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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

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A

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
Officerrob said:
The problem is that the primary didn't exist in a vacuum. All the positions that he said he stood for that will undoubtedly change for the general when he finally decides to stand for something (self-deportation anyone?) will be used to further cement his flip-floppiness.
Click to expand...

At this point, I don't think anybody whether they are Republican, Democrat, or independent expects anything of Romney. Just somebody who will sign whatever Republican-backed bill arrives at his desk.

So you can't just keep attacking his own credibility, as he already has none. You have to somehow associate him with the craziest fringes of the Republican party. Make him seem like that shy guy who would never have the balls to speak up in class but will set a house on fire if some frat boys asked him to.

THAT is the Mitt Romney the public will fear.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
A new Quinnipiac poll finds President Obama with leads in the important battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Florida: Obama 45%, Romney 41%

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 38%

Pennsylvania: Obama 45%, Romney 39%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: "If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through election day he would be virtually assured of re-election."
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Mr. Brown, if he keeps leads in just two of those states, he is assured of re-election.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns...ac-swing-states-inch-toward-obama-127411.html
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Like I said before, Romney isn't winning Ohio. The job market is surging here, so Romney looks like a clown coming here saying that the economy is in horrible shape.

He looks even worse when the Republican governor of Ohio says that the economy is awesome, and that there's plenty of jobs available. It contradicts his entire presidential campaign.

He also stupidly supported senate bill 5 last year, so he's royally fucked himself.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Dr. Pangloss said:
No one remembers, except for all of the television footage. Also, if he tracks too far to the middle (ex. Obama's immigration executive order), then I'm sure the conservative base that elected him in the primary won't care either. I agree with you, no one cares what Romney had to say or think back then. He won the audition to just stand there at the debate as the anti-Obama. No need to actually answer any questions about his time at Bain or what he wants to specifically cut from the budget or say immigration. We can wait till after the conventions when Obama has already framed him as the corporate raider.
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Unless Romney unconditionally endorses the Democratic platform, the conservative base will not forsake him. I've seen that exact scenario posited numerous times, but the rationale is erroneous. And when Obama and the Democrats intensify their attacks, the conservatives are going to be galvanized.
Officerrob said:
The problem is that the primary didn't exist in a vacuum. All the positions that he said he stood for that will undoubtedly change for the general when he finally decides to stand for something (self-deportation anyone?) will be used to further cement his flip-floppiness.
Click to expand...
I think many are overestimating the effect of highlighting his reputation as a flip-flopping fiend. I'd estimate most have already incorporated his congenital pandering into their perception of him. Although, the one group with which it could appreciably resonate is undecided voters. They tend to be independents still disengaged from the process. Still, if one pays even a modicum of attention to national politics, I'd they're already familiar with that particular foible.
 
C

codhand

Member
Quinnipiac poll you say?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

pollacc1.png
 
G

gcubed

Member
Wheres all the US politicians sitting on TV saying "its snowing, lol global warming" today? Half the country is over 100 degrees.

why isnt there stupidity coming on both ends?
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Hawkian said:
Ahh hoo boy, I'm late to the party on this one.

Hey, is there any common prediction on when a Romney VP announcement is gonna come?
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There seems to be little method to when a nominee announces their running mate. Some, such as Bill Clinton and John Kerry, announced their running mates in early July, whereas Barack Obama and Bob Dole waited until August. I'll go out on a limb and predict before the Convention.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Stinkles said:
If Rasmussen just did consumer polling they would be fired by any intelligent company for ludicrous and predictable Inaccuracy. Look at all that shit.
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And yet Marist is EVEN WORSE. that is perhaps more mindblowing. Not the fact that Rasmussen is bad, that much is obvious, but that there is someone worse out there. :p
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
AlteredBeast said:
And yet Marist is EVEN WORSE. that is perhaps more mindblowing. Not the fact that Rasmussen is bad, that much is obvious, but that there is someone worse out there. :p
Click to expand...

Don't tell fox news, they may switch.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
AlteredBeast said:
And yet Marist is EVEN WORSE. that is perhaps more mindblowing. Not the fact that Rasmussen is bad, that much is obvious, but that there is someone worse out there. :p
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Only 14 polls were available for computing Marist's ranking. That's not much data to draw a firm conclusion, whereas Rasmussen's total is quite robust. Further, Rasmussen's average error was considerable. And as the article notes, their insistence on employing substandard survey methods is cause for concern. I'm unaware of a systematic evaluation of their performance hitherto this cycle, but it seems to have improved slightly. And their polls were previously of respectable quality.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Durable goods orders surpassed expectations in May. Of particular importance was the increase in non-defense capital goods. That portends healthy growth in forthcoming quarters.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft climbed 1.6 percent after a 1.4 percent decline in the prior month. These bookings are considered a proxy for future business investment in items such as computers, engines and communications gear.
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Fox318 said:
Rush will be back from his vacation then.
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We wait with bated breath.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
Stinkles said:
If Rasmussen just did consumer polling they would be fired by any intelligent company for ludicrous and predictable Inaccuracy. Look at all that shit.
Click to expand...

Not defending Rasmussen, but looking at one polling cyle and making broad-based judgements of an outfit is the epitome of idiocy.
 
D

Diablos

Member
ToxicAdam said:
The people that Romney needs to win over won't be paying attention until then anyways.

Also, if Romney hangs his hat on any kind of novelty. middle-of-the-road economic proposal, all Obama and the House Dems have to do it propose it in a bill and watch the hilarity ensue.
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I dunno, but I think the most important thing here is that it's still fairly early and Obama's hitting Romney pretty hard. It tells me that they're seriously prepared to go on the offensive and aren't messing around. It is swaying opinion, too, which can change but honestly this is pretty impressive on Obama's behalf.

I would not count on Congressional Democrats to be as smart as you proposed.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
ToxicAdam said:
Not defending Rasmussen, but looking at one polling cyle and making broad-based judgements of an outfit is the epitome of idiocy.
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It's not necessarily their performance from 2010. It's their utilization of suspect methods.

Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.

Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious since party identification (unlike characteristics like age and gender) is often quite fluid.
Click to expand...
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Diablos said:
I would not count on Congressional Democrats to be as smart as you proposed.
Click to expand...

You could, however, make the argument that they're significantly more likely to 'be smart' than they were in the previous session of Congress, based solely on the fact that there's significantly less ideological variation in the Democratic Party's elected officials in the 112th Congress vs the 111th (though that's thanks to half the Blue Dogs getting replaced with GOP freshmen)
 
D

Diablos

Member
eBay Huckster said:
You could, however, make the argument that they're significantly more likely to 'be smart' than they were in the previous session of Congress, based solely on the fact that there's significantly less ideological variation in the Democratic Party's elected officials in the 112th Congress vs the 111th (though that's thanks to half the Blue Dogs getting replaced with GOP freshmen)
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We'll see...
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
On a total side note, I can't help but notice that my State Department internship this fall is likely going to start just prior to the entire state of Ohio getting buried under a sea of shit in the form of SuperPAC ads.

(And by "can't help but notice" I mean "think it's fucking awesome".)
 
D

Diablos

Member
eBay Huckster said:
On a total side note, I can't help but notice that my State Department internship this fall is likely going to start just prior to the entire state of Ohio getting buried under a sea of shit in the form of SuperPAC ads.

(And by "can't help but notice" I mean "think it's fucking awesome".)
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We have a mole!
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Nice leads for Obama in OH/PA/FL. Surprising that he's leading by a larger margin in Ohio than in Pennsylvania, though I'd still give him the latter before the former.

There was also a poll in Virginia that had him up 7, but it's from a relatively new pollster so who knows how well it'll hold up. VA is probably his most important battleground state, in any case, but the mainstream media doesn't want to admit it's not a red state anymore.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Texas GOP opposes CRITICAL THINKING. lmao

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/20...-policies-in-texas-republicans-2012-platform/

4) It opposes multicultural education and “critical thinking”: “We believe the current teaching of a multicultural curriculum is divisive,” the platform says, adding that it supports teaching “common American identity and loyalty instead of political correctness that nurtures alienation among racial and ethnic groups.” In Arizona, where Republicans banned multicultural programs, students in those programs actually out-performed their peers. Texas Republicans also believe “controversial theories” such evolution and climate change — which aren’t controversial at all — “should be taught as challengeable scientific theories subject to change as new data is produced.” There’s more: the GOP also opposes the teaching of “critical thinking skills” because they “focus on behavior modification and have the purpose of challenging the student’s fixed beliefs and undermining parental authority.”
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It's all Incognito's fault.

Srsly though, what a bunch of neanderthals.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
4) It opposes multicultural education and “critical thinking”: “We believe the current teaching of a multicultural curriculum is divisive,” the platform says, adding that it supports teaching “common American identity and loyalty instead of political correctness that nurtures alienation among racial and ethnic groups.” In Arizona, where Republicans banned multicultural programs, students in those programs actually out-performed their peers. Texas Republicans also believe “controversial theories” such evolution and climate change — which aren’t controversial at all — “should be taught as challengeable scientific theories subject to change as new data is produced.” There’s more: the GOP also opposes the teaching of “critical thinking skills” because they “focus on behavior modification and have the purpose of challenging the student’s fixed beliefs and undermining parental authority.”
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If I believed all the bullshit my parents/grandparents believed I'd be dumb as a fucking post right now.

But, this is Texas, so I am not surprised.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
makingmusic476 said:
Kinda sad Jon didn't call out Marc when he made the asinine comment about a single payer system destroying our quality of healthcare. Because the government merely paying our medical bills will somehow make hospitals shit the bed when it comes to care.

But man, Stewart got so giddy when he mentioned passing single payer lol.
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It was nice to see Stewart challenge some his BS, like with the filibuster (What because Republicans are suddenly going to stop filibustering things they don't like if amendments are passed?) but Rubio numbers were just wrong for the bulk, and a bunch of his arguments fall apart if Jon presses in a few more places. Most notably his laughable diagnosis for why our economy is seeing an anemic recovery, and what to do about it. Another was his assertion that Americans wouldn't accept the quality drop in Single payer.

I mean, when someone comes on and spouts lies for 25 minutes, it's hard to refute each point without it devolving into a powerpoint presentation. Stewart did about as well as could be expected when presented with that, and better most cable news interviewers.

But goddamn Rubio spouted some concentrated bullshit.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
Jackson50 said:
It's not necessarily their performance from 2010. It's their utilization of suspect methods.
Click to expand...



From what I have read, Rasmussen makes a prediction on voter turnout and weights their Voter ID accordingly. In 2010, it would appear they gambled on a bigger Republican turnout then actually occurred. Not an uninformed assumption considering what the political climate was back then.

From 2004-2008 they were generally on the spot.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
ToxicAdam said:
From what I have read, Rasmussen makes a prediction on voter turnout and weights their Voter ID accordingly. In 2010, it would appear they gambled on a bigger Republican turnout then actually occurred. Not an uninformed assumption considering what the political climate was back then.

From 2004-2008 they were generally on the spot.
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Yeah. Silver mentioned that particular method in the article posted earlier. And that's probably one of the reasons their samples had typically larger errors. Further, failing to incorporate cell phones in your sample has become fairly problematic. Which may partially explain why their performance had deteriorated this past cycle. Still, I don't discount their polls as many seem to, but they should be digested with a bit of skepticism.
Clevinger said:
I heard something about a weird oversampling of Democrats in that Ohio poll. I'm positive it's closer than that.
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The Party ID weights they employ produce a sample comparable to 2008's demographics. Which is admittedly the latest baseline, but I'm not convinced those are realistic weights.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Why the Health Care Law Might Be Upheld

Despite conventional wisdom that most or all of President Obama's health care law will be overturned by the Supreme Court tomorrow, Tom Goldstein of SCOTUSblog disagrees:

"I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow. Far less important, I expect the principal opinion will be written by the Chief Justice; a majority of the Court will find it has jurisdiction; and the challenge to the Medicaid expansion will be rejected."

"Most observers disagree. There are certainly good reasons to believe the Court will invalidate the mandate. Most important, at the oral argument, the questions of two critical Justices - Justice Kennedy and the Chief Justice - were on the whole critical of the mandate's constitutionality. But in the end, based on the entire mix of information I have, I think the mandate will not be struck down tomorrow."
Click to expand...
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/06/27/why_the_health_care_law_might_be_upheld.html

Meh
 
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