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[pigeon]

Sorry guys, I guess I'll save the trolling for all vicinities outside of poligaf.

Mostly I was just amazed at how effectively you trolled me before I realized what was going on. At first I was like, oh, Rubin finally wrote something reasonable. Obviously that was a crazy idea.

Hey, PoliGAF, I have a question. Please forgive my entering the circlejerk, preaching to the choir, etc., but I am genuinely curious.

We have two major parties in our political system and, for the sake of brevity, each can field a candidate for the office of President. If voter turnout was close to 100%, the Republicans would not be able to win a nationwide race, as the parties are currently defined. As such, their only hope of winning is for many, many people not to cast votes, i.e. not let their voices be heard.

To repeat, if we take "one man: one voice" of the whole country, it is not possible for the Republican candidate to win the Presidency. Their only chance to win is if people don't vote. They can only win if people are too busy, too lazy, too disinterested, too bitter, etc.

To me, that makes their policies and their platform incompatible with democracy. They're basically admitting, via voter suppression tactics, that if each person lets her/his voice be heard, they would not win.

What I don't get is how a person running under this strategy can be considered a legitimate candidate. By definition, such a person is not running in hopes of convincing the most people of his or her views, but is running in hopes that people don't care enough. That's anti-democratic to me, and against the spirit of the Constitution.

I'm curious as to why this is not more of a scandal, and why not many seem to care about it outside of blogs, satirical shows, and some pundits.

America has always been founded on the principle of extending the franchise only to the people we like. Originally, only white men with property could vote! And even today, convicted felons lose their vote for no particularly clear reason. So, although I don't think people consciously think about it, I think that there's kind of a tacit understanding in America that the vote is not an inalienable right. I do think this is wrong, though -- and that's one reason I think election modernization should be a policy goal for the Democrats if they get a united government. (Because there's no way any Republican would vote for it.)

 

[RDreamer]

<3 Bernie Sanders

 

[Aaron Strife]

lol:

Oh Mitt Romney. You really can't win, can you.

Lost the Senate race in 1994.

Won the governorship in 2002!... but Democrats in the legislature had a 3/4ths majority anyway, and by 2006 he was so unpopular he simply dropped out of the race rather than run for re-election and get shitcanned.

Lost the primaries in 2008.

Barely won the primaries in 2012 against disgraced former Senator Rick Santorum, disgraced Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, literal successor to George Bush Rick Perry, and crazy Canadian woman from Minnesota Michele Bachmann who actually cowers in fear at gay people.

Now going to lose in a landslide to Obama, who pundits have been doomsaying for the past 3 years.

 

[Devolution]

For the people wondering what Timedog and I were up to:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=490503

 

[Forever]

lol:

I predict this.

Do it, America.

 

[Clevinger]

Oh Mitt Romney. You really can't win, can you.

Lost the Senate race in 1994.

Won the governorship in 2002!... but Democrats in the legislature had a 3/4ths majority anyway, and by 2006 he was so unpopular he simply dropped out of the race rather than run for re-election and get shitcanned.

Lost the primaries in 2008.

Barely won the primaries in 2012 against disgraced former Senator Rick Santorum, disgraced Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, literal successor to George Bush Rick Perry, and crazy Canadian woman from Minnesota Michele Bachmann who actually cowers in fear at gay people.

Now going to lose in a landslide to Obama, who pundits have been doomsaying for the past 3 years.

I'm still not convinced he'll lose, if only for Citizens United. It certainly won't be a landslide. But if he does lose, there's one moment I'm looking forward to so much. It's petty, but whatever.

Now, I don't think he's ever cared about being in the senate, or being a governor. That was all a stepping stone to running for president. So if I'm right, he's been more or less running for president since 1994, minus a few years.

When he gives his concession speech, it will be right after he's realized that he wasted more than a decade of his life trying to get something he never will achieve; something his immense fortune can't buy him. And I'm going to be like Cartman in South Park licking up those tears he's going to shed. And for once in his campaign, that emotion will be genuine.

 

[PhoenixDark]

If Romney loses, what will he do next? Go back to the private sector perhaps, or just remain an unemployed rich guy. Clearly the republican party will want nothing to do with him in any capacity outside of raising money; I doubt he'll show up for a 2016 RNC speech, or get invited.

 

[Chumly]

For the people wondering what Timedog and I were up to:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=490503

Amazing

 

[The Librarian]

 

[Clevinger]

If Romney loses, what will he do next? Go back to the private sector perhaps, or just remain an unemployed rich guy. Clearly the republican party will want nothing to do with him in any capacity outside of raising money; I doubt he'll show up for a 2016 RNC speech, or get invited.

Private sector, probably. I can't imagine he'd want anything to do with politics anymore.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'm still not convinced he'll lose, if only for Citizens United. It certainly won't be a landslide. But if he does lose, there's one moment I'm looking forward to so much. It's petty, but whatever.

Now, I don't think he's ever cared about being in the senate, or being a governor. That was all a stepping stone to running for president. So if I'm right, he's been more or less running for president since 1994, minus a few years.

When he gives his concession speech, it will be right after he's realized that he wasted more than a decade of his life trying to get something he never will achieve; something his immense fortune can't buy him. And I'm going to be like Cartman in South Park licking up those tears he's going to shed. And for once in his campaign, that emotion will be genuine.

Well, an electoral college landslide anyway. I think Obama will win with over 300 EVs.

 

[ErasureAcer]

This board needs to be reminded of this.

Just made my first contribution to the Obama Campaign(supported Nader last go around) after seeing the money bomb report of 700,000+ donors this week. Looks like they got there last night but better late than never I guess. I didn't give as much as I gave Nader last time but the election isn't upon us yet so maybe I can make it there over the next 60 days.

 

[speculawyer]

Obama made an unannounced stop at Gators Dockside -- one of many surprise visits he makes to local businesses as a candidate for reelection -- and mingled with the patrons. Upon hearing that Andre, who turns seven next week, was born in Hawaii, the president asked: "You were born in Hawaii? You have a birth certificate?" The joke got laughs, according the pool reporter Helene Cooper of the New York Times.

Now the GOPers will say . . . see! He jokes about it . . . why can't Romney?!?! Derp.

 

[Suikoguy]

Just made my first contribution to the Obama Campaign(supported Nader last go around) after seeing the money bomb report of 700,000+ donors this week. Looks like they got there last night but better late than never I guess. I didn't give as much as I gave Nader last time but the election isn't upon us yet so maybe I can make it there over the next 60 days.

Last election I was working and gave a donation, this year I'm in College, but I did educate my parents on the issues, so + 3 in Florida

 

[HylianTom]

The reactions down here in Louisiana are going to be incredible to witness. While fireworks ring-out and people dance in the streets across the city, it's going to be a completely different story everywhere else in the state, where many (perhaps most?) folks loathe this man with the fire of a thousand suns.

WhiIe out in rural Mississippi a few months ago, I actually had one bile-filled woman at a gas station tell me that I'm an "traitor for supporting that man" and that "God will judge" me.. just from seeing my bumper sticker. It's folks like that whom I'll think of when I raise my glass to toast victory on Election Night.

 

[Gruco]

I said this a page or so ago but it deserves emphasis - even strong debate performances weren't enough to help Kerry recover from this exact scenario.

 

[RDreamer]

Just put in my first campaign donation ever. Feels good to put my money where my mouth is.

Also, Obama's website is really slick. It has a big setup so you can call people and a script and everything for it. It's even got leaderboards and stuff for the people that really get into that. If I weren't so phone skittish I'd probably do it.

 

[BuggyDClown]

Just put in my first campaign donation ever. Feels good to put my money where my mouth is.

Also, Obama's website is really slick. It has a big setup so you can call people and a script and everything for it. It's even got leaderboards and stuff for the people that really get into that. If I weren't so phone skittish I'd probably do it.

I did the same the other day. Never contributed before. Felt good.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Here's my wild prediction.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=xgS

 

[Aaron Strife]

My actual prediction is 347-191. So basically Obama wins all toss-up states including FL and NC.

I admit I've been a little hesitant to send money to Obama. Last cycle I donated to Russ Feingold and Tarryl Clark (Bachmann's challenger) and well... seems like I had the magic touch. Though I did send 5 bucks to Kathy Hochul.

Also contributed to the DNC fund so I guess that covers it.

 

[RDreamer]

I think I'll go with this as a prediction

Edit: Changed Virginia. I had it Red, but I forgot about that whole Virgil Goode thing, which should push Obama over the edge there.

 

[PhoenixDark]

To be fair, it's looking like an Obama +4 bump, compared to Romney's +1.6-2. We don't know the full extent of the bump yet, and while it's certainly a good bump I'm puzzled at why Silver suggests this could basically be the end of the election.

Romney is going to have to start getting serious and talk details. His campaign has basically been based on inevitability, ie "the economy sucks so I'm going to win." Clearly that's not going to work. He can still win, but his campaign needs some restructuring ASAP

 

[Diablos]

Whoa, whoa. Silver is getting too excited.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm sticking with Obama winning NH-VA-OH-MI-WI-IA-CO-NV, and I'm giving Romney NC-FL.

303-235

And I'm already going-over the order in which the networks will call the states on that night, playing it out in my mind. Virginia being called early would prompt me to start popping open the champaigne.

 

[RDreamer]

To be fair, it's looking like an Obama +4 bump, compared to Romney's +1.6-2. We don't know the full extent of the bump yet, and while it's certainly a good bump I'm puzzled at why Silver suggests this could basically be the end of the election.

Romney is going to have to start getting serious and talk details. His campaign has basically been based on inevitability, ie "the economy sucks so I'm going to win." Clearly that's not going to work. He can still win, but his campaign needs some restructuring ASAP

I think the problem now is that there are really relatively few big events between now and election for Romney to really get his name out and change things. At least none on par with the RNC. That was his big infomercial, and he blew it... or the Dems just hit it out of the park. That combined with the fact that there are so few undecided voters even left is probably what's doing it.

That said with all these things from Nate I kind of feel like I'm falling into a bubble and I don't want to do that. I don't want to be like those delusional Freerepublic guys, lol. I think Obama still has a chance to lose this, but Romney would have to hit it out of the park at the debates and we'd have to get a bump up in unemployment.

I'm sticking with Obama winning NH-VA-OH-MI-WI-IA-CO-NV, and I'm giving Romney NC-FL.

303-235

And I'm already going-over the order in which the networks will call the states on that night. Virginia being called early would prompt me to start popping open the champaigne.

That's my exact prediction, too. I had flipped Virginia, because it looks like a tight race over there, but then I remembered Goode got onto the ballot. That should be interesting to see how badly that hurts Romney.

 

[Jackson50]

I think limits are okay. You don't want an FDR kind of thing where a sick old guy keeps winning votes because everyone loves him.

However, I think Congress should get term limits also. That would make folks actually get things done

No. Term limits would produce more problems than they solve. The premise is appealing but spurious.

I love clinton as SoS but what monumental goals has she gotten accomplished?
Shes a great person to send around but I don't think SHE herself is getting things gone.

I don't think she's a Kissinger or Acheson.

She's failed to produce a signature policy in the manner of George Marshall or Henry Kissinger. But that was not requested of her. President Obama assigned her a different role. And in that respect, she's been reasonably successful. She's traveled extensively as Secretary of State. And with a few exceptions, she's proved a competent diplomat.

Both Acheson and Kissinger were amazingly and fundamentally wrong about the USSR, and they got both Korea and Vietnam under their belt.
So I'm going to say 'no' (and I'm going to say fuck Kissinger, fuck him and the realpolitik horse he rode on).

Clinton did a masterful job handling the withdrawal from Iraq, the situation with Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Arab spring.
Also, the work this administration is doing in southeast Asia is a bigger deal than most people realize, and at the end of the day, might be their most important legacy (though smart money is still on universal healthcare).

p.s.
I generally think such ranking are silly (hence the cheeky trademark sign) but if I had to choose a contender, James Baker did some nice work in his tenure.

I'd not include Afghanistan and Pakistan as examples of success. Moreover, Obama's charged the special envoy with directing policy in both states. A hallmark of Obama's foreign policy has been his preference for special envoys outside the traditional hierarchy of the State Department. Regardless, she's been largely successful. Her performance in engendering support for, or reducing opposition to, the UN Resolution establishing a no-fly zone over Libya was masterful. I think it was a mistake. But if I were forced to intervene, I'd pursue an identical strategy. Her performance in Southeast Asia, as I've posted on frequently, has been fruitful. Additional areas of success have been the reform of developmental aid and institutional reform at the State Department. If I had to compare her to another Secretary of State, I'd say Hamilton Fish is an apt comparison. His performance is often overlooked, but he was a capable diplomat who reformed the State Department.

 

[Measley]

I wonder if Paul Ryan being a confirmed liar has effected Romney's chances. I bet he wished he had chosen Rob Portman now.

 

[Effect]

Question. Why is Alaska a red state? Everything on the west coast is blue but that. Granted it's far north and connected to Canada but what would exactly cause it be so red?

 

[Jackson50]

I wonder if Paul Ryan being a confirmed liar has effected Romney's chances. I bet he wished he had chosen Rob Portman now.

Probably. America values the integrity of sporting achievements.

 

[Diablos]

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=xhr

Thinking this might be how the EV's play out as of right now.

 

[Cheebo]

Whoa, whoa. Silver is getting too excited.

Silver is a hardcore Obama fan, 538 started as posts of his at dailykos remember. He is a great guy with his numbers but I think he is on a convention high.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Question. Why is Alaska a red state? Everything on the west coast is blue but that. Granted it's far north and connected to Canada but what would exactly cause it be so red?

Highly populated urban centres -> Metropolitan attitudes -> Dems (NYC, San Francisco etc)

Sparsely populated rural areas -> Hick attitudes -> Rethugs (All the rest of NY state and CA etc)

Anchorage is tiny.

 

[Aaron Strife]

To be fair, it's looking like an Obama +4 bump, compared to Romney's +1.6-2. We don't know the full extent of the bump yet, and while it's certainly a good bump I'm puzzled at why Silver suggests this could basically be the end of the election.

Romney is going to have to start getting serious and talk details. His campaign has basically been based on inevitability, ie "the economy sucks so I'm going to win." Clearly that's not going to work. He can still win, but his campaign needs some restructuring ASAP

It's about a 4 point bump right now, but the trackers aren't showing us the full picture yet. Obama's up by 4 in the Gallup poll but that's a 7 day tracker, so it still includes Romney's "bounce." Silver figures he's been up by 7-9 points over the past couple of days to have moved the needle that quickly, which is much higher than he'd predicted. His approval rating is a 3-day tracker, and it sits at a much more impressive 52% (9 pt bounce since before the convention).

Combine that with Ras/Ipsos polling also not showing the full extent of Obama's bounce yet, and PPP's tweet about 2012 looking like 2008, and there's reason to believe this might have a lasting effect. I also wouldn't be surprised if he was receiving internal polling data from the Obama campaign, as it was recently revealed he did in 2008.

Here's what he said on Sept 4 before the convention:

And if Mr. Obama gets a bounce that&#8217;s a bit better than modest &#8212; say, he leads in the national polls by in the neighborhood five or six points next week, as Mr. Bush did following his convention in 2004 &#8212; Mr. Romney&#8217;s position will start to look fairly grim.

If 5-6 points is grim, 7-9 points must be dire.

Some of that bounce will probably dissipate, but if Obama performs strongly in the debates and the status quo more or less preserves itself through election day, he might be able to hold onto that lead.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Silver is a hardcore Obama fan, 538 started as posts of his at dailykos remember. He is a great guy with his numbers but I think he is on a convention high.

He's never let that dictate or influence his numbers though. I do think that he might be reading too much into things, but we'll know for sure in a few days. Of course, PPP is releasing a bunch of polls tomorrow that will increase Obama's numbers even more..

I'd imagine Obama's overall bounce will be 4 when all is said and done; solid, and puts Romney in a hole.

 

[HylianTom]

So.. Ohio is looking damn good at this point. And Romney's guys are confirming it.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html

President Barack Obama heads out of the national political conventions with a much clearer path to winning, top advisers to Mitt Romney privately concede.

Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now, with a high single-digit edge, based on their internal tracking numbers of conservative groups. Romney can still win the presidency if he loses Ohio, but it’s extremely difficult.

I'm looking forward to the entertaining infighting and panicked strategy-switching that we usually get to witness as time draws down. I mean.. holy crap, it's already September 8th. Time's flying! Tick-tock, Mr. Romney!

 

[Diablos]

Will the real PD please stand up?

 

[RDreamer]

I wonder if Paul Ryan being a confirmed liar has effected Romney's chances. I bet he wished he had chosen Rob Portman now.

I think it would have been fine were it not for the huge headlines about Ryan's lying after his RNC speech. That had to hurt.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=xhr

Thinking this might be how the EV's play out as of right now.

I really don't think Wisconsin'll flip. It might get close, but after seeing that polling by Marquette I don't think it'll flip. The medicare issue just isn't a winning issue from Romney/Ryan.

 

[Cloudy]

I wonder if Paul Ryan being a confirmed liar has effected Romney's chances. I bet he wished he had chosen Rob Portman now.

OH is way more important than WI but I guess they wanted to excite the base? I think the first debate is really important though. Obama has to win it decisively and crush Romney's hopes

 

[Jackson50]

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=xhr

Thinking this might be how the EV's play out as of right now.

Still riding that post-convention high?

 

[Diablos]

Still riding that post-convention high?

No... I am discrediting it and thinking about reality on election day. I think WI is close enough to flip but will be negated and then some by all the other states he's competitive in.

What's your map look like, Jackson?

 

[Cheebo]

Is this the part of the race when Romney suspends his campaign so he can fix the economy and demands Obama do the same?

 

[Aaron Strife]

So.. Ohio is looking damn good at this point. And Romney's guys are confirming it.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html



I'm looking forward to the entertaining infighting and panicked strategy-switching that we usually get to witness as time draws down. I mean.. holy crap, it's already September 8th. Time's flying! Tick-tock, Mr. Romney!

"It's all about jobs and the economy!"

"GOD GUNS GAYS BIRTH CONTROL LIBERAL MEDIA JEWS"

 

[Jackson50]

No... I am discrediting it and thinking about reality on election day. I think WI is close enough to flip but will be negated and then some by all the other states he's competitive in.

What's your map look like, Jackson?

It's nearly identical to yours except I'd flip Wisconsin.

 

[PhoenixDark]

So.. Ohio is looking damn good at this point. And Romney's guys are confirming it.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html



I'm looking forward to the entertaining infighting and panicked strategy-switching that we usually get to witness as time draws down. I mean.. holy crap, it's already September 8th. Time's flying! Tick-tock, Mr. Romney!

well that confirms last week's report about the Obama camp finding a 9% Ohio lead in their internals

 

[Y2Kev]

When do Ayers and Wright start coming out? I figure Ann Romney will lead that charge and Paul Ryan will get involved too. I forget when Palin started with that crap. Was it early October? The economy had already collapsed by then.

I don't think Nate is saying the election has been decided, just that there are years when the convention solidifies what will actually happen and gets most undecided to admit they're not really undecided (excepting the attention whores that continue to grace the cover of CNN iReporter and fill the internet with sewage) and this could be one of those years.

The RNC was extraordinarily weak. I mean, even from within my liberal bubble, the media went after Paul Ryan as if he weren't their rockstar sex symbol. Was very confusing and I remain confused. When you couple a weak coming out party with a weak comer-outer, it can be really damning.

I'm worried about the debates though. I thought Obama was fairly weak in 2008 and it was just that McCain was a complete disaster. Does anyone feel confident about those?

Still, completely OUTSIDE the realm of concern trolling, I fear a weak September jobs report or something in Europe. I think Europe will be stable for at least the next two months given the ECB's recent news, but you can never be certain. And the PAC money is very scary too. I'm not worried Obama will lose this (I think the electoral math just looks ridiculous for Romney), but just the thought of him losing makes me nauseous.

 

[Trakdown]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politic...at-lengths-to-keep-gas-prices-high-ryan-says/

“Don’t forget the fact that he has tried lots of things to try and prevent drilling for natural gas and oil on public lands,” Ryan said. “Lets not forget the fact that the regulations coming out of the EPA are making it harder for us to harness home grown American energy.”

Sounds like we'll be seeing Drill Baby Drill rear its ugly head again soon. Unsurprisingly.

Ryan then moved on to how he would lower gas prices in a Romney/Ryan administration, but stayed away from specifics, instead saying domestic production of energy should be increased, something he mentions on the stump daily.

Wasn't this the big criticism of the DNC by the GOP?

 

[Aaron Strife]

When do Ayers and Wright start coming out? I figure Ann Romney will lead that charge and Paul Ryan will get involved too. I forget when Palin started with that crap. Was it early October? The economy had already collapsed by then.

Nah, Romney himself will do it and manage to offend everyone in the process.

I'm worried about the debates though. I thought Obama was fairly weak in 2008 and it was just that McCain was a complete disaster. Does anyone feel confident about those?

However Obama's performance is, they found the perfect guy to play Romney.

Your next secretary of state!

 

[Y2Kev]

I guess he just has to tie in the debates? A tie won't move the needle for Romney.

 

[Clevinger]

When do Ayers and Wright start coming out? I figure Ann Romney will lead that charge and Paul Ryan will get involved too. I forget when Palin started with that crap. Was it early October? The economy had already collapsed by then.

SuperPACs. Romney doesn't need to dirty his hands. Things are about to get very ugly, and I think those things are just the tip of the iceberg.

 

[Effect]

Highly populated urban centres -> Metropolitan attitudes -> Dems (NYC, San Francisco etc)

Sparsely populated rural areas -> Hick attitudes -> Rethugs (All the rest of NY state and CA etc)

Anchorage is tiny.

Finally looked up the city and had no clue the population was so low. Guess I always figured Anchorage was bigger then it was.