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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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E

eBay Huckster

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Maybe you will, you seem like a smart guy and I wouldn't bet against you. And when you graduation you just might find a job with Romney in office
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the joke is that i'm not getting into harvard in this universe, much like mitt romney isn't winning ohio in this universe (but he is in the one where he opposed SB5 and didn't say "let detroit go bankrupt")
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
This place is going to be pants-reeking-of-piss crazy over the last twenty days, isn't it? Polls all over the place, no clear leader, different events happening every few days to mix-up the momentum, everything coming down to early voting and GOTV efforts..

I do love political drama!
 
E

ezekial45

Banned
HylianTom said:
This place is going to be pants-reeking-of-piss crazy over the last twenty days, isn't it? Polls all over the place, no clear leader, different events happening every few days to mix-up the momentum, everything coming down to early voting and GOTV efforts..

I do love political drama!
Click to expand...

We know drama.
 
F

Forever

Banned
HylianTom said:
Pretty much.

When Ohio shows signs of cracking and when Obama's huge ground game advantage dissipates, then I'll start to get jittery. It isn't looking as pretty as a few weeks ago, but the job will still get done.

Looking forward to that PPP Ohio poll tomorrow. If it's four more with Obama at or above 50, I'm going to laugh like a loon.
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You need to disabuse yourself of this notion that his ground game will make up for being behind in the polls. If it's even roughly tied in Ohio, voter suppression will carry it for Romney.
 
L

LegendofJoe

Member
ezekial45 said:
We know drama.
Click to expand...

TNT-Logo.gif
 
A

Averon

Member
Currently, I'm looking at two states: Ohio and Virginia. If Obama takes both, he'll likely win, but if they split, it will be a longer night. Of course if Romney takes both, then...yeah.

If it's even roughly tied in Ohio, voter suppression will carry it for Romney.
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Which is why Obama is baking in as big a lead into election day as possible from early voting, which he is up big in.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Diablos said:
Like every Mass. voter said there's no way Brown would win against Coakley.
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like that, except not really, because *every single indicator* in this state - polling, positions taken likely to piss off ohio voters, partisan identification, the fact that every single attempt at voter suppression has been struck down, and early voting - says romney's not winning.

ohioan poligaf posters across the political spectrum are saying romney isn't winning this state barring an outside event. debates aren't changing our minds.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Forever said:
You need to disabuse yourself of this notion that his ground game will make up for being behind in the polls. If it's even roughly tied in Ohio, voter suppression will carry it for Romney.
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Weren't most of the suppression tactics struck down, or did I miss something? Kind of hard to follow all of those things...
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
So my guess is the press would LOVE for Obama to come "storming back" on Tuesday, setting the stage for a decisive Game er Debate 3 for "all the marbles".
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
ryutaro's mama said:
So my guess is the press would LOVE for Obama to come "storming back" on Tuesday, setting the stage for a decisive Game er Debate 3 for "all the marbles".
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That only happens if Obama actually performs. If we get a middling performance, or a not-good-enough one that leads to polls showing Romney won, the narrative will be that Obama dropped the ball with the game on the line.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
PhoenixDark said:
That only happens if Obama actually performs. If we get a middling performance, or a not-good-enough one that leads to polls showing Romney won, the narrative will be that Obama dropped the ball with the game on the line.
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Dude, that's a given--in your rush to troll, you missed my entire point.

That's NOT what the media would prefer.

They would LOVE a down to the wire finish and Obama having a great debate would give them that.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Yep the media wants to create the impression that both sides have an equal chance to win going into November. An Obama defeat again would destroy that narrative. News are all about the ratings which makes me ashamed that PBS isn't funded/watched more with actual real analysis. The media's obession with all opinions being treated the same regardless of how stupid they are is disgusting.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
RDreamer said:
Arguing with Manos about drone strikes.
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damn, hope he doesn't get into another one of those arguments in a couple weeks

Loudninja said:
Posting this again.

I do not trust polls that swing this much.

HPU NC poll
Obama 46
Romney 45
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-significant-post-debate-shift-seen-in-north

Anyone heard of this poll?
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i don't think i've heard of them.

and i find both halves of their sample equally improbable, because no goddamn way is NC outside 5 points either way. not this year.
 
A

Allard

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
Dude, that's a given--in your rush to troll, you missed my entire point.

That's NOT what the media would prefer.

They would LOVE a down to the wire finish and Obama having a great debate would give them that.
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A slight Romney win next week would actually tighten the race lol, the media will want to see Romney win it under that pretense. No matter how much Romney has tightened the polls since his debate he is still LOSING, not winning. A 'draw' is a win for Obama but its not over, a win for Obama finishes the election, a Win for Romney tightens the race to near a draw.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Diablos said:
You have got to be kidding me.

That's a losing strategy. He would only be entitled to one more term and the party isn't going to nominate someone who could not get re-elected, who previously lost his re-election bid. By 2024 if the Democrats don't have someone else to inspire the base the party will be in terrible shape.
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not unless they had a younger vp they wanted to prop up as a two-termer.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Loudninja said:
What? we been saying this all the long.

Romney still hads very few paths to victory.
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Right, and I think Obama's lead is already baked into Iowa and Ohio that it'll be enough to get him re-elected regardless of what happens.

I just felt much more comfortable when he had a solid lead in Virginia and New Hampshire, and a small-but-significant one in Florida and Colorado.

At least NC is a toss-up again on TPM's poll aggregate.

Also, Reuters tightened up. Romney now leads by 1 - he led by 3 yesterday. Biden won the debate 42-35.

I think it's safe to call the national vote a tie at the moment with Obama maintaining an advantage in the swing states.
 
D

Dreamcaster

Banned
Cyan said:
Who cares, it's hilarious. Stealing a story from Kurt frickin Cobain?
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Is there evidence they called her Bean before last night? If not, I would be suspicious. If so, then it's probably just something that pretty common, like every guy who's 6'5" 300lbs being nicknamed "Tiny."
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
metalslimer said:
Yep the media wants to create the impression that both sides have an equal chance to win going into November. An Obama defeat again would destroy that narrative. News are all about the ratings which makes me ashamed that PBS isn't funded/watched more with actual real analysis
Click to expand...

That's why it makes sense to have the narrative from last night be that it was a "tie" and the VPs just held serve for the top of the ticket and excited their respective bases.

This is all about Obama vs. Romney, as it should be.

In my mind, the election can be won by Romney on Tuesday if Obama bombs out again, but it goes back to my basketball analogy:

Obama had an extraordinarily poor shooting night while Romney played outta his mind. The likelihood of both those things happening again are low in my opinion.

Obama is the POTUS already and it's difficult to get motivated for challenges when you are the reigning champion. Now it's crunch time.

Now, he has to adjust to Romney's "zone defense" (flip flops and lies) and go hard in Game 2. He needs to show that he wants to win this chip and be back to back champ.
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Diablos said:
Like every Mass. voter said there's no way Brown would win against Coakley.

Just sayin'.
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To be fair I was in the Mass. area at that time, and I was the lone voice in the wind preaching the opposite.

I don't get the same sense of an Obama loss this time yet, but at the same time, I'm not in an area where I can fairly ascertain whether he would lose or not. My state now is already in the tank for Romney.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
fwiw i was chicken littling out in ohio in 2010 on account of strickland, fisher, and half the dems in the house races being down

don't think i made any kind of national predictions but i definitely called most of this state right that year

there is absolutely no sense that romney's winning this state from anything i've seen. voter suppression would have to wipe out a statistically significant amount of the total vote for it to even be in doubt, and they simply don't have the power for that now.
 
A

Allard

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Right, and I think Obama's lead is already baked into Iowa and Ohio that it'll be enough to get him re-elected regardless of what happens.

I just felt much more comfortable when he had a solid lead in Virginia and New Hampshire, and a small-but-significant one in Florida and Colorado.

At least NC is a toss-up again on TPM's poll aggregate.

Also, Reuters tightened up. Romney now leads by 1 - he led by 3 yesterday. Biden won the debate 42-35.

I think it's safe to call the national vote a tie at the moment with Obama maintaining an advantage in the swing states.
Click to expand...

The most disappointing thing to me about the race tightening isn't that I think Obama has a chance to lose (Like you said, Ohio is the firewall, I don't see him losing that) but it denies Obama the ability to slaughter the Romney and the Republican campaign so badly they are forced to rethink how exactly they are going to make themselves electable again. It stays close we are in for another 4 years of the obstructionist crap, we might still be in for it if he won by that margin, but we also stood an equal chance of the republican caucus finally turning on the tea party wing of the party.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Allard said:
The most disappointing thing to me about the race tightening isn't that I think Obama has a chance to lose (Like you said, Ohio is the firewall, I don't see him losing that) but it denies Obama the ability to slaughter the Romney and the Republican campaign so badly they are forced to rethink how exactly they are going to make themselves electable again. It stays close we are in for another 4 years of the obstructionist crap, we might still be in for it if he won by that margin, but we also stood an equal chance of the republican caucus finally turning on the tea party wing of the party.
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It still might cool some heads. Democrats look favored to retain the Senate and even make gains, while there's plenty of low-hanging fruit in the House that wouldn't get them back in the majority but would give Boehner less wiggle room.

I think if Obama wins and Republicans in Congress are still like "Nope, not gonna compromise" we'll finally see public opinion turn hard against Republicans.
 
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