestimate democratic turnout in the 08 Election. Obama ended up winning states like PA, NM, CO, and NV by quite a bigger margin than he predicted.
After reading this, I will revise my thoughts on Nate's prediction about how it could swing the race. He cites some convincing precedent. I'm very interested in the next round of polling for the Senate seat there. Given how much attention the comments got, I'm sure we'll have a fresh round of polling there soon.
True, but my memory is that he all but nailed the election result overall, missing just a super close state or two (Indiana). He also did a good job predicting the House in the 2010 election cycle.
Aaron Strife
Banned
PPP needs to go in Missouri next week. Of course I'm sure Ras will have a poll out saying Akin's actually gaining from this
I think the only Senate contest he missed in 2010 was Nevada, which was based on janky polling.GhaleonEB said:
Pretty sure the only states he got wrong were Indiana and NC.
Aaron Strife
Banned
He got North Carolina actually. Every state but IN.
there actually were in 2008.
Black Republican
Member
so Akin got till tuesday 5pm to dropout the race
speculawyer
Member
I hope Nate is correct but I'm skeptical. I'm so jaded that I don't think anti-woman scientific quackery hurts a candidate much in a red state. That GOP base is combination of crazy (believes the quackery) and craven (willing to put up with such quackery for tax cuts).
cartoon_soldier
Member
Nobody got IN though I believe.
From wiki:
One thing here is that Missouri is a more conservative than VA or MI I think.
ChoklitReign
Member
I like how Michelle Bachmann ads are now showing up while discussing Akin.
VA 2008 is debatable. MI for sure.
Aaron Strife
Banned
True, but Akin is ahead by a smaller margin than Allen was.
speculawyer
Member
Wow.
I hope Hank Williams gets lots of press appearances to spread that message. That brand of crazy will turn off independents. And Romney is so spineless that he won't denounce it unless he is cornered.
Yeah, he's Muslim that hates the US and the military . . . and that is why he had Seal Team Six take out Usama Bin Laden. Makes perfect sense.
Muslim is the new "N" word.
CHEEZMO
Obsidian fan
That was so you wouldn't supect him, bro!
Typical stealth jihad tactics.
Semper Vigilans
Aaron Strife
Banned
So Obama hates farming which is why Republicans in Congress are blocking the farm bill.
Also what will let Heidi Heitkamp keep ND for the Democrats, but whatever.
Also what will let Heidi Heitkamp keep ND for the Democrats, but whatever.
There's something about this President that makes some people go crazy. What could it be?
CHEEZMO
Obsidian fan
CHEEZMO
Obsidian fan
No, that's what Obummer does at his secret Nation of Islam meetings.
Four_Chamber
Member
Weird, but so what? It's distasteful because they were doing it on our dime in large part to pander to Christian Fundamentalists, but as for swimming in the ocean at night? Who cares?
Wonder why the FBI was investigating though.
speculawyer
Member
It probably wasn't on our dime . . . they were probably free 'fact-finding' trips given by Israel or some Israel-supporter group. And that is arguably worse since it is corruption, IMHO.
That's probably it, the FBI is probably looking to see if it counts as a bribe or a pay off or something.
el retorno
Member
Just catching up with the Sunday talk shows, and one thing that stood out for me is the defence from conservatives of Ryans plan to voucherise Medicare. Their argument is that the American people want choice in their healthcare; they want the responsibility and accountability of making their own choices when it comes to access to healthcare services.
My question is: Who actually think likes this?
My understanding is that a lot of Americans have a negative view of their relationship with their private health insurance company. Why would they want to replicate those issues in their old age when they need access to reliable health care the most?
My question is: Who actually think likes this?
My understanding is that a lot of Americans have a negative view of their relationship with their private health insurance company. Why would they want to replicate those issues in their old age when they need access to reliable health care the most?
Kiss my ass! The Sea of Galilee is a holy site to the Jewish people!
el retorno
Member
Its holy to Christians
The best thing about this story is the following quote:
Rep. Kevin Yoder said:
What a wonderful way to describe skinny dipping. I look forward to similar phrasing being used in future scandals.
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