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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Anybody have a factcheck for the VP debate?
I'd link to the NYTimes one but I'm on my phone. Easy way to know who lied is to look when Biden laughed, each one was a Ryan lie.
I feel for you. The process is tedious. And when you finish, you wait...and wait. Good luck.i may be posting less ITT in the next month or so, graduate/law school admission season is kicking into high gear and i need to get on fine-tuning my personal statements and getting my letters of rec written within the next couple weeks in addition to applications
(especially given that one school on my shortlist has a regular deadline of november 1)
SouthernDragon
Member
Are you guys nervous?
Go and campaign.
Go and campaign.
Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Real good day for Romney in the polls. Maybe his best yet. He's now up to almost 40% in our forecast. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
.
.Quote:
Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Real good day for Romney in the polls. Maybe his best yet. He's now up to almost 40% in our forecast. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
.
I am officially in panic mode. Good GOD.
Damnit.
I should've bought in on Intrade now rather than when it was higher
Fenderputty
Banned
Why do I come into this thread?
Already posted earlier.
eBay Huckster
Member
Damnit.
I should've bought in on Intrade now rather than when it was higher
man, if they put obama under $5 on intrade i am buying 100 shares of that in an instant.
like really, that's an extra (little under) $500 in my pocket right there
Black Mamba
Member
i told you it would move up today. Just wait. It should come down a bit tomorrow and the next day.
Then some more state polls will come in.
Then some more state polls will come in.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Wow. Obama's debate performance may end up costing him the election.
eBay Huckster
Member
feed me your panic, poligaf
(i'll need it so i won't be drinking alcohol on an empty stomach tonight)
(i'll need it so i won't be drinking alcohol on an empty stomach tonight)
D
Deleted member 1159
Unconfirmed Member
It's really depressing that the apparent formula for political success in the country now is to go lie your ass off, completely contradict yourself from 5 minutes ago, and hope nobody calls you out on it. Obama should be embarrassed he didn't lay the smack down each time Romney recanted or lied. This has to be the most epic debate performance ever to turn the tides so very far.
Fenderputty
Banned
i told you it would move up today. Just wait. It should come down a bit tomorrow and the next day.
Then some more state polls will come in.
You keep saying this and I keep clinging to it.
If he loses, I think we have to be disgusted with someone so disinterested in playing the game he would risk the entire country.Wow. Obama's debate performance may end up costing him the election.
I have no idea,ARG maybe?Do nate's models take into account polls from today or from the past few days? What polls came out that were so good for him today?
cartoon_soldier
Member
Do nate's models take into account polls from today or from the past few days? What polls came out that were so good for him today?
Every poll
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/12/latest_swing_state_polls.html
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
You people are fucking ridiculous.
Thanks, Baghdad Bob.
"Everything's OK, guys! Nothing is wrong!"
Four_Chamber
Member
Amazing that a shitty debate can move the polls so much in the modern era. Obama better come out firing on Tuesday. Really disappointed, especially given how Biden wiped the floor with Ryan. As a somewhat decent evaluator of debates (having debated for a long time), the Romney ass-kicking on the first night was similar in scope to the domination of Ryan by Biden. Let's see what Obama does to follow-up. It's crazy but I think another bad debate will hurt Obama's momentum.
If he loses this election, I won't have fond memories of Obama. This election is too important to screw up.
If he loses this election, I won't have fond memories of Obama. This election is too important to screw up.
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
Obama has one poor debate and the whole country goes nuts. What the fuck America?
Basically crappy poll outlets.
This is the problem.
eBay Huckster
Member
rasmussen, ARG, and an unknown w/ wacky 15-point swings within the same sample
Black Mamba
Member
It's actually incorrect to say today was a good day of polling, per se.
Today was going to knock out most of everything pre-debate in a lot of Silver's model. therefore, even if Romney had a bad polling day, it would still increase because today would still be better than all the pre-debate stuff.
There's also been a glut of right leaning polls in swing states entering the model. Some asshole pollster needs to give Florida +10 to fuck over that other poll, lol.
As I said, if this continues come Monday, then you worry. The actual trackers aren't indicated the bounce sustaining itself. We need more state polling. It's been a bit quiet, honestly.
Also, fucking Obama with his no-show.
Today was going to knock out most of everything pre-debate in a lot of Silver's model. therefore, even if Romney had a bad polling day, it would still increase because today would still be better than all the pre-debate stuff.
There's also been a glut of right leaning polls in swing states entering the model. Some asshole pollster needs to give Florida +10 to fuck over that other poll, lol.
As I said, if this continues come Monday, then you worry. The actual trackers aren't indicated the bounce sustaining itself. We need more state polling. It's been a bit quiet, honestly.
Also, fucking Obama with his no-show.
Obama has one poor debate and the whole country goes nuts. What the fuck America?
I think it's actually that Romney had a GOOD debate. Romney came out looking strong and legitimate, which contrasts with how he was previously seen. Obama has to put him back in his place or this will be an extremely tight race.
A lot of those are Ras polls, but still. The CO one is concerning.
eBay Huckster
Member
A lot of those are Ras polls, but still. The CO one is concerning.
the CO one actually isn't very different from anything we've seen for the past couple months
though i would say we wouldn't all be discussing this if obama hadn't decided to nap on stage last tuesday
BotoxAgent
Member
It's really depressing that the apparent formula for political success in the country now is to go lie your ass off, completely contradict yourself from 5 minutes ago, and hope nobody calls you out on it. Obama should be embarrassed he didn't lay the smack down each time Romney recanted or lied. This has to be the most epic debate performance ever to turn the tides so very far.
Well Romney did lie all the time, but Obama let them pass. And judging by the extent of those lies, it deserved an epic smackdown. Now he legitimized them in the wake of low-information voters.
How the hell can Obama not know this? Jesus Christ.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Affirmative action and the Voting Rights Act to be struck down, Romney gaining in the polls, Republicans to probably keep the house; why did I ever start following politics?
Obama still leads in Ohio, one of those polls has Obama up in NC, and Florida and Colorado are too close to call.
I'm supposed to be worried about this?
eBay Huckster
Member
hey diablos, you've got competition
Obama still leads in Ohio, one of those polls has Obama up in NC, and Florida and Colorado are too close to call.
I'm supposed to be worried about this?
If you're not slitting your wrists, you're apparently doing it wrong.
God, whoever it was that said "when polls are bad for republicans, they want to kill the pollster. When polls are bad for democrats, they want to kill themselves" has officially achieved enlightenment.
Reuters/Ipsos debate poll
Biden 42
Ryan 35
Biden 42
Ryan 35
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/us-usa-campaign-debate-poll-idUSBRE89B1AK20121012The energetic Biden claimed a seven-point victory - 42 percent to 35 percent - among registered voters, with a similar margin among independents. Nearly a quarter of registered voters and about a third of independents were unsure who did a better job during the debate at Centre College in Danville, Kentucky.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
I saw this the other day, amazing.
If you're not slitting your wrists, you're apparently doing it wrong.
God, whoever it was that said "when polls are bad for republicans, they want to kill the pollster. When polls are bad for democrats, they want to kill themselves" has officially achieved enlightenment.
It's true though.
It's also true that Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line.
Problems those are some of the worst polling outlets.Obama still leads in Ohio, one of those polls has Obama up in NC, and Florida and Colorado are too close to call.
I'm supposed to be worried about this?
I surprise Zogby did not show up yet.
PhoenixDark
Banned
If he loses, I think we have to be disgusted with someone so disinterested in playing the game he would risk the entire country.
It's not an isolated incident. He rarely does press conferences and refuses to backslap with his own party because he doesn't like playing the game. And that disdain for the process ran so deep he couldn't even prepare or show up for an important debate. That strikes me as arrogance
There are people who's lives literally depend on an Obama win due to Obamacare. If that thought doesn't will him out of this ugly state of indifference, why should any true democrat defend this man if he winds up losing reelection. Carter lost fighting the good fight, and is respected by his party. That will not happen if Obama loses because he didn't want to bother himself with a debate.
Well Romney did lie all the time, but Obama let them pass. And judging by the extent of those lies, it deserved an epic smackdown. Now he legitimized them in the wake of low-information voters.
How the hell can Obama not know this? Jesus Christ.
Too be fair to Obama, he was also the victim of a media who was hungering for a horse race. The media really oberblew his debate loss, and it didn't help that liberals lost their minds. Republicans are rushing to Ryan's defense in the media. Obama had no such security blanket. His base folded like a lawn chair.
Too be fair to Obama, he was also the victim of a media who was hungering for a horse race. The media really oberblew his debate loss, and it didn't help that liberals lost their minds. Republicans are rushing to Ryan's defense in the media. Obama had no such security blanket. His base folded like a lawn chair.
This is true. Ryan got annihilated last night but you won't find a single Republican who'll admit it. They cover for their man even when he slips and falls on his face.
Because the Republicans won't admit defeat, the predominant narrative today is that it was a fucking tie. Democrats should learn from this.
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