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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

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Loudninja

Member
Obama Email Sets DCCC Single-Day Fundraising Record
Vulnerable Democrats in tight races — like Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill — might be downplaying their enthusiasm for President Obama, but a fundraising email sent Monday shows Democratic donors are still excited by the president.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reports that a fundraising email from Obama raised $580,000, the largest single-day online fundraising haul in DCCC history.

Obama’s DCCC email was targeted at the Democratic grassroots. Here’s the full text, sent to the DCCC’s list:
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...-email-sets-record-at-dccc.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
 
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...pands-to-8-points-in-swing-states.php?ref=fpb

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Gaining Ground In Swing States



Bain attack ads seems to be working.

We talk about Obama being swiftboated, but I think this is what is actually is happening to Romney. He has never come up with a valid answer to Obama's attacks on his Bain record. Sure these ads won't have much effect on those of a conservative persuasion, but they are not aimed at them. They are aimed at independents. People that don't follow the day to day stories, and the ads are setting a narrative. Romney doesn't bother to use positive ads to highlight his time as governor or CEO of Bain. All he does is attack Obama's record. People might not be happy with Obama's progress, but are they willing to take a chance on the guy these ads portray. Latest advert in swing states. I don't believe they will.
 
People can write off surprise iran attack as october surprise. The bigger threat we have is syrian conflict escalation, as turkey gets embroiled in it pulling NATO along. That will skyrocket gas prices and we'll have another conflict on our laps
 

eznark

Banned
jgypf.jpg

Wall of Shame from |OT1|

PD really skyrocketed over the last 10 pages of OT1! Sorry about the piss poor quality, at work :p

ugh, I don't think I made more than ten posts prior to the Walker recall week.
 
:lol

obama's approval with indys in Ohio is 9/65. yet he's still winning by three (47-44) because of how much people dislike Romney.

i'm finding it hard to believe that he's even up if this is the case

e: oh, that's his approval with UNDECIDEDS, his indy approval's more like 37/53
 

Jackson50

Member
more analysis regarding overcapacity and oil is discussed at http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/06/26/1060031/houston-we-have-an-overcapacity-problem/ today. specifically, they refer to a research paper conducted by the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard (pdf, 86 pages) that concludes that the world will have an abundance of oil for a long, long time.
Aside from the strategic implications, geopolitics have already been affected, this probably snuffs the motivation for a robust climate change regime.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...pands-to-8-points-in-swing-states.php?ref=fpb

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Gaining Ground In Swing States



Bain attack ads seems to be working.
Mainstream political analysis is laughably destitute. Romney's favorability rating shifted only three points in a month. To adduce such a miniscule shift as evidence of the effectiveness of the Bain attacks is unfounded.
 
Mainstream political analysis is laughably destitute. Romney's favorability rating shifted only three points in a month. To adduce such a miniscule shift as evidence of the effectiveness of the Bain attacks is unfounded.

Especially as the best Bain attacks and news just came out i.e. outsourcing pioneer in chief.
 
People can write off surprise iran attack as october surprise. The bigger threat we have is syrian conflict escalation, as turkey gets embroiled in it pulling NATO along. That will skyrocket gas prices and we'll have another conflict on our laps

I know it sounds extremely wrong, but if any conflict happens, I reallllly hope it's AFTER November 7th. :(
 

Chichikov

Member
Let's say Israel attacks Iran in October. Does that slow down Campaign Obama?
Netanyahu doesn't know a lot of things, but he knows American politics, that's why he'll never attack in October.
If Obama wins, he'll have to deal with a pretty hostile 2nd term president (I'm sure he wouldn't say anything public, but man, he will not be happy) and if he loses, he'll have to manage a pretty serious conflict with an angry lame duck in the white house.
 

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...pands-to-8-points-in-swing-states.php?ref=fpb

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Gaining Ground In Swing States



President Obama clings to a small lead nationally in a new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, leading Republican Mitt Romney 47 percent to 44 percent. The president’s advantage widens in the states typically considered up for grabs — Obama leads by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent) in a combined sample of voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

“Also in these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped, possibly reflecting the toll the negative Obama TV advertisements are having on the former Massachusetts governor in these battlegrounds,” MSNBC’s FirstRead blog wrote. Those attacks include a sustained critique of Romney’s time at Bain Capital, the private equity firm that he co-founded.

Obama’s rating on the economy remains largely unchanged from previous NBC/WSJ polls: 42 percent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy, while 53 percent disapprove — a trend that has held throughout 2012. The numbers also show that Obama’s rebuttal against Romney’s business experience seems to be working.

Bain attack ads seems to be working.


hmm.
 
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...pands-to-8-points-in-swing-states.php?ref=fpb

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Gaining Ground In Swing States



Bain attack ads seems to be working.

See? Media-ites hated it and felt uncomfortable because they likely knew someone that worked at a private equity firm. Criticizing those would be awkward.

Regular folk don't give a fuck about that because they don't know about people who work in private equity firms. It's a world apart, and Obama's criticisms of those corporations rang true to them.
 

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
Speaking of which, I remember debating the topic with someone in the thread who predicted a compromise would be brokered before summer. Well, no.

That was probably me. The Obama administration will never let negotiations completely break down or else Israel will use that as license to start airstrikes, and that will be gigantic mess.

As far as delaying it past July 1, that's obviously to use the last bit of diplomatic leverage they can. At that point, Iran will come forward with their absolute final offer (which is already basically everything the West is demanding). The only real concession Iran is asking for is acknowledgement that Iran has the right to enrich uranium for civilian use, which is a big demand in election season.

But it's not as bad as airstrikes and a mini-war which is the best case scenario if Israel gets involved.
 

markatisu

Member
It should not surprise anyone that the Bain attacks are hurting Romney, Gingrinch and Santorum hurt Romney with similar attacks but they were train wrecks and were also part of the same party so its hard to make those attacks as effective.

The more these ads run and the more Romney refuses to answer questions or provide plans the lower his numbers will go.

"I will do the opposite of Obama" for every answer is just not going to fly as we get closer to November.
 

Loudninja

Member
If anyone cares:
Hakeem Jeffries Defeats Charles Barron In New York House Race
State Rep. Hakeem Jeffries has won the Democratic primary in New York’s 8th Congressional District to succeed retiring Rep. Ed Towns, defeating controversial City Councilman Charles Barron.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/hakeem-jeffries-defeats-charles-barron-in-new-york

Orrin Hatch Wins Utah GOP Primary
Sen. Orrin Hatch has won his Republican primary in deep-red Utah, beating back tea party insurgent efforts that had felled his fellow Utah Senator Bob Bennett two years ago.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/orrin-hatch-wins-utah-gop-primary

Charlie Rangel won as well.
 

Amir0x

Banned
I just wish Obama would have a really amazing Romney flip flop ad series for tv in the fall.

I mean Romney now has so many sound bites where he is directly contradicting himself that it would be an epic fail to not have an insane "which Romney do we have today?" commercial series
 
Romney looks like a complete clown. His strategy seems to be that the general election truly starts right before the conventions, meaning he can cruise into late July with few details. It may be true that Americans only start paying attention around that time but he's letting Obama frame him as a dithering flip flopper who can't take a position.

Of course, it might not matter if summer jobs numbers continue to be a disaster.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Romney looks like a complete clown. His strategy seems to be that the general election truly starts right before the conventions, meaning he can cruise into late July with few details. It may be true that Americans only start paying attention around that time but he's letting Obama frame him as a dithering flip flopper who can't take a position.

Of course, it might not matter if summer jobs numbers continue to be a disaster.


The people that Romney needs to win over won't be paying attention until then anyways.

Also, if Romney hangs his hat on any kind of novelty. middle-of-the-road economic proposal, all Obama and the House Dems have to do it propose it in a bill and watch the hilarity ensue.
 

Kosmo

Banned
Romney looks like a complete clown. His strategy seems to be that the general election truly starts right before the conventions, meaning he can cruise into late July with few details. It may be true that Americans only start paying attention around that time but he's letting Obama frame him as a dithering flip flopper who can't take a position.

Of course, it might not matter if summer jobs numbers continue to be a disaster.

He's right, though. Remember the "primary is too tough and will weaken the candidate" BS from 3-4 months ago? Who even remembers what the hot issues were during the primary - nobody. And Romney is banking a ton of money.

It doesn't matter how many points Obama scores now, it means nothing until we are into the general.
 

leroidys

Member
Goddamn at the Stewart/Rubio cage match. I never realized before that Rubio is just a walking, talking Republican talking point. He's like McConnell JR.

link
 

Chichikov

Member
It's not about the electorate remembering.
He will be challenged on that by ads, interviews and on the debate.

Sadly, I cannot at this time make an electoral prediction based on that point.
 

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
Romney looks like a complete clown. His strategy seems to be that the general election truly starts right before the conventions, meaning he can cruise into late July with few details. It may be true that Americans only start paying attention around that time but he's letting Obama frame him as a dithering flip flopper who can't take a position.
So, a perfect campaign so far?
 

Jackson50

Member
Romney looks like a complete clown. His strategy seems to be that the general election truly starts right before the conventions, meaning he can cruise into late July with few details. It may be true that Americans only start paying attention around that time but he's letting Obama frame him as a dithering flip flopper who can't take a position.

Of course, it might not matter if summer jobs numbers continue to be a disaster.
Hmmmm. Have you not been extolling the Romney campaign since the primary concluded? Hmmmm.
That was probably me. The Obama administration will never let negotiations completely break down or else Israel will use that as license to start airstrikes, and that will be gigantic mess.

As far as delaying it past July 1, that's obviously to use the last bit of diplomatic leverage they can. At that point, Iran will come forward with their absolute final offer (which is already basically everything the West is demanding). The only real concession Iran is asking for is acknowledgement that Iran has the right to enrich uranium for civilian use, which is a big demand in election season.

But it's not as bad as airstrikes and a mini-war which is the best case scenario if Israel gets involved.
The negotiations have encountered impasses before without engendering an Israeli strike; see the fruitless negotiations in Istanbul in 2011 which spectacularly fizzled. I don't think they're as important to the calculus as popularly conceived. Regardless, the negotiations were imperiled from the onset. The United States, who is the predominant director of the P5+1, has little impetus to compromise; note, given their current framework-objectively, it behooves them to compromise. They have isolated Iran, and the advent of electronic warfare only increases their leverage. As you note, Iran desires recognition of its right to pursue enrichment in addition to an abatement of sanctions. The United States is not going to yield on either aspect. So, the status quo perpetuates as we kick the can down the road.
 
Romney's campaign has been pitch perfect. I don't know what you guys are talking about.

Americans will come to recognize that his work at Bain Capital created jobs at Staples.
 

Jackson50

Member
Romney's campaign has been pitch perfect. I don't know what you guys are talking about.

Americans will come to recognize that his work at Bain Capital created jobs at Staples.
He's a brilliant tactician. In every instance where Obama has gained the advantage, Romney deftly counters and redirects the attack against Obama. Take the dog fiasco. The Obama Campaign embarrasses him...until he dredges up the passage from one of Obama's books and now everyone knows him as Barry the dog eater. Best campaign ever.
 

Averon

Member
One of the most basic rules in electoral politics is define yourself to voters before your opponent does it for you. Romney already built a reputation of being a flip-flopping (ironically a term popularized by the GOP in 2004 against Kerry), pandering clown. Him being defined as a blood sucking, job killing exec is something he doesn't need.
 

Jackson50

Member
One of the most basic rules in electoral politics is define yourself to voters before your opponent does it for you. Romney already built a reputation of being a flip-flopping (ironically a term popularized by the GOP in 2004 against Kerry), pandering clown. Him being defined as a blood sucking, job killing exec is something he doesn't need.
Blood sucking, job killing exec? Sounds like Obama.
 
He's right, though. Remember the "primary is too tough and will weaken the candidate" BS from 3-4 months ago? Who even remembers what the hot issues were during the primary - nobody. And Romney is banking a ton of money.

It doesn't matter how many points Obama scores now, it means nothing until we are into the general.

No one remembers, except for all of the television footage. Also, if he tracks too far to the middle (ex. Obama's immigration executive order), then I'm sure the conservative base that elected him in the primary won't care either. I agree with you, no one cares what Romney had to say or think back then. He won the audition to just stand there at the debate as the anti-Obama. No need to actually answer any questions about his time at Bain or what he wants to specifically cut from the budget or say immigration. We can wait till after the conventions when Obama has already framed him as the corporate raider.
 
He's right, though. Remember the "primary is too tough and will weaken the candidate" BS from 3-4 months ago? Who even remembers what the hot issues were during the primary - nobody. And Romney is banking a ton of money.

It doesn't matter how many points Obama scores now, it means nothing until we are into the general.

Which is probably why Obama hasn't rolled out primary footage of Romney yet. It'll hit around late July or August I guess
 
Blood sucking, job killing exec? Sounds like Obama.
Remember when Obama was the Republican governor of Massachusetts?

He's a brilliant tactician. In every instance where Obama has gained the advantage, Romney deftly counters and redirects the attack against Obama. Take the dog fiasco. The Obama Campaign embarrasses him...until he dredges up the passage from one of Obama's books and now everyone knows him as Barry the dog eater. Best campaign ever.
My favorite was that whole thing where Osama bin Laden was killed under Obama's watch. That could have been disastrous for Romney, if he didn't point out that Obama is arrogant for taking the credit! Aha!
 
Goddamn at the Stewart/Rubio cage match. I never realized before that Rubio is just a walking, talking Republican talking point. He's like McConnell JR.

link

Kinda sad Jon didn't call out Marc when he made the asinine comment about a single payer system destroying our quality of healthcare. Because the government merely paying our medical bills will somehow make hospitals shit the bed when it comes to care.

But man, Stewart got so giddy when he mentioned passing single payer lol.
 
He's right, though. Remember the "primary is too tough and will weaken the candidate" BS from 3-4 months ago? Who even remembers what the hot issues were during the primary - nobody. And Romney is banking a ton of money.

It doesn't matter how many points Obama scores now, it means nothing until we are into the general.

The problem is that the primary didn't exist in a vacuum. All the positions that he said he stood for that will undoubtedly change for the general when he finally decides to stand for something (self-deportation anyone?) will be used to further cement his flip-floppiness.
 
People can write off surprise iran attack as october surprise. The bigger threat we have is syrian conflict escalation, as turkey gets embroiled in it pulling NATO along. That will skyrocket gas prices and we'll have another conflict on our laps
doesnt romneys tax extension end mid october? hmmmm
 
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